Two-thirds of economists tipping rate hold next week, with the major banks divided: Bloomberg

The majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank to wait until the November Melbourne Cup day meeting to cut the cash rate, according to the latest Bloomberg poll.

Nineteen out of 28 economists polled by Bloomberg ahead of Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold at 3.5%.

The major banks are giving no help with direction with two (ANZ and Westpac) expecting the RBA to cut the cash rate to 3.25% and two (Commonwealth Bank and NAB) tipping no change.

Both ANZ and Westpac changed their minds last week from a cash rate hold to a rate cut.

Others tipping an October rate cut include AMP Capital (Shane Oliver), Market Economics (Stephen Koukoulas), Macquarie Research, Moody’s and UBS.

Economist Adam Carr – not polled by Bloomberg – is definitely not entertaining a rate cut next week.

“RBA should be hiking rates 25 with growth as strong as we've got! Crazy that they're even discussing cuts," he tweeted.

November rate cut expectations are much stronger with 18 out of 28 economists tipping the Reserve Bank to continue to loosen monetary policy.

The RBA will make its decision at 2.30pm on October 2.

An earlier version attributed an Adam Carr tweet to AFR columnist Christopher Joye.

Larry Schlesinger

Larry Schlesinger

Larry Schlesinger was a property writer at Property Observer


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