RBA to keep interest rates on hold
The CAMA RBA Shadow Board believes the RBA will keep the current interest rate on hold at 2% due to a weakening outlook for the global economy and shaky financial markets.
According to the CAMA RBA Shadow Board, due to the latest estimates of inflation at 1.5%, below the RBA’s target band of 2-3%, and delayed action by the US Fed, 72% of Shadow Board members believe the RBA will keep rates as they are.
The said the Australian property market is still looking strong, with the construction PMI surging to 53.8 in August, from 47.1 in July.
"However, in the same month building permits have fallen by nearly 7%. The local stock market has been suffering considerable losses, the S&P/ASX200 closing below 5000 earlier this week. With heightened uncertainty affecting global capital markets, it is unlikely domestic share prices will rebound significantly," it said.
"The Federal Reserve Bank has delayed the highly anticipated increase in the federal funds rate, citing low inflationary pressure and fragile capital markets. Delayed action by the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce the pressure to increase the domestic cash rate. In Europe, attention has shifted from the Greek debt crisis to the unabating refugee crisis. China’s economy continues to slow, with its manufacturing sector contracting for the second month in a row. Many experts are now expecting China’s GDP growth to fall to 6%. Global capital markets continue to pose threats.
"The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 2% equals 25% (27% in September). The estimated need for an interest rate increase lies at 62% (65% in September), while the need for a rate decrease is estimated at 13% (8% in September). A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence in a required cash rate increase equals 68% (six percentage points down from September), in a required cash rate decrease 14% (9% in September) and in a required hold of the cash rate 18% (unchanged)."