China property update: Westpac's Elliot Clarke
GUEST OBSERVER
In July, China tier-1 property prices saw a further moderation in the pace of annual price growth; in tier-2 and tier-3, growth (again) inched higher, remaining at a much lower level than tier-1.
For new housing, 51 cities reported price gains in the month of July, down from 55 in June and a peak of 65 in April. But that is still well up on the number of cities reporting monthly gains a year ago (30 in July 2015). 16 cities reported monthly price declines, although that is also better than July 2015’s 29 cities.
The secondary market has not seen as strong an improvement over the past year, a net 51 cities reporting monthly gains in July versus 41 a year ago and a peak of 54 four months ago (in March). 12 cities are currently experiencing price declines, compared to 17 a year ago.
Splitting the 70 cities into the three development tiers, tier-1 continues to experience a robust pace of price growth, an average of 27.0 percent/yr for new housing and 29.3 percent/yr for the secondary market. Versus April’s peaks of 31.5%yr and 36.1%yr, that is still best characterised as a modest deceleration.
Within this tier, a normalisation is continuing:
Shenzhen new property price growth has slowed from 62.5 percent/yr in April to (a still very strong) 40.9 percent/yr; meanwhile, Shanghai price growth has plateaued circa 28 percent/yr, as has Beijing and Guangzhou (albeit nearer 20 percent/yr).
Similar trends are apparent in the established or secondary markets: Shenzhen slowing from 60.6 percent/yr in March to 33.9 percent/yr currently, and Beijing from 37.3 percent/yr in April to 32.1 percent/yr; Shanghai and Guangzhou price growth has been broadly unchanged in recent months, respectively 30 percent/yr and 20 percent/yr.
Moving on to the less developed and wealthy tier-2 cities, new and established housing saw annual price growth of 7.8 percent/yr and 6.7 percent/yr in July. Both markets still remain in an uptrend, albeit a very modest one.
This is even more the case in tier-3, where new and secondary house prices have risen just 3.8 percent/yr and 2.4 percent/yr over the past year.
Clearly activity is concentrated in the most established and wealthy markets, where there is likely to be a greater speculative element. The problem is that these are not the cities with the greatest growth potential.
Further on aggregate activity, we note finally that momentum in housing sales and starts has already turned down.
The outlook for real estate investment in late-2016 and into 2017 is fragile and unlikely to provide a significant contribution to aggregate growth.