Canberra

New protections will come for off the plan buyers in the ACT after new laws passed in the Legislative Assembly.

The Civil Law (Sale of Residential Property) Amendment Bill 2021 was legislated after complaints about off-the-plan contracts being unfairly rescinded.

Under the new legislation, developers will be able to rescind a contract only if the buyer consents or if there has been an order of the ACT Supreme Court.

The developer must give 28 days written notice to the buyer and must disclose why the contract should be revoked. 

If the buyer does not agree, the developer may seek an order from the Supreme Court sanctioning the recission.

The court will take into account the impact that the revoked contract has on both the buyer and seller. 

“The recent trend of developers rescinding contracts has led to great personal distress for some buyers, as well as undermining confidence in the off-the-plan property purchase market,” said ACT Attorney-General Shane Rattenbury.

He noted there had been "inappropriate opportunistic conduct” which had prompted protections for homebuyers from sunset and development delay clauses "in illegitimate and unjustifiable circumstances."

“The housing market is already stressful for buyers, and it is often first-home buyers who are looking at off-the-plan purchases. It was important to act swiftly to address these concerns and protect consumers from rescissions occurring in bad faith.”

“Developers will still be able to include sunset and development delay clauses in off-the-plan contracts, but they will only be able to use these clauses to rescind a contract if the buyer consents or if they’re permitted by an order of the ACT Supreme Court,” he said.

There are similar rules in other states.

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Canberra off the plan buyers get contract rescission protections

Geocon, once again partnering&nbsp;with the renowned team at architecture giant Fender Katsalidis, is offering the final apartments in their Republic precinct in Belconnen.

It follows closely on the heels of three already successful residential developments in the masterplan, Republic, High Society and Dusk.

Already one of the most thriving regions in Canberra, Belconnen&nbsp;is one&nbsp;of the original eighteen districts of the Australian Capital Territory.

&ldquo;The Republic master plan is built upon an unashamedly ambitious desire to reshape the very fabric of residential Canberra by challenging conventions and expectations,&quot; Geocon advise.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29898 project_image_fid=170970]

&quot;The result is a rich new definition of contemporary living that celebrates community and lifestyle, and overlays it with unrivalled value for money.

&quot;Republic will boast Canberra&rsquo;s most breathtaking assembly of private and public spaces, punctuated by five striking residential towers overlooking Lake Ginninderra.&rdquo;

Located around&nbsp;seven&nbsp;kilometres&nbsp;to the north-west of the CBD, Nightfall&nbsp;is&nbsp;less than five&nbsp;minute walk to bus stops on Cameron Avenue and Emu Bank Drive, or the Belconnen Interchange.

The artificially created&nbsp;lake,&nbsp;Lake Ginninderra, is right at the doorstep, as is the&nbsp;Canberra International Sports and Aquatic Centre and Canberra Labor Club.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29898 project_image_fid=170968]

The Republic itself already plays host to a number of dining options, including&nbsp;No.10 Restaurant + Bar Belconnen, Chatterbox Espresso Bar and Moon Restaurant, while outside of the precinct are the likes of the popular&nbsp;Bella Vista Restaurant, Benjamin&#39;s, Black Pepper, L&#39;Artista, and Ruchi.

Convenience continues, with Westfield Belconnen just a block away.

Nightfall is also a short drive from the Calvary Private and Public Hospital Bruce and the main University of Canberra campus, fulfilling medical and educational needs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29898 project_image_fid=170974]

Belconnen High School,&nbsp;St. Vincent&#39;s Primary School, Macquarie Primary, Canberra Highschool and Radford College are also close-by.

The focus for Nightfall was one of variety, with no less than 30 different floor-plan configurations available for buyers.&nbsp;

The 22-storey Nightfall comprises 334 one and two bedroom apartments with 12 retail and commercial spaces located in the building itself. There are 12 one-bedroom floor-plans and 18 two-bedroom plans.

[smartcode_project_cta: project_id=29898]

Belconnen is in the midst of a multibillion dollar urban transformation of which Republic merely plays a part, Nightfall is an interlinked part of this new blend of commercial, retail and entertainment offerings.



jordan_55689

The best until last: How Geocon's Canberra apartments Nightfall fit in to their Republic precinct in Belconnen

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Apartment vendors across the major capital cities have been securing close to their asking prices, according to CoreLogic

The latest data shows that Canberra is the apartment market where vendors do not need to discount their asking prices by that much.

The median required discount in Canberra is 1.7 percent.

Across the other capital cities there is a prospect that apartment vendors require to adjust their asking prices by between 2.2 percent to 2.6 percent in order to secure a sale.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772]

Hobart is the fastest selling city for both apartments and houses.

<img alt="" height="458" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/cl_2021_apt_vendors.jpg" width="643">

House vendors are a little more ambitious in their asking prices with the required discount needing to be offered to buyers sitting in the range of 2.2 percent to 3 percent.
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Apartment vendors across the major capital cities have been securing close to their asking prices, according to CoreLogic

jchancellor

Apartment vendors selling at close to asking prices: CoreLogic

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EXPERT INSIGHT

In less than a year, the Australian Capital Territory managed to overtake Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania to take out top spot in HIA’s Housing Scorecard Report.

The HIA Housing Scorecard report presents analysis which ranks each of the eight states and territories based on the performance of 13 key residential building indicators, including detached and multi-unit building activity, renovations, housing finance, and rates of overseas and interstate migration.

The Australian Capital Territory has benefited from steady population growth and a stable labour market when compared to other jurisdictions. This has supported strong demand for new homes and renovation activity, which has been boosted by the HomeBuilder program. Activity in the first home buyer sector has also grown strongly. 

This is the first time since 2014 that the nation’s capital has topped the Housing Scorecard.

Victoria’s incredible run of housing market success came to an end in 2020. 

Victoria consistently ranked in the top two spots from late 2015 to mid-2020. The COVID recession has seen the state slide from first place into sixth in just six months. This fall is due to a contraction in most of the thirteen indicators. 

New South Wales has also fallen to its lowest Scorecard ranking since 2012. New South Wales now has just one indicator, multi-unit commencements, remaining in the top two of the nation.

Tasmania, Queensland and South Australia have remained near the top of the rankings, in second, third and fourth position respectively. These states have endured the challenges of the COVID recession with greater resilience than Victoria and New South Wales.

Tasmania’s economy had valuable momentum heading into the COVID recession, underpinned by a substantial volume of home building. Ongoing state government support for home building, including social housing projects, will provide support for the state’s labour market.

In 2020, South Australia recorded its first quarter of positive net interstate migration flow since 2002. Many of these new residents are quickly putting down roots which has provided a significant boost in demand for new detached dwellings.

Queensland, which already had the strongest renovations sector in the nation, has seen a further surge in renovations approvals. The south eastern corner of the state has continued to attract interstate migration from Sydney and Melbourne which partially offset the loss of overseas migration.

The second last ranking for Western Australia hides the remarkable surge in activity since mid-2020. The extent of the recovery is only just starting to emerge in official data. An improving economic outlook for WA, the federal government’s HomeBuilder program and the state government’s support package for residential building has seen owner occupiers and investors return to the market.

The economic disruption in 2020 reshuffled the Housing Scorecard rankings.  
The relative strength of residential building activity across the states and territories will be heavily influenced by the take-up of HomeBuilder and other stimulus measures in 2021.

Thomas Devitt is an HIA economist
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ACT has topped the nation in HIA's Housing Scorecard: Thomas Devitt

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Australia offers some of the world's most glamourous pools, a number of which can be found in Canberra.

Despite the generally colder weather, that doesn't stop the elaborate and intricate construction of open-air pools across a number of new, planned and under construction developments.

The leading new apartment developer in Canberra is the Geocon Group with 14 different projects, across multiple stages of readiness and completion listed on Urban.

<h2>1. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/park-avenue-20-allara-street-canberra">The Establishment</a>
</h2>

Corner of Gundaroo Drive and Gozzard Street, Gungahlin ACT 2912

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="/buildings/the-establishment-90-swain-street-gungahlin" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="427" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/establishment_facade.jpg?itok=CC-PYaSy" width="580"></a></figure>Inspired by Chicago’s industrial warehouse scene, The Establishment offers one, two, three-bedroom and loft apartments “designed for luxury and forged in style,” the marketing reads. Homes begin at just $313,000 for a one-bedroom, one-bathroom apartment in the complex.

The residence offers private amenities, including a rooftop infinity-edge lap pool (pictured in the title) with outdoor spa and an exclusive outdoor strength and agility gym. It is located just five minutes from Yerrabi Pond and numerous parklands and walking tracks.

The project offers two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments from $452,900. 

It is one of many ACT offerings from Geocon Group and is set for completion in 2021.

<h2>2. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/black-diamond-final-release-335-anketell-street-greenway">Aspen Village</a>
</h2>

Corner Reed and Anketell Streets, Greenway ACT 2900

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="/buildings/black-diamond-final-release-335-anketell-street-greenway" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="428" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/aspen_village_pool.jpg?itok=sw07MWeR" width="580"></a></figure>Aspen Village features a selection of 1, 2 and 3 bedroom apartments with sweeping views in every direction, from Lake Tuggeranong to The Brindabella Range.

The residence offers price amenities including an outdoor rooftop entertaining area, including BBQs, dining facilities and fire pits as well as a heated infinity-edge pool.

Prices in the Geocon development start from $330,000 for one-bedroom apartments, $440,900 for two-bedroom units and three-bedroom apartments start from $713,900.

<h2>3. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/grand-central-towers-15-bowes-street-phillip">Grand Central Towers</a>
</h2>

15 Bowes Street, Phillip ACT 2606

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="/buildings/grand-central-towers-15-bowes-street-phillip" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="430" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/gct_pool.jpg?itok=qiCGSM19" width="580"></a></figure>Grand Central Towers comprising two 16-storey and 25-storey buildings is comprised of 448 residences. Around the time of it's announcement in 2018, the Woden development broke the ACT sales record, according to joint developers Geocon and Zapata.

Buyers snapped up more than $100 million worth of property at a special sales event, with the development’s proximity to the Stage 2 of the light rail line being a key factor in the property’s appeal. A rooftop infinity pool also helped.

“Selling 250 units, including a penthouse and 100 per cent of the commercial spaces is a phenomenal outcome not just for us, but for the whole of Woden," Geocon Managing Director Nick Georgalis said.

One-bedroom apartments start at 260,900, while two-bedroom units are available from $541,900. A Penthouse sold for $1.5 million. It is also a Geocon Group offering.

<h2>4. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/highgate-153-264-city-walk-city">Highgate</a>
</h2>

260-264 City Walk Street, Canberra City ACT 2600

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="/buildings/highgate-153-264-city-walk-city" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="331" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/highgate_pool.jpg?itok=CLbjzjJV" width="580"></a></figure> 

Morris Property Group's Highgate development in the Canberra CBD in one of their 11 developments. The 18 level high-rise development is home to 184 apartments.

Rising 56 metres into the air, the development is home to a number of amenities including an open-air pool and fitness centre. 

The mixed-use development is completely sold out and also features a ground floor retail holding.

<h2>5. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/high-society-1-grazier-lane-belconnen">High Society</a>
</h2>

1 Edmonstone Place, Belconnen ACT 2617

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/high_society_pool.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="422" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/high_society_pool.jpg?itok=R2DaUM69" width="580"></a></figure>Another development that is home to a luxury pool is the new waterfront Republic precinct in Belconnen, High Society, Canberra’s tallest towers.

The twin towers rise above Lake Ginninderra with uninterrupted views of nature. Designed by Fender Katsalidis, the towers will comprise 541 one, two and three-bedroom residences across two 27 level towers and a 135 suite Abode Hotel.

The panoramic floor to ceiling windows let sunlight flood into all bedrooms and living spaces with higher ceilings than the average apartment development. 

Also a Geocon development, it features a 'garden wonderland' style resort pool.
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urban.com.au

5 of the best apartment pools in Canberra

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The QBE Australian Housing Outlook Report has added weight to other forecasts of a strong market in Canberra next year and beyond.
Its growth forecast for Canberra over the next three years is the highest among the state and territory capital cities.
The Housing Boom and Bust Report by SQM’s Louis Christopher also has a bullish prediction for Canberra. It suggests dwelling values in Canberra will increase by up to 9% in 2018. The only capital cities tipped to do better are Hobart and Melbourne, with Sydney growth waning. 
This follows a strong period for the Canberra market over the past 12 months, although it’s difficult to know exactly how much house prices have increased. 
The latest figures on price growth in Canberra show how difficult it is for consumers to make sense of the price data published in mainstream media. CoreLogic says Canberra house values are up 9% in the past 12 months, but Domain says 10.5% and SQM Research records a rise of 16%. 
In the apartment market, SQM says Canberra is up 7%, CoreLogic says just 3% and Domain reports a small decline in prices. It’s difficult for consumers to get any direction from such conflicting information. 
My assessment - based on all available data including sales volumes, vacancies and rental growth figures - is that the ACT housing market is strong and rising, but the unit market is less bullish, having been through a period of oversupply in the recent past. 
The quarterly surveys of sales by Hotspotting show that the Canberra market has been upwardly-mobile for the past two years and this is now showing up in price growth data for the housing market.
Meanwhile the QBE report, which is fairly cautious and conservative in its overall predictions for the next three years, has Canberra leading on price growth up to 2020.
“With Federal Government employment being the key driver of economic growth, the outlook for Canberra will be closely linked with public sector employment growth,” it says. “Conditions in the house market are expected to remain largely positive, driven by population growth, an under-supply of houses and strong employment prospects. 
“The median house price in Canberra is forecast to increase a cumulative 16% over the forecast period to $750,000 at June 2020. Canberra is forecast to have the strongest growing market of all the cities over this period.”
By way of background, it says: “Underlying demand for dwellings has been largely supported by population growth. The net interstate outflow has been shrinking over the past four years, with the 2016-17 period resulting in an estimated net inflow of 800 persons. The net overseas migration inflow has also increased to an estimated 2,200 over 2016-17 and appears to be largely related to growth in overseas students.
“The Australian Capital Territory unemployment rate is tightening, indicating an improvement in local economic conditions. At March 2017, unemployment was 3.7% compared to 4.5% in December 2015. Improved demand has led to a tighter vacancy rate of 1.3% in June 2017.”
The report’s comments reinforce my viewsabout the fundamental importance to property markets of events in the local economy, rather than national factors such as the level of interest rates.
Investors looking to capitalise on Canberra’s rising market should be focusing their attention in the north.
A regular feature of Hotspotting’s sales activity surveys is that the busiest markets in Canberra are in the northern suburbs. 
Our Spring survey for The Price Predictor Index confirms that, while there are now growth suburbs across the Canberra metropolitan area, the strongest precincts once again are the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts. 
Suburbs with rising markets in the Belconnen District include Florey, Flynn, Holt and Evatt. Buoyant markets in the Gungahlin precinct include Casey, Ngunnawal, Crace and Palmerston. 
The Inner North precinct is also solid, led by good sales activity in Lyneham and Ainslie. 
Overall, as I have often commented, the stand-out characteristic of Canberra is the steadiness of its performance. 
That, plus the low vacancies and the growth numbers now emerging (including with rentals), make the national capital increasingly appealing for investors. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
<a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter.com/hotspotting</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Canberra forecasts strong next year and beyond: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This week I’m speaking at a seminar for real estate consumers in Canberra to talk about opportunities in the national capital.
I’ve just completed a suburb-by-suburb analysis on Canberra for the Price Predictor Index and have found that this market is strengthening. 
I’ve examined price data since the start of this century and I note that while Canberra is only a short distance from Sydney, usually its property market is doing something quite different to Sydney’s.
Canberra didn’t follow Sydney into a major property boom and now that Sydney is falling, Canberra is steadily on the rise. This, my research tells me, is situation normal.
Right now, Canberra has more growth markets than at any time since Hotspotting began its quarterly location-by-location surveys four years ago. The norm now in Canberra is suburbs where median prices have grown by more than 5% in the past 12 months, while only a handful have falling prices.
In this latest survey, I’ve have identified 26 suburbs where demand is rising, as well as 37 others where demand is steady and consistent. Unlike Sydney, the Canberra market has no suburbs classified as declining markets or as danger markets.
It is undoubtedly one of the steadiest markets in the nation. Indeed, I regard Canberra as the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia. 
The ACT is consistently ranked No.3 by CommSec in its quarterly State of the States report, which means that as an economy it ranks ahead of all states/territories except Victoria and NSW. It ranks first in several areas, including dwelling construction and housing finance. 
The latest ABS data shows the ACT ranks first in the nation on population (jointly with Victoria), rising 2.2% in FY2018. Vacancies are around 0.9% (only Hobart has lower vacancies among the capital cities), rents are rising faster than anywhere else and there is evidence of solid price growth. Many suburbs have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months and others have grown 7-8-9%.
Some of the recent forecasts from credible analysts suggest Canberra will lead the capital cities on property price growth. Moody’s Analytics, for example, is predicting solid price growth for Canberra this year and in 2020, both for houses and for apartments.
The results of our Autumn 2019 survey support that optimism. Since the start of 2015, demand has been trending upwards in Canberra. It hasn’t been a dramatic rise but over four years the graph depicting demand in the market has trended north – to the point where there is now a record number of suburbs with rising sales activity.
And the price data supports that. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis has identified 31 suburbs where median prices have risen by at least 5% in the past 12 months, and 22 others where prices are growing but by less than 5%. But there are only six suburbs where median prices have fallen by more than 5%.
There are 13 suburbs which have recorded double-digit growth in their median prices and these market leaders are spread across the Canberra metro area. 
But the Inner North precinct is the market leader on price growth. The median house price for Ainslie is up 34%, the median unit price for Watson has risen 30%, the unit median for Dickson is up 21%, while the median house price for O’Connor is up 20%.
The upper end of the Canberra market is going well. Markets with double-digit price growth in the past 12 months include Ainslie (up 34%), Dickson (up 10%), Garran (up 13%), Lyons (up 10%) and O’Connor (up 20%) – all suburbs with median house prices above $850,000. Suburbs in that market with price rises between 5% and 10% include Curtin, Deakin, Hughes, Narrabunda and Nicholls. 
In terms of sales activity, strong markets are found right across the ACT. As we often find, the strongest demand is in the northern suburbs, with Belconnen the leading district with six growth suburbs, followed closely by nearby Gungahlin which has five suburbs with rising demand.
 
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Canberra the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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The Canberra market continues to look stronger and is rising as Sydney is fading.
The ACT took some time to join the party, and its conditions remain somewhat less than a “boom”, but are becoming increasingly buoyant.  All indicators - sales activity, price growth, rental growth and vacancies - indicate a market that’s trending upwards.
Having previously been hampered by downsizing in the public service and a unit oversupply, the Canberra showed signs of rising in 2014, when total residential sales increased to 9,200 from 8,590 the year before. Sales rose further to 9,829 in 2015 and the market has remained busy ever since.
Total residential sales volumes have been rising over the past two years. In 2012, 2013 and most of 2014, every quarter recorded residential sales below 2,300 - but since late 2014 most quarters have been above 2,400 sales.
This has occurred on the back of an improving economy (recently ranked No.2 in the nation behind NSW by CommSec), low unemployment and high average incomes.
The greatest strength has been in the housing market, with sales activity in the apartment market falling away last year.
As a result, the most positive statistics on prices and rents are being seen in the housing market, and much less so in the apartment market.
The latest figures from SQM Research suggest a 13 percent annual rise in house prices and a 4 percent rise of units. CoreLogic’s latest data says houses are up 10 percent and units 7 percent.
The Canberra figures for house price growth are bettered only by Melbourne and Sydney.
The national capital is also the national leader on rental growth, helped by very low vacancy rates. Both SQM and Domain suggest vacancies are consistently around 1percent (only Hobart is lower among the capital cities).
SQM says rents are up 7 percent for houses and 2 percent for units, while Domain reports 6 percent growth for houses and 5 percent for units.
Median rental yields are 4.1 percent for houses (compared to 2.8 percent in Sydney and 2.6 percent in Melbourne) and 5.1 percent for apartments.
Overall, as I have often commented, the standout characteristic of Canberra is the steadiness of its performance. I sometimes refer to it as the Goldilocks of Australian real estate: not too hot, not too cold, just right.
That, plus the low vacancies and the growth numbers now emerging, make the national capital increasingly appealing for investors.
Another predictable factor in the ACT market is the predominance of the northern part of the city in terms of growth markets.
While there are now growth suburbs across the Canberra metropolitan area, the strongest precincts once again are the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts in the north.
In the latest Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index, we have identified 18 Canberra suburbs with rising markets and nine of those are in the Belconnen and Gungahlin areas.
Belconnen (six growth suburbs) has taken over from Gungahlin (three) as the clear market leader.
Suburbs with rising markets in the Belconnen District include Flynn, Bruce, Florey, Holt, Macgregor and Evatt. Bruce, where house sales have risen from 38 to 41 to 44 to 54 in the past four consecutive quarters, is typical of the suburbs that are rising.
There are growth markets elsewhere as well, including in the Tuggeranong and Inner South precincts of the city. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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As Sydney market fades Canberra gains strength: Terry Ryder

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I’ve often referred to Canberra as the Goldilocks of the Australian real estate market: not too cold, not too hot, just right.
The national capital seldom booms, nor does it ever seem to crash. It’s so even and steady in its performance, it’s downright boring.
It’s underpinned by a steady economy, high average incomes, low unemployment and the Territory Government’s close control of residential land supply, designed to keep land prices (and government revenue) high.
So it’s no great surprise that the Canberra market is cantering along quite nicely. It hasn’t replicated the boom in Sydney, three hours up the road, but sales activity picked up as 2016 progressed and the number of ascendant markets rose significantly.
Most of the pick-up has been in the housing sector, with apartment sales generally declining compared to 2015. The strong house sales activity has resulted in solid price growth, with some sources recording 10% annual price growth, while others suggest 5-6%.
Overall, compared to 2015, sales activity was a little down in 2016, but only marginally so. Sales in 2016 were higher than in 2012, 2013 and 2014, notably for houses. The December Quarter is always the highest for Canberra sales, and this was true also in 2016.
In terms of total residential sales, volumes have been gradually rising since 2012, when most quarters were a little below 2,000 sales. In 2016, all four quarters delivered well over 2,000 home sales, including 2,400 sales in the December Quarter.
The apartment market peaked with around 1,000 sales per quarter in 2014-15 and volumes have been gradually decreasing since then, with about 850 sales in each of the September and December Quarters of 2016. Previous oversupply in this market has now been largely absorbed (Canberra now has the lowest vacancy rate among the capital cities, except for Hobart) and we can expect unit sales to rise again in 2017.
Meanwhile, the house sales market has gathered strength and the December 2016 Quarter was the biggest for house sales in the past five years, except for December 2015. The number of suburbs with growing sales activity has increased significantly and is the highest since we began our quarterly surveys three years ago.
Overall, the standout characteristic of Canberra is the steadiness of its performance.
Another predictable factor in the ACT market is the predominance of the northern part of the city in terms of markets with upward momentum.
While there are now growth suburbs across the Canberra metropolitan area, the strongest precincts once again are the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts.
Canberra has 19 suburbs classified as Rising Steadily markets and 11 of those are in the Belconnen (six) and Gungahlin (five) districts in the north of the metropolitan area.
These districts also have a large number of suburbs characterised by their consistent sales levels.
Suburbs with rising markets in the Belconnen District include Flynn, Bruce, Macgregor, Kaleen, Holt and Evatt, along with Amaroo, Bonner, Gungahlin, Ngunnawal and Palmerston in the Gungahlin District.
In Holt, house sales have risen from 20 to 30 to 33 to 40 in consecutive quarters, while Macgregor is up from 33 to 37 to 46 to 51. Both are suburbs with median house prices around $450,000 and attract buyers for their relative affordability (Canberra’s median house price is around $650,000).
There are growth markets elsewhere as well, including in the Tuggeranong and Woden Valley districts, as well as in some of the inner-city areas.
But the most typical Canberra suburbs are the ones with steady sales levels. In Dunlop in the Belconnen District, sales in consecutive quarters have been 35, 39, 37, 36, 34, 38, 40, 41, 40, 38 and 36 over the past three years. That kind of steadiness is what Canberra real estate is really about.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can  <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3Cspan%20style=/'display:%20none;/'%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3EThis%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3C/');%20document.write('span%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3E" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Canberra market cantering along nicely

<html><body>
<div>A bit of early disclosure: I'll admit here straight away that I had a few gripes with the Grattan Institute during the recent election campaign when I felt they were twisting 'facts' to suit their arguments. For example:</div>
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/Grattan.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/Grattan.jpg" alt="">
 
<div>Over years of experience in housing markets, I've literally never heard of anyone paying a huge lump of stamp duty only to sell their investment property because the rents had become too high (before buying another loss-making investment property, and incurring yet more stamp duty). Would never happen in a month of Sundays.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anyway, I generally don't bear grudges, so we can let bygones be just that! Let's move on from that to today's op-ed from Grattan, which recommended that other states follow the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) lead in phasing out stamp duties for a broad based property tax. 
</div>
<div>Land tax in the ACT</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In theory, phasing out stamp duty - a pro-cyclical levy which discourages labour force mobility (if, for some unknown reason, not landlord churn!) - in favour of higher recurrent property taxes is a sound economic principle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, one always fears that new and additional taxes raised will be frittered away on infrastructure white elephants, while those of us that have already paid their stamp duties are naturally inclined to be grouchy (in the same way that I'm bound to think that Chartered Accountants shouldn't have open book exams, because we didn't 'back in my day'). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, I tend to agree with most of Grattan's points, with stamp duties being an inefficient if extraordinarily lucrative levy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, I wrote a piece myself for Property Observer back in 2013 which discussed precisely the potential benefits of introducing a progressive and recurrent property tax (i.e. not necessarily a straight land tax). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/24/ACT4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/24/ACT4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div>
 Canberra housing
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, five years in to the experiment, there was no analysis provided by Grattan of the impact of the tax reforms to date on the housing market in the nation's capital itself. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As always, of course, it's impossible to isolate the impact of shifts in property taxes. We can't after all run a parallel universe wherein another version of Canberra sticks with the old regime as a control experiment (Lord knows, just the one Canberra existing in our own Universe is plenty!).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event, here's a quick look at what's been going down.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS Residential Property Price Indexes to 30 June 2016 showed established house prices rising by +8.0 per cent, and a +6.0 per cent increase for all dwellings - rates of price growth which in a healthy market should be resulting in a strong supply response. Anecdotal evidence suggests that house prices have been going a bit silly in parts of Canberra, though I do worry about the outlook for the new apartment market in the city.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor loans have understandably declined due to the inevitable uncertainty of change. This may in part be due to tighter lending restrictions introduced by APRA in 2015, and in any case many would argue that lower investor loan activity is on balance a good thing.  </div>
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/ACT1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/ACT1.jpg" alt="">
 Less thrillingly, detached house approvals have tanked.
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/ACT1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/ACT1-1.jpg" alt="">
<div>The trend in monthly new house commencements has basically crashed in the ACT, down by more than 50 per cent since the beginning of 2011. Attached dwelling commencements, on the other hand, have held up much better, perhaps reflective of record low interest rates, a structural shift towards attached dwellings, as well as strong pre-sales to offshore investors. Long lead times Whatever the causes, with the long lead times for apartments there are presently more than 5,000 dwellings under construction in the ACT, of which only 600 or so are detached houses. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As a result of the above dynamics, vacancy rates in the capital have nosedived from 2.5 per cent in 2014 to just 1.1 per cent, even though population growth in the entire territory is tracking at just 5,000 per annum.</div>
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/VR.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/24/VR.jpg" alt="">
 
<div>According to SQM Research, after a lag asking rents have soared lately, up by +12.3 per cent over the past year for houses, while even apartment asking rents have ripped +9.3 per cent higher. And this through a period when nationally rental growth is tracking at two decade lows.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Granted this vast increase in asking rents is yet to be reflected in the ABS consumer price indexes, which lag significantly. The figures for Q3 2016 will be released next week. But in any case, when the 5,000 dwellings under construction eventually hit the market, rents for apartments at least should eventually return to flat or falling in real terms. <div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/10/24/Z1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/24/Z1.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
The wrap
<div>No strong conclusion either way here. As noted, we can't readily know the counter-factual, while some of the prevailing housing market dynamics in Canberra may be related to restricted land release, in particular the lack of responsive detached housing supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On taxes, my view is that homeowners shouldn't have to pay twice, and that will no doubt be the view of most other homeowners too. Therefore in the real world the most populous states would find it extremely difficult to phase in such a tax with the required long exemption period for existing homeowners, due to the initial revenue shortfall (look at the unprecedented stamp duty windfalls being delivered in New South Wales, for example).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'd also be very wary of declaring the ACT experiment an unqualified success while even in a low density market such as Canberra with moderate population growth asking rents for houses are rising at more than twelve times the rate of inflation!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nevertheless, it looks to me as though the rental market will probably correct itself in time with a flood of new apartment stock in the supply pipeline.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
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