RBA to leave cash rate on hold next week as “great rebalancing” of Australian economy makes progress: HSBC's Paul Bloxham
The Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate on hold at 2.75% when it meets on Tuesday, says HSBC Australia and New Zealand chief economist Paul Bloxham.
His principle argument in favour of a rate hold is the 6% weakening of the Australian dollar against the US dollar since the RBA cut the cash rate from 3% to 2.75% on May 7.
He says the recent depreciation of the dollar has had the effect of adding to 0.1% to Australia’s GDP – “which is around the same as the estimated effect of a 25 basis point rate cut”.
“So the Australian dollar fall could be thought of as already delivering another rate cut,” says Bloxham.
The Australian dollar is currently trading around 96 cents against the American dollar having traded at just below $1.03 prior to the May 7 announcement.
Bloxham says the depreciation of the dollar means progress is being made on the “great rebalancing” of the Australian economy.
“As the RBA acknowledged at the beginning of the month, the economy was already showing signs of rebalancing.
“Retail sales are up, housing prices are rising, and new lending to households is picking up.
“Yesterday's capital expenditure survey reminded us that mining investment is slowing down - not collapsing - and that investment intentions for firms outside of the mining sector are still for a lift in capital spending next year.
Bloxham says future decisions about the cash rate will be “highly dependent on where the Australian dollar heads from here”.
He says last month’s decision by the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points was “in our view, largely because of the persistent strength of the Australian dollar”.
“The high Australian dollar had put more downward pressure on inflation than expected, which left the door open for the RBA to cut rates, which it did,” he says.
“Since then, the Australian dollar has depreciated 6% against the US dollar and 5% on a trade-weighted index (TWI) basis.
Bloxham says the Australian dollar fall would be welcomed by the RBA.
“Indeed, had the Australian dollar been at its current level when the RBA met last month, we suspect it may not have cut rates,” says Bloxham.
“For this reason, he expects the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold next week.
