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After an estimated 18% decline in the median house price in Sydney in the two years to June 2019, house price growth is expected to stabilise through 2019/20 as affordability improves and credit conditions ease, a new report said.
A strong supply pipeline will see dwelling completions remaining relatively high in 2019/20 after peaking at record levels in 2018/19, which in turn will dampen price growth, according to the BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report.
A total rise of 6% is forecast for Sydney’s median house price in the three years to June 2022.
With investor demand being more negatively impacted by tightened credit, and supply concentrated in the unit sector, the median unit price is forecast to rise by only 1% in this time.
However, with supply falling away sharply from 2020/21, the market is expected to tighten quickly and see price growth accelerate beyond the forecast period.
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Sydney median house price expected to rise 6% by 2022: BIS Oxford Economics 

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House prices in Townsville have declined with the collapse in mining investment, according to the BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report.
With investment now troughed and vacancy rates beginning to tighten, house price growth is expected to slowly return.
A rise of 9% is forecast in the three years to June 2022.
The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have each enjoyed solid house price rises, benefiting from strong migration inflows and an undersupplied market. 
Vacancy rates are low, but supply is rising, the report suggested.
This will slow price growth, with total rises of 9% and 7% respectively forecast in the three years to June 2022.
Cairns has not been as exposed to the resource sector and has experienced moderate price growth in recent years.
This is expected to soften some of the upside to house prices with a total rise of 6% forecast in the three years to June 2022.
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Townsville house prices in decline after collapse in mining investment: BIS Oxford Economics  

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After an extended downturn, Perth’s median unit price at June 2019 is estimated to be 27% below its March 2007 peak, according to the BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report. 
While affordability has improved significantly, price growth is being inhibited by a weak state economy, excess dwelling stock and weak population growth.
With conditions unlikely to improve in the immediate term, notable price rises are not expected to return until 2021/22 as the economy shows stronger signs and excess stock is absorbed.
Total median house price growth of 7% is forecast in the three years to June 2022 with a corresponding rise of 8% for median unit prices.
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Perth residential market forecast to remain weak: BIS Oxford Economics 

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Hobart enjoyed median house price growth of 36% in the three years to June 2018, according to the BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report. 
However, affordability is becoming more challenging, it suggested.
Despite an undersupply and strong population growth, growth in the median house price is on estimated to have slowed to only 3% in 2018/19.
With net migration inflows expected to begin to ease as the affordability of the Tasmanian market becomes less attractive, house and unit price growth are expected to remain modest and total four per cent in the three years to June 2022.
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Hobart house price growth expected to remain modest: BIS Oxford Economics 

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A weak Queensland economy and high level of dwelling supply have dampened price growth in Brisbane in recent years, according to the BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report.
The result is that house prices in Brisbane are relatively affordable, it suggested.
With credit conditions easing and interest rates falling, improving affordability will be a catalyst for raising price growth as stronger economic growth returns and the market moves into a rising deficiency.
Brisbane’s median house price is forecast to rise by 20% in the three years to June 2022, although most of the growth will be concentrated toward the latter part of this period.
Price growth in the unit sector is expected to take longer to return, with a 14% rise in the unit median forecast.
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Brisbane's median house price to grow by 20% by 2022: BIS Oxford Economics

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Melbourne house prices have followed the Sydney market downturn, with an estimated 15% drop from a December 2017 peak to June 2019.
Despite lower interest rates and the easing in credit market conditions, high levels of supply will keep a lid on prices in 2019/20, according to the BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report. 
However, as dwelling completions fall away rapidly from 2020/21 price growth is expected to return, particularly given Melbourne’s strong population outlook. 
A more constrained lending environment, particularly towards investors, is expected to contain total growth in the median house price to 7% in the three years to June 2022, the firm said. 
With new supply more concentrated in the unit sector, the report said a more moderate aggregate rise of 4% is forecast for unit prices over the same period.
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Melbourne dwelling price growth expected to return from 2020/21: BIS Oxford Economics 

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Darwin house prices have been falling since 2014/15 as resource sector investment has also fallen away, impacting on employment, migration and population growth.
According to the BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report, the market is estimated to be currently in oversupply with high vacancy rates. 
Affordability has now become very attractive, the report said.
However, without a strong turnaround in the economy or the demand/supply balance, only moderate house and unit price growth of 7% and 8% respectively is forecast to June 2022.
The firm predicts that these gains will be mainly toward the end of this period as supply begins to tighten.
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Darwin market in oversupply with price gains a few years off: BIS Oxford Economics 

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House price growth in Canberra was minimal in 2017/18 and 2018/19, impacted by record unit supply.
But the Federal election in May 2019 and first home buyer incentives in New South Wales may have drawn demand into adjoining regions, according to a new report. 
BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report said the introduction of first home buyer stamp duty exemptions in the ACT from July 1 2019, as well as post-election stability, is expected to help demand in 2019/20.
The firm said that some price growth is forecast to return.
The median house and unit prices are each forecast to rise by 10% in the three years to June 2022, although unit price rises will be weighted toward the end of the forecast period as the current supply pipeline is worked through.
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Housing price growth forecast to return in Canberra: BIS Oxford Economics

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Without strong economic growth and dwelling undersupply, there has been modest house price growth in Adelaide in recent years, according to the BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report.
Affordability remains attractive and should improve as interest rates decline in 2019/20.
These factors should lead to slightly stronger price growth in the next few years with median house and unit prices forecast to rise by 11% and 6% respectively in the three years to June 2022, the report said
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Adelaide expected to see stronger house price growth: BIS Oxford Economics 

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The fall in Sydney real house prices is close to hitting its average downturn decline at only halfway through the average downturn cycle, a BIS Oxford Economics study shows. 
The average downturn for Sydney house prices is 14 quarters and the current downturn has progressed through six quarters to December 2018.
But real median prices – after taking out the effects of inflation – are already down 16 per cent, which means Sydney could potentially see the total real price decline exceed the typical downturn of 21 per cent. <cite class="_23SOU"> </cite>
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"So far, the period of decline in these two markets has been much shorter than the longest downturn duration and around half of their respective average downturn lengths in both the house and unit markets," said BIS Oxford Economics' Angie Zigomanis who analysed five cycles since 1965.
"It is foreseeable that the current downturn in the Sydney and Melbourne markets may have at least another year to run before reaching the cyclical trough."
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However he suggests the likely scenario was a flattening of prices at the end of the year, without an immediate upward recovery.
The 1980s downturn saw 34 per cent price drops over 23 quarters.
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Zigomanis noted that inflation in the 1980s was higher, causing more volatile price swings whereas lower inflation now could curb deep movements.
The Sydney apartment cycle mirrors its house price cycle, with real prices down 13 per cent at the halfway mark. 
Melbourne was experiencing a more moderate price fall than Sydney, the report published by Nine Entertainment said.
Real Melbourne prices have fallen 14 per cent in six quarters compared with the historical average of 15 per cent over 11 quarters.
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