AMP Capital's view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by 2020: Shane Oliver
EXPERT OBSERVATION
This month’s RBA Board meeting provided nothing new from the RBA.
Interest rates were left on hold for the 28th meeting in a row. The RBA sees the global outlook as being reasonable but with increased downside risks.
It still sees the labour market as strong and expects to see some lift in wages growth. It sees domestic growth picking up to around 3% by year end but with uncertainty remaining around consumer spending.
It sees the adjustment in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne continuing. And it continues to expect underlying inflation to pick up over the next couple of years.
A speech by RBA Governor Lowe tomorrow and the Minutes from the meeting in two weeks’ time will likely provide more colour around how the RBA sees the risks – but they are likely to portray them as remaining balanced, implying a neutral bias on rates.
Our view is that RBA is underestimating the impact of the housing downturn on the economy – particularly in terms of its impact on consumer spending – and as a consequence we still see weaker growth and lower inflation than the RBA is forecasting.
Consistent with this we have seen a run of soft data this year and corporate profit results reflecting difficult conditions particularly around the housing and consumer sectors.
December quarter GDP growth to be released tomorrow looks like being soft again albeit with public spending saving the day but possibly not enough to prevent a “per capita” recession, ie, two quarters in a row with GDP per person going backwards.
As a result our view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital