Perth's decreasing housing prices doggedly slog towards improvement: BIS Oxford Economics

A one per cent decline over the year in Perth’s median house price leaving it at an estimated $520,000 this June, according to a report released this week from BIS Oxford Economics.

This was the lowest since the market peaked in 2013/14.

Between June 2014 and June 2018, Perth’s median house price declined by 13 per cent.

The report notes that , in real terms the Perth median house price is 24 per cent below its peak in March 2007, which highlights the extent of the weakness in the Perth market over the past decade.

“House prices in the Perth market appear to be bottoming out,” said Angie Zigomanis, head of BIS Oxford Economics' residential research unit.

“The rate of price decline has slowed, net overseas migration inflows have returned to growth, while the interstate migration outflow has peaked and is now improving.”

Perth’s vacancy rate peaked at 7.1 per cent in June quarter 2017 and remains high at 5.1 per cent in March quarter 2018, well above the generally accepted balanced market rate of around three per cent.

According to the BIS oxford economists, rental prices have also collapsed with the median three-bedroom house rent, and median two-bedroom unit rent falling by 31 per cent and 29 per cent respectively, from their 2013 peaks.

As well as rising population growth, employment growth looks to have returned in 2017/18 after declines in the prior two years.

Successive years of price declines means that affordability has improved.

Nevertheless the report suggests that despite these positives, any recovery in the Perth market will be a long, slow, grind as the city has to work through a significant oversupply as well as a modest economic recovery.

As a result, minimal growth is forecast in 2018/19 and 2019/20, before some stronger growth emerges toward the end of the forecast period in 2020/21, with total growth in the median house price of ten per cent forecast in the three years to June 2021, or just keeping up with inflation.

A lower rise of five per cent is expected for the median unit price, or a three per cent real decline (factoring inflation).

For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21".