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ANZ has today revealed it is cutting its variable package rates for new borrowers by between 0.35% and 0.90%, bringing its package rates into line for all loan amounts.  

Canstar’s research shows the average variable package rate from the major banks is 3.43% and ANZ now offers the lowest of the major banks’ variable package rate offers for owner occupiers at 2.99% (3.42% comparison rate).

The changes for owner occupiers paying principal and interest (80% LVR) are as follows: 

<img alt="" height="231" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/anz_rate_cut.jpg" width="741">

Canstar Group Executive, Financial Services, Steve Mickenbecker says “Today’s cut from ANZ is the first cut to a variable rate by one of the big four banks since September last year, as interest rate cuts have since been focused on fixed rates.”

“The decrease from ANZ is being passed on to new borrowers by way of increasing the discount applied to its standard variable rate and will not be passed on to existing borrowers. "

“ANZ now offers the lowest package rate among the major banks and it would not be surprising to see others moving down the same path."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4939]

“ANZ is seeking to grow its share of low risk business, with the gap between lending to borrowers with equity below 20 per cent and those with greater equity widening from 5 to 20 basis points," he concluded.
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ANZ has today revealed it is cutting its variable package rates for new borrowers by between 0.35% and 0.90%

jordan_55689

ANZ cuts variable rates by up to 0.9%

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The ANZ submission to the House of Representatives Inquiry into Home Ownership suggests that achieving balance between government and private sector "can assist with managing demand uncertainty and responding to changes in consumer needs". 
"State governments and local councils have been slow to release land in response to the surge in migration from 2004. Natural geographic constraints to expanding the city fringe complicate this process in cities such as Sydney. 
"Adding to this bottleneck, the process for converting rural land to new dwellings can take six or more years in some cities.
"For suburban and inner-urban redevelopments, planning approvals from State government and local council are frequently subject to lengthy delays and policy changes are commonplace. This makes developing inner city properties more expensive and drives apartment prices up."
In the financial institution's view, in order to achieve higher funding availability, lower funding costs and earlier funding of projects, consumers should carry more of the risk.
"At present, buyers in all States except Queensland can pay a 10% deposit for an off-the- plan purchase with the remaining 90% paid on practical completion. ANZ’s experience is that this deposit has proven to be an inadequate pre-estimate of the loss that a developer suffers if a buyer does not complete a contract. 
"When a buyer fails to complete the purchase, a seller is exposed to: 
<ul>
<li>  Loss on sale price if the market has fallen; </li>
<li>  Additional legal expenses associated with the resale; </li>
<li>  Holding costs (including interest on debt, greater levels of land tax and local council rates, and higher insurance premiums); </li>
<li>  Marketing and agent commissions; and </li>
<li>  Costs of enforcement against a defaulting buyer or in claiming a disputed deposit. </li>
</ul>
"Housing demand has been driven over the last decade by rapid population growth, largely resulting from immigration. The acceleration in population growth was most concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne and was not matched by increasing construction of new residential dwellings. Demand is also affected by general economic conditions, including interest rates and labor market conditions. 
"ANZ expects subdued economic conditions in coming years and a higher unemployment rate will impact consumer confidence and the financial capacity of households (ie household income growth), despite an extended period of low interest rates. 
"In recent years, investors have been increasingly attracted to residential property as an asset class due to solid long-term risk-adjusted returns (including low downside volatility), the low cost of borrowing, and solid underlying market fundamentals. Investor's lending now accounts for 50% of total housing finance, slightly higher than peak in 2003-04. 
"We estimate that ‘realised’ foreign investment added around AUD12-18 billion to dwelling investment in 2013-14, and contributed to the increased supply of housing available for rent. 
The top 40% income earners accounts for four-fifths of investor housing debt. The increase in years to save for a deposit contributes to the decline in home deposit affordability.
"An ageing population will depend less on income and more on financial wealth to support home ownership choices. Figure 1 shows the most recent data on households by dwelling type, from 2011. It reveals a strong bias towards detached housing, particularly amongst age groups over 35 years. Higher-density housing is more common among under 35s (37%) and over 65s (23%). 
<a href="/images/2015/08/05/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-05%20at%205.19.16%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/08/05/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-05%20at%205.19.16%20PM.png" alt="">
"ANZ supports the supervision and measures now in place to monitor risks to financial stability posed by housing.  
"In net terms and absent the policy changes and other recommendations made here, we expect increasing home prices, weak household income growth, stable interest rates and increasing underlying pressure on the existing housing stock will continue to reduce housing affordability across all measures in coming years."
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

ANZ blames metro Sydney and Melbourne price rises on supply mismatch

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The fall in housing finance in March is not surprising, given that we already knew that March was a weak month for the housing market. We will continue to watch developments in the availability of credit very closely. 
Any further tightening in credit conditions could imply further weakness in the housing market, and would challenge our current view of mild house price growth by the end of the year.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/figure0.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/figure0.jpg" alt="">
The value of Australian housing finance commitments fell heavily in March, with the investor segment driving the decline at -9% m/m. This is the weakest monthly result for investor borrowing since September 2015, when APRA’s macroprudential policy limiting lending to investors was in full effect.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/figure1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/figure1.jpg" alt="">
On the previous occasion, the owner-occupier segment offset much of the investor weakness, but that was not the case in March.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/figure2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/figure2.jpg" alt="">
The drop in investor borrowing means that investors only accounted for 42% of transactions nationwide – the lowest level since 2012. While this result predates APRA’s recent decision to remove the 10% ‘speed limit’ on investor borrowing, it is hard to see a re-acceleration in the investor segment with sentiment clearly subdued. Having said that, recent announcements from several banks have seen some cuts to investor mortgage rates, which could help ensure such a sharp drop in borrowing is not repeated.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/figure3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/figure3.jpg" alt="">
Elsewhere, the finance for new dwellings has started to trend lower, which suggests that the recent rise in building approvals will soon run out of steam. This won’t affect our construction outlook though, as a large backlog of work will still support activity this year. Finally, it looks like the flood of first home buyers, driven by New South Wales and Victorian stamp duty discounts, is past the peak.
Daniel Gradwell is a senior economist at ANZ.
  
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

March fall in housing finance unsurprising: ANZ 

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The ANZ expects the banking royal commission to probe its treatment of farmers following the Landmark acquisition during the financial crisis.
But chief executive Shayne Elliott says he is not expecting any surprises when the royal commission examines business lending during its next round of hearings, given almost every aggrieved customer has been remediated. 
ANZ's purchase of the Landmark loan book from the Australian Wheat Board in 2009 was also a key focus of the 2016 parliamentary inquiry into loan impairments.
The committee heard evidence from a handful of Landmark's customers that ANZ had engaged in deliberate impairments or defaults of performing loans, but said in its final report it was not able to conclusively determine this had occurred. 
The treatment of farmers by ANZ, and of developers by Bankwest and CBA, were the main motivation for members of the National Party to threaten to cross the floor of the Parliament late last year to initiate a royal commission into the banks. 
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<div class="cq-article-content-media section">Elliott told The Australian Financial Review the next set of royal commission hearings, which begin on May 31, will look into business lending in the agricultural sector.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">"We did have some failings with respect to the Landmark portfolio that we acquired," he said.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
"We acquired it, most of the problems we had came with that acquisition. We were not resourced sufficiently, to first identify the real problems, and then to deal with them in a timely manner. We were wrong. We have said that, and we have remediated (customers)." 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

ANZ readies for Landmark farmers complaints at royal commission

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EXPERT OBSERVERS
The housing market remains weak, and many key indicators are around the worst levels in a number of years. However, the downturn is still tracking in line with our previous forecasts, and our outlook is relatively unchanged. 
We still anticipate prices will keep falling through 2018 and 2019, and we have extended our forecast into 2020, where prices are likely to remain subdued.
Nationwide, we continue to expect prices to fall around 4% in 2018 and 2% in 2019.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/27/state-forecast.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/27/state-forecast.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/27/state-forecast.jpg" alt=""></a>
 
We have extended our forecast to 2020, and we think prices will end that year flat from a year ago. We still expect Sydney and Melbourne prices to fall around 10% peak to trough, while other markets will perform better.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/27/house-prices.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/27/house-prices.jpg" alt="">
 A number of headwinds will continue to weigh on the market, including further credit tightening, out of cycle rate increases, and eventual RBA rate hikes. But despite these challenges, the risks around financial stability have not worsened to date.
Credit availability, or the lack thereof, is also an issue for housing construction. 
The current round of projects is already locked in, with a record level of investment in progress. But we have concerns over the next round of projects, and expect to see construction fall steadily through 2019 and 2020.
Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters are economists at ANZ.
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Prices likely to remain subdued into 2020: ANZ Research

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The ANZ-Property Council Survey for the December quarter shows that sentiment in Australia’s property sector has fallen sharply to the lowest level in two years. 
Sentiment in the residential segment has fallen to the lowest level since 2012.
NAB found the same results in their Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey, which prompted them to change their <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/90532-nab-change-forecast-after-confidence-collapses" target="_blank">forecast to predict further losses.</a>
Much like NAB's survey, ANZ-Property Council Survey found that bearing the brunt of the weaker confidence was New South Wales and Victoria.
They noted the decline was recorded across all states and territories. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/ANZ-Figure1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/11/ANZ-Figure1.jpg" alt="">
David Plank, ANZ head of Australian economics, said the downturn in the housing outlook is significant, although not surprising. 
"The survey supports our view that both house prices and residential construction are set for a period of decline," Plank said.
"The expectations of tighter credit availability and higher interest rates, if realised, will weigh on the housing market for some time.
"We think housing prices will nudge lower through to 2020, before stabilising through the remainder of that year," Plank suggested.
He said that they do not anticipate the scale of price declines accelerating, given that the economy and household finances are still generally in good shape.
ANZ expect housing construction to post material declines through 2019 and 2020.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/ANZ-figure2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/11/ANZ-figure2.jpg" alt="">
Ken Morrison, chief executive of Property Council of Australia, said that sentiment is softening in critical areas.
“This report shows that sentiment – while still positive – is softening in critical areas across an industry that is Australia’s biggest employer and supports 1.4 million jobs,” Morrison said.
“This shift in sentiment needs to be on the radar of policy makers because now more than ever we need strong investment, tax and planning regimes to keep the economy strong.” 
The outlook for construction and prices has worsened, and firms expect a double whammy of tighter credit conditions and higher interest rates over the next year. Demand from foreign buyers is still falling.
There was good news for the commercial property segment, where sentiment is much better.
"Although posting a small decline in the December quarter, confidence is still sitting at strong levels," the report read.
"The tourism, industrial and office property sectors report a solid outlook, although the retail sector is still challenged."
The ANZ/Property Council survey is based on responses from more than 900 property industry participants. The survey was conducted between 3-19 September 2018.   
 
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Sentiment drops further as house prices to decline until 2020: ANZ-Property Council

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Commercial property confidence is at much more encouraging levels than its residential counterpart, according to the latest ANZ Property Council Survey.
The survey found that the gap in confidence between commercial and residential property has now reached record levels.
Despite this, commercial sentiment has also dropped.
The drop in sentiment in the most recent quarter occurred across all segments, although the retail segment is still the weakest.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%201.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%201.JPG" alt="">
Sluggish income growth, rising mortgage rates and utility costs and reduced wealth effects as house prices fall are all issues reducing the level of household consumption taking place.
Online retailing and global competition are also continuing to hinder domestic bricks and mortar retailers.
However, the industrial segment is now the most optimistic, displacing tourism.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%202.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%202.JPG" alt="">
Firms in the industrial industry report that the construction pipeline has increased further over the recent quarter, especially in New South Wales, while it remains elevated in Victoria and Queensland.
Danial Gradwell and David Plank, the authors of the report stated:
"The outlook for capital values is solid, which we think is consistent with demand coming from the strong pipeline of infrastructure projects coming through in those states.
"In addition, while online retailing is disrupting the retail sector, the storage and logistics requirements are supporting the industrial sector."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%203.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%203.JPG" alt="">
"It is disappointing to see that survey respondents’ appraisal of the federal government has retreated considerably," the report said.
"While the September quarter showed a solid improvement in the government performance index (likely in response to the 2018-19 Budget), the subsequent leadership spill in August appears to have hindered confidence once more."
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Commercial property confidence is solid, for now: ANZ

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ANZ Research has forecast the national housing decline will reach 10 per cent, before seeing a modest recovery in late 2021, as economist start to work out the future after COVID-19.
They expect the biggest declines to be felt in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart, all predicted to decline -13 per cent.
Brisbane and Darwin have been forecast to decline -7 per cent, Adelaide -6 per cent and Canberra -5 per cent, with Perth down just -2 per cent.
ANZ economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell anticipate prices will bottom out in mid-2021 as affordability improves, but the recovery is likely to be relatively gradual given that unemployment is expected to remain above 7% until 2022.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/5/13/ANZ%20housing%20forecast.jpg" alt=""> Hobart is set for the worst 2020 performance, but losses will be scaled back in 2021: Source ANZ Research
Emmett and Timbrell suggest the deterioration in household income will be the biggest driver of weakness.
"Already, nearly a third of Australian households have reported a deterioration in their finances due to COVID-19," the economists said.
"This collapse in income will create significant uncertainty for households and leave many unwilling to commit to buying or building a home."
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/5/13/ANZ%20price%20growth.jpg" alt=""> Price growth has slowed in Sydney and Melbourne after bouncing back from the mid-2019 downturn. Source: ANZ Research
Emmett and Timbrell said the disruption of population growth will impact prices given border closures, expected to damage the Sydney and Melbourne markets the most given the bulk of their population growth comes from net overseas migration.
"Investor demand is likely to be hardest hit in the current environment. With the rental market under pressure from both reduced demand and increased supply, the incentive to invest in property will be low," they added.
"While the deferral of home loan repayments will help prevent forced sales, the collapse in demand in the face of the extremely uncertain outlook will drive prices lower over the next year or so."
 
 
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ANZ forecast 10% peak to trough declines until late 2021 rebound

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ANZ is the only bank in the big four to cut variable home loan rates in this latest cut.
They reduced rates by 0.15 basis points.
As a result of today’s changes, ANZ’s variable rate home loan customers will save approximately $34 a month or $406 a year. This is based on an owner occupier with a $400,000, 30-year loan paying principal and interest on the discounted variable rate on the minimum repayment.
The move follows on the back of the recent RBA rate cut during their emergency March 19 meeting where they reduced the cash rate to a record low 0.25%.
ANZ have also introduced a two-year fixed rate of 2.19% p.a for owner occupiers paying principal &amp; interest.
Like NAB they have made it possible to request a deferral of home loan repayments for up to six-months.
ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott said the package aimed to support Australian business and the people who work for them.
"We understand the impact this crisis is having and ANZ will play a major role in backing Australia's economy and our customers through these challenging times," he said.
"We have been working with both the Federal Government and our regulators to keep money flowing through the economy and we'll do all we can to keep businesses afloat and Australians employed, as well as reducing the financial pressure on households."
"Our decision to reduce variable home loan and small business rates is the right thing to do for our existing customers, particularly the significant number of our home loan customers who are self-employed and managing the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on their own businesses."
"The highly competitive fixed-rates being offered will provide customers certainty over repayments with our lowest fixed-rates on record."
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said the bank was providing relief for most of its borrowers.
"It's great to see ANZ has stepped up and delivered something for the majority of its borrowers to help them through these turbulent times," she said.
"In this economic climate, every dollar counts.
"When these changes come into effect, ANZ will have the lowest ongoing variable rate from the big four banks at 2.72 per cent," she said.
"Now three of the four big banks are offering fixed rates as low as 2.19 per cent, we're likely to see other lenders chase after them, potentially cutting fixed rates even further," she said.
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