Property Prices

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>With plenty of hype around US property agent Jonathan Tepper’s predictions that Australian property prices will fall by 50 percent, here are ten reasons I think the Aussie property bubble won’t burst. </p>
<p><strong>1. Australia has high credit quality</strong></p>
<p>Australia and the US are two completely different markets. Australia has higher quality home loans thanks to stricter lending criteria and requirements, which means borrowers who are approved for loans can generally afford to service them. In contrast, banks in the US at the time of the GFC were lending to people who hadn’t provided paperwork and couldn’t service the loan – a recipe for disaster.</p>
<p><strong>2. Not as many foreclosures</strong></p>
<p>Borrowers in the US weren’t required to stump up a deposit to get a mortgage. To make matters worse, banks had no recourse so a borrower could walk away from a property without being sued. In contrast, Australians can no longer borrow 100% of the property value, and lenders can seek financial retribution if a borrower defaults. Australian borrowers are therefore less likely to default on their home loan, resulting in fewer foreclosures.</p>
<p><strong>3. You need to compare apples with apples</strong></p>
<p>A major problem with Tepper’s examples is that he was talking about the US as a whole and not comparing apples with apples. We need to compare prominent cities with other prominent cities, like Sydney with New York, which didn’t have much of a collapse during the GFC. No one would compare Logan in Queensland with Manhattan, would they? It just doesn’t make sense.</p>
<p><strong>4. Financial bodies are closely monitoring the market</strong></p>
<p>Down under, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority is keeping a close eye on the market and responding swiftly. For example, last year when APRA found there were too many investors driving up the Australian property market, it brought in new regulations that required lenders to reduce their investor loan books. The banks responded quickly and as a result we haven’t seen a major drop in the property market.</p>
<p><strong>5. We have a strong employment market</strong></p>
<p>For a 40-50% property collapse to occur, there need to be massive job losses and foreclosures – but we are seeing the opposite in Australia, as unemployment has dropped to around 6%.</p>
<p><strong>6. There’s a limited amount of land available</strong></p>
<p>The US is covered coast to coast with property, whereas in Australia we are restricted to areas around the coast where there is water and amenities, so we have a limited amount of properties available. We also have record migration at the moment, which will underpin prices for land.</p>
<p><strong>7. Continued property demand from foreign investors</strong></p>
<p>The Australian market is also being propped up by continued investment by overseas buyers from countries like China.</p>
<p><strong>8. The market is similar to 2003</strong></p>
<p>If you compare the percentage of disposable income today to what it was in 2003, it is somewhat similar. Back then, the RBA increased the official cash rate and prices slowed down. However, prices still moved along with inflation – they didn’t drop. So we’ve seen this happen before and we are just as leveraged now as we were then.</p>
<p><strong>9. The RBA has room to move</strong></p>
<p>The good news is today the Reserve Bank of Australia still has 2% to play with, so if the market did start to collapse the RBA could push the official cash rate to 0%, which would help homeowners get through the tough period financially.</p>
<p><strong>10. We have negative gearing</strong></p>
<p>The US didn’t have negative gearing when the GFC occurred – and still doesn’t today. But tax benefits Down Under drive behaviour as many investors are willing to lose a portion of their wages for the benefit of capital gains and bringing down their taxable income. Even if negative gearing concessions were to be slashed, property prices are unlikely to drop by 50%.</p>
<p><strong>So where will the Australian property market go?</strong></p>
<p>Property clearance rates are improving from last year despite predictions the market would keep dropping, so I’m still tipping prices will go up by 3-4% and will keep up with inflation.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Watch this space…</p>
<p><em><span>STEVE JOVCEVSKI</span> is a property investment and h</em><em>ome loan negotiator at </em><em><a href="https://mozo.com.au/" target="_blank">Mozo.com.au</a>.</em></p>
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Ten reasons the property bubble isn't going to burst: Mozo's Steve Jovcevski

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The housing market concluded 2015 with a whimper, with national house prices falling again at the national level in December. However, strong price growth in the first half of the year meant that prices were still up solidly over the past year.</span></p>
<p>But the current environment of subdued demand is likely to see price growth remain sluggish as we move into 2016.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.25.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.25.42%20AM.png" alt="" width="891" height="258"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Prices fell across the key markets of Sydney and Melbourne in December in seasonally adjusted terms. Prices in Sydney have now fallen for three consecutive months – the first such run in nearly five years. </p>
<p>Prices are being driven by softer demand and sentiment in the housing sector. Tighter regulation and higher interest rates have contributed to auction clearance rates falling from their recent peak. As clearance rates dipped further in December, to a three-year low in Sydney, house prices have been correspondingly soft (Figure 1). </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.46%20AM.png" alt="" width="806" height="580"></p>
<p>Falling prices were prevalent across most of the smaller capitals too in December. However, one brighter spot was Brisbane, which experienced rising prices over the past two months. This is consistent with our belief that Queensland’s economy has turned the corner, supporting housing sentiment. In addition, the absence of earlier price growth to the extent of Sydney or Melbourne means that there is less room for unwinding over the near term (Figure 2). </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.57%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.57%20AM.png" alt="" width="797" height="547"></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.31.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.31.55%20AM.png" alt="" width="780" height="552"></p>
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<p><em>Cherelle Murphy is c<span>o-head of Australian economics, ANZ and </span><span>Daniel Gradwell is economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Australian house prices finished 2015 on a whimper: ANZ Research

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It is yet too soon to gauge the true impact of recent macro-prudential measures on the housing market, but recent reads on prices suggest the market could already be close to its peak.</p>
<p>According to CoreLogic’s hedonic price measure, property prices fell in May, including in the major boom cities of Sydney and Melbourne – prices fell for both detached houses and units, although the latter fell by more. Declines were not uniform, however, with dwelling prices rising in both Brisbane and Adelaide.</p>
<p>Mortgage lending has cooled only slightly, but is expected to be weighed down as lenders look to stem the flow of interest only loans (with the biggest impact likely to be seen in investor credit). Mortgage credit rose by a steady (albeit subdued) 0.5% m/m in April, as investor credit actually outpaced owner-occupied credit modestly.</p>
<p>Looming headwinds from prudential tightening, combined with rising housing supply, affordability constraints and modest wages growth (which looks set to continue), validate our expectation for the housing market to cool from here.</p>
<p>That said, while the risks have certainly compounded, we continue to expect an orderly conclusion to the long-running housing boom in major markets, with the profile also helped by additional policy announcements of late to support first home buyers.</p>
<p>Our national forecasts for houses in 2017 are 7.2 percent in 2017 and 4.3 percent in 2018. Unit prices are forecast to rise 6.8 percent in 2017, but will fall modestly in 2018 (-0.4 percent).</p>
<p>Forecasts for 2017 anticipate additional modest growth in coming months, suggesting a degree of downside risk.</p>
<p>Dwelling investment dropped by a greater than expected 4.4 percent in Q4, occurring despite a pipeline of construction projects that is close to record levels – although weather related disruptions may have contributed to the result.</p>
<p>However, it is possible that supply is being constrained by other factors, including deliberate delays by developers in response to rising settlement concerns. Capacity constraints and tighter credit availability are other possible explanations.</p>
<p>Declines were seen across both new and used dwellings (down 4 percent) and alterations &amp; additions (renovations, down 5.2 percent). Growth in dwelling investment over the year was also soft at -2.5 percent y/y.</p>
<p>New building approvals have come off from their highs, but have held steady at higher than expected levels in recent months.</p>
<p>That might suggest the housing construction boom has a little further to run (despite recent declines in dwelling investment), although our economic modelling still points to significant downside risks to the outlook. Overall, dwelling investment is expected to be flat in 2017 (revised down due to very weak Q1 outcome), before turning modestly negative (-0.4 percent and -2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively). </p>
<p>Hints that housing prices are starting to peak will be welcome by the Reserve Bank who remain concerned about elevated household debt. While it is early days, this is consistent with our view that housing prices will slow from here, particularly given further tightening in credit growth as banks are forced to cut <span style="font-size: 12.16px;">back on interest only loans. No rate hikes are likely however until mid- 2019.  </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted </em><a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/"><span class="s2"><em>here</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Property market could already be close to its peak: Alan Oster

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Property prices will rise next year, despite some plateauing in recent weeks.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The late 2015 Melbourne property market has been a remarkably balanced affair in terms of the relative power of buyers and sellers. Supply has been strong, with a record number of 1000-plus auction weekends. But there has also been enough buyers out there to soak up the supply. Only just though, as evidenced by the lack of price movement since the end of winter.</span></p>
<p><span>After the strength of the market over the preceding three years, it is tempting to extrapolate this result as the turning point downwards for the market. But I suspect there is some more capital growth to come off the back of residual momentum.</span></p>
<p><span>Come late February 2016, when the property auction market reopens, I expect buyers will once again outnumber sellers.  This is a common seasonal characteristic of the early autumn market, just as there tends to be a glut of sellers in the late spring market. </span></p>
<p><span>Buyers are typically ‘ready and keen’ to buy sooner in the calendar year after the long summer holidays than sellers.</span></p>
<p><span>There are of course headwinds for the market: a strong pipeline of new properties, especially apartments, adding to supply; tighter prudential lending rules making borrowing slightly more expensive and scarce; overseas buyer demand is moderating after a strengthening of foreign investment rules; falling rental yields; and, not least, the impact of three years’ capital growth on affordability.</span></p>
<p><span>On the other hand, interest rates remain at a historically low level and an interest rate rise is a distant likelihood. Even with softer rental yields, prospective investors enjoy an unusually small ‘funding gap’ – the difference between their borrowing costs and the net rental return.</span></p>
<p><span>Allied to this, participation in the market is likely to be supported by the relatively benign economic conditions: stable unemployment, low inflation and reasonable consumer confidence.”</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Winter Blues?</strong></span></p>
<p><span>The outlook becomes more uncertain in the second half of 2016.</span></p>
<p><span>By June 2016, it will be 15 quarters, or just under four years, since the start of the latest upswing in Melbourne property prices. That’s an impressive run. It is almost inevitable that there will be a pause or even a downturn at some point in the not too distant future. </span></p>
<p><span>However, should it turn out that we are not at the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s cash rate interest rate reduction phase – which may be the case given that few of us would have predicted even a year ago that the cash rate would go as low as today’s 2% – then price growth may persist, albeit modestly, across 2016.”</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Where will prices be in 2026?</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Although fun to crystal ball gaze into 2016, thinking about where prices will be in ten years’ time – in 2026 – is more worthwhile.</span></p>
<p><span>Ultimately, if you’re planning to invest in property next year, it should be with the intention to stick with that asset for at least seven years and ideally ten.  Over that longer time frame, prices are far less volatile and more predictable than they are year-to-year.  Choose a great asset and I can’t tell you whether it will rise or fall in value next year, but I’m very certain it will double in value after 10 years.</span></p>
<p><span>By great assets I mean established one- and two-bedroom apartments and two-bedroom period-style houses on quiet, attractive residential streets in inner suburban Melbourne that are proximate to transport, village-type shopping strips, schools and health facilities. Select older-style architecture and all units should have dedicated off-street parking and be in blocks containing no more than around 20 apartments.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>What to avoid in 2016</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Whilst it is difficult to call when the market will turn, there are certain parts that should be avoided in 2016.</span></p>
<p><span>The Federal Government has been vigorous over recent months in putting in place and policing measures that address widespread non-compliant property purchases by non-residents. Whilst a small proportion of buyers overall, overseas buyers were sufficiently concentrated in some school-belt Melbourne eastern suburbs to push prices beyond fair value.  We anticipate that there may be a pullback in prices in suburbs such as Balwyn, Box Hill and Mont Albert in 2016, as these markets adapt to a fall in demand.</span></p>
<p><span>The high rise multi-apartment sector in our CBD and surrounds will almost certainly struggle under the weight of a massive pipeline of new properties expected to flow into the market over the next 12 months. It’s hard to have a good word to say about a sector where so many buyers are marketed a dream and sold a nightmare. </span></p>
<p><span>But let me try: If making money is not your goal and you want to be in the city, then you may be able to buy an affordable high rise apartment in 2016. But make sure you buy it second hand.  You’ll probably secure a 20%-plus discount on the price of new apartments because you’re not paying for a developer’s marketing costs and you’re dealing with a vendor who cannot sell it to overseas buyers because it isn’t new.</span></p>
<p><em>Paul Nugent is a director of <a href="https://www.wakelin.com.au" target="_blank">Wakelin Property Advisory</a>, an independent firm specialising in acquiring residential property for investors.</em></p>
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Further growth for Melbourne property prices in early 2016: Wakelin's Paul Nugent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Sydney property market creates shocks that spill over to other capital cities, and Hobart is one of the worst affected, new research from the University of New South Wales shows.</p>
<p>The study looked at all eight Australian capital cities. Perth and Darwin’s housing market appeared to be the least affected by shocks originating in other capitals.</p>
<p>“We shouldn’t think of Australian housing markets as being completely isolated. It’s not the case that whatever happens in Sydney doesn’t have any implications for what happens in other housing markets,” says Associate Professor Glenn Otto, the author of the research.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/06/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%2012.18.13%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/06/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%2012.18.13%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Professor Otto examined data on median house prices and rents, from the early 1980s till 2015, released quarterly by the Real Estate Institute of Australia.</p>
<p>He modelled how variations in capital gains and rental returns in each of the cities affected returns in other cities, over twelve month periods.</p>
<p>“You historically don’t see a big share of Brisbane or Melbourne type shocks spilling over to other markets,” Professor Otto noted.</p>
<p>The spillover effects to different capital city housing markets have been increasing over time since the mid 1990s and account for about 40 to 50% of the variance in forecast property returns to houses and units.</p>
<p>“From time to time you’ll get predictions that we’ve built too many units in the Melbourne housing market and there’s an oversupply and its specific to these markets, so we’ll see some price correction.</p>
<p>“The thing I was interested in was, looking at the historical data, was to what extent that correction won’t be specific to the particular market but also will feed through to other markets,” said Professor Otto.</p>
<p>The research also examined the split between houses and units. Although there wasn’t a huge difference in results for the two different dwelling types, the cities most affected by shocks in terms of units were Brisbane and Hobart and for houses it’s Canberra and Hobart.</p>
<p>Professor Otto is now planning to research what causes these spillover effects and what that can tell us about volatility in Australia’s housing market.</p>
<p>“Australian cities are quite isolated so we wouldn’t necessarily expect people to be picking up and moving between cities in response to changes in property prices, but what we might see is investors thinking about where they want to buy and sell property.</p>
<p>“To that extent investors may be becoming an increasingly important part of the housing market, maybe that’s one mechanism by which we can see this kind of effect of one city being transferred to another city,” Professor Otto said.</p>
<p>The research was funded by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project Grant.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Jenni Henderson is a</span>ssistant editor, Business and Economy, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Sydney property market price shocks spread to other capital cities

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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I noted</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> recently that it pays to be wary when studies invariably reveal that the "strongest" property price growth over a carefully specified time period proves to be in a random suburb located somewhere to the west of White Cliffs which you've almost inevitably never heard of.</span>
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<div class="separator">Most likely the sample size for the data series is inappropriately miniscule, and the movements in median price are thus inclined to lurch around accordingly.</div>
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<div class="separator">There was recently some debate, for example, as to whether property prices have actually been soaring even in regional New South Wales towns where the population has been in decline.</div>
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<div>Sure, low interest rates have sparked a boom in Sydney property prices...but out in the sticks and even where the population is declining? <span>I don't believe so - that wouldn't make any sense at all! </span>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Regional median prices</span></strong></div>
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<div>Check out in the two charts below the median price data for Lightning Ridge and Walgett which were two of the quoted suburbs where the median prices have apparently boomed by more than +75 per cent over the past decade despite being home to reportedly declining populations.  </div>
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<div>As you can see there are so few sales in any given month - indeed, there are zero transactions in many instances - that even the smoothed 6mMA average median prices can comfortably more than double (or halve) in the matter of only a few months.<br><br>The median price data is to all intents and purposes meaningless.</div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Like-for-like sales</span></strong><br><br>If you want to work out what is really happening to house prices in a suburb, you ideally need to look at resales of the same properties.</div>
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<div>And even then you need to find like-for-like sales or else improvements can skew the data viciously higher. </div>
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<div>Take the below 1,000sqm block in Lightning Ridge which according to my sales history database appears at first blush to have increased in value to by an outlandish 1,400 per cent since 2003! </div>
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<div>Until, that is, you realise that the owner has recently developed the block with two brand new homes - a 4 bedroom house and a 2 bedroom home - with a combined rental of $550/week.<br><br>This is fairly typical of price action which skews the median price data upwards, but it is clearly manufactured rather than endogenous growth.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.47.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><span>If you look at genuinely like-for-like sales in Lightning Ridge, however, such as the below recent sale on a 1,110sqm block, you'll find that capital growth over the past quarter of a century or so has been much closer to zero per cent. </span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.48.32%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.48.32%20AM.png" alt="" width="786" height="571"></span></div>
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<div><span>And it's a similar story in nearby Walgett, with the below house having achieved capital 'growth' over the past 25 years of negative $1,000.</span></div>
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<div>As for booming prices in Hay, which was another suburb quoted as having boomed by more than +70 per cent despite a declining population, there also appears to be very little exciting to see here when you look at like-for-like resales over time, with total capital growth since 2006 on this example property of only $1,000.</div>
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<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.52.21%20AM.png" alt="" width="773" height="516"></div>
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<div class="separator">Yet anothern NSW suburb which is quoted as having soared in value by more than +70 per cent despite its declining population was Brewarinna. </div>
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<div class="separator">Over the past year the suburb has recorded median price growth of precisely +25.00 per cent - with the median price having increased to exactly $100,000 - apparently impressive numbers, even if they do appear to be suspiciously round in nature.</div>
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<div class="separator">It's only when you realise that the entire data series is based on the grand total of eleven home sales that you realise how meaningless the median price data really can be.  </div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">Now don't get me wrong, I am very much on board with the argument that easy credit flows can be and is one of the primary drivers of dwelling prices.</div>
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<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very fact that today folk can borrow money at a 4 per cent cost of capital instead of double digit mortgage rates which is perhaps <em><strong>the</strong> </em>most significant factor in rising dwelling prices. </div>
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<div class="separator">What I am saying, however, is that median dwelling prices in regional towns should be treated with a great deal of caution, if not dispensed with altogether.</div>
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<div class="separator">As a penultimate point, I would also question whether a Sydney suburb where the population has ticked down by -0.2 per cent really has a "declining" population, when this is more likely to be simply a shift in the composition of households.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.53.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/population-growth-and-property-price" target="_blank">l</a>ack of population growth in some landlocked suburbs - reflective of the fact that they are fully built out - which makes them more appealing for investment purposes. </div>
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<div class="separator">On a related note, you'd have a tough time convincing the residents of, say, Orange, Dubbo, Lismore or Parkes of their supposedly declining populations, whatever the suburb level or LGA stats may say...but that's a debate for another day! </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Rubbery suburb median prices: Pete Wargent

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<p>Every time the Australian economy delivers a lacklustre growth data just like clockwork we start hearing that we can expect another correction in real estate prices as we are now fast tracking an inevitable recession – all a distinct possibility.</p>
<p>How quickly some forget that Australia has now successfully completed a record 24 years of consecutive economic growth. As is the case in Australia where real wages are down this is a global problem where I foresee that the household sector will struggle with the declining weak wage results. This is further evident with the data release this week identifying GDP growth for 2014/15 came in at 2.4% and nominal GDP growth at 1.8% for the 2014/15 financial year, which is the weakest growth in nominal GDP since 1961/62.</p>
<p>As a result of the wages decline what is even more alarming is when one examines stock levels we are witnessing the lowest ever levels despite a record low cash rate. For example, Mosman has 5,890 houses with just 63 on the market today which represents 1.069% of properties on the market and which is also quite common for the vast majority of Sydney suburbs.</p>
<p>Too many are sugar – coating the Sydney property market by focusing on the Sydney median house price, which keeps increasing, and not looking at the grass – roots property market by analysing individual niche market performances which paints an entirely different proposition. When you have individual property markets posting record low stock levels it’s hardly likely we will see significant price growth which is exactly what we are seeing today.</p>
<p>The reality being in Mosman is that presently we have 1.069% of vendors on the market with the remaining 98.931% of property owners not wanting to sell despite a record low cash rate that will almost certainly go lower in 2016. Much of the problem relates solely to job security where individual households are refusing to take on more debt which then has the markets flatlining.</p>
<p>Going on past market corrections which were brought about by unprecedented high turnover of properties by households which has not been the case in the majority of instances. We have seen unusual high turnover of properties by investors to the extent that we are now seeing parity being reached between tenants and investors in terms of rent. That’s good news for those renting given it appears that rental growth has peaked in Sydney where in some cases we are now seeing an oversupply of properties for rent.</p>
<p>This is a positive for the economy given the general rule of thumb is one – third rent, the next third own with a mortgage and the final third own with no mortgage. So it appears now that the Sydney investor market has peaked and we can now expect to see some tapering of prices as investors chase new market opportunities. Brisbane is the stand – out so we expect to see investors jumping all over that market from here on. In the perfect property world this is exactly how investor machinations should operate with Sydney and Melbourne peaking and entering re – calibration mode.</p>
<p>Another interesting thing to look out for is the Sydney vacancy rate which we expect to see grow significantly given the enormous investor movements across Sydney. We can also expect to see some investors flipping investment properties by taking their profits and then re – investing in the new growth markets where depending on when they bought into the market there have been very strong capital appreciation generated.</p>
<p>When the Australian economy produces a poor report card this then forces our elected politicians to concentrate on the much needed reforms that must be implemented as we are now twelve months out from the next Federal Election.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 80</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 65</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 66</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 61</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 42</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 49</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 4</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 4</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 15</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 18</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 19</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 2</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 29</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 35</p>
<p>For this week’s sales in Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate.</p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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Why property markets just got a lot more interesting: Robert Simeon

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<p><span>The significant depreciation of the Aussie dollar has encouraged a record 7.2 million short-term visitors to Australia over the past year.</span></p>
<p><span>But why are people coming?</span></p>
<p><span>The main reason is for holidays (3.24 million), and ever more so from China and its provinces.</span></p>
<p><span>Increasingly, though, folk are also coming to Australia to visit their friends, families and relatives, with more than 2 million people falling into this category.</span></p>
<p><span>The other huge growth area is for education, with a smashing 451,000 education arrivals in the past year, a massive annual increase of well over 17%.</span></p>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/08/Arr.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/10/08/Arr.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>These figures suggest a boost for tourism economies such as the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Tasmania, for example.</div>
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<div>The latest available government data shows that the boom in foreign students is overwhelmingly a capital city dynamic.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Why are people coming Down Under? Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-2450267814035243586" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>There was a significant rebound in business confidence and conditions in May, albeit they still, of course, remain at historically weak levels:</div>
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<div>Business confidence jumped 20 points higher, but is still in negative territory, while business conditions improved by 10 points over the month. </div>
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<div><em>Via the NAB Survey, <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>:</em></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" width="640" height="216" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<br><div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: NAB Survey</em></span></div>
<br><div>Well, it's a decent start, as restrictions are eased.</div>
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<div>There have been some spectacular results for Australia in respect of COVID-19 today, with only two new confirmed cases, with two cases remaining in ICU:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-e6ppm6ZYJwg/Xt8k9UNyS3I/AAAAAAAA2Oc/LoA_SuoFzrcH8CUFePxERXc0g-K9GuVBACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1426"></div>
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<div>Both of the new confirmed cases were returned overseas travellers, held in New South Wales quarantine:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1CquvNlMRtE/Xt8lM9RQcpI/AAAAAAAA2Og/392PQbZziKAnh-d5STbyM0vBC3als33LgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/cv2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1412"></div>
<br>New Zealand is also now officially COVID-19 free.</div>
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<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Business conditions begin to claw back: Pete Wargent

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<p>With another federal election now passed all the political rhetoric about infrastructure will be buried until the next election in three years’ time. Sadly, in Australia our elected governments are only interested in the one thing – taxes.</p>
<p>Since the early 1980’s politicians have conveniently discussed the construction of a high – speed rail link along the east coast where typically nothing has happened, although you can be guaranteed that it will be mentioned again prior to the next federal election. In 2013 the High Speed Rail Study Phase 2 Report estimated that a conventional High Speed Rail Express trip from Sydney to Melbourne would take 2 hours and 44 minutes (about the same time it takes to check into an airport). Sydney to Brisbane would take 2 hours and 37 minutes. Again these reports end up in the too hard basket.</p>
<p>Sydney is now recording the highest prices ever recorded with no signs of easing as the official cash rate keeps going down and this will be the case for easily the next decade. What is urgently required is a high – speed rail link from Sydney to Newcastle and Sydney to the Southern Highlands then to Wollongong. This is the only feasible way that property prices will ease given it’s now urgently required that these three cities are inter – connected.</p>
<p>In 2013 CoreLogic reported that the number of Australian suburbs with a median home value in excess of one million dollars was 264. Their latest data now indicates that this has now jumped to 570.</p>
<p>To provide a frightening case study in June 1992 I sold a home in Ourimbah Road Mosman for $320,000. Every two years I provide the owners with an updated weekly rental and value as the subject property is in a Superannuation Fund. In 2002, our estimated value was $775,000 to $800,00 with a rental of $600.00 to $700.00 per week. In 2006, our estimated value was $1,150,000 to $1,250,000 and the rental $900.00 to $925.00 per week. In 2014, our estimated value was $1,550,000 to $1,600,000 and the rental $1,500.00 to $1,600.00 per week. This week I assessed the property for 2016, our estimated value was $2,300,000 to $2,500,000 and the weekly rental was now $1,800.00 to $2,000.00 per week.</p>
<p>Little wonder the retiring Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens had plenty to say this week on the Australian economy in his farewell speech. Ultimately, low interest rates could only do their job when “someone somewhere has both the balance sheet capacity and the willingness to take on more debt and spend.” Obviously aimed at the federal government to start building better infrastructure in Australia. Private sector debt in Australia for companies equates to 125 per cent of GDP where the government’s debt sits at 40 per cent of GDP.</p>
<p>It’s quite simple that the Sydney property market needs to expand to Newcastle, Hunter Valley, Southern Highlands and Wollongong. Our federal government is spending money on public servants and social services with very little going into new infrastructure which would then drive development, employment and ease the ever growing property prices. Sydney in this instance would be the perfect test case to identify that if you get all the market machinations right you can ease property prices.</p>
<p>The only problem with this is that nobody wants to push and prod the elected governments of the day into direct action. It’s high time politicians became accountable instead of prime ministers claiming the mantle as being the infrastructure prime minister. In a report on High Speed Rail I read: “fast trains to connect the eastern seaboard cities of Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney and Brisbane are feasible, practical and profitable today. The project can be done for about $30 billion, about a quarter of the cost estimated on old paradigms in 2013. And it can be done in less than seven years, not the 30 to 35 years previously suggested.”</p>
<p>“The trains could be the 21st century equivalent of the Snowy Mountains Scheme, and would need little or no direct government funding.”</p>
<p>So one needs to ask the question – why then is nothing happening? Unfortunately, the answer may well be that Australian politicians have no train of thought.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 47</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 42</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 51</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 41</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 44</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 10</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 17</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 16</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 8</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 25</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 20</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 20</p>
<p><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></p>
<p><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000.</em></p>
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