The Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games are already shaping the future of the Sunshine Coast, with surging demand for homes at <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/sol-by-walker-maroochydore-first-ave-maroochydore">SOL by Walker</a> in the Maroochydore City Centre driven by the Queensland &nbsp;Government’s roadmap to 2032.&nbsp;

Demand for the apartment collection at SOL by Walker has soared with more than half of the first release already secured, reinforcing strong buyer confidence in the region’s future.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=319846]

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/walker-corporation">Walker Corporation</a> Group Executive of Development Peter Saba said the team has seen strong enquiries &nbsp;for homes in the heart of the City Centre.&nbsp;

“The Queensland Premier’s recent announcement, including the proposed Maroochydore Horizon Centre &nbsp;precinct in their Brisbane 2032 Olympics Plan will provide a major boost to residents and businesses in the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/maroochydore-qld-4558">Maroochydore</a> City Centre and the entire Sunshine Coast region,” Saba said.&nbsp;

“The flow on effect is already being felt with many buyers looking to secure their future home or investment &nbsp;in SOL by Walker as a prime opportunity to live in one of Australia’s most exciting coastal cities, capitalising &nbsp;on the region’s liveability, accessibility and world-class infrastructure plans.”&nbsp;

“We are seeing a cross section of buyers purchase at SOL by Walker, from First Home Buyers to professional &nbsp;couples and families looking for exceptional quality and high-end amenities, along with great access to a brand-new City Centre and all just minutes from the beautiful beaches of the Sunshine Coast.”

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=319848]

The proposed landmark $1 billion Horizon Centre development will feature a multi-purpose arena, 1,400-bed athlete village and a five-star hotel, delivering a long-lasting Olympic and Paralympic legacy for the Sunshine Coast.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/walker-corp-continue-sunshine-coast-evolution-with-olympic-scale-sporting-precinct">The Horizon Centre</a> will establish a vibrant civic, cultural and entertainment precinct integrated with the new WAVE transport system which will run through the Maroochydore City Centre and into the Sunshine Coast Airport.&nbsp;

The next-generation transport solution ensures SOL by Walker residents enjoy seamless access to key destinations across the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane, making city living more convenient than ever.&nbsp;

<img alt="Horizon Centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0122dd90-68c0-4e22-ab93-fc2f15f930c8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Artist%27s%20impression%201%20-%20Cultural%20Precinct.jpeg?VersionId=dSJ70tmAyM_MonhAZhm122ugeIjLBjlF" />

“The Horizon Centre precinct will not only host Games action but will provide a lasting post-Games legacy, including a high-quality restaurant and entertainment district providing the Sunshine Coast with a world-leading venue for concerts, events and cultural experiences well beyond 2032,” Saba said.&nbsp;

SunCentral CEO Amanda Yeates said Maroochydore City Centre has become an economic powerhouse for the Sunshine Coast.

“In 10 years, we have seen Maroochydore City Centre transformed from a golf course to the makings of a real city, and with incredible projects underway all around us at SOL by Walker, 50 First Avenue, Maroochy Private Hospital and now new legacy infrastructure, the next decade is shaping up to be even bigger,” Ms Yeates said.&nbsp;

Maroochydore Chamber of Commerce President Brendan Bathersby welcomed the major boost for the region.&nbsp;

“There has never been a more exciting time to be on the Coast, with major legacy infrastructure shaping our future, boosting the local economy and anchoring Maroochydore City Centre as a connected, world-class city for generations to come,” Bathersby said.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147777]

Joel Robinson

Olympic infrastructure fuels residential boom in Maroochydore City Centre

Ahead of the Australian federal election in early May, both the Labor and Liberal parties have announced their plans to tackle Australia's housing crisis, if elected.

Their approaches reflect broader ideological divides—Labor leaning toward government-backed initiatives and equity access, while the Liberals counter with a market-based approach focused on deregulation, migration control, and leveraging super savings.

<h2>Labor’s Housing Vision: Build Big and Back Buyers</h2>

The Albanese Government has laid out an ambitious housing reform agenda with a two-pronged focus: enabling easier access to homeownership and ramping up housing supply.

5 per cent Deposit Guarantee for All First Home Buyers

At the heart of Labor’s policy is a major expansion of the Home Guarantee Scheme. The government will guarantee part of the loan for any first home buyer, allowing them to purchase a home with just a five per cent deposit and avoid Lenders Mortgage Insurance – regardless of their income. There are no caps on the number of places, and property price limits have been significantly raised.

"It means a Sydneysider can buy a $1 million apartment with a $50,000 deposit, or a Queenslander an $850,000 home with $42,500 upfront," the government announced.

Labor claims this initiative has already helped over 150,000 Australians step into homeownership sooner.

$10 Billion Housing Supply Boost

To address the long-term housing shortfall, Labor is investing $10 billion to build up to 100,000 new homes in partnership with state governments and developers. These homes will be reserved exclusively for first home buyers.

The government points to its broader $43 billion Homes for Australia Plan, which includes:

<ul>
	<li>55,000 social and affordable homes (28,000 already underway),</li>
	<li>A 45 per cent increase in rent assistance for one million low-income renters,</li>
	<li>Nationwide efforts to improve renters’ rights.</li>
</ul>

Labor also touts progress in easing builder shortages and increasing building approvals, positioning this as the biggest housing build since the post-WWII boom.

<h2>Liberal’s Alternative: Cut Red Tape, Fund Infrastructure, Manage Migration</h2>

The Coalition has framed Labor’s housing woes as the product of mismanagement, blaming high inflation, red tape, and an unsustainable migration surge.

Unlocking Land and Infrastructure

The Coalition pledges to unlock up to 500,000 new homes by investing $5 billion in essential infrastructure (water, sewerage, power) to make development-ready land viable.

They also propose:

<ul>
	<li>A freeze on changes to the National Construction Code for 10 years,</li>
	<li>Incentives for 400,000 apprentices and trainees to boost the building workforce,</li>
	<li>Deregistering the CFMEU to reduce union-driven costs and delays.</li>
</ul>

Supercharged Super Access

In a move targeting young Australians, the Liberals would allow first home buyers to access up to $50,000 of their superannuation to buy their first property. The withdrawn amount must be repaid upon selling the home to preserve retirement savings.

Migration Cuts to Ease Demand

The Coalition links housing demand pressures to record migration and pledges a dramatic overhaul:

<ul>
	<li>A two-year ban on foreign investors and temporary residents purchasing existing homes,</li>
	<li>A reduction in permanent migration to 140,000 per year (down from 185,000),</li>
	<li>Reforms to international student visa numbers and fees.</li>
</ul>

They claim these changes would free up 40,000 homes in the first year and over 100,000 in five years.

Economic Management to Tame Inflation

Finally, the Coalition connects housing affordability with monetary policy, arguing that Labor’s “wasteful spending” is fueling inflation and interest rates. By restoring economic discipline, they say, housing costs can be brought under control.

<h2 data-end="3855" data-start="3822">Key Contrasts at a Glance</h2>

<table data-end="5020" data-start="3857">
	<thead data-end="4002" data-start="3857">
		<tr data-end="4002" data-start="3857">
			<th data-end="3890" data-start="3857">Policy Area</th>
			<th data-end="3946" data-start="3890">Labor</th>
			<th data-end="4002" data-start="3946">Liberal</th>
		</tr>
	</thead>
	<tbody data-end="5020" data-start="4149">
		<tr data-end="4294" data-start="4149">
			<td data-end="4181" data-start="4149">Deposit Support</td>
			<td data-end="4238" data-start="4181">5% deposit with government loan guarantee</td>
			<td data-end="4294" data-start="4238">Access up to $50k super for deposit</td>
		</tr>
		<tr data-end="4439" data-start="4295">
			<td data-end="4327" data-start="4295">Housing Supply</td>
			<td data-end="4384" data-start="4327">100,000 homes via $10B investment</td>
			<td data-end="4439" data-start="4384">500,000 homes via $5B infrastructure fund</td>
		</tr>
		<tr data-end="4584" data-start="4440">
			<td data-end="4472" data-start="4440">Migration Impact</td>
			<td data-end="4529" data-start="4472">No cap changes announced</td>
			<td data-end="4584" data-start="4529">Cuts to migration and foreign property buyers</td>
		</tr>
		<tr data-end="4730" data-start="4585">
			<td data-end="4617" data-start="4585">Rental Support</td>
			<td data-end="4674" data-start="4617">45% increase in rent assistance; renter protections</td>
			<td data-end="4730" data-start="4674">No specific rental measures announced</td>
		</tr>
		<tr data-end="4875" data-start="4731">
			<td data-end="4763" data-start="4731">Construction Workforce</td>
			<td data-end="4820" data-start="4763">Addressing shortages with general industry support</td>
			<td data-end="4875" data-start="4820">400,000 new apprentices and SME incentives</td>
		</tr>
		<tr data-end="5020" data-start="4876">
			<td data-end="4908" data-start="4876">Red Tape &amp; Regulations</td>
			<td data-end="4965" data-start="4908">No construction code freeze mentioned</td>
			<td data-end="5020" data-start="4965">10-year freeze on code changes; union crackdown</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Both parties acknowledge the severity of the housing crisis, but their paths to solving it couldn’t be more different. As the nation approaches another federal election, housing will remain a central battleground – and voters will need to choose which vision best fits their dream of owning a home.

Both parties acknowledge the severity of the housing crisis, but their paths to solving it couldn’t be more different

Australian Federal Election 2025: How Labor and Liberal plan to fix the housing crisis

Until now, it has been nearly impossible to obtain a Passivhaus home without building one yourself.

C. Street Projects has collaborated with award-winning Neil Architecture to bring the world’s best standard for energy efficiency to Melbourne’s leafy Hawthorn.

These rare three-bedroom homes are continuously ventilated with fresh, filtered air, significantly reducing allergens and pollutants in the home.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112386 project_image_fid=338634]

Designed to maintain a comfortable 23 degrees during all seasons of the year while using 70 per cent less energy than a typical Victorian home, the Passivhaus-certified homes are also incredibly quiet, thanks to triple-glazed windows, straw panel insulation, and intelligent airtight membranes. Additionally, they are equipped with EV chargers, PV solar, and battery storage, operating as net zero energy buildings for the ultimate sustainable lifestyle.

Kin Seng Choo and Michael Robertson, the duo behind C. Street Projects, have spent the last five years developing a method and design approach to scaling certified Passivhaus projects suited to the unique challenges of Australian conditions.

“Australians should have access to sustainable homes built to global best practice. Turnkey homes certified to the Passivhaus standard provide that independent verification and surety of quality,” says Choo.

“Passivhaus certification is the exemplary benchmark for high-performance building, recognised globally. While relatively new in Australia, this model is well established in Europe, the United States and Canada. The guaranteed performance from its stringent certification process is a major selling point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112386 project_image_fid=338637]

C. Street is committed to improving the quality of buildings with international best practices and innovates approaches that pair architectural design with excellent performance.

“It has been a challenge to deliver Passivhaus certification consistently and reliably because there is a rigorous testing and commissioning process at the end.

We’ve worked tirelessly on our approach to ensure this can be done at scale. Living in a Passivhaus is an awesome experience. It will change your perspective on what’s important in a home – away from surface finishes, to focusing on what’s under the hood and what true comfort really means,” says Robertson.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112386 project_image_fid=338647]

Choo says great architecture and material finishes must be paired with energy-efficient design and the quality of execution.

"Building your own certified Passivhaus is daunting, but now <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/echo-hawthorn-360-auburn-road-hawthorn">ECHO</a> provides a brand new, turnkey solution available to the market. Buyers have a choice."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112386]

First certified Passivhaus homes in Australia complete in Hawthorn

Developer <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/figurehead">Figurehead Group</a> is offering to pay the full stamp duty for buyers who purchase an apartment at Osprey in Safety Beach before Easter 2025.&nbsp;

The limited-time incentive applies to newly completed residences at the Martha Cove development and represents a potential saving of up to $82,000, depending on the purchase price.

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/osprey-safety-beach-15-martha-cove-boulevard-safety-beach-vic-3936">Osprey</a> is now fully complete, allowing purchasers to settle and move in immediately.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138447 project_image_fid=290616]

Located at 15 Martha Cove Boulevard, Osprey is an award-winning apartment development delivered in collaboration between builder-developer Figurehead and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/wolveridge-architects">Wolveridge Architects</a>, renowned for their work across the Mornington Peninsula.

The residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with each apartment positioned to capture sea breezes and views of the surrounding coastal environment.&nbsp;

Interiors feature natural textures and tones, including timber finishes, breezeway paving, and soft green accents intended to reflect the local landscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138447 project_image_fid=290741]

A central landscaped courtyard sits at the core of the development, incorporating sculptural concrete elements inspired by the cliff faces of the peninsula’s shoreline.

Osprey has already attracted attention from local and Melbourne-based buyers, drawn to its rare harbourside location, thoughtful design, and strong investment potential.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138447 project_image_fid=290632]

Osprey offers 18 two and three-bedroom apartments, positioned close to the harbour at Martha Cove.&nbsp;

While primarily offering a harborside lifestyle, Osprey is located just a seven-minute drive from the sand at <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/safety-beach-vic-3936">Safety Beach</a> and only eight minutes from Mount Martha Public Park. With views over Port Phillip Bay and Arthur's Seat, the 53-hectare park offers extensive walking trails connecting the picnic area to the summit and viewing tower.

The project is positioned as part of a broader precinct renewal and is one of the few newly completed developments in the area currently offering incentives of this kind.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138447]

Buyers of completed apartments at Osprey in Safety Beach could save up to $82,000 if they purchase before Easter, with the developer covering the full cost of stamp duty.

Figurehead covers stamp duty at Osprey Safety Beach in pre-Easter sales offer

Following the strong sales success of the first tower, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/morris-property-group">Morris Property Group</a>&nbsp;has now released the apartments in the second tower of its new Broadbeach development, Crest Broadbeach.

The second tower introduces a fresh collection of two and three-bedroom apartments, which have already generated strong interest. Prices start from just under $1.2 million.

The first tower, which launched just over 12 months ago, is now more than 75 per cent sold.

Morris' in-house construction team is delivering both towers simultaneously. Construction is well underway, with the tower crane already installed on-site and excavation nearing completion on the fifth basement level. Both towers are scheduled for completion by mid-2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112024 project_image_fid=343235]

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/crest-broadbeach-13-armrick-avenue-broadbeach">Crest</a> is ideally positioned on the highly sought-after Armrick Avenue, a tightly held street that has seen surprisingly little apartment development despite the recent boom across Broadbeach. No developer has successfully delivered a high-rise on this exclusive street—until now.

Armrick Avenue offers two major advantages to both investors and owner-occupiers due to its proximity to Broadbeach Park, one of the suburb’s most cherished green spaces.

The park, across the road is home to the iconic Broadbeach Bowls Club, a community institution since the mid-1950s, and the long-standing Broadbeach Surf Life Saving Club, giving Crest residents doorstep amenity at two of Broadbeach's most popular social venues.

The proximity to the park also means Crest residents will enjoy protected, uninterrupted southern views, with the government-owned land of the park never to be built upon.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112024 project_image_fid=343113]

In addition to the prime location and surrounding amenity, Crest will also offer residents an impressive suite of on-site facilities. These include a fully equipped gym, a resort-style pool, and a barbecue and alfresco entertaining area.

According to data from MatterFact, Urban.com.au’s data partner, Crest has appealed to both investors and owner-occupiers alike. While the majority of enquiries have come from Queenslanders, interstate interest has remained consistently strong. In fact, enquiries from New South Wales have made up between 20 to 30 per cent of total enquiries since the beginning of 2024.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112024 project_image_fid=343256]

Crest marks Morris Property Group’s ninth apartment development in Broadbeach since entering the market in 2006 with their flagship project, Verve.

They recently completed their eighth project, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/malo-broadbeach-8-jubilee-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Malo Broadbeach</a>, nearby on Jubilee Avenue. Construction is also underway on their tenth Broadbeach project, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/maison-broadbeach-22-chelsea-avenue-broadbeach">Maison Broadbeach</a>, located just across Broadbeach Park on Chelsea Avenue.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112024]

Crest marks Morris Property Group’s ninth apartment development in Broadbeach since entering the market in 2006 with their flagship project, Verve

Morris releases second tower at Crest Broadbeach after tower one sales success

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

The following is the statement provided by Michele Bullock which can be <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-35.html">found here</a>.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Last month, the Board increased interest rates by 25&nbsp;basis points, following a period of four months where it had held interest rates steady. This decision reflected the Board’s view that progress in bringing inflation back to the target range of 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent was looking slower than earlier forecast. While the economy has been experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it was stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market had eased but remained tight. Housing prices were continuing to rise across the country as was the number of new mortgages. Given this, the Board judged that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer had risen and an increase in interest rates was therefore warranted to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.

The limited information received on the domestic economy since the November meeting has been broadly in line with expectations. The monthly CPI indicator for October suggested that inflation is continuing to moderate, driven by the goods sector; the inflation update did not, however, provide much more information on services inflation. Overall, measures of inflation expectations remain consistent with the inflation target. Wages growth picked up in the September quarter but this was expected given that it captured the earlier Fair Work Commission decision on award wages. Wages growth is not expected to increase much further and remains consistent with the inflation target, provided productivity growth picks up. Conditions in the labour market also continued to ease gradually, although they remain tight.

Higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy. The impact of the more recent rate rises, including last month's, will continue to flow through the economy. High inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Holding the cash rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labour market.

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. While there have been encouraging signs on goods inflation abroad, services price inflation has remained persistent and the same could occur in Australia. There also remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad. Domestically, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income.

Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Urban Editorial

RBA keeps rates on hold at final meeting of 2023

The full statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on its November Cup Day rate hike

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate target by 25&nbsp;basis points to 4.35&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent. It also increased the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances by 25&nbsp;basis points to 4.25&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago. The latest reading on CPI inflation indicates that while goods price inflation has eased further, the prices of many services are continuing to rise briskly. While the central forecast is for CPI inflation to continue to decline, progress looks to be slower than earlier expected. CPI inflation is now expected to be around 3½&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent by the end of 2024 and at the top of the target range of 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent by the end of 2025. The Board judged an increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.

The Board had held interest rates steady since June following an increase of 4&nbsp;percentage points since May last year. It had judged that higher interest rates were working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy. Furthermore, it had noted that the impact of the more recent rate rises would continue to flow through the economy. It had therefore decided that it was appropriate to hold rates steady to provide time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates so far. In particular, the Board had indicated that it would be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.

Since its August meeting, the Board has received updated information on inflation, the labour market, economic activity and the revised set of forecasts. The weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased. While the economy is experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it has been stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market have eased but they remain tight. Housing prices are continuing to rise across the country.

At the same time, high inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Given that the economy is forecast to grow below trend, employment is expected to grow slower than the labour force and the unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually to around 4¼&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent. This is a more moderate increase than previously forecast. Wages growth has picked up over the past year but is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up.

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. Services price inflation has been surprisingly persistent overseas and the same could occur in Australia. There are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income. And globally, there remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad.

Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Source: <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-30.html">www.rba.gov.au</a>

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent

RBA hike interest rates at Cup Day meeting

Property values across the country continued to decline over November, research from property data firm CoreLogic found, but there was a further ease in the speed of the declines.

Dwelling values (which incorporates both houses and units), contracted a further one per cent in November, driven by declines in Hobart (-2 per cent), Canberra (-1.2 per cent), and Sydney (-1 per cent).

Capital city housing markets declined -1.2 per cent, with Brisbane (-2.2 per cent), Hobart (-2 per cent) and Sydney (-1.5 per cent), feeling the declines the hardest.

Capital city units however dropped just -0.6 per cent. Hobart (-1.8 per cent), Sydney (-0.9 per cent) and Canberra (-0.8 per cent) the capital's the most affected in the unit market.

Declines however have continued to soften since August when the national index dropped by -1.6 per cent.

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the easing in the rate of decline is mostly emanating from the Sydney and Melbourne markets, but is also evident across many of the smaller capitals and most regional markets.&nbsp;

“Three months ago, Sydney housing values were falling at the monthly rate of -2.3 per cent. That has now reduced by a full percentage point to a decline of -1.3 per cent in November," Lawless said.&nbsp;

"In July, Melbourne home values were down -1.5 per cent over the month, with the monthly decline almost halving last month to -0.8 per cent.

“The rate of decline has also eased across the ACT (from a -1.7% fall in August), and is no longer accelerating in Brisbane. Most of the broad rest-of-state markets have also seen the pace of declines decelerate."

Lawless said that it is possible we are seeing the initial uncertainty around buying in a higher interest rate environment wearing off, while persistently low advertised stock levels have likely contributed to this trend towards smaller value falls. He does however note that housing risk remains skewed to the downside while interest rates are still rising and household balance sheets become more thinly stretched.

“There is still the possibility that the pace of declines could reaccelerate, especially if the current rate hiking cycle persists longer than expected.

"Next year will be a particular test of serviceability and housing market stability, as the record-low fixed rate terms secured in 2021 start to expire."

<h2>Melbourne Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Unit values across Melbourne dropped just -0.2 per cent across November, the lowest declines the Victorian capital has seen since May. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>It's stark comparison to the housing market, which dropped another -1 per cent.</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112174 project_image_fid=199593]

<ul>
	<li>Unit values are now -4.1 per cent down over 2022, almost half the declines felt in the housing market, now -8.1 per cent since the turn of the year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Melbourne unit value is now $597,000, and houses $759,000.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Sydney Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Unit values across Sydney dropped just -0.9&nbsp;per cent across November, the third highest of all the capital city markets. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Sydney houses dropped another -1.5 per cent in November.</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22748 project_image_fid=204929]

<ul>
	<li>Unit values are now -8.2 per cent down over 2022, which is double the declines in Melbourne. Houses in the Harbour capital are down -11.9 per cent in the same period. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Sydney unit value is now $781,000, and houses $1,025,000.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Brisbane Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Brisbane had the biggest divergence between the house and unit market in November 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Unit values across Brisbane dropped just -0.2&nbsp;per cent across November, the third best performing unit market across the capitals. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Brisbane houses however were the worst performer, down -2.2 per cent</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102309 project_image_fid=163977]

<ul>
	<li>The Brisbane unit market has been one of the biggest success stories of 2022, bucking the trend of the downturn. Values are still 7.1 per cent higher than they were at the start of the year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The Brisbane house market has also remained resilient, just ticking into negative territory, down -0.8 per cent this year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Brisbane unit value is now $492,000, and houses $798,000.</li>
</ul>

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the easing in the rate of decline is mostly emanating from the Sydney and Melbourne markets

Property downturn continues, but rate of decline softens again: CoreLogic

The RBA has hiked rates for the sixth month in a row, with the Tuesday meeting seeing rates rise by 0.25 per cent.

Three of the big four banks expected a half a percentage point rise, with just Commonwealth Bank predicting the 25 basis point rise.

The official cash rate is now at 2.6 per cent.

The RBA noted in their statement that, as is the case in most countries, inflation in Australia is too high.

"Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand relative to the ability of the economy to meet that demand is also playing a role," RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted in the announcement.

The RBA predicted a further increase in inflation over the months ahead, before it then declines back toward the two to three per cent range.

"The expected moderation in inflation next year reflects the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, recent declines in some commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates.

"Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case. The Bank’s central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 7¾ per cent over 2022, a little above 4 per cent over 2023 and around 3 per cent over 2024."

As for mortgages, Lowe noted that higher inflation and higher interest rates are putting pressure on household budgets, with the full effects of higher interest rates yet to be felt in mortgage payments.

"Consumer confidence has also fallen and housing prices are declining after the earlier large increases.," Lowe suggested.

"Working in the other direction, people are finding jobs, gaining more hours of work and receiving higher wages. Many households have also built up large financial buffers and the saving rate still remains higher than it was before the pandemic."

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said Aussies with a $500,000 mortgage will be paying almost $9,000 more a year in interest compared to just six months ago.

“Australians with a $500,000 mortgage will be forking out $735 more per month compared to what they were paying in April.&nbsp; 
 
“That’s a whopping amount of extra money to pay every month – especially when everyday items like groceries and petrol are skyrocketing in price."

The RBA noted in their statement that, as is the case in most countries, inflation in Australia is too high.



RBA hike interest rates by 0.25 per cent, points to high inflation

Affordability issues appeared to have curbed borrowing activity of first home buyers and owner occupiers, but not investor loans in September, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

The value of new home loans dropped for the second month in a row.

In September, $30 billion of new mortgages were settled, down 1.4 per cent from August, in seasonally-adjusted terms.

Owner-occupier lending dropped 2.7 percent from August.

Investor lending continued to climb, reaching its highest level since April 2015 with $9.62 billion in loans settled in September, up 1.4 per cent month-on-month.

Increased investor loan commitments were seen across most states, with particular strength in Queensland (up 4.2 per cent), South Australia (up 16.4 per cent) and Western Australia (up 7.3 per cent). Smaller rises in investor borrowing were seen in Victoria (up 1.4 per cent), New South Wales (up 0.1 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (up 1.0 per cent) and Tasmania (up 1.4 per cent). 

For the eighth conscutive month, the number of owner-occupier first home buyer loans fell, down 5.6 per cent in September, to be down 27.1 percent since the January peak.

Ratecity noted Victoria, in lockdown, led the retreat with the number of first home buyer loans dropping 16.7 percent in the month, while NSW dropped by 3.1 percent.

Western Australia fhbs had the largest rise of 5.9 percent, while Queensland rose 2.1 percent and South Australia rose 4.3 percent.

ABS head of finance and wealth, Katherine Keenan, said the average loan size for owner occupiers has grown, but the value of new loan commitments for owner-occupier housing fell for the fourth month in a row, to $20.7 billion in September.

"Affordability constraints are biting in the first home buyer space, with dwelling prices rising by over 20% on an annual basis," the Comm Bank said.

NSW owner occupiers borrowed an average of $750,000 in September which was a record high.

The big banks are all now applying stricter loan criteria on applications as of November 1 given lending requirements imposed by APRA.

There has been positive growth in investors taking on mortgages since October last year

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Investors return to property with six year borrowing high: ABS 

RBA Governor Statement

At its meeting today, the Board decided to:

maintain the cash rate target at 10&nbsp;basis points and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances of zero per&nbsp;cent

maintain the target of 10&nbsp;basis points for the April 2024 Australian Government bond

purchase government securities at the rate of $4&nbsp;billion a week and to continue the purchases at this rate until at least mid February 2022.

Prior to the Delta outbreak the Australian economy had considerable momentum. GDP increased by 0.7&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in the June quarter and by nearly 10&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over the year. Business investment was picking up and the labour market had strengthened. The unemployment rate had fallen below 5&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent and job vacancies were at a high level.

The recovery in the Australian economy has, however, been interrupted by the Delta outbreak and the associated restrictions on activity. GDP is expected to decline materially in the September quarter and the unemployment rate will move higher over coming months. While the outbreak is affecting most parts of the economy, the impact is uneven, with some areas facing very difficult conditions while others are continuing to grow strongly.

This setback to the economic expansion is expected to be only temporary. The Delta outbreak is expected to delay, but not derail, the recovery. As vaccination rates increase further and restrictions are eased, the economy should bounce back. There is, however, uncertainty about the timing and pace of this bounce-back and it is likely to be slower than that earlier in the year. Much will depend on the health situation and the easing of restrictions on activity. In our central scenario, the economy will be growing again in the December quarter and is expected to be back around its pre-Delta path in the second half of next year.

Notwithstanding the strong economic and labour market outcomes pre-Delta, wage and price pressures remain subdued. Over the year to the June quarter, the Wage Price Index increased by just 1.7&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Housing prices are continuing to rise, although turnover in some markets has declined following the virus outbreak. Housing credit growth has picked up due to stronger demand for credit by both owner-occupiers and investors. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank is monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

Very accommodative financial conditions will continue to support the recovery of the Australian economy. Borrowing rates are at record lows, sovereign bond yields are at very low levels and the exchange rate has depreciated over recent months. The fiscal responses by the Australian Government and the state and territory governments are also providing welcome assistance in supporting household and business balance sheets.

The Board&#39;s decision to extend the bond purchases at $4&nbsp;billion a week until at least February 2022 reflects the delay in the economic recovery and the increased uncertainty associated with the Delta outbreak. The Board will continue to review the bond purchase program in light of economic conditions and the health situation, and their implications for the expected progress towards full employment and the inflation target. These bond purchases, together with the low level of the cash rate, the yield target and the funding that has been provided under the Term Funding Facility, are providing substantial and ongoing support to the Australian economy.

The Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to achieve a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range. The central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024. Meeting this condition will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently.

RBA holds rates, turnover declines following the virus outbreak: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's September 2021 meeting statement

The RBA has held interest rates at a record low 0.1 per cent at its September meeting.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe&#39;s said that housing prices are continuing to rise, although turnover in some markets has declined following the virus outbreak.

&quot;Housing credit growth has picked up due to stronger demand for credit by both owner-occupiers and investors, Lowe noted.

&quot;Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank is monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.&quot;

In Finder.com.au&#39;s monthly RBA Survey, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said the lockdown and its hit to the economy&nbsp;has further delayed the time when the effective RBA conditions &ndash; full employment and 3% or more wages growth to sustain 2-3% inflation &ndash; will be met to justify a rate hike.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=103179 project_image_fid=167473]

Commentator Saul Eslake said he takes the RBA at its word&nbsp;when it says it won&#39;t begin tightening monetary policy until the labour market is sufficiently tight to generate wage inflation that&#39;s sufficiently strong to push &#39;underlying&#39; consumer price inflation sustainably into the 2-3% target range.

&quot;While I think that may well be sooner than the RBA&#39;s &lsquo;central case&rsquo; of 2024, I don&#39;t think it will be any earlier than mid-2023,&quot; Eslake says.

Dr Andrew Wilson from My Housing Market says that no change in fundamental economic weakness confirmed again with low wages growth despite robust labour market.

&quot;As usual &ndash; absolutely no plausible case on current data for higher rates over the foreseeable future &ndash; and then there is Covid.&quot;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102580 project_image_fid=167435]

New research from Finder reveals that over half of&nbsp;homeowners across the country&nbsp;are concerned about interest rates increasing in the near future.

Around15% fear they may not be able to make their repayments once rates creep up.

Finder.com.au&#39;s head of consumer research Graham Cooke says some homeowners may have purchased beyond their means in the midst of the housing market frenzy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22308 project_image_fid=75031]

&ldquo;The past 12 months have seen property prices explode as record numbers of Australians have fled into the housing market,&quot; Cooke says.

&ldquo;Low interest rates have encouraged many buyers to purchase earlier than they otherwise might have for fear of missing out.

&ldquo;But not all of them will have budgeted for their monthly repayments to go up if or before the cash rate increases,&rdquo; Cooke said.

Finder analysis reveals the average monthly mortgage payments in Sydney are worth 76% of the average worker&rsquo;s after-tax earnings &ndash; the highest in the country. Melbourne (57%) is not far behind, followed by Canberra (49%) and Hobart (49%). Perth is at the bottom of the list, with the average mortgage costing a more reasonable 35% of average earnings.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe's said that housing prices are continuing to rise, although turnover in some markets has declined following the virus outbreak

RBA leave cash rate on hold at September meeting

The RBA has held interest rates at a record low 0.1 per cent at its August meeting.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe&#39;s comments on the housing market were much the same, noting all markets continuing to strengthen, with prices rising in all major markets.

He did cite an increase in borrowing by investors, and that given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank is monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

The experts and economists surveyed in Finder.com.au&#39;s RBA Cash Rate Survey all called the cash rate hold, with 75 per cent predicting the increase won&#39;t happen until 2023.

Tony Makin of Griffith University was the lone expert predicting the rate to rise before 2022.

&quot;In coming months a clearer picture will emerge of underlying inflation trends both in the US and [in Australia]. The recent US inflation spike is unlikely to be temporary given the massive money supply increase, recovery from the pandemic, and substantial US fiscal expansion.&quot;

AMP Capital&#39;s Shane Oliver said the RBA is still a long way from meeting its conditions for a rate hike &ndash; namely inflation sustainably back in the 2&ndash;3% target range which will require full employment and wages growth sustainably above 3%. And the latest coronavirus outbreaks and lockdowns risk delaying progress towards its goals.

Over a third of experts (71%), called for a change in stamp duty.

They agree that changes need to be made to either stamp duty or government stimulus in order to help buyers enter the property market.

Just over half (54%) think that only stamp duty should be changed, while another third (29%) think neither should be changed.

Finder&#39;s insights manager Graham Cooke said an easing of stamp duty could reduce the burden for first time buyers and establish a more even playing field.

&ldquo;Stamp duty is essentially a tax that slows down the turnover of property. It discourages current&nbsp;homeowners from downsizing, which locks up some of the market. &ldquo;A long-term land tax would provide a fairer long-term solution, while adding liquidity to the housing market,&rdquo; Cooke said.

RBA holds rates at August meeting, experts call for stamp duty changes

RBA Governor Statement

The economic recovery in Australia has been stronger than was earlier expected. The recent outbreaks of the virus are, however, interrupting the recovery and GDP is expected to decline in the September quarter. The experience to date has been that once virus outbreaks are contained, the economy bounces back quickly. Prior to the current virus outbreaks, the Australian economy had considerable momentum and it is still expected to grow strongly again next year. The economy is benefiting from significant additional policy support and the vaccination program will also assist with the recovery.

The economic outlook for the coming months is uncertain and depends upon the evolution of the health situation and the containment measures. Beyond that, the Bank&#39;s central scenario is for the economy to grow by a little over 4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over 2022 and by around 2&frac12; per&nbsp;cent over 2023. This scenario is based on a significant share of the population being vaccinated by the end of this year and a gradual opening up of the international border from the middle of 2022. The Board also considered a range of other scenarios, with the main source of uncertainty being the health situation.

The labour market has recovered faster than expected, with the unemployment rate declining further to 4.9&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in June. Job vacancies have remained at a high level and there are reports of labour shortages in parts of the economy. Some increase in the unemployment rate is expected in the near term due to the current lockdowns, but most of the adjustment in the labour market is likely to take place through a reduction in hours worked and in participation. In the central scenario, the unemployment rate continues to trend lower next year, to be around 4&frac14; per&nbsp;cent at the end of 2022 and 4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent at the end of 2023.

The CPI inflation rate spiked to 3.8&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent for the year to the June quarter, largely reflecting the unwinding of some earlier&nbsp;COVID-19-related price declines. In underlying terms, inflation remains low, at around 1&frac34; per&nbsp;cent.

Looking forward, a pick-up in both wages growth and underlying inflation is expected, but this pick-up is likely to be only gradual. In the Bank&#39;s central scenario, it takes some years for the stronger economy to feed through into wage and price increases that are consistent with the inflation target. In underlying terms, inflation is expected to be 1&frac34; per&nbsp;cent over 2022 and 2&frac14; per&nbsp;cent over 2023. One source of uncertainty is the behaviour of wages and prices at the low levels of forecast unemployment, including because it is some decades since Australia has sustained an unemployment rate around 4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Housing markets have continued to strengthen, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, including first-home buyers. There has also been increased borrowing by investors. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank is monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

Domestic financial conditions remain very accommodative, sovereign bond yields have declined and the exchange rate has depreciated to around its lowest level this year, despite elevated levels of commodity prices. The recent fiscal responses by the Australian Government and the state and territory governments are also providing welcome support to the economy at a time of significant short-term disruption.

The Board remains committed to maintaining highly accommodative monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. Together, the low level of the cash rate, the bond purchase program, the yield target and the ongoing funding that has been provided under the Term Funding Facility are providing substantial support to the Australian economy in the face of lockdowns in parts of the country and the expected resumption of the economic expansion.

The Board will maintain its flexible approach to the rate of bond purchases. The program will continue to be reviewed in light of economic conditions and the health situation, and their implications for the expected progress towards full employment and the inflation target. The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range. The central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024. Meeting this condition will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently.

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