Housing investor credit continues to ease: ANZ Research
Australian private sector credit recorded a solid increase in June, led by a rebound in the business sector after several months of weakness.
The divergence between investor and owner-occupier housing credit continued, with the former still slowing in response to APRA’s macroprudential regulation.
This trend is likely to still have further to run.
Housing credit posted another 0.5% m/m rise in June, although at the margin (2 decimal places) this was the slowest monthly increase in a year.
The slowdown in investor borrowing continued, and quarterly annualised growth now sits at 6.0%.
This reflects a significant cooling from the recent peak of 9% growth reached in December 2016, suggesting that APRA’s macroprudential regulation continues to bite housing investors.
On the other hand, credit to owner-occupiers again posted faster monthly growth than the investor segment.
The divergence between the segments kept total annual housing credit growth at 6.6% y/y, reflecting a stabilisation at a marginally higher rate than at the start of the year.
Business credit recorded the strongest monthly rise since December 2016, up 0.9% m/m.
This is a welcome result after a period of weakness, but we do not expect it to be sustained indefinitely.
Business finance approvals have remained weak in recent months, and suggest that growth in the stock of business credit is likely to ease from here.
