Inflation Rate

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EXPERT OBSERVER
For the seventh quarter in a row inflation has underperformed market expectations with the headline CPI lifting 0.4% in the quarter compared to an median expectation of 0.5% qtr.
Westpac’s forecast was for 0.4% qtr.
Interestingly the mix of sectors prices was broadly as we had expected with some small downside and upside surprises but the overall print was slightly to the downside of our expectations.
At two decimal places the CPI rose 0.36% in the quarter while our forecast was 0.42%.
Following the December quarter CPI Westpac argued that searching for inflation in the Australian economy has been a fruitless as Vladimir and Estragon’s wait for Godot.
We are now looking at the play having a record run with the ABS for while there may be some anecdotal hints that inflation is around, the ABS is yet to report its appearance in any solid form in the CPI Survey.
Core inflation came in as expected rising 0.5% qtr (0.46% at two decimal places so a soft 0.5%) suggesting that Australian forecasters, as a group, are broadly getting the core inflation pulse corrected but continue to underestimate the deflationary pulse that is hitting certain sectors leading to greater than usual discounting (or less than usual post sales repricing) in those sectors.
The six month annualised pace of headline inflation printed 1.6%yr, down from 2.2%yr in Q1 and the recent peak of 2.5%yr in Q4 2017.
For core inflation, the six month annualised pace is now 2.0%yr from 2.0%yr in Q1, 1.7%yr in Q4 2017and 2.0%yr in Q3.
With core inflation just at the bottom of the RBA’s target band, inflation remains well contained at a very modest pace. This would leave the RBA quite comfortable with the current stance of monetary policy.
Without a doubt the Australian economy remains locked in a low inflation environment. Sectors that are experiencing some inflation –particularly tobacco and auto fuel then to a lesser extent, housing, health and education – are mostly being offset by the disinflationary pressure of the competitive squeeze in consumer goods. There are no signs we are about to experience a broader upswing in prices that you would normally expect to see at this late stage of an economic recovery.
Breaking it down a bit further prices came in broadly as expected with a mix of upside and downside surprises. However, given that the two decimal place print from the CPI was just 0.36%, compared to our forecast for 0.42%, then overall there was a very modest downside surprise in the survey.
Food prices were a touch softer than expected falling 0.4% vs our –0.2% forecast with a larger than expected fall in fruit &amp; vegetables (–2.7% vs –0.5%). Alcohol &amp; tobacco was stronger than expected (1.6% vs 0.6% expected) with a robust 2.8% rise in tobacco prices.
Clothing &amp; footwear came in as expected with a 1.3% seasonal re-pricing while housing costs were close to expectations rising 0.2% vs 0.1% expected. However the mix was very interesting with rents flat (0.2% expected), dwelling purchase rose 0.8% (vs. 0.5% expected) while the fall in utilities was great than expected (–1.2% vs –0.9% expected).
An area where the downside pressure appear to be significant was the smaller than expected seasonal re-pricing for household contents &amp; services (0.3% vs 0.8% expected) while health rose just 1.9% vs. the 2.6% expected this is despite a smaller than expected fall in pharmaceutical (–1.0% vs –1.6%)
Tradables rose 0.5% in the June quarter. Tradables goods rose 0.4% mainly due to automotive fuel (+6.9%qtr), audio, visual &amp; computing media and services (+3.0%qtr), garments for women (+2.2%qtr), and glassware, tableware &amp; household utensils (+3.5%qtr). The tradable services component rose 1.3%qtr due to international holiday travel and accommodation (+1.3%qtr) in response to peak period pricing for Europe and America. Tradables represent approximately 35% of the CPI.
Non-tradables rose 0.3% in the June quarter. Non-tradables goods rose 0.7%, mainly due to tobacco (+2.8%qtr), new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers (+0.8%qtr) and takeaway and fast foods (+0.8%qtr). The non-tradable services component rose 0.2%, mainly due to medical and hospital services (+3.1%qtr) and child care (+1.0%qtr). Non-tradables represent approximately 65% of the CPI.
Low inflation remains embedded in the economy.
We have seen inflationary expectations drift a little higher (we suspect rising fuel prices and until this year, rising power bills are responsible for this) but despite this the ABS CPI Survey again revealed little to suggest that the Australian economy is about to break out of its low inflation trap.
Through 2017, the big story was the rise in energy bills, particularly for electricity but also gas. However, in late 2018 there was a significant change in the wholesale electricity market as the expansion of renewable generation exceeded expectations, and power storage facilities enter commercial application, driving down wholesale prices. Some modest discounting of power bills has been reported and we are expecting this to continue through the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 which was a key reason for the recent downgrade to our inflation profile, for both headline and core, out to the end of 2019.
We will provide a full update on our forecasts in the CPI Economic Bulletin but at this stage, given that the run of soft updates that point to the Australian economy being in a low inflation trap, the risks to these forecasts still lie to the downside.
Justin Smirk is a commodity analyst for Westpac
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

CPI inflation is below expectations for the seventh quarter running: Justin Smirk

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6 per cent in the December quarter 2017, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures reveal.
It was below expectation, with some economists suggesting there was still scope for another rate cut.
Certainly no early RBA hike here! was Shane Oliver's immediate tweet.
The latest figure follows a rise of 0.6 per cent in the September quarter 2017.
The Australian dollar dipped on the latest data. The most significant price rises this quarter are automotive fuel (+10.4%), tobacco (+8.5%), domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+6.3%) and fruit (+9.3%). 
These price rises were partially offset by falls in international holiday travel and accommodation (-1.7%), audio visual and computing equipment (-3.5%) and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.4%). The CPI rose 1.9 per cent through the year to December quarter 2017 having increased 1.8 per cent through the year to September quarter 2017.
What the economist say
Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman, said while the annual CPI rose 1.9 per cent, annual inflation in most East Coast cities rose above 2 per cent, due in part to the strength in prices related to housing.
"Softer economic conditions in Darwin and Perth have resulted in annual inflation remaining subdued at 1.0 and 0.8 per cent respectively."
AMP Capital's Shane Oliver shared the below chart on his Twitter.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/1/31/inflation%20below.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/31/inflation%20below.jpg" alt="">
Economist Stephen Koukoulas says the inflation data continue's to scream "rate cut."
"Another qtr below target. Underlying looks like it's decelerating RBA says "sorry folks" to the 730,000 people unemployed, 1.1 million underemployed &amp; the 12 million lucky to get a 2% pay rise," Koukoulas tweeted.
IFM chief economist Alex Joiner disagreed.
"AU  CPI data slightly weaker than expected on headline and 'core' measures, unlikely to shift the RBA's assessment of the inflation/wages environment materially at next week's board meeting."<a class="gmail-twitter-hashtag gmail-pretty-link gmail-js-nav" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ausbiz?src=hash"> </a>
Veteran ABC business journalist Peter Ryan says the RBA may be concerned at softer trimmed mean of 0.4 percent and 1.8 percent, with CPI inflation "a little weaker than expected."
CommSec's Ryan Felsman noted inflation is still under control.
"Inflationary pressures remain subdued so the Reserve Bank will remain on the sidelines for some time yet.
"But there was a modest lift in the rate of annual headline inflation, finishing a touch below the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 2.0 per cent for 2017. Petrol, tobacco, fruit and domestic travel and accommodation prices all rose over the quarter.
"Though this was partially offset by the continued decline in computing and telecommunications-related goods and services prices. 
"Underlying inflation - which excludes the more volatile energy and food components – also remained below the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2-3 per cent. 
"But the 2017 annual print was a touch above the Board’s 1.75 per cent forecast. 
"And underlying inflation looks well placed to be a touch above the Reserve Bank forecast for 2018 of 1.75 per cent.
"Still, not enough to prompt any action on interest rates," he said.
Pete Wargent shared a chart on underlying inflation which sits at 1.9 percent.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/1/31/wargent_chart.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/31/wargent_chart.jpg" alt="">
To find out more information <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/6401.0Media%20Release1Dec%202017?OpenDocument" target="_blank">click here.</a>  
Westpac had suggested there was a downside risk to the December quarter CPI.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Inflation still weak as prices rise 0.6 percent in December quarter

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment declined by 1.2 percent in August from 96.6 in July to 95.5 in August. 
The consumer mood has deteriorated over the last year with August marking the ninth consecutive month where pessimists are outnumbering optimists. We have not seen such a succession of weak reads since 2008.
The survey detail suggests increased pressures on family finances; concerns around interest rates; and housing affordability in NSW and Victoria are more than outweighing increased confidence around jobs.
The further weakening in consumer sentiment comes despite some positives leading into this month’s survey. The RBA again opted to leave interest rates unchanged at its August meeting while the Governor sent a clear signal in a recent speech that rates were on hold in the immediate future. Other positives include: a continued improvement in labour market conditions; lower petrol prices (average pump prices down 15c/litre nationally since early June) and a booming Australian dollar, which briefly touched USD 0.80.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%2010.48.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%2010.48.03%20AM.png" alt="">
The Index components point to clear pressure on family finances. The sub-index tracking views on ‘finances vs a year ago’ fell 5.1% to 78.1, the lowest level since June 2014, when consumers were shocked by the Abbott government’s first Budget. Much of the weakness is likely to reflect a mix of weak growth in wages; increases in key costs such as electricity and emerging concerns about rising interest rates.
Despite the bleak picture around current finances, consumer expectations are more upbeat. The sub-index tracking expectations for ‘finances over the next 12 months’ firmed 2.1% to 100.4 in August. A reading over 100 indicates that optimists slightly outnumber pessimists. Consumers were also a touch more positive on the economy: the ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index nudged up 0.4%; and the ‘economic conditions, next 5 years’ sub-index posted a stronger 2.3% gain, though coming off a sharp 9.6% drop over the previous two months.
However the weak picture on current finances appears to be affecting consumer attitudes towards major purchases. The ‘time to buy major a household item’ sub-index fell 4.9%, unwinding most of the 6% improvement seen over June- July. Notably, the pull-back has come despite increasingly aggressive price discounting amongst retailers and a likely further improvement in purchasing power from a higher Australian dollar – up over 6c US from its low in May to nearly US 0.80.
Some of the softening in sentiment in August may be a delayed reaction to recent mortgage rate increases – the major banks raised rates on ‘interest only’ mortgages in  late June. After posting a surprisingly firm 4.7 percent rise in July, sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage fell 6.3 percent in August. Note that despite the increase in ‘interest only’ rates, the average standard variable mortgage rate declined a little between June and August.
Perhaps more importantly, most consumers expect rates to move higher over the next year. Responses to an extra question this month around the outlook for mortgage rates show that, of those consumers with a view, 71 percent expect rates to be higher in 12 months; 27 percent expect rates to be steady; and just 2.6 percent expect further rate cuts. That compares to 60 percent expecting higher rates when the question was last run in February and just 37 percent this time last year.
The one relative bright spot for consumers continues to be around jobs. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 2.6 percent to 132.5 in August  (recall that lower reads mean fewer consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead). The Index is now at its lowest level since November 2011.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%2010.49.23%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%2010.49.23%20AM.png" alt="">
Sentiment around housing improved slightly in August. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index edged 0.8% higher but remained at a low level by historical standards. The detail shows mixed moves across different regions with buyer sentiment falling towards very low levels in Sydney and Melbourne – where affordability pressures remain acute – but surging in Western Australia, where affordability has improved markedly.
Consumer expectations for house prices also firmed slightly overall. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations rose 0.6%, extending last month’s 8.6% bounce. Expectations consolidated in the major eastern states but rose strongly in WA which posted its second strongest reading since late 2014.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on September 5. There is no doubt that the Board will continue to leave the cash rate on hold. The more interesting question is whether, as expected by markets and signalled by consumers’ responses in this survey, the RBA will raise rates next year. High business confidence and improving employment conditions along with the Bank’s own upbeat growth forecasts support the case for higher rates. On the other hand we continue to see evidence of a downbeat consumer and signs that the housing markets are set to slow under the weight of stretched affordability.
Our view is that these factors will slow growth and, along with an inflation rate which remains stubbornly below the Bank’s target zone, will preclude the need for higher rates next year. 
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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