Experts predict no interest rate change tomorrow: Finder

Experts predict no interest rate change tomorrow: Finder
Experts predict no interest rate change tomorrow: Finder

All 25 experts surveyed by expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the overnight cash rate on hold this month.

The RBA has held the cash rate at a record low of 2.5% since August last year. More than half of the experts surveyed predicted that the next interest rate change will come in the second half of 2015, including Property Observer's Jonathan Chancellor.

Only one respondent, Nicki Hutley of Urbis, expects a rise as early as December this year.

“The Australian economy is still seeing growth a little below par," said Hutley. "Inflation is picking up but not yet alarmingly so... so the RBA won’t be in any hurry to move."

"A first rate rise is likely to occur either in December or the new year," she told Of the 25 respondents, 10 surveyed expected an increase would come in the first half of 2015.

The experts surveyed include representatives  from AMP, ANZ, Bank of Queensland, Moody's Analytics and Commsec. James Bond of the Financial Services Council said uncertainty in recent economic indicators will see the RBA hold rates.

"The RBA will wait to see how employment and wages pan out over the next six months before they make a move either way," said Bond.

"The usual tightening cycle that we would expect has been pushed out by uncertainty in the some of the data.”

Janu Chan of St George Bank also believed that the RBA would wait for more solid evidence of an economic recovery.

"The RBA will probably want to see some stronger evidence that the recovery is strengthening before they raise interest rates," Chan said.

"We think the RBA is done cutting rates so the next move we expect will be a hike."

ING Direct's Michael Witts predicted a 25 basis point increase in the first six months of 2015.

"The Bank is trying to balance the strength of the housing and related sectors," said Witts.

"Equally it is mindful that any near term move in interest rates will see the Australian dollar move higher."

To see each expert's prediction, go to the next page.

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Experts predict no interest rate change tomorrow: Finder


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