July Australian housing finance figures weaker than expected: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

GUEST OBSERVER

Australian housing finance were materially weaker than expected in July with much of the detail also on the weak side, investor loans about the only exception.

The total number of owner occupier loans fell 4.2 percent, well below the consensus forecast for a 1.5 percent decline.


Ex refinance the picture was even weaker with a 6.1 percent fall, the largest monthly decline since May last year.

Approvals can be choppy month to month but moves tend to be in the ±3 percent range.

Our estimates (using ABS seasonal factors) suggest seasonally adjusted owner occupier approvals ex refi were down 3-4% in NSW, Vic and Qld with, somewhat surprisingly, WA the only state to record a rise (+2.7%mth).

Note that the sum of these estimates across the big five states is firmer than the published national number (down about 2% rather than 6%).

Details 

Owner–occupiers (no.)              –4.2%mth, 1.8%yr

– ex-financing (no.)                  –6.1%mth, –2.7%yr      

Construction of dwellings (no.)  –4.9%mth, –3.9%yr

Purchase of newly built dwellings (no.)  –3.3%mth, 8.4%yr        

Value of loans:

Owner-occupiers ($bn)        –3.1%mth, 2.3%yr

Investors ($bn)                    0.5%mth, –9.3%yr

Total ($bn)                         –1.8%mth, –2.4%yr

Total ex refi ($bn)                –2.2%mth, –5.4%yr