2019 Property Price Forecast

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Here’s the dumbest question an investor can ask: is this a good time to buy real estate?
The question shows a fundamental and dangerous lack of understanding about property.
A much smarter question is: WHERE is it a good time to buy real estate? Because in a nation as large and as diverse as Australia, at any point in time it’s a good time to buy somewhere. The trick is finding those locations where it’s opportune to buy.
I find myself constantly explaining to consumers that there is no such creature as “the Australian property market”. People think there is because the media keeps telling them there is, aided and abetted by economists who see everything nationally.
The headlines keep proclaiming that “Australian property prices” are falling, because those who think nationally describe housing market growth or decline with a single figure to measure the entire nation.
It’s a ludicrous proposition and one that misleads and misinforms consumers.
So here we are again at the start of a new year and it’s opportune once again to tell people that the essence of success in property investment is understanding that we don’t have one market in Australia.
We have lots of markets and your objective is to avoid the ones which are in decline and locate the ones that are rising or will soon do so.
Fortunately, this is not difficult – so long as you can kick the newspaper reading habit and conduct proper research and acquire real knowledge.
If you’re willing and able to do that, you’ll be miles ahead of the herd and one of the relatively few who will succeed in this business.
If you’ve been searching for predictions on likely outcomes in 2019 – and you’ve been using mainstream media as your primary source – you’ll be massively confused and misinformed, because newspapers and other tabloid media like the ABC have featured only those who have forecast major and widespread price decline.
The vast majority of forecasters – the calm, sensible, rational ones like BIS, Domain, SQM Research, Propertyology and most of the major lenders – have predicted fairly optimistic outcomes in 2019 and 2020. But few of the major newspapers have published their forecasts.
A common theme among the credible forecasters is that Sydney and Melbourne will bottom out in the middle of 2019 and gradually return to moderate price growth, while the smaller capital cities will show growth this year ranging from moderate to strong.
Very few bother with the regions – which is a shame because the biggest price growth in 2018 was in regional areas and this is likely to be the case again in 2019.
One who does look at the regions as well as the capital cities and presents sensible forecasts based on research is Simon Pressley of Propertyology.
Like Louis Christopher of SQM Research, Pressley presents three scenarios in his forecasting, which relate to different outcomes with the lending environmental.
His scenario which assumes lenders returning to “sensible credit policies” in the first quarter of the year (which I think is likely) has Hobart again leading the capital cities on price growth, with rises of up to 10%.
He sees Perth making a solid recovery, with house prices up by between 4% and 7%. He also expects Canberra, Adelaide and Brisbane to be good markets with price growth up to 5-6%.
He expects Melbourne to bottom out during with the year, with only moderate price decline, and Sydney falling a further 3-6%.
I note that Domain published broadly similar forecasts for 2019 recently and I think Pressley is pretty much on the mark, although I think Adelaide will do better than he predicts and that Hobart growth will be less, because I think that market is past its peak. 
Propertyology believes regional centres in the resources states Western Australia and Queensland will be among the best-performing markets this year. Pressley suggests the Sunshine Coast and Cairns will lead in Queensland, with big improvement also in Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Toowoomba.
In WA he likes Albany, Busselton and Margaret River, with Pilbara towns strong also. As always, I urge caution with any market where the mining sector dominates the local economy.
In regional NSW he likes Wagga Wagga, Armidale, Tamworth, Bathurst, Parkes and Muswellbrook, while in regional Victoria he favours Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Warrnambool and Bairnsdale.
I can’t disagree with much of that. Propertyology and Hotspotting use different methodologies but we often arrive at the same conclusions.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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Where is it a good time to be buying property in 2019: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Million $ suburbs decline as values fall: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are growing signs of recovery in resources-related markets in Queensland, both in sales activity and prices. This, plus steady performance in the larger regional cities of regional Queensland, has lifted the sector’s overall performance to its strongest position since mid-2017.
Regional Queensland markets collectively have improved in the past 12 months: in the past four quarterly surveys of sales activity conducted by Hotspotting, the number of locations with growing demand has increased from 30 to 36 to 40 to 45. The number of growth markets had decreased sharply late in 2017 but showed steady improvement in 2018.
A standout feature is the recovery in mining-related markets which have spent several years in downturn. This trend is headed by Mackay (pictured above), which now has rising demand coupled with much lower vacancies, and some suburbs are now showing good price growth.
Emerald’s sales activity is rising, as is the iconic coal-mining town of Moranbah and the Surat Basin town of Chinchilla. Rockhampton, a larger regional centre with strong links to the mining sector, is now showing signs of following Mackay’s lead to recovery.
Emerald is a standout: quarterly sales have been 51, 57, 66, 62, 60 and 77, while the median house price has risen 22% to $300,000 in the past 12 months.
Moranbah’s median price has increased 21% - but only to $200,000, still well below the former peak above $700,000 in this classic example of a boom-bust scenario. Clermont is up 20% to $220,000 and Collinsville 17% but remains below $100,000.
I’m not suggesting investors should rush out and look for places to buy in these places: these mining-related towns are highly volatile markets and more people lose money than make their fortunes there.
But the recovery is noteworthy as it’s part of a wider trend of stronger performance in regional Queensland, against a backdrop of the national situation whereby the strongest markets are in regional Australia.
A significant new event in Queensland is the first signs of recovery in Gladstone, which had boom conditions in 2011 and 2012, thanks to three massive gas projects totalling $60 billion, but suffered a property market downturn because developers over-reacted and created a glut.
Two Gladstone suburbs, New Auckland and Clinton, now have rising markets (but six suburbs remain “danger” markets). New Auckland’s median has risen 9% in 12 months, but most Gladstone suburbs have continued to decline. So, the picture is still more negative than positive – but we are seeing evidence of recovery, including in the reduction in the overall vacancy rate (now close to 3%, according to SQM Research).
The larger, more diversified regional centres of Queensland have increasingly steady markets. The Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast are both producing good results, especially the Sunshine Coast which is undoubtedly the strongest of the Queensland markets, including Brisbane.
Our latest survey has revealed 62 Regional Queensland locations with annual price growth above 7% - and almost half of them are in the Sunshine Coast region. Noosa
Shire region is thriving, after a lengthy period of stagnation. Median price growth in the past year includes Noosa Heads houses 19%, Noosa Heads units 26%, Noosaville units 16%, Sunshine Beach houses 38% and Sunrise Beach units 23%.
Elsewhere on the Sunshine Coast, Doonan’s median house price has risen 27%, Mt Coolum is up 22% and Twin Waters has risen 23%. But, in terms of sales activity, the Sunshine Coast and Noosa markets may have passed their peaks – they now have considerably more plateau markets than rising ones.
The nearby Gympie region – which benefits from proximity to the booming Sunshine Coast economy - has three suburbs with rising demand.
The post-Games boost predicted by some has not eventuated on the Gold Coast. This market was strong from 2015 to 2017 because of the pre-Commonwealth Games construction boom. Since then the growth has subsided and we can find only five growth suburbs in Gold Coast City, but 41 suburbs classified as either “plateau” or “consistency” markets – and three “decline” markets.
Beyond these South-East Queensland areas, the locations showing most signs of rising are the Fraser Coast, Cairns, Toowoomba and the highly-promising Townsville market, where over $25 billion in new investment is targeted.
The Fraser Coast region, centred on Hervey Bay, now has several rising suburbs, with Torquay and Scarness the standouts. Toogoom, Dundowran and Scarness have all recorded strong price uplift.
Cairns has five suburbs with rising demand, while Toowoomba is showing signs of rising on the back of major infrastructure and other property-related investment.
Overall, regional Queensland is showing increasing signs of joining the biggest trend in Australian real estate – the rise and rise of regional markets.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Regional Queensland property prices rising: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Suburbs comprising of larger average land sizes are generally bucking the broader capital city housing market trend and achieving stronger value changes and milder declines over the past year compared to broader capital city markets according to CoreLogic research out today.
The analysis shows the five suburbs in each capital city with the largest average land area based on sales over the 12 months to February 2019. It also shows the median value of these suburbs and the change in median values over the year.
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One of the most noticeable from this data is the fact that for houses, the annual change across these suburbs is typically superior to that across the broader capital cities.
In Sydney, house values have fallen by -11.5% over the 12 months to February 2019. Looking at the five suburbs listed, only Kenthurst has recorded a weaker annual change.
Melbourne house values are also -11.5% lower over the past year and all of the suburbs listed have seen more moderate value falls than that across Greater Melbourne.
Brisbane house values were -0.4% lower over the past year and two of the five suburbs have seen a stronger annual change.
The 0.9% annual increase in Adelaide house values means that four of the five suburbs listed have seen stronger value growth over the past year.
Perth house values are -6.7% lower over the past year with four of the five suburbs listed recording either value increases or more moderate declines than -6.7%.
Greater Hobart house values were 6.8% higher over the past year and three of the five suburbs listed have recorded growth in excess of that.
House values in Darwin increased by 0.2% over the past year and three of the five suburbs with the largest average land sizes recorded greater value increases than that.
While Canberra house values increased by 4.1% over the past year, only two of the suburbs listed recorded growth in excess of this.
Although this data broadly shows that suburbs with larger average land sizes are holding up better in the housing downturn, many buyers value larger land sizes.
As new development increasingly moves towards higher densities and smaller lot sizes for houses, large housing lots are likely to continue to be highly desirable.
The desirability won’t be only for more space, but also where the potential for future sub-division may exist. 
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic.
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Give me land lots of land: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A combination of housing values trending lower and sluggish rental conditions, CoreLogic research out today looks at the total investment return trends across Australia’s capital cities and broad regional markets.
Over the 2018-19 financial year, total returns from residential property recorded a fall of -3.3%.
Returns were down from the previous year and it was the only financial year since at least 2005/06 that total residential property returns were negative.
To put that in context, housing returns last year were worse than those recorded during the financial crisis and during the 2010- 12 housing downturn.
The combination of falling values and historically low rental yields have driven total returns into negative territory.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%201.JPG" alt="">
Looking at the national figures in the context of the combined capital cities and combined regional markets shows that returns have reduced over the year across both regions.
However, combined capital city returns have fallen -4.5% while combined regional market returns remained mildly positive at 1.6%.
For the combined capital cities it was the weakest returns on record and the first negative annual return, while across the combined regional markets it was the weakest annual return since 2008-09.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%202.JPG" alt="">
Across NSW, total returns fell over the 2018-19 financial year in both Sydney and regional NSW.
For Sydney, it was the second consecutive financial year in which returns have fallen however, it was a larger -6.7% fall compared to the previous year and the largest fall of any time since 2005-06.
In regional NSW total returns were - 0.5% lower over the past financial year and it was the first time over the period that total returns recorded a decline.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%203.JPG" alt="">
In Vic total returns were lower over the most recent financial year in both Melbourne (-6.0%) and regional Vic (4.5%).
For Melbourne it was the first financial year in which returns were negative since 2011-12 and it was the largest fall in total returns on record.
Although regional Vic total returns remained positive, the market experienced a substantial slowing from the previous year.
Furthermore, it was the slowest growth in total returns for regional Vic since 2011-12 when they increased by 3.5%.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%204.JPG" alt="">
Although total returns throughout the 2018-19 financial year remained positive in Brisbane and regional, Qld there was a substantial reduction in returns across both regions.
Over the year, total returns in Brisbane were recorded at 1.7% the lowest they have been since the 2011-12 financial year and it was the same story in regional Qld with the 3.2% return the lowest since 2011- 12.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%205.JPG" alt="">
Although returns from residential property remained positive over the 2018-19 financial year in SA, both Adelaide and regional SA recorded a slowing of total returns.
Over the year, Adelaide’s total return was 4.1%, which was the smallest return since 2011-12, and down from 6.1% the previous year.
In regional SA, returns slipped from 5.2% the previous year to 4.0%, which was the smallest returns since 2011-12.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%206.JPG" alt="">
Total returns were negative in 2018-19 across WA with both Perth and regional WA recording their largest annual falls in returns on record.
Over the year, total returns in Perth recorded a fall of -5.3% and although returns have fallen over three previous financial years, it was the largest decline on record.
In regional WA, returns declined -5.0%, which was also a larger fall than over any of the three previous financial years in which returns were negative.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%207.JPG" alt="">
Both Hobart and regional Tas maintained positive total returns over the 2018-19 financial year however, it was a significant reduction of returns in Hobart.
Hobart’s return was recorded at 8.1% over the year, down from 17.4% the previous year and its smallest annual return since 2014-15.
In regional TAS the total returns was 11.4%, which was slightly lower than the 13.2% the previous financial year however, returns remained higher than the 10.2% over the 2016-17 financial year.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%208.JPG" alt="">
Total returns from residential property have softened over the past year across NT.
Darwin recorded a decline in total return of -3.0% over 2018-19 which was a larger fall over the previous year but not quite as large as the -3.6% fall in 2015-16.
In regional NT, total returns were recorded at 7.8% in 2018-19, down from 8.5% over the previous financial year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%209.JPG" alt="">
Canberra recorded total returns of 6.0% over the most recent financial year.
The total return in Canberra has fallen over the year from 9.4% and the 6.0% return is the lowest since 2013-14. Canberra, along with Adelaide and Hobart are the only capital cities in which total returns have not been negative over any of the financial years shown.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/25/CL%20JULY%2025%20-%2010.JPG" alt="">
With early signs that the rate of decline in housing values has slowed in Sydney and Melbourne and rental yields rising across most regions of the country, the outlook for total returns over the coming year looks a little stronger at a national level.
As always, there will be diversity with most regions of the country outside of Sydney and Melbourne yet to show signs of an improving housing market. We may see an improvement in returns in the two largest capital city housing markets while returns continue to weaken elsewhere.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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2019 Property Price Forecast

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