Yields

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68979/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
For the past three decades the yields on long-term bonds have been on a downward trend. This has dramatically reversed since the election of Donald Trump, with more than a trillion dollars wiped off the global bond market in the past week and a half.
But it’s not just investors that are impacted by this spectacular reversal. The bond market is a backbone of the global financial system, meaning the sell off has implications far and wide, from economic growth through to real estate prices. 
<h2>What’s happening in bond markets</h2>
Bonds are a type of long-term debt - companies and governments sell bonds to investors and these will in turn be bought and sold on the bond markets. 
The thing to look at with bonds is the market price, which is reflected in the yield quoted or price paid when a bond is bought and sold. Investors in bonds receive their returns in regular interest payments and the return of principal when the bond matures. 
As the price of the bond rises, the yield will drop. With the price of bonds steadily rising during the 30 year bull market, yields have fallen away significantly, bringing down the interest rates around the world.
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US 10 Yr Treasury Yield. 
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<h2>Why we pay attention to the bond market</h2>
The price of bonds filters through into the rest of the economy. This is because government bonds are considered relatively risk free, and so act as a benchmark for pricing (relatively more risky) securities in all other markets. 
A company’s shares, for example, are expected to yield the risk-free rate (what a government bond would yield) plus an additional amount to compensate investors for their riskiness - called the “equity risk premium”. Investment in corporate bonds can be expected to yield the risk-free rate plus a premium for taking on the added default risk. 
The US bond market is especially important, as it is the largest and its prices act as a benchmark for interest rates globally. Rising bond yields in the US signal a number of things - higher expected inflation from the touted tax cuts and higher spending, and the need to borrow to fund this expansion. All of this puts further downward pressure on bond prices and upward pressure on interest rates, increasing yields. 
Overall, bond prices serve as a “barometer” of what the market is “thinking”. Especially what it thinks will happen in the future, as the relation between long term interest rates and short term interest rates has a mechanical effect on future interest rates. 
<h2>What this could mean</h2>
The sudden increase in bond yields, most notably the 10 Year US Government bond yields, has broad implications for the economy.
Mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year bond yield, for example, meaning borrowers will need to pay more for housing loans. This won’t happen overnight and we will have to wait to see the long-term effect on real estate prices.
But taking in past history, here are a range of possibilities from the end of the bull market.
First, when long-term interest rates are higher than short-term interest rates, the market expects interest rates in the future to be higher. This suggests that this market sell off isn’t an aberration, we can expect higher yields and lower bond prices in the future, and this trend will continue.
Second, long-term bond yields generally reflect an economy’s long-term real growth rate plus a premium for inflation. Inflation measures around the globe have been quite low and central banks have struggled to reach their inflation targets. Rising bond yields could mean the growth starts to tick up.
Third, there will be more uncertainty in global markets until the implications of a Trump presidency are known. Investors will expect a greater return to investment in US government bonds because of this heightened uncertainty. So yields on long-term US Treasuries are likely to stay up and even increase further in the foreseeable future. But even so interest rates are still low by historical standards.
Fourth, new borrowing for housing will be more costly. The risk of rising interest rates on existing mortgages has been mostly shifted elsewhere in the US economy. Let’s hope that the institutions or individuals holding that risk fare better than the institutions which collapsed during the savings and loans crisis in the US in the late 1980s.
Fifth, this is a permanent change in the nature of global interest rates. Rising bond yields could push up interest rates. Australia’s Reserve Bank Governor Phillip Lowe has signalled no further interest rate cuts unless inflation drops well below its current 1.5 percent level.
Christine Brown is professor and head of the Department of Banking and Finance, Monash University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christine-brown-316660" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

If the ‘bond market rout’ continues it could impact home prices

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GUEST OBSERVER
“Record low interest rates”. This seems to be the headline of the year, having been used so many times it is hard to remember any other kind of interest rate. Each time we see this, expectations for another rate cut decrease momentarily, only to return to the same, pre-cut probability-levels after a few weeks. 
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Figure 1 paints a clear picture of a similar short-term outlook, yet weakening long-term expectations.
<a href="/images/2016/08/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-12%20at%209.45.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-12%20at%209.45.34%20AM.png" alt="">
While this graph does not include data since the rate cut (yields on 10 year treasuries have lifted a whopping 0.03 percent since the July levels shown in Figure 2), we can see almost identical movements at each maturity date from May to June and from June to July.
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Yields on 3 year bonds are down 0.05 percent, 5 year bonds are down 0.1 percent and 10 year bonds are down 0.2 percent. 
This is almost a textbook example of yield curve inversion. In fact, yields on 90 day treasury bills in June were identical to those on 10 year bonds at 1.93 percent. 
Other than perhaps transaction costs, there is no reason for an investor to take on the extra risk of longer term securities without any increase in expected return. 
The RBA had little choice but to cut rates again. 
Figure 2 shows a similar picture, with greater inversion in the short and medium-term (up until about 2022) and lower yields on long- term maturities. 
This is a dangerous combination. 
An interest rate cut effectively lowers the short-term cash rate (i.e. 90 day yield), which normalises (steepens) the yield curve.
In theory, this stimulates the economy by making borrowing cheaper and incentivising banks to borrow at the short-term rate and lend out at the higher long-term rate. If the curve continues to flatten out (as it did since the last rate cut in May) then this impact is almost entirely negated. Like a see-saw, rates will continue to decrease until long-term expectations increase or at least stabilise. 
For more information, <a href="https://secretagent.com.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Rates will continue to decrease: Secret Agent 

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Capital city rental yields nationwide are lowest in Melbourne and highest in Darwin, according to CoreLogic RP Data, who found Melbourne rental yields at 3% and Darwin at 5.7%.
Unit yields are lowest in Melbourne (4.1%) and highest in Darwin and Brisbane at 5.5%.
Hobart and Canberra are the only two cities where house gross rental yields are steady. 
 
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Melbourne house yields at a record low: CoreLogic RP Data

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A new report suggests retail property prices will be built up by investors due to tightening yields, improved consumer sentiment and other asset classes not providing the same stability.
The LJ Hooker Commercial Retail Market Monitor said the value of retail transactions dropped in 2014-15, with the downturn attributed to the lack of available stock, with regional centres hit the hardest.
“Investment transaction activity was a little subdued in the first half of 2015, constrained in dollar terms by the low level of stock available,’’ he said.
“Regional centres have been consolidated on the back of improved retail spending.
"Queensland’s capital and secondary markets experienced a halving of retail turnover from 5.3% in 2013 to 2.5% in July this year.
“But we’re expecting a considerable turn-around for Queensland eclipsed, not surprisingly, only by Sydney and New South Wales over the next two years."
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Tight yields to drive retail property investors

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Adelaide's weekend clearance rate sat in equal second place at 70 percent, according to CoreLogic RP Data.
The nation's cheapest sale was in Adelaide's Rostrevor.
The one bedroom <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-sa-rostrevor-122565842" target="_blank">Radnor Avenue villa</a> offering fetched $209,000. It had sold at $166,500 in 2008. It was a $235 a week rental, so reflected a 5.8% gross yield.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

5.8 percent yield in weekend's cheapest auction result 

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The Victorian town of Cobram tops CoreLogic RP Data's latest list for median gross yields for units at 7 percent.
Its yield sits considerably higher than the national average of 4.63 percent.
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Property Observer profiles Cobram from a rental perspective.
The median sale price of a unit in Cobram was $170,000, compared with a national average of $438,000, over the last 12 months, according to the data. 
The median price change over one year was 5.26 percent.
Median rent for units was $230pw in Cobram against a national average of $390.
Property Observer looked up a few units around the median range available for renting around the median for Cobram on www.realestate.com.au.
 <img src="/images/2016/05/17/main.jpg" alt="" width="644" height="483">
1. A two-bedroom unit at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-vic-cobram-418414534">2/91 High Street Cobram Vic 3644</a> is available for $210 per week. Last traded price $110,000 in 1992, according to CoreLogic RP Data.
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2. A two-bedroom unit at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-vic-cobram-418414454">5/69 Campbell Road Cobram</a> is available for a rent of $240 per week.
 
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Victoria's Cobram tops rental yields for units: CoreLogic RP Data

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The thriving student accommodation market doesn’t seem to be popular with lenders despite top yields.
Student apartments around major universities and colleges regularly generate 8 per cent yields, or twice the return of most short-term savings products, according to agents specialising in student property. But with most major banks blacklisting inner-city high-rises and tightening criteria for investors, purpose-built student apartment values are continuing to fall.
Stephen Fitzsimon, head of business development for Melbourne Real Estate, which rents more than 1,000 apartments in Melbourne's CBD, told The Australian Financial Review that the price of a small apartment purchased about a decade back had dropped by about 10 per cent to $210,000.
Fitzsimon said demand for accommodation from overseas students (particularly from China and India) is "off the charts" and "continues on an upwards trajectory".
More than 170 groups of students recently registered to view a one-bedroom apartment in Melbourne's CBD that was renting for about $430 a week, he said. 
"These apartments are yielding through their teeth.”
Rental activity will pick up further as the start of the second academic semester nears.
But lenders are reluctant to lend to investors, the AFR reported.
Lending to investors must be capped at <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/48505-the-apra-impact-on-2015-property" target="_blank">10 per cent annual growth</a>, says APRA.
"If the banks changed their lending policy to allow normal mums and dads to buy, prices would go up because the yields are so strong."
Student apartments are popular with cashed-up self managed superannuation fund (SMSF) investors and retirees looking for yield. 
Overseas buyers are holding on to the apartments because capital losses have been offset by the rising Australian dollar. They are also used to offshore assets, particularly Chinese investors.
The gap between student numbers and student accommodation is rising.
In Melbourne, it is more than 84,000, according to JLL, while in Sydney it is about 43,000 and in Brisbane – excluding the Gold Coast – more than 18,000.
The gap reflects the underlying demand.
Savills' director of student accommodation Conal Newland said the ratio of purpose-built student accommodation in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane is about one bedroom for every 10 students, compared with more than two and a half bedrooms for each student in more established markets like London.
Overseas students in Australia are expected to increase to between seven and eight million in the next eight years from about 4.5 million now. 
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Student units earn top yields, but lenders' reluctance pushes prices lower  

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GUEST OBSERVER 
It’s hard to argue that the search for yield has gone too far given how low bond yields are. A range of assets still provide much better yields than cash and bonds.
However, bond yields are likely to gradually trend higher helped by stronger global growth, a gradual rise in global inflation and the Fed moving to reduce its bond holdings. This suggests the search for yield will slowly start to wane and the risk of a reversal down the track will gradually rise.
That the Fed can move to start reversing its post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) quantitative easing is another sign the US and global economy is getting back to normal after the GFC. This is good for investors.
Introduction
For some time now, the investment world has been characterised by a search for decent yield paying investments. This “search for yield” actually started last decade but was interrupted by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Eurozone debt crisis before resuming again in earnest.
When investment assets are in strong demand from investors, their price goes up relative to the cash flow (eg dividends, interest or rent) they provide pushing their yield down. This is evident in recent times in response to the “search for yield” with yields falling across the board as the next chart shows. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2011.45.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2011.45.14%20AM.png" alt="">
But everything goes in cycles. So has the "search for yield" gone too far? Will the US Federal Reserve’s shift to start reducing its bond holdings cause a reversal?
Drivers of the search for yield
Interest in yield based investing is not new and is in fact a normal part of investing. Particularly when investors are a bit wary about going for growth. In fact, in Japan it’s become pretty much the norm as interest rates have been stuck at zero for years. In the 1950s, yield focussed investing was the norm in the US and Australia.
The search for yield also became apparent last decade and played a role in the GFC itself (as investors piled into yield based investments underpinned by "sub-prime" mortgages, oblivious of the risks). There are three main drivers of the “search for yield” in recent years:
First, low interest rates and bond yields and the flow on to bank deposit rates due to low inflation and sub-par growth have encouraged investors to search for higher yielding investments. Central banks buying up bonds and displacing investors into other assets have accentuated this.
Second, reduced fear of economic meltdown (as the GFC and subsequently the Eurozone public debt crisis subsided) has helped investors feel comfortable in taking on the greater risk that this entails.
Finally, aging populations in developed countries is seeing baby boomers move into pre-retirement and retirement, driving a demand for less volatile investments paying income.
Normally, this demand would go to bonds and bank deposits but as their yields are so low some of this demand has gone into other yield paying investments.  
Demand for yield from aging populations has further to go as populations age.
For example, in Australia the share of the population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 15% now to 22% by 2061. However, the second driver is cyclical and will reverse next time there is a sustained bout of risk aversion – just as it did in the GFC.  
The first driver is a mix of structural and cyclical influences, though, and it’s probably been the main driver of the search for yield. Bond yields and interest rates have been trending down for 30 years or so and this is structural reflecting a downtrend in inflation, which resulted in a long-term super cycle bull market in bonds. But falls this decade also contain a big cyclical element reflecting the sub-par global growth and deflation seen after the GFC.
This accentuated the super cycle bull market in bonds and put the search for yield on steroids. This is where the greatest risk of a reversal in the search for yield trade lies.  The logic of falling yields  The search for yield is understandable and can be seen in relation to Australian commercial property ie office, retail and industrial property.
The next chart shows average commercial property yields and 10-year bond yields. While average commercial property yields have fallen since the early 1980s from an average of 8.3% to around 5.5%, the yield on bonds has crashed. The longer the decline in bond yields has persisted, the more investors have expected it to continue, driving rising demand for higher yielding assets like property. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2011.46.51%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2011.46.51%20AM.png" alt="">
With Australian 10-year bonds yielding 2.8%, it’s little wonder investors might find commercial property on an average yield of around 5.5% more attractive particularly once capital growth of, say, 2.5% pa (ie inflation) for a total return of 8%, is allowed for. The property risk premium – the return potential property provides over bonds – at 5.2% remains high &amp; well above early 1990s and pre-GFC levels that caused problems for property. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2011.48.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2011.48.05%20AM.png" alt="">
The same logic applies to investment in assets such as unlisted infrastructure, listed variants of both commercial property and infrastructure, shares and corporate debt.
But are we getting close to a reversal?
Has it gone too far? The greatest risks are around corporate debt where the gap between US investment grade and junk bond yields and US government bond yields has narrowed sharply to around levels that prevailed prior to the tech wreck and again prior to the GFC. But as we saw in the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, spreads can remain low for a while before trouble arises, which is usually when the economy turns down and there is no sign of that just yet.
For equities the gap between the forward earnings yield on shares and bond yields has narrowed in recent years. But this gap – which is a guide to the risk premium shares offer over bonds – still remains relatively wide by pre GFC standards. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2011.49.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2011.49.36%20AM.png" alt="">
And finally for real assets, using commercial property as a guide, as indicated earlier the risk premium offered by commercial property relative to bonds remains wide, albeit it 
has narrowed as property yields have fallen and bond yields have risen (a bit). Overall, it’s hard to argue the search for yield has gone too far given how low bond yields still are. That said, corrections like what we saw in shares and corporate debt during 2015-16 are healthy in ensuring this remains the case.
But what about the risk of an upswing in bond yields, particularly with the Fed moving to quantitative tightening? This is the biggest risk and our view is that the super cycle bull market in bonds is over. There are several reason for this:
  First, global growth is looking stronger as evident in strong business conditions indicators across most countries. Global growth is improving and becoming more synchronised globally. Nearly 75% of the 45 countries tracked by the OECD are seeing accelerating growth, the highest it’s been since the initial bounce out of the GFC in 2010.
  Part of the reason for this is that the “muscle memory” from the GFC, which commenced a decade ago, is fading and this is contributing to stronger confidence.
  The risk of deflation is receding and giving way to the risk of a rise in inflation as capital and labour utilisation is on the rise globally &amp; productivity growth is poor, reflecting: low levels of investment; increasing levels of populist regulation in some countries; and as older workers retire. While the impact of technological innovation (the Amazon effect, artificial intelligence) will keep this gradual there will still be a cycle in inflation and the risks are gradually pointing up.
  Reflecting this, central banks are gradually retreating from ultra easy policy
. The Fed is the most advanced here as the US economic recovery is further advanced. As a result, the Fed is moving towards allowing its holding of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities to start declining.
This will be achieved by the Fed not rolling over (ie not reinvesting) the bonds on its books as they mature so it won’t be as dramatic as actually selling bonds. But its holding of bonds will nevertheless decline and it will be sucking cash out of the US economy. In other words, it will be undertaking “quantitative tightening” to reverse the “quantitative easing” of a few years ago.
This is good news and reflects the strength of the US economy much as its commencement of rate hikes did in 2015. Nevertheless, combined with continuing gradual Fed rate hikes, it will likely see a resumption of the upwards pressure on bond yields acting as a gradual dampener on the search for yield .
The upswing in bond yields is likely to be gradual – with periodic spurts higher then fall backs like over the last year – as the Fed will likely be gradual, other central banks including the Reserve Bank of Australia are well behind the Fed in being able to tighten and yield focussed demand from aging populations will act as a constraint. But the trend in bond yields is likely to be up unless there is an unexpected relapse in global growth.
 What does it all mean for investors?
 There are several implications for investors: expect lower returns from government bonds as yields gradually rise; the search for yield likely has further to go in relation to commercial property and infrastructure but it is likely to wane as bond yields rise; share markets are now more dependent on earnings growth for future gains (and the signs are positive) but cyclical sectors geared to higher earnings will likely be the outperformers and yield plays may be underperformers.
That the Fed is moving to start reversing its post-GFC quantitative easing (money printing) is another sign the global economy is getting back to normal. This is good for investors.
 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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