Building Approval

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GUEST OBSERVER
Approvals came in well above expectations with a 3.9% rise vs consensus forecast of a 2.5% decline.
The upside was due to a jump in high-rise approvals in NSW and Vic, where total approvals rose 20%.
The rest of the detail was soft, consistent with a moderate underlying downtrend in approvals.
Monthly volatility continues to make pinpointing the pace of this slowdown difficult although it still appears to be mild.
 Details 
Private houses  -2.1%mth, -1.9%yr   Private 'units'    10.6%mth, 29.6%yr                
NSW     22%mth, 27.1%yr   Vic       21.2%mth, 18.1%yr  Qld       -28.7%mth, 14.2%yr WA       -1.1%mth, -20.8%yr SA        23.4%mth, 15.1%yr                 
Alteration &amp; additions^   3.7%mth, 8.9%yr Non-residential^             -1%mth, 19.6%yr
 
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Australian dwelling approvals October 2015: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data for July 2015 earlier this week. According to the data there were 19,298 dwelling approvals over the month which represents an increase of 4.2% over the month and a year-on-year rise of 13.4%. Monthly dwelling approvals reached a record high of 20,260 approvals in March 2015 and the July 2015 result represents the fifth largest monthly number of dwelling approvals on record.
<a href="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
 
Over the month there were more unit approvals than house approvals. In fact it was only the seventh time on record that there were more units approved over the month than houses, five of which have happened in 2015. Although unit approvals outnumbered house approvals over the month it is important to note that they tend to be much more volatile than house approvals and are ultimately less likely to be built than houses (approximately 85% of all unit approvals proceed through to a completion historically). Although this is the case, particularly for larger unit development, the economic benefit is extended over a longer period because they take much longer to complete.
In July 2015 there were 9,479 houses and 9,819 unit approvals over the month. House approvals fell by -2.6% in July and were -2.1% lower year-on-year.  Meanwhile, unit approvals increased by 11.7% in July (following a fall of -13.3% in June) and were 33.8% higher year-on-year.  On an annual basis there has been a record high 224,121 approvals to July 2015. To put the recent ramp-up in approvals into perspective, three years ago there were just 148,449 approvals over the year.
<a href="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
As the number of approvals has increased, the greatest rise has occurred across the multi-unit segment. Over the past 12 months a record high 48.3% of all approvals were for units. If you look just at the capital city markets 55.7% of all dwelling approvals were for units.  
The rise in unit approvals is reflective of changing lifestyle patterns with more and more people preferring to live closer to the city centre and along transport spines where most of these units are located. It also shows that developers are enjoying a level of confidence by seeking approvals for a record high number of units.  
Another factor contributing to the rise in higher density dwelling approvals is changes in town planning policies where governments are aiming to maximise existing transport infrastructure by allowing higher densities along existing and planned transport corridors and mixed use precincts.
<a href="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-3.jpg" alt="">
 
If we look at the types of units that are being approved it is interesting to note the sharp rise in high-rise approvals, that is units in a block of four or more storeys.  Over the past 12 months, a record high 63.4% of all unit approvals were within high-rise projects while a record low 26.2% of approvals were terrace and townhouses and a record low 4.9% of approvals were for units in a one or two storey block. Again, these figures just go to show the heightened level of developer confidence particularly when you consider the relative level of risk associated with high rise development.
The number of dwelling approvals remains high albeit it is slightly lower than recent record highs. Strength in the approvals figures are becoming increasingly reliant on the multi-unit sector which tend to be much more volatile than house approvals. With many banks, credit unions and building societies tightening their lending criteria it will be interesting to see over the coming months if this flows into approvals and causes developer confidence to wane.
No matter what happens with approvals over the coming months and years there is a strong pipeline of new construction, much of which is high-rise and will extend out over a number of years.  Furthermore, with population growth slowing we should see a better relationship between housing supply and housing demand.  This is already being seen by the fact that capital city rental rates are increasing at an historic low rate currently.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Rise in unit approvals drives rebound: Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVER
The latest ABS data on housing approvals indicates a fall in NSW compared to an increase in Victoria.
The approval numbers for apartments in New South Wales have dropped at the end of 2017 according to the latest ABS trend data.
We have seen a number of factors combining in the Sydney housing market that are discouraging developers from trying to get planning approvals leading to an approval slowdown.
The banks are continuing to minimise lending for new housing, the investment from China has cooled, many councils are proposing significant levies for affordable housing, there is a growing negative community reaction to new housing and the state government is removing the cap on contribution levels by councils.
When all of these factors combine confidence levels from developers decrease and the risk from new developments increases.
The December figures for NSW housing approvals by trend are 5,268 compared to a robust Victoria performance of 6,570. The number of apartment approvals is falling fast in NSW from 4,326 in July 2016 to 2,888 in December 2017. The Victorian apartment approvals for December 2017 are 3,361.
The NSW Government has been talking about approaches to affordable housing over the last year but expected guidance notes and an expected Housing State Environmental Planning Policy (SEPP) have not been forthcoming.
This has led to uncertainty amongst the development industry about what extra levies may be added to a new housing project. The recently elected Inner West Council late last year proposed an affordable housing levy of 30% of apartments to be given back to the council from all new apartment developments. If excessive levies like this occur clearly new housing will slow down even further.
Another example of confidence levels decreasing is the pull out by respected developer Mirvac from a large housing project in the Hills Shire due to excessive apartment sizes required by councils above state standards.
Both the council in the Hills Shire and local members of state parliament have been attacking development proposals as being too big relative to existing infrastructure despite a new metro rail line being built by the state government.
While the NSW economy is in good shape compared to other states there are strong signals that confidence is dropping in the housing development sector which is a major employer of jobs.
The NSW Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has stated that housing supply is the key to housing affordability so the government must do all it can to support more approvals for new homes through the planning system.
See below graphs based on ABS figures: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/1/NSW1.jpg" alt="" style="font-size: 12.16px;">
Chris Johnson is the CEO of Urban Taskforce.
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NSW housing approvals dropping below Victoria: Urban Taskforce CEO Chris Johnson

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Dwelling approvals recorded a sharp 9.7% drop in July coming against expectations that the stabilisation evident in previous months would consolidate. The fall takes approvals to a 6½ year low, down 28% on a year ago. Total approvals are now tracking materially below 'underlying demand' for the first time since 2013.
As is often the case with big monthly moves, the fall was concentrated in unit approvals which posted an 18.4% drop to be down 44.2%yr.
The detail points to similarly-sized monthly falls across both high rise and medium density units with a particularly weak read on high rise approvals in NSW.
The July fall takes high rise approvals to a new low. While this is still broadly consistent with the lead from site purchases, the risk is that continued stress in the sector is leading to more projects being delayed or cancelled and a possible further leg lower in approvals.
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Detached house approvals were also weak in the July month, recording a 3.3% fall – a sizeable move for what is normally a more stable component. The state detail shows very mixed results with unusually big falls in Vic (–10.9%mth) and WA (–14.5%) but strong gain in NSW (+10.1%). Some of the weakness in Vic may reflect the transition to a new building permit system and other changes to duties and concessions.
On a combined basis, approvals ex high rise were down about 6%mth nationally, considerably weaker than the stabilising signal from construction-related finance approvals in recent months. Weakness is centred on Vic (–7.2%mth), Qld (–7.6%mth) and WA (–4.4%mth). Approvals ex high rise were up slightly in NSW (+0.3%) and more firmly in SA (+3.9%).
The total value of renovation approvals rose 0.4% in the July month but is about flat in trend terms having declined slightly in the June quarter.
The total value of non res building approvals fell 9.9%, reversing most of a 10.5% jump in July. Looking through the monthly volatility, approvals are showing some signs of flattening out from what has been a reasonably solid rising trend. The detail shows trends continue to vary significantly across, retail, warehouses, hotels and health still showing solid gains on a 6mth basis but education down sharply offices off its most recent peak.
Overall the July update is clearly much weaker than expected and raises the risk that building activity may take another leg lower. As always, we caution about reading too much into one month's data, particularly with volatile high rise approvals, but there is enough here to warrant careful monitoring in coming months.
As noted in our preview, dwelling construction can often be slow to respond to interest rate cuts and with other factors impacting segments likely high rise and the longer lags on these projects actual building looks set to continue declining well into 2020. Stabilising prices may ease some of the housing headwinds to growth but drags from the construction cycle are likely to persist.
Read the full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/er20190830BullDwellApprovJul.pdf">'Australian dwelling approvals July' (PDF 327kb)</a>.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist at Westpac
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