Interest Rates

Commentary by CoreLogic's&nbsp;Head of Residential Research Australia Eliza Owen

Today’s CPI results for the December quarter showed inflation has fallen once again, from 5.4% in September to 4.1%.

This marks the fourth consecutive quarter where inflation has declined on an annual basis, and the December result is below the 4.5% forecast made by the RBA&nbsp;last November.

Falling inflation reflects softer demand in the economy, with weakness showing up in&nbsp;retail trade, a slight&nbsp;fall in job vacancies&nbsp;and a&nbsp;gradual rise in unemployment&nbsp;from lows in late 2022.

But the good news about falling inflation is in its implications for monetary policy. The more inflation comes in under expectations, the firmer the case for interest rates remaining on hold next week, and coming down later this year.

A reduction in interest rates is likely to boost housing demand. As seen in the rental market, fundamental demand for housing is very strong, but demand for home purchases has been influenced by high interest costs and limited borrowing capacity.

The RBA would probably not consider more exuberance in the housing market an ideal scenario if interest rates comes down. However,&nbsp;established dwelling purchases do not feed&nbsp;directly into inflation measures, and other macroprudential tools can still be used to ensure housing lending remains prudent.

<h2>Housing measures in the CPI</h2>

Housing makes up around 22% of the CPI basket that is used to calculate inflation over time (in fact housing has the largest weighting of all components within the CPI calculation). The biggest sub-components of the housing measure are the change in the cost of newly constructed dwellings and major renovations by owner-occupiers, and the change in rents paid to landlords.

For the purchase of new homes, the CPI measure eased to 5.1%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter and a peak of 20.7% in the year to September 2022. While the rate of increase is easing, residential construction remains a substantial contributor to inflation overall, and was the most significant contributor to inflation in the quarter overall. High labour and material costs continue to put pressure on the price of new homes.

Annual growth in the rent component of CPI was 7.3% in the December quarter. The annual change in the rent component of CPI has reduced from 7.6% in the September quarter, marking the first signs of rent inflation easing in two-and-a-half years. Historically, growth in the CoreLogic rent value index has been a leading indicator for the rent component of CPI. Given CoreLogic rent value growth peaked in early 2023, it is not surprising to see early signs of easing in growth of rent paid, but at 7.3%, annual growth is still well above the pre-COVID decade average of 2.3%.

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One thing to note about CPI measures is that it captures the change in goods and services across the combined capital cities market. CoreLogic rent values for the combined&nbsp;regional&nbsp;market of Australia have seen a marked decline in annual growth that far outweighs what has been seen in the capitals, down to 4.3% in 2023 (from a peak of 13.4% in the year to August 2021).

<h2>What’s the takeaway?</h2>

Inflation is still well above the RBA target range of 2-3%, but it is moving in the right direction, and it is falling faster than anticipated. The economic pain Australian households are feeling is working to unwind inflation, and firms up the case for interest rates to start&nbsp;falling&nbsp;some time this year.

Housing contributes a lot to high inflation through rent paid and the cost of new dwellings, but even these indicators are moving in the right direction. The rate of increase in rents paid is finally slowing, suggesting some hope for tenants that the rental market could turn a corner in 2024, which also indicated by CoreLogic rent measures.

Easing cost of living pressures should help to support an improvement in consumer sentiment, which has been holding in deeply pessimistic territory since mid-2022.&nbsp; High cost of living pressures and high interest rates have been the key factors holding sentiment close to recessionary lows. It's likely the lower than forecast inflation outcome for the December quarter, alongside a growing expectation of rate cuts later this year will help to lift consumer attitudes. If that is the case, we should expect housing activity to follow suit later this year.

Urban Editorial

Inflation drops in December quarter, consumer attitude likely to change later this year: CoreLogic

Australia&rsquo;s biggest bank, CBA, has increased its 2- and 4- year fixed home loan rates by 0.05 per cent for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest. 
&nbsp; 
It is the third time CBA has hiked its 4-year fixed rate this year, but the first time the bank has hiked its 2-year rate for owner-occupiers.

&ldquo;CBA is factoring in a rise in the cost of funding over the next couple of years, particularly now the RBA&rsquo;s term funding facility has closed.&rdquo; 
&nbsp; 
A recent economic insights report from CBA shows around half of its new owner-occupier loans settled in June were fixed, with the two-year rate the most popular. 
&nbsp; 
&ldquo;Despite today&rsquo;s hikes, CBA still has one rate under 2 per cent &ndash; the bank is not going to let go of that easily,&rdquo; said RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall. 
&nbsp; 
&ldquo;CBA&rsquo;s two-year rate was extremely competitive and attracting significant interest. By keeping it just under 2 per cent, the bank is trying to keep momentum going at a more sustainable price,&quot; she said. 
&nbsp; 
Analysis of the RateCity.com.au database shows over the last two months, there have been more hikes than cuts in every fixed rate category with the exception of 1-year rates. 
&nbsp; 
But ME Bank has cut rates across a few home loans from early August, while boosting its refinance cashback offer to $3,000.

The cuts were across its two-year fixed and variable home loan range.

The two-year fixed rate Member Package home loan was cut by 20 basis points to 1.89% p.a. (3.17% p.a. comparison rate*) - a &quot;record low&quot; for the lender.

This particular comparison rate applies to owner occupier borrowers with 80% LVR i.e. a 20% deposit, paying principal &amp; interest.&nbsp;

The same advertised rate applies to other LVRs in the product line, but different comparison rates apply.

A number of other home loans - both fixed and variable - with different LVRs were also cut by between 5 and 31 basis points.

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, RateCity advise the opposite is happening in the variable rate market.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
RateCity.com.au home loan database analysis shows 49 lenders have cut at least one variable rate in the past two months while 10 lenders have hiked variable rates in that time.

The vast majority of variable rate cuts are reserved for new customers, not existing ones, RateCity research director, Sally Tindall, said.

&ldquo;Variable rates are at record lows, however, most of these deals are reserved for new customers, not existing ones, unless you specifically ask,&rdquo; she said. 
&nbsp; 
&ldquo;Before you call, check what rate your bank is giving new customers for the same home loan, but also find out what other lenders have on offer.

&ldquo;If you are paying significantly more than a new customer, pick up the phone and ask your bank &lsquo;why?&rsquo;.

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&nbsp; 
&ldquo;If you have a good track record of paying down your debt, and the bank thinks you might switch to a more competitive lender, they&rsquo;re likely to play ball. 
&nbsp; 
&ldquo;A lot of people think a handful of basis points won&rsquo;t make much of a difference, but if the discount is permanent, then the savings can potentially run into the thousands in just a few years,&rdquo; she said.

ME has also increased its cashback offer to $3,000 for externally-refinanced home loans.

The new lending amount must be minimum of $250,000.

Eligible refinancers must apply by Friday 27 August inclusive, and settle by Friday 29 October.

ME Bank CEO Adam Crane said the cuts would assist borrowers &quot;looking to maximise their borrowing in a challenging property market.&quot;

In February, ME Bank merged with Bank of Queensland with the deal expected to be finalised this month.

But ME Bank cut rates across a few home loans, while boosting its refinance cashback offer to $3,000

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Home loan mortgage rate rises continue

While the value of new loans dipped this month, refinancing has skyrocketed to an all-time high in June.

Latest figures from the ABS show the total value of refinanced loans hit $16.24 billion in June, up $1.37 billion in just one month, in seasonally adjusted terms.

That $16.24 billion figure is made up of a record&nbsp;$10.84 billion&nbsp;from owner occupier&#39;s refinancing, up 112% on a year ago, and&nbsp;$5.41 billion from investors, up 67% year on year.

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Refinancing has risen sharply in recent months, fuelled by record low rates. COVID has also prompted many families overhaul their finances.

In the past 12 months, $151.12 billion worth of mortgages have been refinanced, in seasonally adjusted terms.

RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said the record high in refinancing in June suggested mortgage holders were racing to lock in low rates in case they rise.

&ldquo;At the start of COVID, we saw a spike in refinancing as people rushed to lock in a competitive rate. COVID was a wake-up call for people to get their finances in order, and banks were at the ready, handing out some of the lowest rates in history,&rdquo; she said.

&ldquo;Over a year later and we&rsquo;ve now hit a new record high, although this time, the surge is more likely to be fuelled by a fear of missing out.&quot;

&ldquo;In the last five months, dozens of lenders, including the big four banks, have hiked many of their longer-term fixed rates. Taking these record-low fixed rates off the table has been the push some people needed to refinance,&quot; she added.

The latest figures from the ABS show the total value of refinanced loans hit $16.24 billion in June, a new record high

jordan_55689

Mortgage refinancing is hitting record highs: RateCity

Almost three-quarters of variable borrowers who asked for a rate cut, got one, a new survey has found.&nbsp;

In a RateCity.com.au survey of over 1,000 mortgage holders, of those on a variable rate, 52 per cent haggled with their bank for a lower rate. Over 73 per cent of these people were successful in getting at least one rate cut.

A rate reduction of 0.25 per cent could save the average mortgage holder $1,241 in interest after one year and $3,656 after three years. This is based on a $500,000 loan balance with 25 years remaining.

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, the opposite is happening in the variable rate market.&nbsp;

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RateCity.com.au home loan database analysis:

<ul>
	<li>49 lenders have cut at least one variable rate in the past two months.</li>
	<li>10 lenders have hiked variable rates in that time.</li>
	<li>The vast majority of variable rate cuts are reserved for new customers, not existing ones.</li>
</ul>

RateCity research director, Sally Tindall, said while the RBA is not expected to move the cash rate tomorrow, one phone call could potentially save the average variable rate mortgage holder thousands.

&ldquo;Variable rates are at record lows, however, most of these deals are reserved for new customers, not existing ones, unless you specifically ask,&rdquo; she said.

&ldquo;A lot of people think a handful of basis points won&rsquo;t make much of a difference, but if the discount is permanent, then the savings can potentially run into the thousands in just a few years.&quot;

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, the opposite is happening in the variable rate market

Three out of four mortgage holders who asked for a rate cut, got one: RateCity 

CBA has&nbsp;hiked its 3-year fixed rate for owner-occupiers in a further sign that Australia may soon see the end of ultra-low fixed rates.

Australia&rsquo;s largest bank has increased both its 3&nbsp;and 4-year fixed rates for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest by 0.05 per cent, as well as increasing some interest-only loans by 0.10 per cent.

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This follows hikes of 0.20 per cent by CBA in March to its 4- and 5- year fixed rates. CBA now only has one rate under 2 per cent &ndash; fixed for 2-years.

CBA home loan changes for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest:

<ul>
	<li>
	3-year fixed rates have been hiked from 2.14% to 2.19%, an increase of&nbsp;0.05%
	</li>
	<li>
	4-year fixed rates&nbsp;have been hiked from 2.19% to 2.24%, an increase of&nbsp;0.05%
	</li>
</ul>

RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said CBA has become the first major lender to increase its 3-year fixed rate from the bank&rsquo;s record low.

&ldquo;Today&rsquo;s rate hikes might be small, but they point to a fixed rate market that&rsquo;s starting to rise,&rdquo; she said.

&ldquo;When CBA hiked its four-year rate in March, a flurry of lenders followed in its wake. We expect the same thing will happen with three-year rates in coming months.

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&ldquo;Banks are anticipating a rise in the cost of funding over the next few years, with the next cash rate hike expected in 2024, if not earlier, and the end of the RBA&rsquo;s term funding facility in just over one month.

&ldquo;The funding, which offers banks cheap money fixed for three years, has helped lenders offer record low rates to its customers. When the funding wraps up, many banks are likely to recalibrate their rates,&rdquo; she said.

This follows hikes of 0.20 per cent by CBA in March to its 4 and 5-year fixed rates in a further sign that Australia may soon see the end of ultra-low fixed rates

CBA has hiked its 3 and 4-year fixed interest rates

RBA Governor Philip Lowe&#39;s meeting statement

At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets of 10&nbsp;basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program.

The global economy is continuing to recover from the pandemic and the outlook is for strong growth this year and next. The recovery remains uneven, though, and some countries are yet to contain the virus. Global trade in goods has picked up strongly and commodity prices are mostly higher than at the start of the year. However, inflation remains low and below central bank targets.

Sovereign bond yields have been steady recently after increasing earlier in the year due to the positive news on vaccines and the additional fiscal stimulus in the United States. Inflation expectations have lifted from near record lows to be closer to central banks&#39; targets. The 3-year government bond yield in Australia is at the Board&#39;s target of 10&nbsp;basis points and lending rates for most borrowers are at record lows. The Australian dollar remains in the upper end of the range of recent years.

The economic recovery in Australia has been stronger than expected and is forecast to continue. This recovery is especially evident in the strong growth in employment, with the unemployment rate falling further to 5.6&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in March and the number of people with a job now exceeding the pre-pandemic level.

The Bank&#39;s central scenario for GDP growth has been revised up further, with growth of 4&frac34;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent expected over 2021 and 3&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over 2022. A pick-up in business investment is expected and household spending will be supported by the strengthening in balance sheets over the past year. The unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline, to be around 5&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent at the end of this year and around 4&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent at the end of 2022.

Despite the strong recovery in economic activity, the recent CPI data confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued in most parts of the Australian economy. A pick-up in inflation and wages growth is expected, but it is likely to be only gradual and modest. In the central scenario, inflation in underlying terms is expected to be 1&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in 2021 and 2&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in mid&nbsp;2023. In the short term, CPI inflation is expected to rise temporarily to be above 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in the June quarter because of the reversal of some&nbsp;COVID-19-related price reductions.

Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

At its July meeting, the Board will consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond for the 3-year yield target or to shift to the next maturity, the November 2024 bond. The Board is not considering a change to the target of 10&nbsp;basis points. At the July meeting, the Board will also consider future bond purchases following the completion of the second $100&nbsp;billion of purchases under the government bond purchase program in September. The Board is prepared to undertake further bond purchases to assist with progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation. The Board places a high priority on a return to full employment.

The date for final drawings under the Term Funding Facility is 30&nbsp;June 2021. Given that financial markets in Australia are operating well, the Board is not considering a further extension of this facility. Authorised deposit-taking institutions have drawn $100&nbsp;billion so far and a further $100&nbsp;billion is currently available. Given the facility provides funding for 3&nbsp;years, it will continue to support low funding costs in Australia until mid&nbsp;2024.

The Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range. For this to occur, the labour market will need to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently. This is unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest.

The RBA kept the official cash rate at record lows at its May meeting

Joel Robinson

Housing markets strengthen further in all major markets: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's May 2021 meeting statement

The RBA maintained its current policy settings at its May meeting, keeping the official cash rate at a record low 0.1 per cent.

RBA governor Philip Lowe said housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets.

&quot;Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers,&quot; Mr Lowe said.

&quot;Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.&quot;

The RBA stood by their view that rates won&#39;t likely change until 2024. Around&nbsp;65 per cent of experts surveyed in Finder&#39;s monthly RBA Cash Rate Survey believe there won&#39;t be any rate change until 2023.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver is one who believes a rate change will come before 2024.

&quot;While&nbsp;the economy is recovering faster than expected, the RBA is still a long way away from seeing its stated requirements for a rate hike &ndash; being a tight jobs market, wages growth well above 3% and actual inflation sustainably within the 2-3% target range,&quot; Oliver said.

&quot;A rate hike is still a fair way off although I think it will come before the RBA&rsquo;s expectation for &lsquo;2024 at the earliest&rsquo;.&rdquo;

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The clear&nbsp;message from the RBA however&nbsp;hasn&#39;t stopped banks changing their fixed rates, with Westpac, including their subsidiary banks including St George, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA, lifting their four-year fixed from 1.89 per cent to 2.19 per cent. They also raised their five-year fixed to 2.49 per cent.

The four-year rise copied the move by CBA in March, however CBA reduced its one and two-year fixed rates at the same time.

UHomeLoan also raised their three-year fixed by 10 basis points to 1.85 per cent.

&ldquo;This sudden wave of lenders increasing longer-term rates and decreasing shorter-term rates reveals a strategy to lock their customers in for shorter time periods,&quot; Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder said.

&ldquo;This can be seen as a bet on variable rates increasing sooner than expected. It also reveals that the tide could be turning on our historically low fixed home loan rate environment.&quot;

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver is one who believes a rate change will come before 2024.

RBA hold rates at May meeting

While experts agree the RBA is unlikely to increase the cash rate for a while yet, this doesn&#39;t mean mortgage holders can rule out an out-of-cycle rate hike.&nbsp;

UBank announced an out-of-cycle move late last week, increasing its 3-year fixed rate from a near market-leading 1.75% to 1.85% (an increase of 10 basis points). Westpac also bumped up its fixed-term rates last Friday.&nbsp;

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If a homeowner with the average mortgage of $495,420* experienced a rate hike of 25 basis points from the current average variable rate of 4.27% to 4.52%, they would need to pay an extra $878 per year.&nbsp;

Over the course of a 30-year loan, this would cost them an extra $26,330 in interest.&nbsp;

Finder&rsquo;s Consumer Sentiment Tracker, a survey of 7,191 mortgage holders, found a monthly raise of $200 or less would cause financial distress for two in five mortgage holders (41%).

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Cooke said that while the cash rate isn&rsquo;t going anywhere, that doesn&rsquo;t mean home loan rates will stay put.

&ldquo;The last time the cash rate was held for an extended period of 34 months, banks changed their interest rates on average 7 times &ndash; 5 of which were increases.&quot;

&ldquo;It&rsquo;s important that homeowners factor in potential rate increases when applying for a mortgage &ndash; keeping a cushion in your budget can keep your budget from getting dicey down the track,&rdquo; Cooke said. &nbsp;

While experts agree the RBA is unlikely to increase the cash rate for a while yet, this doesn't mean mortgage holders can rule out an out-of-cycle rate hike

Rate hikes could leave mortgage holders stranded with excess interest

Fourteen lenders have hiked their four-year fixed rates in the wake of CBA&rsquo;s controversial rate hike a month ago today.

By contrast, just 1 lender has cut its 4-year rate in this time, a sign that four-year fixed rates might not be at record lows for much longer.

RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said record low four-year fixed rates might not be around for much longer.

<img alt="" height="314" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rate_hikes.jpg" width="889" />

&ldquo;With the RBA&rsquo;s term funding facility now in its final stretch and the next cash rate hike firming up for early 2024, if not before, the writing is on the wall for ultra-low four- and five-year fixed rate loans,&rdquo; she said.

&ldquo;So far Australia&rsquo;s second largest bank, Westpac, has kept its four-year fixed loan at a record low of 1.89 per cent, but it&rsquo;s hard to see this rate sticking around for long.&quot;

&ldquo;The idea of paying under 2 per cent interest until 2025 is an incredibly attractive proposition for many homeowners, but that doesn&rsquo;t automatically make it a good idea. Take the time to work out what type of loan suits your finances.&quot;

&ldquo;Fixed loans come with extra restrictions such as caps on extra repayments, typically no offset account and break fees if you want to get out early.&quot;

&ldquo;One option is to split your loan so it is part fixed and part variable, which typically lets you make extra repayments on the variable portion.&quot;

&ldquo;Money might be cheap now but in a few years&rsquo; time it&rsquo;s likely to be a very different story, provided the economic recovery stays on track, particularly for anyone coming off a fixed rate,&rdquo; she said.

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Rates on the rise following CBA's hike last month

<html><body>
Expert Observer

At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program.

The rollout of vaccines is supporting the recovery of the global economy, although the recovery is uneven. While there are still considerable uncertainties regarding the outlook, the central case has improved. Global trade has picked up and commodity prices are mostly higher than at the start of the year. Inflation remains low and below central bank targets.

Sovereign bond yields have increased over recent months due to the positive news on vaccines and the additional fiscal stimulus in the United States. Inflation expectations have also lifted from near record lows to be now closer to central banks' targets. The 3-year government bond yield in Australia is at the Board's target of 10 basis points and lending rates for most borrowers are at record lows. The Australian dollar remains in the upper end of the range of recent years.

The economic recovery in Australia is well under way and is stronger than had been expected. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8 per cent in February and the number of people with a job has returned to the pre-pandemic level. GDP increased by a strong 3.1 per cent in the December quarter, boosted by a further lift in household consumption as the health situation improved. The recovery is expected to continue, with above-trend growth this year and next. Household and business balance sheets are in good shape and should continue to support spending.

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Nevertheless, wage and price pressures are subdued and are expected to remain so for some years. The economy is operating with considerable spare capacity and unemployment is still too high. It will take some time to reduce this spare capacity and for the labour market to be tight enough to generate wage increases that are consistent with achieving the inflation target. In the short term, CPI inflation is expected to rise temporarily because of the reversal of some COVID-19-related price reductions. Looking through this, underlying inflation is expected to remain below 2 per cent over the next few years.

Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in most markets. Housing credit growth to owner-occupiers has picked up, with strong demand from first-home buyers. In contrast, investor credit growth remains subdued. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

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The Board remains committed to the 3-year government bond yield target of 10 basis points. Later in the year it will consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond or to shift to the next maturity. The initial $100 billion government bond purchase program is almost complete and the second $100 billion program will commence next week. Beyond this, the Bank is prepared to undertake further bond purchases if doing so would assist with progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation. Authorised deposit-taking institutions have drawn $95 billion under the Term Funding Facility and have access to a further $95 billion. Since the start of 2020, the RBA's balance sheet has increased by around $215 billion.

These various monetary measures are continuing to help the economy by keeping financing costs very low, contributing to a lower exchange rate than otherwise, and supporting the supply of credit and household and business balance sheets. Together, monetary and fiscal policy are contributing to the recovery in aggregate demand and the pick-up in employment.

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The Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions until its goals are achieved. The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.
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