Newcastle and Wollongong's residential market growth to weaken in line with Sydney: BIS Oxford Economics

The Wollongong residential market has experienced strong growth in recent years, over 20% greater than Newcastle.

Primarily because of its proximity to Sydney and the potential for the population commute to Sydney, where there is a larger variety of higher paying jobs, according to the latest report from BIS Oxford Economics.

Wollongong’s median house price is calculated to have risen by 68 per cent in the four years to June 2017, but growth has slowed down to around two per cent in 2017/18 in line with the slowdown in the Sydney market.

In contrast, median house price growth in Newcastle has lagged, having risen by an estimated 42 per cent in the four years to June 2017, although house price growth in 2017/18 has been stronger, at an estimated five per cent, the report noted.

The lower price growth in the Hunter Region reflects it being largely outside the orbit of Sydney from a commuting perspective, and weaker local employment conditions that have been impacted by falling coal investment.

The economists suggest, that the market appears to be tightening, with vacancy rates in the Hunter Region falling below two per cent since the last quarter of 2017.

"Both regions will start to show slowing price growth over the next three years, in line with the weaker Sydney market", the report forecasts.

"Starting from further behind, more upside is forecast for the Newcastle market, where the median house price is expected to rise by a total six per cent in the three years to June 2021."

In contrast, prices in Wollongong are expected to remain flat, with aggregate growth of one per cent in the three years to June 2021, the economists suggested.

Recent population estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggests that despite decreasing affordability in Sydney, there hasn’t been significant growth in migration into these regions from Sydney as yet.

However, if movements were to accelerate, there could be some upside to the price forecast for both markets, concluded the report.

For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21".