Melbourne houses set to fall the most in 2019: NAB survey

A NAB survey has forecast Melbourne house prices to fall 7 per cent in 2019, more than the drop expected in Sydney house prices.

Sydney house prices are forecast fall 5.4 per cent in 2019.

The only capital cities forecast to grow in 2019 or 2020 are Adelaide and Hobart.

The NAB survey suggests Adelaide house prices will grow 1.7 per cent in 2019 and 2020 while Hobart house prices grow 1.8 per cent in 2019 and 2020.

In the uncertain market Australians plan to sit tight and do nothing in the 2019 property market, according to the NAB survey.

On average, consumers expect price falls of ‐2.1% over the next 12 months, according to property professional forecasts in NAB’s latest Residential Property Survey. 

NAB's survey found that New South Wales (‐3.1%) and Victoria (‐2.9%) are expected to lead the way down, with consumers a little less pessimistic than property professionals.  

Numerous consumers in VIC (39%) and NSW (37%) anticipate price drops of 5% or more with 16% and 17% respectively also predicting falls of more than 10%.

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Tasmania is the only state with positive expectations (2.2%).

“Tasmanians are by far the most positive across states, with almost 1 in 2 people there still expecting a positive price outcome, followed by Queensland at around 1 in 3”, said Mr. Oster.

Interestingly 1 in 5 consumers in New South Wales and Victoria still expect house prices to grow next year.  

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By region the downturn is being driven by expectations for larger falls in capital city house prices (‐2.8%), with smaller falls in rural towns (‐1.0%) and major regional cities (‐0.9%).

Consumers living more than 5km from the nearest town (or the ‘bush’) are on average predicting modest growth of 0.6%.