APRA won't act tough, just talk on property investor lending: Lindsay David

If APRA enforce’s the assessment of a new mortgage holder’s ability to pay down their mortgage obligations the right way, it would cause a heavy blow to the Australian economy. The base assumption is that mortgage stress starts when more than 30% of household income is used to pay down the mortgage. Most households with new financing are already experiencing this stress at record low rates.

In Australia’s instance, and based on after tax income, households would only be able to borrow 3.64x the household income (unless the household already has other debt commitments) if the 7% servicability rule was to be property enforced. The only way to safely assure that new mortgage holders would be able to absorb 7% interest on a new mortgage is if it is based on the ability of the mortgage holder to manage 7% interest rates after income tax and all other debts taken into considerations have been factored in….unless you allow for dodgy measurements which Australian lenders are good at using.

As the above figure illustrated, this would mean one heck of deleveraging event in Australia if new borrowers borrow significantly less than the previous borrowers which would break down Australia’s Ponzi household lending business. Had the RBA not taken abnormal measures to save the housing market now on two occasions in the last seven years, Australia would not be in this problem so far down the road. Until then, hardly a shred of chance APRA will act tough. Like it’s associates at the RBA, talk is talk and data is data. And both have been managing a bubble, not an economy. That’s what the data tells us.

Lindsay David is the author of Australia: Boom to Bust and Print: The Central Bankers Bubble. David recently founded LF Economics and holds an MBA from IMD Business School. He blogs at Australia Boom to Bust.