Canberra real estate set for its strongest growth in years: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

Canberra is set for its strongest growth market in years, following a recent surge in demand in the housing markets across the national capital.

Our latest analysis of sales activity and prices shows that the number of suburbs with rising demand is the highest in the five years we have been conducting our quarterly surveys.

Our two previous reports both found 18 suburbs with rising demand, but this new survey has identified 32 growth suburbs. The previous best was the 26 growth suburbs in the Autumn 2019 survey.

Our research also reveals good price performance, with two-thirds of Canberra suburbs delivering growth in their median house prices in the past 12months. Of the 41 Canberra suburbs with growing house prices, 24 have increased more than 5% in annual terms.

This reinforces a point I regularly make: that the generalised price data published in mainstream media (one figure to describe an entire city market) often fails to tell the full story. In the case of Canberra, most suburbs are achieving price growth well above the generalised figures quoted by research firms (mostly 3-4% for Canberra in the past year).

The overall outcome is a departure from the usual status of the national capital’s real estate market, which is one of steady, consistent performance. The surge in the number of locations where sales activity is rising suggests 2020 will be a year of above-average price performance.

Canberra’s property market continues to be underpinned by a strong ACT economy. The ACT ranked fourth among the states and territories in the State of the States report published by CommSec in January 2020, ahead of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia – and was ranked No.1 on housing finance and employment, and No.2 on equipment investment.

The ACT consistently has the highest average incomes and the lowest unemployment rate in the nation.

Three Canberra precincts stand out for the number of suburbs with rising sales activity: Belconnen (eight growth suburbs), Gungahlin (six) and Tuggeranong (seven). The Inner North precinct also features prominently, with four suburbs with upwardly mobile markets.

With Belconnen, Gungahlin and the Inner North featuring strongly, it reinforces (yet again) that the strongest part of the Canberra market is in the north of the city.

The Belconnen District is a real standout, with eight growth suburbs and 10 others with steady sales performance. Rising markets include Dunlop, Florey, Giralang, Higgins, Holt and Melba.

It also has several of the suburbs where median house prices have grown more than 5% in the past 12 months, including Melba (11%), Macquarie (8%), Macgregor (7%) and Latham (8%).

Leading Gungahlin District suburbs for price growth include Crace (up 10%), while the suburb of Gungahlin is one of the leaders among Canberra’s apartment markets (median unit price up 14%). In the Inner North precinct, the suburb of O’Connor was Canberra’s No.1 suburb for annual price growth (median house price up 20% to $1.26 million).

While many of the top performing precincts are in the northern part of Canberra, the Tuggeranong District in the far south is an emerging market worth tracking.

With seven growth suburbs and seven others with consistent sales activity, it’s close behind the Belconnen District in terms of buyer demand. The rising markets include Banks, Bonython, Conder, Fadden, Kambah, Monash and Theodore.

Numerous suburbs in the Tuggeranong District have had solid price growth in the past 12 months, including Calwell (5%), Chishom (6%), Conder (8%), Fadden (7%), Kambah (7%) and Theodore (7%).

TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
ryder@hotspotting.com.au
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