<p>One of the primary characteristics of a university campus is its location in high-amenity, well-connected suburbs, as it caters to the thousands of students who walk through its doors every day.</p>

<p>It’s this enviable central location that makes Hamton’s newest neighbourhood so appealing to discerning buyers. The 1.6-hectare site was formerly home to a University of Melbourne campus.</p>

<p>This relocation paved the way for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hamton">Hamton</a>, best known for their $3 billion joint venture development Moonee Valley Park, a vibrant new residential community emerging around the Moonee Valley Racecourse.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149097 project_image_fid=327680]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/scotch-hill-gardens-hawthorn-147-robinson-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Scotch Hill Gardens</a> benefits from excellent transport connections and local amenities, further enhanced by the revitalisation of Bills Street delivered as part of the development. Thanks to its history as a university campus, the site is within five minutes of Glenferrie and Auburn Villages and 10 minutes to Kooyong Station.</p>

<p>In addition, the site lies within the prestigious Scotch Hill catchment, which includes highly sought-after educational institutions such as Scotch College, Bialik, and Auburn Primary and Auburn High. This makes it an attractive location for both young families and working professionals.</p>

<p>Understanding that the location would appeal to owner-occupiers, particularly rightsizers and downsizers, Hamton focused on creating a collection of residences tailored to this demographic. The design prioritised community over density, with a series of low-rise buildings nestled within nature.</p>

<p data-end="2852" data-start="2587">[smartcode_project:default project_id=149097 project_image_fid=327652]</p>

<p>The development retains 77 established trees on the site and will add a further 151, creating a unique topography visible from the upper levels of the building. A collaboration between placemaking specialists Woods Bagot and landscape architect Tract, the design dedicates over 40 percent of the 1.6-hectare site to landscaped green open space, seamlessly woven between the low-rise buildings.</p>

<p>Landscaping subtly defines boundaries between public and private zones, ensuring a harmonious blend of spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2314" data-start="2069">[smartcode_project:default project_id=149097 project_image_fid=327686]</p>

<p>Inspired by nature, the masterplan reflects the organic formations of lily pads on a pond, discreet yet interconnected, sitting lightly within their context. Following the principles of “nature-based cities,” the site integrates nature, amenity, wellness, and community.</p>

<p>This commitment to nature complements the already well-established landscape nearby. Adjacent to Gardiners Creek, the site offers both recreational and ecological benefits, while the Yarra River trails, Patterson Reserve, and Hawthorn Velodrome, further enhance the area’s outdoor amenities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149097 project_image_fid=327694]</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a range of facilities, including a bathhouse with wellness amenities, a gym, co-working spaces, and communal dining and lounge areas.</p>

<p>Hamton will announce a builder in the coming months. Demolition of the old Campus is underway with construction on the first stage, anticipated to commence early 2026.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149097]</p>


Joel Robinson

Scotch Hill Gardens, a new life for the former University of Melbourne Hawthorn Campus

<p>Brisbane-based developer Red &amp; Co. is venturing into the Gold Coast apartment market, spending $8 million on a vacant site in Varsity Lake.</p>

<p>The plan is to developer 156 apartments on the 2,857sqm, 22 Lake Street site, near Varsity Central Park.</p>

<p>Colliers Queensland Residential Development Sites Director Troy Linnane said Colliers had been &nbsp;working closely with Red &amp; Co. to help them secure their first Gold Coast site, with this site offering a great opportunity due to its location and existing approval.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This off-market transaction highlights the value of strong market knowledge and relationships, we were able to align the right buyer with the right site given the relationships we have with many active &nbsp;developers seeking sites across the SEQ market,” Linnane said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Those groups with in-house construction capability or strong builder alliances are leading market activity as they are best positioned to deliver projects in the current market."</p>

<p>Linnane said with&nbsp;confidence strengthening in 2025, they are seeing increased competition for prime development sites.</p>

<p>“Developers are actively seeking well-located sites, to take advantage of the under supply of &nbsp;apartment stock and the significant uplift in revenues due to strong buyer demand."</p>

<p><img alt="22 Lake St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fcd9176e-4e38-4519-a868-0748419c1d2b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/22_Lake_Street_001.jpg?VersionId=Z7tUSkVLqv8qf.JTyMXmzasxvudP_u2p" /></p>

<p>Colliers Queensland Residential Site Sales Executive Jackson Robinson said the transaction reflected confidence in the market and increasing demand for well-located, DA-approved sites to develop into &nbsp;housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Red &amp; Co. recognised the depth of unmet demand for well-priced apartment stock on the Gold &nbsp;Coast, particularly in sought-after suburbs like Varsity Lakes, which offers excellent connectivity, expansive views and close proximity to major employment and education hubs,” Robinson said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>There will be a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, with views over&nbsp;Lake Orr and out to Burleigh Headland and the Hinterland, with additional outlooks north towards the Broadbeach skyline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Red &amp; Co., led by co-founders Keiran Foster and David Laverty, have previously completed several developments across Brisbane.</p>


Red & Co.’s first acquisition on the Gold Coast demonstrates increasing  confidence in the Gold Coast market

Red & Co. plots new Varsity Lake apartments

<p data-end="148" data-start="74">There’s no slowing down Gold Coast builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/immerse-projects">Immerse Projects</a>.</p>

<p data-end="325" data-start="150">Led by construction industry veteran John Kearney, the developer has made its move into the Brisbane apartment market, securing a prime site on Sylvan Road in Toowong.</p>

<p data-end="429" data-start="327">It’s a location filled with nostalgia for Kearney, who studied at the nearby University of Queensland.</p>

<p>"It feels like a full circle moment," Kearney told Apartments.com.au.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“I spent many nights at the Regatta Hotel just down the road — as have most people in Brisbane. It’s one of the city’s most well-known hotels, and with several cafes, restaurants, and a CityCat stop nearby, it’s become an even more attractive place to live.”</p>

<p>Kearney describes Toowong as a suburb with real depth.</p>

<p>"The suburb attracts everyone, from students to retirees, and that's what makes it interesting."</p>

<p>He also noted the opportunity to take advantage of significant view corridors from the new development site: across Toowong Memorial Park, north to the city, and east along the Brisbane River.</p>

<p>CBRE’s Will Carman and John Nucifora brokered the sale of the 1,760 sqm site, citing strong demand for strategically located development opportunities in Brisbane’s inner suburbs.</p>

<p>"Its proximity to transport, retail, and educational facilities made it an opportunity of strong interest to the broader development community," Carman said.</p>

<p><img alt="22-24 Sylvan Road" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="49eb466f-69dc-4790-8d50-5173d0cf104a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/22-24%20Sylvan%20%20Rd%20Toowong_Markups.jpg?VersionId=u4_IGzpYLPFfAZSsgCZynov3bm7umwJ." /></p>

<p>Nucifora said the acquisition reflects confidence in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a>, and more broadly Brisbane, as a market of strength for integrated builder developer groups.</p>

<p>"Those with an integrated model, or with strong existing relationships with builders have continued to be at the forefront of development acquisitions over the past two-year period."</p>

<p>Kearney has long operated Greyburn Constructions, and recently expanded into multi-residential development, with great success. They've delivered a new project in Kirra, and they're currently working towards completion at&nbsp;Ombre Robina. Then they have a new project in Kirra, on Haig Street.</p>

<p>They will submit a development application for Toowong later this year.&nbsp;</p>


It’s a location filled with nostalgia for Kearney, who studied at the nearby University of Queensland.



First look: Immerse Projects moves into Brisbane apartment market with Toowong site acquisition

<p data-end="405" data-start="189">A track record of delivering new projects not just across the Sunshine Coast, but in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/bokarina-qld-4575">Bokarina</a> specifically, gave builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> (GVG) all the IP needed to make Bask even more refined.&nbsp;</p>

<p>After completing Zinc Bokarina last year - positioned directly adjacent to Bask - GVG leveraged years of feedback from original purchasers and current residents, enabled by its community-focused approach and ongoing engagement.</p>

<p data-end="595" data-start="407">[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333359]</p>

<p>The feedback pointed to two clear themes: larger apartments with more bedrooms, and amenity suited to the active downsizer.</p>

<p>GVG then designed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bask-bokarina-38-bokarina-boulevard-bokarina-qld-4575">Bask</a> - a collection of one to four-bedroom apartments - tailored to the end user: local downsizers or those seeking more spacious holiday homes than a compact getaway by the beach.</p>

<p data-end="925" data-start="726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333361]</p>

<p>A pool was essential, but a lap pool wasn’t. Instead, GVG designed a heated plunge pool, ideal for a refreshing dip. Key to the amenity offering were shared spaces designed to foster community connection. These include shaded garden areas with barbecue facilities, a firepit zone, and a communal herb and vegetable garden.&nbsp;</p>

<p>There’s also a fully equipped gym, designed specifically for the lifestyle exerciser.&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="1335" data-start="1250">[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333365]</p>

<p>Another key insight was the desire not just for pet-friendly living - but for a development that embraces it. GVG listened and installed a dedicated dog wash bay, perfect for rinsing off after a trip to the dog-friendly Bokarina Beach, just 250 metres from Bask's front door.</p>

<p>Having already helped establish a vibrant lifestyle precinct with retail and amenity at Zinc, GVG is now expanding the offering with more street-level retail, set to complement the existing restaurants, wine bars, convenience, and specialty stores in the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="1901" data-start="1616">[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333362]</p>

<p>Bask represents the final new residential offering in the Bokarina Beach precinct. The two buildings, Mydas and Caretta, have been cleverly designed so that every apartment captures glimpses of either the Pacific Ocean, Lake Kawana, or the Glass House Mountains.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Construction is already underway, with GVG expecting residents to move in by summer 2026/27.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141609]</p>


How GVG is designing for the active downsizer at Bask Bokarina

<p>With completion now on the horizon, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-queensbridge-building-southbank-90-queensbridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The Queensbridge Building</a> in Southbank is beginning to reveal the depth of its amenity and residential design offering ahead of a planned move-in from late 2025.</p>

<p>Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/time-place">Time &amp; Place</a> in partnership with MaxCap Group and construction giant&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hickory">Hickory</a>, the 65-level tower recently topped out at 208 metres, marking a major milestone for the precinct-shaping project.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Once complete, the development will deliver 350 apartments and a 188-room boutique hotel as part of the Collection by TFE Hotels.</p>

<p>We recently visited The Queensbridge display suite, and a recently completed display apartment within the building, and spoke to Time &amp; Place Sales Director, James Herbert, to find out more about the project.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZLV_4kRyuj0?si=ff-i-yjmcdRHQ3Hh" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>Herbert says there are two key points of difference with The Queensbridge.</p>

<p>"The first we call 'modern nostalgia', or the feeling of home. It is one of the reasons we appointed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/flack-studio">Flack Studio</a> to handle the interiors. We studied some of Flack's most famous residential homes, and we've created a series of design moments, from the edge of the island bench to the door hardware and the materiality of the homes."</p>

<p>Apartments range from one to three bedrooms, with current pricing starting from $632,000. Most one-bedroom layouts include integrated study nooks, while select two and three-bedroom configurations feature dual bathrooms and generous storage solutions.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=1504 project_image_fid=272073]</p>

<p>Herbert says the second key point of difference is their&nbsp;commitment to community and experience.</p>

<p>"That's one of the reasons why we took our common amenity spaces and we've brought them together in a concept we call Queensbridge Clubhouse.</p>

<p>"We have all of the typical common amenity facilities you would see in any luxury hotel or building throughout the world like a swimming pool, steam room, gym, and outdoor spaces, but we've also got an amazing co-working space,&nbsp;a private izakaya, and a ground-floor dining space."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=1504 project_image_fid=272090]</p>

<p>Herbert says the community experience was about bringing&nbsp;people together, so Time &amp; Place has built a bespoke app, and they're appointing an experienced director, to manage the spaces.</p>

<p>"We believe living in the urban environment in a building like this, is about an idea of togetherness, and accessing the very best that Melbourne has to offer."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=1504 project_image_fid=272097]</p>

<p>Positioned at 90 Queens Bridge Street, The Queensbridge Building benefits from its location at the confluence of Melbourne CBD, South Melbourne, the Yarra River, and the city’s Arts Precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Residents will be within a 15-minute walk of over a dozen green spaces, world-class sports and cultural venues, and South Melbourne Market</p>

<p>The inclusion of the Hannah St. Hotel adjacent to the residential lobby also introduces a unique layer of amenity, providing additional hospitality experiences that extend the lifestyle value of the precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=1504]</p>


Inside The Queensbridge Building: Apartments.com.au Video Spotlight

Building Approvals

<html><body><p>While Victorian building approvals slowed during the pandemic, they are already starting to improve, according to m3property Victorian managing director, Luana Kenny.

Ms Kenny expects the inner city apartment market will struggle at least until international students return and borders reopen.

But also that most parts of Melbourne and regional Victorian towns are poised for further price growth, she told the Australian Property Institute and REIV State of the Market seminar.

“The owner occupier market remains incredibly robust as demand outstrips supply but as workers return to the CBD and hospitality opens up, we’ll see a rise in tenants seeking properties in the city.

“It is likely major apartment developments will remain on hold until we see how the economy recovers but as Australia is viewed as a safe place, it is expected foreign students will return which will bring life back into the CBD and city fringe precincts,’ she forecast.

Demand for units in Melbourne’s inner and middle ring suburbs has been good as a result of a strong owner occupier market, she said.

</p></body></html>

Most parts of Melbourne and regional Victorian towns are poised for price growth, she told the Australian Property Institute and REIV State of the Market seminar.

jchancellor

Owner occupiers to drive Victorian apartment sales momentum

<html><body><p>The latest dwelling approval data reveals a big gap opening up between house and apartment construction.

IFM economist Alex Joiner advised there had been a "big pullback in building approvals."

Approvals for apartments and townhouses dropped by 22 per cent year on year, the lowest level approved since January 2012, in seasonally adjusted terms.

The approvals were down 39 percent month on month with $5bn of new residential builds committed in the month.

ABS construction statistician Daniel Rossi anticipates the HomeBuilder scheme would continue to support the residential construction sector for the next few months.

“The surge in HomeBuilder applications at the end of 2020, as well as the extension of the program to March, will continue to provide support for private house approvals in the coming months,” Mr Rossi said.

https://twitter.com/IFM_Economist/status/1366548452486705152

But the relative weakness in higher-density approvals compared with the detached segment reflects the headwinds of the pandemic, "particularly very weak migration flows," James Foster, the global macro analyst noted.

Foster suggested the migration restraints were "weighing on developer forecasts for demand."

Approvals need to rebound sharply to match forecast required commencements, UBS economist George Tharenou told The Australian Financial Review, however TD economist Stephen Koukoulas suggested the pullback "may go someway to alleviate the looming oversupply issue."

By contrast to high density approvals, approvals for private houses fell 12 per cent in January to 12,100, following their HomeBuilder-induced all-time December high, to be 38 per cent higher than in January 2020.

Approvals for houses also fell across all states in January.

The HomeBuilder stimulus measures had mostly been directed towards the detached segment of the market, Foster noted.   

</p></body></html>

January dwelling approvals fell from their HomeBuilder high in December, but are still sit at elevated levels.

Big gap emerging between house and apartment construction

<html><body>
<p>The number of multi-unit approvals increased in four states in the December 2020 quarter.<br><br>
Multi-unit approvals increased by 14.4 per cent in the December 2020 quarter compared to the preceding quarter but the HIA noted they are 12.6 per cent lower than the same time last year. </p>

<p>Multi-unit approvals finished the year 8.6 per cent lower than in 2019.<br>
 <br>
“This relatively strong level of approvals for multi-units is not an indication of the volume of commencements to occur in 2021, as they likely began the planning and approval process prior to COVID,” said HIA economist, Angela Lillicrap.</p>

<p>“There is a divergence in the conditions facing detached builders versus apartment builders,” she advised.</p>

<p>ABS building approvals data for detached houses rose for the sixth consecutive month in December, to reach the largest number since the series began in 1983. Detached house approvals increased in the December 2020 quarter to be 43 per cent higher than at the same time the previous year. Detached approvals finished 13.9 per cent higher for the 2020 calendar year than in 2019.</p>

<p>Lillicrap suggested “not only does the apartment market face headwinds” from a lack of population growth but the regional migration data shows a shift away from metropolitan Sydney and Melbourne.<br>
 <br>
“The apartment market is also likely to be constrained until overseas migration returns,” said Ms Lillicrap.<br><br>
The number of multi-unit approvals increased in Western Australia (+73.8 per cent), New South Wales (+15.3 per cent) and Queensland (+5.7 per cent). </p>

<p>The number of multi-unit approvals declined in Tasmania (-81.8 percent), Victoria (-47.2 per cent) and South Australia (-44.4 per cent).<br>
 </p>
</body></html>

Multi-unit approvals increased by 14.4 per cent in the December 2020 quarter

Multi-apartment approvals jump in December quarter

<html><body>
<div>An unusual looking Building Approvals data release from the ABS, which showed a seasonally adjusted 2.1% increase in monthly approvals to 18,900 (21.4% year-on-year) but the trend result declining by 1.8% for the month to 18,309 (to be up by just 6.8% year-on-year).</div>
<div>
<br>The trend result led to various reports of the building boom being over. Confusing? It certainly was, with the trend result evidently applying negative "tail weights" to the strong run of monthly approvals at the beginning of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Ultimately monthly building approvals figures will always and forever be lumpy, and the trend weights arguably add limited value here.<br><br>Below I have instead charted the original unadjusted data by month for houses and other dwellings - no seasonal adjustments and no trend weights, just a moving average whacked through the middle - so you can make your own mind up.<br><br>So, have building approvals peaked or not? In short, detached house approvals have probably peaked for the cycle. On the other hand townhouses, units and apartments may not <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>quite</strong></span> yet have peaked, but given tighter lending criteria being applied for investors and waning rental yields, the peak of the cycle appears likely to be imminent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/4/BA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/4/BA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>The rolling annual data shows that over the year to September a record total of 230,296 dwellings was approved, with some 114,218 of them being attached dwellings, which is also a record.</span><br><br><span>Incredibly, the annual total number of attached dwelling approvals is approaching the number of houses approved, something that nobody was predicting three years ago.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/4/BA1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/4/BA1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><span>Indeed some folk predicted there would be no material increase in approvals period, which just goes to show how unpredictable cycles can be at times.</span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Across the capitals</span></strong><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">House approvals continue to trend up steadily in Sydney and Melbourne, but are flatlining in Brisbane, and are now trending down in Perth, Adelaide and Canberra. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/11/4/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/11/4/BA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div class="separator">
<div>Over the past 12 months Sydney has seen four big months for attached dwellings approvals ranging from 3,111 in May to a record 4,260 in July, but approvals tailed away again in September to just 1,835.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Melbourne waved through another 2,842 units in September for a fresh rolling annual high of 34,726 approvals.<br><br>Meanwhile Brisbane had another whopping month of high rise approvals, also sending its annual unit approvals to a new high of 18,301. This figure is up from an equivalent total of just 5,412 three years ago - again, think back to the commentary at the time, did anyone predict this surge in approvals or Chinese capital?<br><br>The Brisbane Central Business District is set to "benefit" from new high rise towers which will nudge against the city's 274 metre height limit, a restriction set for aviation regulations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/4/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/4/BA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>What more is there to say on this point that I haven't already said over the past two years?<br><br>Whether or not all of these apartments are built, steer clear of the obvious areas of oversupply in Melbourne and Brisbane in particular, and be even more wary than usual about buying expensive off-the-plan or new build units. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">High rise gluts power on</span></strong><br><br><div>In particular, the number of high rise (4+ storey) units being approved continues to defy common sense in Victoria...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/4/BA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/4/BA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>...and in Queensland, which saw its greatest ever month for high rise apartment approvals in September. The ratio of new stock to existing stock in a number of Brisbane's inner suburbs is exceptionally high, as documented here previously.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/4/BA5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/4/BA5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Meanwhile, New South Wales may have passed its cyclical peak in respect of high rise approvals, although due to necessity crowded Sydney will continue to approve more of this dwelling type in future. Nevertheless the higher-density sector is one I'd mark down to "underperform".</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/4/BA6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/4/BA6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Overall, despite talk of the building boom being "at an end" thanks to the prplexing ABS trend data, this was a reasonably strong headline result for building approvals, though once again skewed towards high-density projects. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">With the macroprudential screw tightening it seems increasingly likely that unit approvals could soon drop off too, and a significant percentage of approved developments may never make it through to the completion stage.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Accordingly the dwelling starts data series will be one to watch closely. Note that there can be a significant lag between approval and completion for multi-unit developments, perhaps up to several years. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Building boom all over bar the grouting? Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div id="post-body-4955982737537404109" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Building Approvals declined by 5.2 percent in May to be 9.2 percent lower than a year ago in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Somewhat optimistically the "trend" result is still recording a rise, but it does appears that the peak of the building approvals boom has now passed. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/05/BA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/05/BA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>A couple of observations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, although this was clearly a weaker result than last month's bonanza - one which probably at last signifies the beginning of the end for this construction cycle - the hyperbole in reporting can get overblown.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were after all some 19,706 dwellings approved in May (in original terms) - down from a massive 20,612 in April - historically very high numbers, and higher than had ever been seen until the last quarter of 2014.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whether or not all of these dwellings all get built is another matter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In rolling annual terms total approvals fell to 233,900 down from a peak of 240,130 in October 2015, comprising of 117,300 houses and 116,600 units, townhouses and apartments. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/05/BA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/05/BA5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">City by city</span></strong><br><br><div>At the capital city level, approvals in Melbourne have recorded four very strongly monthly readings in a row, taking annual detached house approvals for the Victorian capital up to a fresh cyclical high of 25,600 (a crunching 57 per cent more than Sydney over the same period). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This chart is worth noting when folk talk about a so-called "oversupply" in Sydney - a lasting oversupply not quite so easy to achieve at the city level when you are building so few detached houses into romping population growth. </div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/07/05/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/07/05/BA3.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>The monthly decline in approvals was driven by huge declines in attached approvals in Sydney (from 3,777 to 2,900) and especially Brisbane (2,500 to 1,062). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, there were some sneaky upwards revisions totaling more than 1,800 additional dwellings to previously reported figures, and three quarter of these related to New South Wales and Queensland. </div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/07/05/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/07/05/BA2.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>Overall, although it's a volatile data series it does look as though the unit and apartments approvals boom has passed its peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Approvals in Western Australia have now been trending down since September 2014, which should help to bring the rental market back into equilibrium in due course. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">High rise declines</span></strong><br><br><div>This cycle has been characterised by the approval of greater volumes of 4+ storey dwellings than ever before, with more than 70,300 approved over the past year alone - an astonishing 57 times more than we saw in 1992.  </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/05/BA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/05/BA6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most recent data suggests that high approvals are starting to wane, though, especially in Victoria where a glut of high rise approvals was pulled forward into 2015.  </div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/07/05/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/07/05/BA1.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, another very strong result, but there are now multiple indicators suggesting that the peak of the construction cycle is all about upon us.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of these days we'll all be able to say we called it!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia at 2.30pm, in particular to determine the wording of their policy statement.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Will an easing bias be reinstated ahead of a possible August interest rate cut?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> </div>
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Approvals decline  for Sydney and Brisbane units: Pete Wargent

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<div>Building Approvals data revealed the expected rebound in February after the seasonal lull in January, but the downtrend is clearly in place from the trend peak of 11 months ago.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>House approvals have rolled a little, but the tailing off is more likely to be seen in the units, apartments and townhouses sector following an impressive burst since 2012. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Capital city analysis</span></strong></p>
<div>House approvals are faading fast in Perth in reaction to elevated vacancy rates, while Melbourne continues to approve the greatest number of houses by some margin, and as such may be the city with the greatest potential for overbuilding. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The last couple of months have been much slower for unit approvals in Sydney and Melbourne, which is now being reflected in the rolling annual figures below.<br><br>After nearly a decade of under-building Sydney is now approving a decent number of attached dwellings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dream over for high rise</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>This record approvals boom for Australia has largely been driven by "high rise" or four plus storey unit blocks, but this part of the approvals boom has noticeably slowed over the past four months. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have each gone hard at approvals in the high density sector over the past few years, but all three cities have now passed their respective peaks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With APRA having insisted upon tigher lending criteria for investors building approvals will in all likelihood continue to slow from here, following a record run.<br><br>Even at this well advanced stage in the construction cycle vacancy rates have been tightening in inner Sydney to just 1.3 percent, but cracks are starting to show in some of the secondary and outer areas where vacancy rates are above 2 per cent (and in some pockets higher again). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Building approvals boom all over bar the grouting: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The November 2015 building approvals data show a sharp fall in dwelling approvals led by the volatile unit segment. Seasonally adjusted total dwelling approvals were -12.7 percent lower over the month, their largest monthly fall since July 2012.  </span></p>
<p><span>Year-on-year dwelling approvals are -8.4 percent lower and approvals have retracted to be -16.8 percent lower than their recent record highs. The data indicates a slowing in developer appetite for approvals and, given the slowing demand for mortgages from investors and slowing home value growth, it is a trend which is likely to continue over the coming months.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-1-580x181.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p> <img src="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-1-580x181.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The decline in approvals in November was led by units however, house approvals, which haven’t seen the same level of acceleration as units, also recorded a fall over the month.  House approvals were -0.6 percent lower over the month and -2.2 percent lower year-on-year. Meanwhile, unit approvals declined by -24.0 percent in November and were -15.0 percent lower year-on-year.  Although the unit approvals series is much more volatile series than houses, it has now started trending lower with approvals -30.3 percent lower than their recent record high of 11,084 approvals in July 2015.  </span></p>
<p><span>House approvals are also trending lower, albeit at a more moderate pace, down -9.4 percent from their recent peak of 10,376 approvals in April 2015. The most recent Census in 2011 shows that 21.2 percent of detached houses are rented compared to 56.0 percent of units. The recent sharp fall in investor housing finance commitments is much more likely to impact on demand for new units than new houses and we may be seeing developers starting to react to this market shift.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-2-580x209.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-2-580x209.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The data on unit approvals by type further highlights the recent boom in high-rise (4 storeys and greater) unit approvals. Historically townhouses have been the product of choice for medium and high density developers however, over the past four years we have seen record high levels of high rise construction. Both monthly and annual data points to demand for high-rise approvals starting to fall although it should be noted that high-rise approvals still account for a majority of unit approvals. </span></p>
<p>High-rise approvals could be considered a bit of a double-edged sword for developers, in one instance they are considered the highest and best use of land in areas of strategic significance (eg along transport spines and in areas closed to major working nodes like the CBD) however, they are heavily reliant on achieving a particular level of presales.</p>
<p>From an economic sense they take longer to build so the economic benefit of the construction is stretched over a longer period of time however, they are ultimately less likely to end up constructed because much more financing is required and they are so dependent on adequate levels of presales.</p>
<p>It is likely that given units are much more likely to be purchased by investors and investor demand is now falling that a larger than normal proportion of these units will not end up constructed in this new phase of the housing cycle.  Historically around 98% of units approved are constructed compared to around 85% of units.</p>
<p>Much like home sales, values and investment related mortgage demand, we are now also seeing early signs of a slowing in dwelling approvals. Although approvals are slowing there is still a large number of unit projects under construction which should continue to provide a high level of economic benefit as the recent record high number of dwelling approvals continues for a few years. Of course the huge surge in housing construction at a time when population growth is slowing means that there is a better balance between housing supply and demand. In fact in certain areas there are now concerns about oversupply, particularly in inner city unit markets.</p>
<p>This is going to be a key theme to watch during 2016 particularly considering that we are already seeing investor demand falling and record low levels of rental growth. The next challenge will be when these units come to settlement will their initial valuation hold up and will the changed lending landscape mean that some purchasers will have to find larger deposits in order to settle.  Furthermore, if they purchased for investment purposes the next challenge may just be finding someone to rent the property.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p> </p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Will new housing approvals continue to ease through 2016? Cameron Kusher

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<p>Building approvals for private sector houses rose for the fourth consecutive month in October and were at the highest recorded level since February 2000, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.  </p>
<p>Building approvals saw a surprise 3.8 per cent rise in October, with many forecasting a contraction following a huge September spike.</p>
<p>Westpac had forecast approvals would slip back three per cent. </p>
<p>Daniel Rossi, director of construction statistics at the ABS, said the continued strong demand for detached housing follows the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in most states and territories.</p>
<p>"Record low interest rates and a range of Federal and state-based incentives are also providing support for the housing sector,” Rossi said.</p>
<p>Housing Industry's Association's Craig Jennion said the figures show the start of the impact of stage one of HomeBuilder.</p>
<p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Last month the total number of dwelling approvals rose by 15.4 per cent to be 8.8 per cent higher than a year ago.</span></p>
<p>The October gains of nearly four per cent put approvals over 14 per cent higher than they were this time last year.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/DEC/1/October%20ABS%20building%20approvals.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>There were a further 10,692 private sector houses approved, up 3.1 per cent from September and 31.7 per cent from 12 months ago.</p>
<p>It's now back to back approvals of over 10,000 private sector houses. There hadn't been a single month of over 10,000 private sector houses approvals since June 2018.</p>
<p>There were 16,584 apartments approved, 3.8 per cent up from last month and 14.3 per cent up from the last year.</p>
<p>The biggest spike was seen in New South Wales where a further 32 per cent of apartments were approved from last month, with 4695 units approved.</p>
<p>Victoria unsurprisingly contracted from its big September approval figures, back 15 per cent but still had nearly 300 more apartments approved than New South Wales (4946)</p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/DEC/1/Approvals%20by%20state%20ABS.jpg" alt=""></p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

House approvals rise to 20 year high in October

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<p>House prices continue to rise solidly, supported by easier access to credit and lower interest rates, according to the latest ANZ Housing Update report.</p>
<p>The housing update found a combination of pent-up demand and low volumes looks to have been a key driver of the larger than-expected rebound.</p>
<p>While the initial strength was concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne, the pick-up has broadened across the capital cities. In December, prices rose in all capital cities bar Perth (where they were flat) and Darwin.</p>
<p>Looking at the nation as a whole, ANZ predict that prices will rise solidly in 2020 but the pace of monthly gains will moderate.</p>
<p>Felicity Emmett, Senior ANZ economist said, "we have revised up our forecasts a little and now expect prices to rise 8% on average through 2020, and 4% in 2021."</p>
<p><strong>Building Approvals</strong></p>
<p>Building approvals have fallen sharply, driven by a steep decline in high-rise apartment building approvals. Some of this decline can be attributed to the recent cladding and cracking crises which have lead to a lack of faith in apartment developers.</p>
<p>The decline in approvals suggests construction will fall for some months yet.</p>
<p>Felicity Emmett said, "leading indicators are turning, suggesting activity will pick up later this year. Finance for construction, both for households and businesses, is picking up strongly, while property developers are more confident about the construction outlook."</p>
<p>"Build quality concerns, particularly in NSW, may dampen the eventual upswing."</p>
<p>"We expect activity to trough in mid-2020 before picking up," she forecast.</p>
<p><strong>Housing Credit &amp; Loans</strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Adelaide Timbrell, Economist ANZ said, "Housing credit growth is at a historical low of 2.3% y/y, as households use rate cuts to pay down debt faster, rather than reduce repayments. The expiry of interest only loans is also leading to faster debt repayment."</p>
<p>"Recent data suggest arrears rates are now declining, helped by the improved housing market. Despite higher WA arrears and IO loan switching increasing debt repayments by up to 40%, Australian arrears are low by international standards," she added.</p>
<p>First home buyer loan sizes are at historical highs and affordability concerns may emerge as housing prices continue to rise.</p>
<p>Rising rents are squeezing low-middle income earners, who take up an increasing share of the private rental market, atleast when compared to two decades ago.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Property recovery spreads, building approvals may bounce back in late 2020: ANZ

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<p>Building approvals have continued to decline sharply over the month to June, according to the latest ABS figures.</p>
<p>Total dwelling units approved have dropped by -1.3% to be nearly 21% down over the year to June 2019.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/7/Dwelling%20figures.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> In June 2018 there were around 19,000 of units being approved. Now there are just 14,500.</p>
<p><span>"The trend series for total dwellings has fallen for 19 consecutive months," said Daniel Rossi, director of construction statistics at the ABS.</span></p>
<p><span>"The decrease in June was driven by private dwellings excluding houses, which fell 2.5 per cent in trend terms.</span></p>
<p><span> "Approvals for private houses were also down 0.8 per cent."</span></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/7/Dwelling%20approvals.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Total dwelling approvals fell in the Australian Capital Territory (4.7 per cent), Tasmania (3.8 per cent), Western Australia (3.5 per cent), New South Wales (2.9 per cent) and South Australia (0.8 per cent), in trend terms.</span></p>
<p><span> Increases were recorded in the Northern Territory (5.8 per cent), Victoria (0.4 per cent) and Queensland (0.2 per cent).</span></p>
<p>The trend estimate of the value of total building approved rose 0.4% in June and has risen for six months.</p>
<p>The value of residential building fell 0.8% and has fallen for 17 months. The value of non-residential building rose 2% and has risen for 10 months.</p>
<p>The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 2% in June. The value of residential building fell 3.1%, while the value of non-residential building rose 9.6%.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/7/House%20approvals.jpg" alt=""></p>
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