NAB's Alan Oster says 30% chance of three 2015 rate cuts

The National Australia Bank (NAB) has joined the other banks to tip rate cuts in 2015 as it noted declining business confidence.

But its chief economist Consumer Affairs Victoria went further given rising nervousness that Australia will spend less and save more next year.

"What worries me there is that people are becoming less confident, they're less likely to employ and they're less likely to invest,"  Oster told Ross Greenwood's 2GB Money News last night.

So while NAB certainly expects two 25-basis-point cuts in the cash rate next year, it even countenances it could fall beyond this fresh record low of 2%.

"There will be at least two, and we haven't actually put it in a third, but if you gave me odds there's probably a 30 per cent chance," Oster said.

Adding that there won't be a technical recession next year, he suggested it very much depended on what happens with the currency, commodity prices and domestic demand.

Nonetheless he tipped the RBA would be be dragged kicking and screaming to cut rates, indicating a March rate cut would be the first, while other economists have tipped February.

"To some extent we were among one of the last to give up on the idea of cuts earlier this year," he told Greenwood.