Stephen ‘The Kouk’ Koukoulas a lonely voice as economists almost unanimous on RBA cash rate hold next week

Twenty six out of the 27 economists polled by Bloomberg today expect the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.5% at its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday (August 7).

Only Stephen ‘The Kouk’ Koukoulas – former economic advisor to Julia Gillard and soon to be Business Spectator columnist – expects the RBA to cut the cash rate to 3.25% next week.

Koukoulas heads up macroeconomic advisory firm Market Economics and his economic commentary on Business Spectator, now owned by News Limited, is highly anticipated given his leanings.

Not only is Koukoulas forecasting a rate cut next week, he is also anticipating at least two more 25 basis point rate cuts before the end of the year, taking the cash rate down to 2.75%.

A frequent tweeter using the handle @TheKouk, he acknowledged today that interest rate markets are pricing in just a 20% chance of a rate cut in August.

The median forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for just one more 25 basis point rate cut this year.