Capital Gain

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<h2 class="mt0">According to the CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index, dwelling values were absolutely flat across the combined capitals during December, with negative movements in Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra being offset by a rise in dwelling values across the remaining five capital cities.</h2>
The Sydney housing market was the main drag on the December results, with dwelling values down 1.2%, while values were down 1.5% in Adelaide and 1.1% in Canberra. The remaining capitals saw a rise in dwelling values, led by a 2.3% bounce in Perth values and a 1.0% rise in Melbourne values over the month.
<h2 class="mt0">Index results as at December 31, 2015</h2>
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After dwelling values had been broadly rising since June 2012, the December quarter results revealed a 1.4% fall in dwelling values across the combined capitals, the largest quarter on quarter fall since December 2011.
Six of the eight capital cities recorded a negative result over the December quarter, with weaker conditions in Sydney and Melbourne acting as the greatest drag on capital city performance. 
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The largest quarterly fall was recorded in Sydney, where dwelling values were down 2.3% over the final three months of the year, followed by Melbourne, where dwelling values were 1.9% lower. The only capital cities to show a rise in dwelling values over the December quarter were Brisbane (+1.3%) and Adelaide (+0.6%).
This was in contrast to the first three quarters of 2015, where capital city dwelling values rose by 9.3%, largely driven by a 14.1% surge in Sydney values and a 13.3% increase in Melbourne. 
In stark contrast, the final quarter of 2015 showed Sydney as the weakest performer of any capital city, with dwelling values down by -2.3% while Melbourne recorded the second weakest result of -1.9%.
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The complete 2015 calendar year results reveal a 7.8% increase in capital city dwelling values which is the lowest rate of capital gain over a calendar year since 2012 when values slipped 0.4% lower over the full year.
Highlighting the diversity in the capital city housing markets, dwelling values fell across four of the eight capitals in the 2015 calendar year. The largest of these falls were recorded in Perth, down by 3.7%, and Darwin down by 3.6%. Hobart and Adelaide also showed subtle falls of 0.7% and 0.1%. 
Despite the recent weakening of housing market conditions in Sydney and Melbourne, the two largest capital city housing markets still recorded much stronger annual gains than all other capital cities,  11.5% in Sydney and 11.2% in Melbourne. Dwelling values in Brisbane and Canberra were up a more sustainable 4.1% over the year.
The wealth created from housing in Sydney and Melbourne has been exceptional over the past twelve months.
In dollar terms, Sydney home owners have seen approximately $82,000 added to their wealth thanks to the strong capital gains over the year while home owners in Melbourne have seen the value of their dwelling grow by approximately $60,400. Brisbane home owners are $18,560 better off while Canberra owners have seen the value of their homes increase by approximately $21,900.
Home owners in the remaining capital cities have seen some erosion of their wealth via falls in the value of their dwelling. The largest losses have occurred in Perth where the average dwelling is now worth approximately $19,970 less than it was 12 months ago, while Darwin home owners have seen the value of their home shrink by a similar $18,150.
The annual decline has been milder in Adelaide and Hobart, however dwelling values are still $515 lower in Adelaide over the year and down $2,430 in Hobart.
The slowdown in housing market conditions across Sydney and Melbourne in the last half of 2015 is being driven by a range of factors that can best be described as both organic and externally influenced.
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Organic market conditions have been derived from affordability pressures, rental yield compression and cyclical factors, while factors from external influences largely stem from a change in the regulatory framework introduced by APRA which has made it more expensive and difficult for investors to access housing finance. Added to this is higher mortgage rates and more restrictive credit policies and loan servicing requirements.
 
Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Capital gains stall in the final month of the year: Tim Lawless

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GUEST OBSERVER
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Throughout November, capital city dwelling values rose by 0.2 percent. 
While the headline results remained in positive growth territory, the monthly capital gain reading was also the softest result since December 2015 when capital city dwelling values were unchanged over the month. The combined regional areas of Australia showed a weaker result with house values falling by 0.2 percent over the month. 
The soft performance across the combined capital city reading was attributable to a 1.5 percent fall in the Melbourne index, while all other capital cities recorded a positive month-on-month result.
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Delving into the Melbourne results in more detail showed that unit values were down a larger 3.2 percent in November, while Melbourne house values declined by 1.3 percent over the month. 
The November figures show that capital city dwelling values rose by 1.7 percent over the three months of spring; a substantial improvement over last year. Spring 2015 saw capital city dwelling values fall by 0.2 percent, with auction clearance rates dipping below 60 percent in late November and early December. 
In contrast, auction clearance rates held firm in the mid-70 percent range throughout spring this year, with Sydney clearance rates holding around the 80 percent mark over the past three months. 
On an annual basis, every capital city except for Perth is now showing a positive annual trend in dwelling value growth. The highest annual growth rate is evident in Sydney and Melbourne where dwelling values are now 13.1 percent and 11.3 percent higher respectively, reflecting a steeper upwards trajectory in growth over the second half of the year. The Hobart and Canberra markets have also seen some acceleration in growth rate trends with dwelling values up 8.5 percent, and 8.4 percent respectively over the past twelve months.
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For the first time since February 2015, Darwin’s annual growth rate has moved back into the black and recorded a 1.1 percent rise in dwelling values over the past year. Results for smaller cities such as Darwin, can tend to show higher levels of volatility. 
The November results also show a rise in transaction numbers across the Darwin market over recent months, supporting the moderate improvement in market conditions that the hedonic index is showing. 
Currently the national growth cycle has been in play for 4.5 years, with capital city dwelling values rising by 42.2 percent over the cycle to date. 
Disaggregating this growth figure highlights the diversity in market conditions with Sydney and Melbourne at one end of the spectrum experiencing an increase in dwelling values over this period of 67.3 percent and 46.3 percent respectively, while at the other end of the spectrum, Perth and Darwin values have broadly declined since 2014. Perth values are 6.9 percent higher since the cycle commenced in June 2012, while Darwin values are 13.8 percent higher over this period. 
It appears that higher unit supply is progressively weighing down the capital gains across Melbourne’s unit sector, with annual capital gains tracking at 3.9 percent for Melbourne units compared with a 12.2 percent annual gain in Melbourne house values. 
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A similar trend can be seen in Brisbane, where the supply of units across key inner city regions is also high. Brisbane house values were up 4.3 percent over the past twelve months compared with a 0.9 percent fall in unit values. 
With the unit supply pipeline remaining substantial, we expect to see a continuation of weaker market conditions across those unit markets where high supply levels are dampening the prospects for higher value growth.
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Rental yields reached a new record low in November across the combined capitals index due to dwelling values continuing to rise at a faster pace than weekly rental rates. The average gross rental yield across combined capital city dwellings is now recorded at 3.2 percent, down from 3.5 percent a year ago and 4.1 percent five years ago. 
Sydney and Melbourne share the lowest yield profile for detached housing, with an average of 2.8% in both cities, while the gross yield on Sydney units has fallen well below Melbourne’s at 3.8 percent. 
With rental markets remaining soft, it is likely there will be further yield compression across those markets where residential property values are rising. 
The only market segments where yields have improved over the past 12 months were the Hobart and Canberra unit markets where rental rates have shown a higher growth rate than unit values. 
It appears as though the low yield profile is no deterrent to investors, with ABS housing finance data showing a consistent rise in finance commitments for investment purposes since May this year. 
Clearly investors are continuing to see housing as the preferred investment option, despite low yields and a mature growth cycle. 
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Settled transaction numbers nationally have reversed their downward trend over recent months with CoreLogic estimates of settled sales rising to the highest level in a year. Even though transaction numbers have improved, settled sales remain 9.6 percent lower than a year ago. Every state and territory has shown a reduction in settled sales over the year, however the largest fall has been in Victoria with a 14.9 percent year-on-year decline. In contrast, CoreLogic mortgage valuation platforms experienced record daily volumes earlier this week, reflecting the robust level of late season market activity. 
As the last month of spring, November has seen listing numbers ramp up more substantially with the total number of homes advertised for sale over the past month now tracking higher than a year ago. The latest CoreLogic listing counts show there were approximately 113,500 properties advertised for sale over the past 28 days across the capital cities, which is 2.4 percent higher than the same time a year ago. 
Despite higher listing numbers at a combined capitals level, the hottest markets are still showing listing numbers lower than a year ago. Sydney listings are 9.4 percent lower than last year, while advertised stock levels in Melbourne are 2.9 percent lower. Hobart listings have fallen sharply compared with last year, to be 29 eprcent lower, whilst Canberra stock is 7.6 percent lower than a year ago. 
Lower stock levels in these markets are likely to be one factor contributing to the upwards pressure on dwelling values. Vendors are still very much in the driver’s seat in these markets and buyers have little in the way of leverage to negotiate, or time to consider their purchase decision. 
The strong selling conditions can also be seen in the average selling time, which is tracking at 31 and 32 days in Sydney and Melbourne respectively. Canberra and Hobart are showing the third and fourth fastest average selling times across the capital cities, at 44 and 48 days respectively. 
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With real estate agent activity across CoreLogic platforms easing over the past two weeks, it suggests that we may have moved through the peak of new listings activity. Additionally, as we move into the first month of summer, the housing market is likely to remain active for another two weeks before we start to see the normal seasonal slowdown in buyer numbers. 
After four and a half years of strong value growth, Mr Lawless said it’s hard to imagine a reacceleration in property values could be long lived. 
Affordability constraints are creating high barriers to entry, particularly in Sydney, and lenders are becoming more cautious in their lending practices. The supply pipeline is substantial for inner city units, which is likely to dampen value growth in these precincts as well as dent buyer confidence and push vacancy rates higher. 
Additionally, buyer enthusiasm could be muffled by speculation that interest rates may rise late next year, with fixed rates already starting to edge higher. 
With household debt at record levels, Australians are very sensitive to the cost of debt, and an expectation that the period of record low mortgage rates is approaching an end may reduce buyer demand. 
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Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Sydney dwelling values up 13 percent over the year while Perth remains in decline: Tim Lawless

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GUEST OBSERVER
The latest CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index reveals further gains across most capital city housing markets last month, taking the current growth phase into its 52nd month.
Capital city dwelling values continued to show a strong headline rate of growth over the September quarter, with the CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index rising 2.9 percent over the past three months. The combined capital city index, which is heavily weighted towards the Sydney and Melbourne markets, recorded a 1.0% month-on-month gain, taking capital city dwelling values 41.3% higher since the growth cycle commenced in June 2012.
Growth conditions were substantially different from region-to-region. The top performing market was Melbourne where dwelling values pushed 5.0% higher over the third calendar quarter, due largely to a strong rise in house values (+5.2%) which balanced a softer result for the unit market (+2.9%). Canberra showed the second highest rate of growth over the quarter with values up 4.5%, followed by Sydney at 3.5%.
In contrast, the weakest housing market over the quarter was Darwin where dwelling values declined by 4.5%, to be 11.1% lower than the most recent 2014 peak in property values and 13.9% lower than the previous 2010 peak in dwelling values. Perth dwelling values also slipped 3.2% lower over the quarter to take the cumulative decline in values to 10.4% since their December 2014 peak, and 5.2% below the previous peak in 2010. Brisbane dwelling values also slipped lower over the quarter falling by a marginal 0.3%, attributable mostly to larger declines across the unit sector.
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<h3>Index results as at September 30, 2016</h3>
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Darwin dwelling values are now roughly equivalent to what they were seven years ago, while in Perth, dwelling values have retraced back to 2007 levels.
The combined regional markets of Australia, where the measure of value growth lags by one month, saw house values slip 1.1% lower over the three months to the end of August. While modest declines were recorded across most of the ‘rest of state’ housing markets, the weakest conditions continue to be experienced in regional Western Australia, where house values have fallen 12.4% over the past twelve months. The weak housing market conditions across the regional areas of Western Australia were also highlighted in the recent CoreLogic Pain and Gain report, which showed one third of houses which resold over the June quarter did so at gross loss.
While the headline rate of growth remains positive across most cities, the majority of capital cities have seen their growth trend moderate compared with a year ago. The only capital city markets where the current quarterly rate of growth was higher (compared with the September 2015 quarter) was Hobart, Canberra and Adelaide.
The quarterly pace of capital gains in Sydney peaked over the June quarter of 2015 at 7.4% and, similarly, Melbourne’s quarterly rate of capital gain peaked at 7.9% over the same quarter.
Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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Further gains across most capital city housing markets: Tim Lawless

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Detached housing values in Melbourne have increased 12.3% higher over the year, eclipsing the 4.8% rise in unit values.
CoreLogic RP Data’s head of research Tim Lawless said the difference in value increases between houses and units could be related to supply.
"The underlying land component driving detached housing values higher at a time when new apartment supply has seen a substantial boost from new construction,” Mr Lawless said. 
According to the CoreLogic RP Data July Home Value Indices 2015 report, Melbourne's capital rate gain surpassed Sydney over the last three months posting 6.1% to the three months ending July 31. Capital gain in Sydney for the quarter ams in at 5.4%.
Mr Lawless said growth in Sydney wasn’t quite as strong over the rolling quarter, which is the highest rate of growth since the March quarter this year (5.8%). 
“To date, the capital cities have seen remarkable differences over the growth cycle which broadly commenced at the end of May 2012 and since that time dwelling values across our combined capitals index have increased by 30.4%," Mr Lawless said.
"Sydney values are 47.9% higher over the current cycle and Melbourne values are 32.1% higher while every other capital city has seen growth of less than 13% over the same period. This highlights the extent to which the Sydney and Melbourne markets have outperformed other markets over the past three years. 
“While Sydney and Melbourne values continue to boom, the next best performing city, Brisbane, has seen dwelling values rise by just 3.9% over the past twelve months. Based on the median dwelling price, Sydney prices are now 72% higher than Brisbane’s and Melbourne’s are 24% higher,” he said.
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Melbourne detached housing values climb 12.3%: CoreLogic RP Data

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The annual rate of capital gain is at its slowest since September 2013 according to CoreLogic.
CoreLogic's Housing Market and Economic Update for August notes combined capital city capital gains for house for the past 12 months is at 6.1 percent, with units at 6 percent.
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