Stockland’s Selandra Rise tops Melbourne’s house-and-land sales but fewer sales forecast: Colliers
Stockland’s Selandra Rise residential community in Melbourne's south-east has been one of the most successful recent house-and-land projects in Melbourne, according to the latest Melbourne communities report from Colliers International.
The report, released this week, notes that Selandra Rise (pictured below) in Clyde North managed around 150 sales over the second half of 2011.
However, the overall outlook is for lower steady growth in residential land sales over the next few years, with a combination of reduced population growth, declining consumer sentiment and changes to government incentives having already led to a correction in demand for land in Melbourne’s residential communities.
"Lack of demand, a cautious consumer outlook and uncertainty in funding on the developer and purchaser side is likely to continue in the next 16 months,” says Paul Wheate, Colliers International director for valuations.
Over the second half of 2011 residential lot sales in Melbourne’s fringe growth suburbs continued to decline falling by 21%.
Colliers International records less than 2,000 lots sales in the second half of 2011 compared with more than 3,500 in the same period two years ago.
Median land prices fell by 9% over the six-month period, from $215,000 to $205,000, but recorded an increase of 7% year-on-year.
New home approvals are down to below 6,000 across the city for the first six months of the year, compared with nearly 14,000 in 2011 and close to 16,000 in 2010.
Wheate says that after a period of high demand and limited supply, the land market was returning to more sustainable long-term averages in terms of sales rates, driven largely by the increased supply of available stock and declining purchaser sentiment.
“After the highs of 2009 and 2010 we became used to unsustainable levels of activity,” he says.
“With the declines in demand that we are seeing, courtesy of reduced building approval figures, population growth, and negative consumer sentiment during 2012, we anticipate that vacant lot and house sales will remain at current levels for the short to medium term.“
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Colliers International research analyst Margaret Bowden anticipates that the current environment will lead to a further increase in the proportion of sales of land measuring between 350 square metres and 450 square metres, and will likely lead to a more affordable median price for both vacant lot and house sale prices over the next 16 months.
The trend to build more affordable houses on smaller lots has already been picked up Stockland, which has reduced its average lot size from 569 square metres to 510 square metres. The company has pushed up the price from $362 per square metre to $403 per square metre.
The Colliers International report notes that around 82,265 vacant lots were sold and settled in the municipalities of Hume, Cardinia, Casey, Whittlesea, Wyndham, and Melton between 2005 and 2011.
However, nearly 43,000 lots remain available for sale – more than half the number sold over the previous six-year period.
Many projects continue to sell well, led by Selandra Rise.
The development is located in the city of Casey, about 50 kilometres south-east of Melbourne and about 20 kilometres from Mornington Peninsula.
Three-bedroom house-and-land packages start from around $320,000 on blocks measuring 294 square metres.
In total, 750 out of the 1,200 blocks available at Selandra Rise have been sold since marketing commenced in 2010.
Other strong selling projects include Stockland’s Allura community (Truganina) and Lend Lease’s Atherstone community (South Melton) in the western region, which sold 120 and 105 each respectively, and Metro Property’s Orchard Grove (Doreen), which has sold about 100 lots since it began marketing in April 2011. This is equivalent to 57% of its total stock.
According to Colliers International, six new precinct structure plans (PSPs) were completed in June 2012.
These new development areas will add an estimated 37,782 lots to the growth corridors of Melbourne in the future. This brings the number of total proposed lots to 135,561.
The western corridor has the highest proportion of lots (36%) with completed PSPs in the supply pipeline, the majority of which are in the municipality of Melton (35,254 lots). This is followed by the south-eastern corridor, with 33%, and the northern corridor with 31%
Wyndham recorded the highest median price for vacant lots (excluding rebates) in Melbourne’s growth areas over the second half of 2011 with $237,750, followed by Casey ($213,950), Whittlesea ($211,000), Hume ($195,000), Melton ($175,500), and Cardinia ($176,000).