Future RBA rate hikes' impact likely far greater than previous cycles: Macquarie economist
Three rate hikes of even 25 basis points by the central bank could deliver a bigger increase in debt-servicing costs for households than 10-11 rate hikes did in the mid-1990s, according to Macquarie Bank’s head of economic research, whose analysis adds to the debate on the impact of the economy in the event of a housing market crash.
Macquarie Bank’s James McIntyre found after studying previous tightening cycles in the mid 1990s and turn of the century, the first of which involved 11 quarter-point hikes, that the subsequent surge in households' debt servicing ratio -- interest costs as a portion of disposable income -- would be achieved with less than a third of those hikes today, thanks to record high private debt levels, Bloomberg reported.
McIntyre, however, doesn't expect a rate increase until early 2019 when core inflation is likely back inside its 2 percent to 3 percent target.
"The RBA's reticence about further increases in household debt-to-income ratios is clear when you begin to consider how potent interest-rate rises might be from a debt-servicing perspective,'' McIntyre was cited by Bloomberg as saying.
“At the current level of debt-to-income, we estimate that three to four 25 basis-point rate hikes would deliver a bigger increase in debt-servicing costs for households than 10 to 11 rate hikes did in the mid-1990s.''
He said the other difference between the periods is a wider spread between the cash rate and lenders' mortgage rates: from 180 basis points to about 375 basis points.
Current households' debt levels are at a record 187 percent of income and a one percentage point increase in the RBA's cash rate would, excluding further increases in lenders' borrowing rates, push the household debt servicing ratio beyond 10 per cent, the analysis found.
RBA Governor recently sounded an alarm, saying inflation will only rise slowly but the combination of record high household debt to income when wages were growing slowly was a “sobering combination”.
Even the OECD said recently that a potential hard landing in the property market could morph into a recession fuelled by record high household debt.
It analysis found that Australian house prices are 15 to 20 per cent overvalued, and that a rate rise of more than 1.5 per cent would imply a higher level of overvaluation -- at which point a correction would become more likely. The Melbourne-based consultant said it doesn't expect a house price collapse.
"Given the sensitivity of the housing market to monetary policy, this is likely to provide a cap on how high interest rates will rise,'' said Chris Trevillyan, director of capital markets and asset allocation research at Frontier.
"The RBA will avoid triggering the kind of house price collapse that will have a major impact on bank capital.''