Brisbane’s booming unit market is going to narrowly miss out on recording 20 per cent gains over the calendar year.

However, the growth in value of units so far in 2024 is the best the Queensland capital has seen since 1988.

The value of units, which incorporates both apartments and townhouses, rose again in September, by 1.2 per cent, according to property data analytics firm CoreLogic.

Unit values in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/brisbane-qld">Brisbane</a> are now up 14.8 per cent over 2024, reaching a new median value of $661,000. The returns are the second best in the country, only behind Perth, which has already seen over 20 per cent gains.

<h2>What happened in Brisbane’s off the plan apartment market in September</h2>

It was more supply woes in Brisbane, with just the one notable launch of apartments across the region, albeit the planning pipeline is getting more and more robust.

That came from Windsor where local developer <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/carbone-developments">Carbone Developments</a> revealed <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/amado-windsor-38-grantson-street-windsor">Amado</a>, the developer's fifth apartment development in the area.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139074 project_image_fid=287525]

Set across six levels, Amado offers just 30 large-scale apartments targeting owner-occupiers, with a mix of two and three-bedroom layouts, alongside two penthouses that will provide panoramic views of Brisbane’s skyline.&nbsp;

Carbone Developments, known for its deep connection to Windsor, has integrated the restoration of a pre-1911 heritage-listed home into the project. Construction completion is expected in mid-2026.

Read more: <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/first-look-carbone-unveil-latest-windsor-apartment-development-amado">First look: Carbone unveil latest Windsor apartment development, Amado</a>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139074 project_image_fid=287533]

Density is coming to Brisbane, just not in a hurry.

There were approved for one of Brisbane's tallest apartment buildings at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/25-mary-street-brisbane">25 Mary Street</a>.

The <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada</a>-designed buildings will be one of Brisbane’s tallest apartment towers standing at 264 metres.

<img alt="Plans approved for one of Brisbane's tallest apartment towers by Koichi Takada" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202024-02-07%20at%2011.34.00%20am.png?VersionId=Z4HsfKAiIYafTqv6JAkbsjnPrKRmusLg" />

The 71-level structure, to be developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/ks-property">KS Property</a>, will feature 527 apartments and over 4,000 sqm of communal spaces, with a design inspired by natural forms, particularly the image of a tree trunk.&nbsp;

Read more: <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/plans-approved-for-one-of-brisbanes-tallest-apartment-towers-by-koichi-takada">Plans approved for one of Brisbane's tallest apartment towers by Koichi Takada</a>

Fortitude Valley is also expecting a rare new tower, with plans filed for a 28-level building on St Pauls Terrace, a key area bordering Spring Hill.&nbsp;

Designed by&nbsp;McFarland Architects, the tower is set to comprise 164 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments. The 1,152 sqm of communal space incorporates a gym on the podium level and a rooftop with a swimming pool, spa, rec rec room, barbecue facilities, and various seating areas.

<img alt="First look: Rare new apartment tower pitched for Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202024-09-18%20at%2012.57.24%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=WGSOZNjHfKDaDtjLPoOU.ktqgAYrGgtr" />

Just 14 one-bed apartments have been pitched. They'll feature alongside 48 two-beds, 62 three-beds, and 40 four-bedroom apartments.

Mewing said the residential breakdown delivers a diversity of housing product to cater for different life stages, needs, and living&nbsp;arrangements.

Read more: <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/first-look-rare-new-apartment-tower-pitched-for-fortitude-valley">First look: Rare new apartment tower pitched for Fortitude Valley</a>

Low density has been slated for Paddington, with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/core-property-partners">Core Property Partners</a> and P&amp;MV Constructions teaming up to propose a mixed-use precinct at 208-220 Given Terrace.&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Paddington's Given Terrace set for luxury makeover" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202024-09-04%20at%208.53.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=t4ha6OnH6Jmh8Jy7NBdjXxdtVblDkZ9N" />

The development will feature 12 luxury apartments and 31 short-stay accommodation suites.&nbsp;

A new pedestrian laneway will be added, enhancing connectivity and creating a civic space that celebrates the area's rich history dating back to the 19th century.&nbsp; 
This development aims to revitalise the commercial heart of Paddington, attracting both locals and visitors alike.

Read more: <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/first-look-paddingtons-given-terrace-set-for-luxury-makeover">First look: Paddington's Given Terrace set for luxury makeover</a>

Joel Robinson

City Beat October 2024: Brisbane unit boom continues as buyers line up

When designing its debut Gold Coast apartment development, developer Polycell tried to find a way to create a point of difference in what else was on offer in Broadbeach.

Their conclusion was to bring on not one, but two of Australia's most celebrated architects to design <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/the-rochester-143-surf-parade-broadbeach">The Rochester</a>, a sculptural 42-level tower in the heart of the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">booming suburb</a>.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112276 project_image_fid=211183]

BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenway said The Rochester has a really strong independent character.&nbsp;

“BDA’s philosophy is to create enduring architecture," Greenway said.

"The Rochester is different to other buildings in the Broadbeach precinct. Its unique form is more elegant and linear, with soft curves to the edges, that relate back to the more fluid parts of the beaches and the hinterland of the Gold Coast.

“Having a really simple floorplate, with elegant slight curves to the balconies, very horizontal lines, and vertical contrasting elements, makes it more timeless in the architecture. When people are moving along the esplanade, or up Surf Parade, they’ll see this clean, timeless line."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112276 project_image_fid=211186]

BDA Associate Patrik Pelikan said the overall experience of The Rochester has been none of trying to achieve excellence; almost like a club, that once you are part of it, it elevates you.

“Every apartment is orientated and crafted to its location within the building. We wanted to create an upmarket coastal feel, more refined and elegant through the detailing of the interior palette. So, we used high-end materials, in coastal tones – the whites, the creams, the sands, the timber. It’s about a series of little details and moments," Pelikan said.&nbsp;

“The entertainer’s kitchens are specifically designed for each unit, and they flow into the living room areas. The balconies have been meticulously crafted to provide beautiful views, but at the same time give you privacy.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112276 project_image_fid=211193]

The Rochester, now over 80 per cent sold, has 182 two and three-bedroom apartments across a 42-level tower at 143 Surf Parade.

Construction is underway, with completion slated for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112276]

BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenway said The Rochester has a really strong independent character

"It’s about a series of little details and moments": How The Rochester Broadbeach apartment development was designed

Since the pandemic hit Australia, there's arguably not been a suburb in Australia that's been more in vogue than <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>&nbsp;on the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/gold-coast-qld">Gold Coast</a>.

Data from Urban.com.au's new data product, <a href="https://industry.urban.com.au/data-insights">MatterFact</a>, showed that from 2020 to 2021, enquiry spiked 130 per cent, driven by local and interstate purchasers snapping up luxury beachfront apartments.

Enquiry levels returned to early pandemic levels in 2022, namely due to the fact several developments sold out quicktime, but the appetite to live in the coastal enclave did not abate, with search traffic to Palm Beach staying consistent. There was simply much more demand than there was supply.

Josh Foote's <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/ignite-projects">Ignite Projects</a> took just eight weeks to sell all 34 apartments at <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/cabana-1-nineteenth-avenue-palm-beach">Cabana Palm Beach</a>, where sale prices ranged from $1,775,000 to just over $5.5 million.

It was the same story with Melbourne-based <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/pask-group">Pask Group</a>. Launching during the pandemic, they sold out <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/esplanade-474-the-esplanade-palm-beach">The Esplanade</a>, named after its position on the dress circle street that runs down to Burleigh Heads. The 15 apartments on the beachfront sold between $3.2 million and over $7.1 million.

<a data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9d768898-933c-4167-8f8e-ae6c40dc09d8" href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/gold-coast-qld"><img alt="Palm Beach" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-09-25%20at%208.29.12%E2%80%AFAM_1.png?VersionId=mccK9ZKObftFJ.fHdFNSBFkGpLRuIqjt" /></a>

One of the main reasons southern dwellers descened on Palm Beach was how much it flew under the radar. The quiet neighbour of Burleigh Heads, Palm Beach had been void of new developments until the demand spurred by the pandemic to live on the Gold Coast became aparent, those from the southern states in particular had a narrow brief; Gold Coast, and as close to the beach as possible.

Palm Beach has been one of the most active suburbs for development site sales.

Since the start of 2021, around 25 per cent of total sales by site amalgamation and sales specialists GV Property Group has been in Palm Beach, only second to Broadbeach.

After the boom that saw the likes of Cabana, Esplanade, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/the-tally-14-18-twenty-eighth-avenue-palm-beach">The Tally</a> and Hirsch &amp; Faigen's <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/hemingway-1267-1273-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach">Hemingway development</a> sell out, the suburb remained in hot demand, but supply wasn't there to match it. When a project like <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/seaclusion-202-4-twenty-first-avenue-palm-beach">Seaclusion</a>, 40 one two and three-bedroom units on Twenty First Avenue entered the market, the majority of apartments were snapped up within a month.

It wasn't until earlier this year that the tap was turned back on. Prominent Gold Coast developer Sherpa brought to the market Perspective Nexus, 35 apartments at&nbsp;949 Gold Coast Highway&nbsp;that have race to 75 per cent sold, while fellow renowned local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/marquee-development-partners">Marquee Development Partners</a>&nbsp;launched <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/la-belle-palm-beach-332-the-esplanade-palm-beach">La Belle Palm Beach</a> to similar fanfare. Over 80 per cent of the 75 apartments on offer were snapped up, making La Belle the fastest selling project on the Gold Coast in 2024.

l[smartcode_project:default project_id=102340 project_image_fid=273591]

The apartment pipeline for Palm Beach looks strong, as demand will be somewhat to be satisifed by the number of developments waiting to hit the market.

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa</a> is soon to launch <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-on-sixth-ave">Flourish on Sixth</a>, the first development of its Flourish brand that caters for a wider range of buyers with a diverse mix of 94 one, two and three-bedroom apartments.

Tim Gordon's <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/gordon-corp">Gordon Corp</a>, in another joint venture with the Mathieson hospitality family, is <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/first-look-exclusive-gordon-corp-team-up-again-with-mathieson-family-and-join-booming-palm-beach-off-the-plan-apartment-market">teaming up again</a> to create a development that is also expecting to attract several buyer camps.

"We have been very deliberate in not pushing scale, or density,” Gordon Corp Sales and Marketing Director Lara Dimond&nbsp;said.

<img alt="Gordon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="dd3cdd67-3fd3-4a20-99ee-0f3ecc8f05ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-10-11%20at%204.00.35%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=FbMiVo04utsBy2vtccUAPAcV1oaYoy0x" />

The building, designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects" target="">Cottee Parker</a>, comprises 47 two and three-bedroom apartments across a nine-level building at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/62-64-jefferson-lane-palm-beach">62-64 Jefferson Lane</a>, just one row back from the beach.

The apartments start from 115 sqm and range in size to 275 sqm. Private resident amenities have been incorporated on the ground floor. There will be a 15m lap pool with day beds and cabanas, a wellness centre with cold plunge and a hot spa, as well as a sauna and steam room. The wellness centre will also feature a&nbsp;state-of-the-art gym.

One of the most recent submissions is for one of Palm Beach's largest developments to date.

B.K.A Holdings Pty Ltd, a company directed by solicitor David Ingwersen, has <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/first-look-exclusive-palm-beach-apartment-pipeline-ramps-up-another-notch">proposed two 13-level towers</a> on an&nbsp;amalgamated six-lot, 2,472 sqm site at 1395-1405 Gold Coast Highway and 436-438 The Esplanade, which would home 98 two, three and four-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="palm beach" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2aa0460c-45d1-4701-be63-f552f638010c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-10-11%20at%204.04.09%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=n1l3tknhztnAOGO.h8yDcYs303hezxyt" />

The West Tower will have the bulk of the apartments (72), with six units per floor, while the East Tower will have just 25 three-bedroom apartments, each with a multi-purpose room, and a sole four-bedroom penthouse.

There will be two small hospitality venues on the ground floor of the buildings. The more dense buildings will have greater amenity, in the form of a ground level swimming pool and a wellness centre with a gym, steam room, and sauna, while the more boutique building will have the same facilities, just without the gym.

Demand from both developers and buyers is expected to see Palm Beach continually be one of the most popular suburbs on the Gold Coast for the foreseeable. Over the last four quarters, Palm Beach has been the most searched Gold Coast suburb on Urban.com.au.

Over the last four quarters, Palm Beach has been the most searched Gold Coast suburb on Urban.com.au.

Palm Beach: The most indemand off the plan apartment market on the Gold Coast

The word sterling has many connotations. It is often used when something is of top quality, prestige, and timelessness.

It is sterling that inspired the newest development in Lane Cove, in Sydney's booming Lower North Shore region.

Located in the quiet northern end of Lane Cove, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/sterling-lane-cove-2-merinda-street-lane-cove">Sterling</a>&nbsp;features 50 one, two, and three-bedroom apartments, catering for a wide variety of buyers and just six apartments per floor.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136108 project_image_fid=303417]

Ray White Projects Wider Sydney Managing Director, Mark Bernberg, says everything about the project is intrinsically tied to what sterling is all about.

"Everything has been considered to be of sterling quality," Bernberg says.

"The fixtures and finishes are another level up from what has come before in this quiet pocket of Lane Cove, and every apartment, be it for the first home buyer, rightsizer, or downsizer, has the same sterling design approach."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136108 project_image_fid=303415]

Each kitchen in Sterling is fitted with Miele ovens and cooktops and Fisher &amp; Paykel dishwashers.

Future residents will have access to a rooftop entertaining area with extensive panoramic views, over the leafy surroundings and back to the Sydney CBD.

The location of Sterling is expected to draw those seeking both nature and convenience. It is ideally located on Merinda Street, which will place residents between Stringybark Creek,&nbsp;Lane Cove's only area of endangered Blue Gum High Forest, and the well-connected&nbsp;Mowbray Road West and Epping Road.&nbsp;

It's only two kilometres from The Canopy, the heart of the Lane Cove community that has a plaza with extensive retail and hospitality venues centred around a village green-like lawn that regularly hosts live music acts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136108 project_image_fid=303412]

Sterling is being delivered by builder developer Scion Group, who has a strong reputation of delivering quality across Sydney's North Shore.

As part of its commitment to delivering quality, Scion has taken out the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/what-is-latent-defects-insurance-and-is-it-bringing-confidence-to-the-off-the-plan-apartment-market">10-year Latent Defects Insurance</a> offered by Resilience Insurance. The insurance, often known as LDI covers structural defects of the building for up to 10 years post-completion. Sterling is the only development in Lane Cove to have the insurance.

Scion Group is well advanced in construction of Sterling. The building itself is expected to complete later this year, with the internal fitout seeing residents move in some time in Q1 2025.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136108]

Sterling in name and nature as new apartments hit Lane Cove

It was the combination of research, timing, and growth potential that led Youngki Park to secure his first home in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/deicorp">Deicorp</a>’s Melrose Central, part of the expansive Melrose Park urban renewal project.

Youngki, an architect by trade, had become aware of the opportunity for growth in the area from his friend who had previously bought an apartment in Melrose Park with Sekisui.

"The value of my friend's apartment had gone up since he had bought it off the plan, so that for me opened up the idea of buying an apartment that hadn't been built yet,"&nbsp;Youngki said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=289879]

Youngki had seen first hand how much the area had evolved in recent years, and was well aware of the infrastructure developments in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a>.

"There is a lot happening in the area, especially regarding transport, which will connect it to the rest of Sydney," Youngki said.

"Melrose Central will be across the road from the future&nbsp;Parramatta Light Rail which will make commuting into the city easy, and there's a new bridge planned that will connect it [Melrose Park] to Wentworth Point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=289878]

Understanding no purchase of a home isn't without its risks, in both the established or off the plan space, Youngki said doing his research on the developer made him feel at ease.

"As an architect, I appreciated the design of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/melrose-central-melrose-park-657-661-victoria-road-melrose-park-nsw-2214">Melrose Central</a>,&nbsp;and after doing my research into Deicorp and the fact they have delivered 100 per cent of projects they've set out to, my mind was made up."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=289894]

Youngki is renting across the harbour in Rhodes but decided it was the right time to invest in his financial future. He was one of 40 or so buyers who secured apartment on the display suite launch at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/melrose-central-melrose-park-657-661-victoria-road-melrose-park-nsw-2214">Melrose Central</a>.

"I hadn't intended on buying on the opening weekend, however, the sheer number of people, and the clear confidence and intent of those buyers, pushed him over the line."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=289895]

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/project-marketer/cbre-residential-australia" target="">CBRE</a>&nbsp;Residential Project Managing Director, David Milton, says Melrose Central represents great value for buyers.

"Our two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartments are priced under $1 million. If you go to any of the neighbouring suburbs, you can't get that kind of value," Milton suggests.

Milton says the buyer pool has been diverse, with first home buyers, local owner-occupiers, and even investors purchasing.

Melrose Central, developed by Deicorp and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/payce-consolidated-limited">PAYCE</a>, is a part of the larger 55-hectare Melrose Park precinct, which will eventually deliver 500 apartments over six buildings, alongside a five-level podium housing retail, wellness facilities, and a Coles supermarket.&nbsp;

The first stage of Melrose Central is expected to complete by mid-2027.

Youngki took part in Urban's&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/buyer-qa">Buyer Q&amp;A series</a>, which focuses on the driving factors behind&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/guides/the-ultimate-off-the-plan-guide-5-property-experts-share-advice-for-buying-a-new-apartment-or-townhome" target="">buying off the plan</a>&nbsp;property in Australia.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134220]

CBRE Residential Project Managing Director, David Milton, says Melrose Central represents great value for buyers

Why a local first home buyer bought an apartment in Deicorp's Melrose Central: Urban Buyer Q&A

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

The following is the statement provided by Michele Bullock which can be <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-35.html">found here</a>.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Last month, the Board increased interest rates by 25&nbsp;basis points, following a period of four months where it had held interest rates steady. This decision reflected the Board’s view that progress in bringing inflation back to the target range of 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent was looking slower than earlier forecast. While the economy has been experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it was stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market had eased but remained tight. Housing prices were continuing to rise across the country as was the number of new mortgages. Given this, the Board judged that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer had risen and an increase in interest rates was therefore warranted to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.

The limited information received on the domestic economy since the November meeting has been broadly in line with expectations. The monthly CPI indicator for October suggested that inflation is continuing to moderate, driven by the goods sector; the inflation update did not, however, provide much more information on services inflation. Overall, measures of inflation expectations remain consistent with the inflation target. Wages growth picked up in the September quarter but this was expected given that it captured the earlier Fair Work Commission decision on award wages. Wages growth is not expected to increase much further and remains consistent with the inflation target, provided productivity growth picks up. Conditions in the labour market also continued to ease gradually, although they remain tight.

Higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy. The impact of the more recent rate rises, including last month's, will continue to flow through the economy. High inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Holding the cash rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labour market.

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. While there have been encouraging signs on goods inflation abroad, services price inflation has remained persistent and the same could occur in Australia. There also remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad. Domestically, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income.

Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Urban Editorial

RBA keeps rates on hold at final meeting of 2023

The full statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on its November Cup Day rate hike

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate target by 25&nbsp;basis points to 4.35&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent. It also increased the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances by 25&nbsp;basis points to 4.25&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago. The latest reading on CPI inflation indicates that while goods price inflation has eased further, the prices of many services are continuing to rise briskly. While the central forecast is for CPI inflation to continue to decline, progress looks to be slower than earlier expected. CPI inflation is now expected to be around 3½&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent by the end of 2024 and at the top of the target range of 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent by the end of 2025. The Board judged an increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.

The Board had held interest rates steady since June following an increase of 4&nbsp;percentage points since May last year. It had judged that higher interest rates were working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy. Furthermore, it had noted that the impact of the more recent rate rises would continue to flow through the economy. It had therefore decided that it was appropriate to hold rates steady to provide time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates so far. In particular, the Board had indicated that it would be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.

Since its August meeting, the Board has received updated information on inflation, the labour market, economic activity and the revised set of forecasts. The weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased. While the economy is experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it has been stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market have eased but they remain tight. Housing prices are continuing to rise across the country.

At the same time, high inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Given that the economy is forecast to grow below trend, employment is expected to grow slower than the labour force and the unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually to around 4¼&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent. This is a more moderate increase than previously forecast. Wages growth has picked up over the past year but is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up.

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. Services price inflation has been surprisingly persistent overseas and the same could occur in Australia. There are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income. And globally, there remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad.

Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Source: <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-30.html">www.rba.gov.au</a>

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent

RBA hike interest rates at Cup Day meeting

Property values across the country continued to decline over November, research from property data firm CoreLogic found, but there was a further ease in the speed of the declines.

Dwelling values (which incorporates both houses and units), contracted a further one per cent in November, driven by declines in Hobart (-2 per cent), Canberra (-1.2 per cent), and Sydney (-1 per cent).

Capital city housing markets declined -1.2 per cent, with Brisbane (-2.2 per cent), Hobart (-2 per cent) and Sydney (-1.5 per cent), feeling the declines the hardest.

Capital city units however dropped just -0.6 per cent. Hobart (-1.8 per cent), Sydney (-0.9 per cent) and Canberra (-0.8 per cent) the capital's the most affected in the unit market.

Declines however have continued to soften since August when the national index dropped by -1.6 per cent.

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the easing in the rate of decline is mostly emanating from the Sydney and Melbourne markets, but is also evident across many of the smaller capitals and most regional markets.&nbsp;

“Three months ago, Sydney housing values were falling at the monthly rate of -2.3 per cent. That has now reduced by a full percentage point to a decline of -1.3 per cent in November," Lawless said.&nbsp;

"In July, Melbourne home values were down -1.5 per cent over the month, with the monthly decline almost halving last month to -0.8 per cent.

“The rate of decline has also eased across the ACT (from a -1.7% fall in August), and is no longer accelerating in Brisbane. Most of the broad rest-of-state markets have also seen the pace of declines decelerate."

Lawless said that it is possible we are seeing the initial uncertainty around buying in a higher interest rate environment wearing off, while persistently low advertised stock levels have likely contributed to this trend towards smaller value falls. He does however note that housing risk remains skewed to the downside while interest rates are still rising and household balance sheets become more thinly stretched.

“There is still the possibility that the pace of declines could reaccelerate, especially if the current rate hiking cycle persists longer than expected.

"Next year will be a particular test of serviceability and housing market stability, as the record-low fixed rate terms secured in 2021 start to expire."

<h2>Melbourne Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Unit values across Melbourne dropped just -0.2 per cent across November, the lowest declines the Victorian capital has seen since May. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>It's stark comparison to the housing market, which dropped another -1 per cent.</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112174 project_image_fid=199593]

<ul>
	<li>Unit values are now -4.1 per cent down over 2022, almost half the declines felt in the housing market, now -8.1 per cent since the turn of the year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Melbourne unit value is now $597,000, and houses $759,000.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Sydney Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Unit values across Sydney dropped just -0.9&nbsp;per cent across November, the third highest of all the capital city markets. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Sydney houses dropped another -1.5 per cent in November.</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22748 project_image_fid=204929]

<ul>
	<li>Unit values are now -8.2 per cent down over 2022, which is double the declines in Melbourne. Houses in the Harbour capital are down -11.9 per cent in the same period. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Sydney unit value is now $781,000, and houses $1,025,000.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Brisbane Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Brisbane had the biggest divergence between the house and unit market in November 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Unit values across Brisbane dropped just -0.2&nbsp;per cent across November, the third best performing unit market across the capitals. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Brisbane houses however were the worst performer, down -2.2 per cent</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102309 project_image_fid=163977]

<ul>
	<li>The Brisbane unit market has been one of the biggest success stories of 2022, bucking the trend of the downturn. Values are still 7.1 per cent higher than they were at the start of the year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The Brisbane house market has also remained resilient, just ticking into negative territory, down -0.8 per cent this year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Brisbane unit value is now $492,000, and houses $798,000.</li>
</ul>

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the easing in the rate of decline is mostly emanating from the Sydney and Melbourne markets

Property downturn continues, but rate of decline softens again: CoreLogic

The RBA has hiked rates for the sixth month in a row, with the Tuesday meeting seeing rates rise by 0.25 per cent.

Three of the big four banks expected a half a percentage point rise, with just Commonwealth Bank predicting the 25 basis point rise.

The official cash rate is now at 2.6 per cent.

The RBA noted in their statement that, as is the case in most countries, inflation in Australia is too high.

"Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand relative to the ability of the economy to meet that demand is also playing a role," RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted in the announcement.

The RBA predicted a further increase in inflation over the months ahead, before it then declines back toward the two to three per cent range.

"The expected moderation in inflation next year reflects the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, recent declines in some commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates.

"Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case. The Bank’s central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 7¾ per cent over 2022, a little above 4 per cent over 2023 and around 3 per cent over 2024."

As for mortgages, Lowe noted that higher inflation and higher interest rates are putting pressure on household budgets, with the full effects of higher interest rates yet to be felt in mortgage payments.

"Consumer confidence has also fallen and housing prices are declining after the earlier large increases.," Lowe suggested.

"Working in the other direction, people are finding jobs, gaining more hours of work and receiving higher wages. Many households have also built up large financial buffers and the saving rate still remains higher than it was before the pandemic."

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said Aussies with a $500,000 mortgage will be paying almost $9,000 more a year in interest compared to just six months ago.

“Australians with a $500,000 mortgage will be forking out $735 more per month compared to what they were paying in April.&nbsp; 
 
“That’s a whopping amount of extra money to pay every month – especially when everyday items like groceries and petrol are skyrocketing in price."

The RBA noted in their statement that, as is the case in most countries, inflation in Australia is too high.



RBA hike interest rates by 0.25 per cent, points to high inflation

Affordability issues appeared to have curbed borrowing activity of first home buyers and owner occupiers, but not investor loans in September, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

The value of new home loans dropped for the second month in a row.

In September, $30 billion of new mortgages were settled, down 1.4 per cent from August, in seasonally-adjusted terms.

Owner-occupier lending dropped 2.7 percent from August.

Investor lending continued to climb, reaching its highest level since April 2015 with $9.62 billion in loans settled in September, up 1.4 per cent month-on-month.

Increased investor loan commitments were seen across most states, with particular strength in Queensland (up 4.2 per cent), South Australia (up 16.4 per cent) and Western Australia (up 7.3 per cent). Smaller rises in investor borrowing were seen in Victoria (up 1.4 per cent), New South Wales (up 0.1 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (up 1.0 per cent) and Tasmania (up 1.4 per cent). 

For the eighth conscutive month, the number of owner-occupier first home buyer loans fell, down 5.6 per cent in September, to be down 27.1 percent since the January peak.

Ratecity noted Victoria, in lockdown, led the retreat with the number of first home buyer loans dropping 16.7 percent in the month, while NSW dropped by 3.1 percent.

Western Australia fhbs had the largest rise of 5.9 percent, while Queensland rose 2.1 percent and South Australia rose 4.3 percent.

ABS head of finance and wealth, Katherine Keenan, said the average loan size for owner occupiers has grown, but the value of new loan commitments for owner-occupier housing fell for the fourth month in a row, to $20.7 billion in September.

"Affordability constraints are biting in the first home buyer space, with dwelling prices rising by over 20% on an annual basis," the Comm Bank said.

NSW owner occupiers borrowed an average of $750,000 in September which was a record high.

The big banks are all now applying stricter loan criteria on applications as of November 1 given lending requirements imposed by APRA.

There has been positive growth in investors taking on mortgages since October last year

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Investors return to property with six year borrowing high: ABS 

RBA Governor Statement

At its meeting today, the Board decided to:

maintain the cash rate target at 10&nbsp;basis points and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances of zero per&nbsp;cent

maintain the target of 10&nbsp;basis points for the April 2024 Australian Government bond

purchase government securities at the rate of $4&nbsp;billion a week and to continue the purchases at this rate until at least mid February 2022.

Prior to the Delta outbreak the Australian economy had considerable momentum. GDP increased by 0.7&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in the June quarter and by nearly 10&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over the year. Business investment was picking up and the labour market had strengthened. The unemployment rate had fallen below 5&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent and job vacancies were at a high level.

The recovery in the Australian economy has, however, been interrupted by the Delta outbreak and the associated restrictions on activity. GDP is expected to decline materially in the September quarter and the unemployment rate will move higher over coming months. While the outbreak is affecting most parts of the economy, the impact is uneven, with some areas facing very difficult conditions while others are continuing to grow strongly.

This setback to the economic expansion is expected to be only temporary. The Delta outbreak is expected to delay, but not derail, the recovery. As vaccination rates increase further and restrictions are eased, the economy should bounce back. There is, however, uncertainty about the timing and pace of this bounce-back and it is likely to be slower than that earlier in the year. Much will depend on the health situation and the easing of restrictions on activity. In our central scenario, the economy will be growing again in the December quarter and is expected to be back around its pre-Delta path in the second half of next year.

Notwithstanding the strong economic and labour market outcomes pre-Delta, wage and price pressures remain subdued. Over the year to the June quarter, the Wage Price Index increased by just 1.7&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Housing prices are continuing to rise, although turnover in some markets has declined following the virus outbreak. Housing credit growth has picked up due to stronger demand for credit by both owner-occupiers and investors. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank is monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

Very accommodative financial conditions will continue to support the recovery of the Australian economy. Borrowing rates are at record lows, sovereign bond yields are at very low levels and the exchange rate has depreciated over recent months. The fiscal responses by the Australian Government and the state and territory governments are also providing welcome assistance in supporting household and business balance sheets.

The Board&#39;s decision to extend the bond purchases at $4&nbsp;billion a week until at least February 2022 reflects the delay in the economic recovery and the increased uncertainty associated with the Delta outbreak. The Board will continue to review the bond purchase program in light of economic conditions and the health situation, and their implications for the expected progress towards full employment and the inflation target. These bond purchases, together with the low level of the cash rate, the yield target and the funding that has been provided under the Term Funding Facility, are providing substantial and ongoing support to the Australian economy.

The Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to achieve a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range. The central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024. Meeting this condition will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently.

RBA holds rates, turnover declines following the virus outbreak: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's September 2021 meeting statement

The RBA has held interest rates at a record low 0.1 per cent at its September meeting.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe&#39;s said that housing prices are continuing to rise, although turnover in some markets has declined following the virus outbreak.

&quot;Housing credit growth has picked up due to stronger demand for credit by both owner-occupiers and investors, Lowe noted.

&quot;Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank is monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.&quot;

In Finder.com.au&#39;s monthly RBA Survey, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said the lockdown and its hit to the economy&nbsp;has further delayed the time when the effective RBA conditions &ndash; full employment and 3% or more wages growth to sustain 2-3% inflation &ndash; will be met to justify a rate hike.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=103179 project_image_fid=167473]

Commentator Saul Eslake said he takes the RBA at its word&nbsp;when it says it won&#39;t begin tightening monetary policy until the labour market is sufficiently tight to generate wage inflation that&#39;s sufficiently strong to push &#39;underlying&#39; consumer price inflation sustainably into the 2-3% target range.

&quot;While I think that may well be sooner than the RBA&#39;s &lsquo;central case&rsquo; of 2024, I don&#39;t think it will be any earlier than mid-2023,&quot; Eslake says.

Dr Andrew Wilson from My Housing Market says that no change in fundamental economic weakness confirmed again with low wages growth despite robust labour market.

&quot;As usual &ndash; absolutely no plausible case on current data for higher rates over the foreseeable future &ndash; and then there is Covid.&quot;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102580 project_image_fid=167435]

New research from Finder reveals that over half of&nbsp;homeowners across the country&nbsp;are concerned about interest rates increasing in the near future.

Around15% fear they may not be able to make their repayments once rates creep up.

Finder.com.au&#39;s head of consumer research Graham Cooke says some homeowners may have purchased beyond their means in the midst of the housing market frenzy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22308 project_image_fid=75031]

&ldquo;The past 12 months have seen property prices explode as record numbers of Australians have fled into the housing market,&quot; Cooke says.

&ldquo;Low interest rates have encouraged many buyers to purchase earlier than they otherwise might have for fear of missing out.

&ldquo;But not all of them will have budgeted for their monthly repayments to go up if or before the cash rate increases,&rdquo; Cooke said.

Finder analysis reveals the average monthly mortgage payments in Sydney are worth 76% of the average worker&rsquo;s after-tax earnings &ndash; the highest in the country. Melbourne (57%) is not far behind, followed by Canberra (49%) and Hobart (49%). Perth is at the bottom of the list, with the average mortgage costing a more reasonable 35% of average earnings.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe's said that housing prices are continuing to rise, although turnover in some markets has declined following the virus outbreak

RBA leave cash rate on hold at September meeting

The RBA has held interest rates at a record low 0.1 per cent at its August meeting.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe&#39;s comments on the housing market were much the same, noting all markets continuing to strengthen, with prices rising in all major markets.

He did cite an increase in borrowing by investors, and that given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank is monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

The experts and economists surveyed in Finder.com.au&#39;s RBA Cash Rate Survey all called the cash rate hold, with 75 per cent predicting the increase won&#39;t happen until 2023.

Tony Makin of Griffith University was the lone expert predicting the rate to rise before 2022.

&quot;In coming months a clearer picture will emerge of underlying inflation trends both in the US and [in Australia]. The recent US inflation spike is unlikely to be temporary given the massive money supply increase, recovery from the pandemic, and substantial US fiscal expansion.&quot;

AMP Capital&#39;s Shane Oliver said the RBA is still a long way from meeting its conditions for a rate hike &ndash; namely inflation sustainably back in the 2&ndash;3% target range which will require full employment and wages growth sustainably above 3%. And the latest coronavirus outbreaks and lockdowns risk delaying progress towards its goals.

Over a third of experts (71%), called for a change in stamp duty.

They agree that changes need to be made to either stamp duty or government stimulus in order to help buyers enter the property market.

Just over half (54%) think that only stamp duty should be changed, while another third (29%) think neither should be changed.

Finder&#39;s insights manager Graham Cooke said an easing of stamp duty could reduce the burden for first time buyers and establish a more even playing field.

&ldquo;Stamp duty is essentially a tax that slows down the turnover of property. It discourages current&nbsp;homeowners from downsizing, which locks up some of the market. &ldquo;A long-term land tax would provide a fairer long-term solution, while adding liquidity to the housing market,&rdquo; Cooke said.

RBA holds rates at August meeting, experts call for stamp duty changes

RBA Governor Statement

The economic recovery in Australia has been stronger than was earlier expected. The recent outbreaks of the virus are, however, interrupting the recovery and GDP is expected to decline in the September quarter. The experience to date has been that once virus outbreaks are contained, the economy bounces back quickly. Prior to the current virus outbreaks, the Australian economy had considerable momentum and it is still expected to grow strongly again next year. The economy is benefiting from significant additional policy support and the vaccination program will also assist with the recovery.

The economic outlook for the coming months is uncertain and depends upon the evolution of the health situation and the containment measures. Beyond that, the Bank&#39;s central scenario is for the economy to grow by a little over 4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over 2022 and by around 2&frac12; per&nbsp;cent over 2023. This scenario is based on a significant share of the population being vaccinated by the end of this year and a gradual opening up of the international border from the middle of 2022. The Board also considered a range of other scenarios, with the main source of uncertainty being the health situation.

The labour market has recovered faster than expected, with the unemployment rate declining further to 4.9&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in June. Job vacancies have remained at a high level and there are reports of labour shortages in parts of the economy. Some increase in the unemployment rate is expected in the near term due to the current lockdowns, but most of the adjustment in the labour market is likely to take place through a reduction in hours worked and in participation. In the central scenario, the unemployment rate continues to trend lower next year, to be around 4&frac14; per&nbsp;cent at the end of 2022 and 4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent at the end of 2023.

The CPI inflation rate spiked to 3.8&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent for the year to the June quarter, largely reflecting the unwinding of some earlier&nbsp;COVID-19-related price declines. In underlying terms, inflation remains low, at around 1&frac34; per&nbsp;cent.

Looking forward, a pick-up in both wages growth and underlying inflation is expected, but this pick-up is likely to be only gradual. In the Bank&#39;s central scenario, it takes some years for the stronger economy to feed through into wage and price increases that are consistent with the inflation target. In underlying terms, inflation is expected to be 1&frac34; per&nbsp;cent over 2022 and 2&frac14; per&nbsp;cent over 2023. One source of uncertainty is the behaviour of wages and prices at the low levels of forecast unemployment, including because it is some decades since Australia has sustained an unemployment rate around 4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Housing markets have continued to strengthen, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, including first-home buyers. There has also been increased borrowing by investors. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank is monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

Domestic financial conditions remain very accommodative, sovereign bond yields have declined and the exchange rate has depreciated to around its lowest level this year, despite elevated levels of commodity prices. The recent fiscal responses by the Australian Government and the state and territory governments are also providing welcome support to the economy at a time of significant short-term disruption.

The Board remains committed to maintaining highly accommodative monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. Together, the low level of the cash rate, the bond purchase program, the yield target and the ongoing funding that has been provided under the Term Funding Facility are providing substantial support to the Australian economy in the face of lockdowns in parts of the country and the expected resumption of the economic expansion.

The Board will maintain its flexible approach to the rate of bond purchases. The program will continue to be reviewed in light of economic conditions and the health situation, and their implications for the expected progress towards full employment and the inflation target. The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range. The central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024. Meeting this condition will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently.

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