The next rate move should be downward: Leanne Pilkington
While most agree with the RBA's decision to leave interest rates on hold in April, talk in some circles of the next rate movement being upward fails to account for the fact that consumers are still not spending.
A quick glance into retailers’ windows tells an interesting story.
Ever since interest rates began a downward movement in the cycle, there has been speculation as to when they may begin rising again.
Some economists are even suggesting the next movement may even be up. But on the ground, the case for a near-term increase in rates is unfounded. Retailers are still doing it tough and there is heavy discounting occurring across the retail sector.
Some retailers are discounting winter stock before the winter selling season has even begun.
In terms of positive sentiment among consumers, retail is the obvious barometer and from the perspective of most retailers, any supposed increase in sentiment is yet to flow through to sales.
From a housing perspective, transactional activity is ticking along with encouraging, if unspectacular, results occurring.
However, any recovery in the market to date can only be described as slight, and gentle fiscal policy is required if any recovery is to be maintained.
The market is heading into the traditionally more subdued winter selling period and as such we believe the next movement in rates should be downward to support the market during this time.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of Laing + Simmons
