Working Life

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/66828/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
When Tim Dunlop, from the Centre for Advancing Journalism at the University of Melbourne, started to research the future of work, his economist friends pointed to all the research showing there will still be jobs.
A few years later and Dunlop isn’t so sure. His book, “Why the Future is Workless”, unpicks the research into everything from machines learning to do our jobs to the idea of governments paying us all a universal basic income.
Dunlop outlines three possible scenarios off the back of all this evidence but he is most convinced that the economy, as we know it, will change dramatically. Costs will be lower, machines that learn will be able to do the jobs we do now, and, if we get the politics right, people will be free to pursue any endeavour they want to.
Rather than fear this future, Dunlop suggests there may be value in embracing it.
To listen to the interview in full, <a href="https://theconversation.com/business-briefing-why-the-future-is-workless-66828?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20October%2012%202016%20-%205783&amp;utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20October%2012%202016%20-%205783+CID_7a3e515085065110fe029595ff9c68e4&amp;utm_source=campaign_monitor&amp;utm_term=Business%20Briefing%20why%20the%20future%20is%20workless" target="_blank">click here</a>.
Jenni Henderson is Melbourne editor, Business and Economy, The Conversation, and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here</a>.
Tim Dunlop is subject convenor, Centre for Advancing Journalism, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-dunlop-206944" target="_blank"> here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Why the future is workless

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We have seen an unprecedented rise in the number of people working from home as directed by governments and employers around the world to help stop the spread of COVID-19.
If, as some expect, <a href="https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2020/mar/13/covid-19-could-cause-permanent-shift-towards-home-working" target="_blank">people are likely to work from home more often</a> after the pandemic, what will this mean for infrastructure planning? Will cities still need all the multibillion-dollar road, public transport, telecommunications and energy projects, including some already in the pipeline?
World’s largest work-from-home experiment
Remote working was <a href="https://www.flexjobs.com/blog/post/flexjobs-gwa-report-remote-growth/" target="_blank">steadily on the rise</a> well before COVID-19. But the pandemic suddenly escalated the trend into the “<a href="https://time.com/5776660/coronavirus-work-from-home/" target="_blank">world’s largest work-from-home experiment</a>”. Many people who have had to embrace remote working during the pandemic might not want to return to the office every day once restrictions are lifted.
They might have found some work tasks are actually easier to do at home. Or they (and their employers) might have discovered things that weren’t thought possible to do from home are possible. They might then question why they had to go into the workplace so often in the first place.
But what impact will this have on our cities? After all, many aspects of our cities were designed with commuting, not working from home, in mind.
Stress test for NBN and energy networks
From a telecommunications perspective, the huge increase in people working from home challenges the ways in which our existing networks were designed.
<a href="https://www.aussiebroadband.com.au/blog/aussie-broadband-reveals-bandwidth-usage-increases-by-25/" target="_blank">Data from Aussie Broadband</a> show evening peak broadband use has increased 25 per cent during the shutdown. Additional daytime increases are expected due to home schooling with term 2 starting.
<a href="https://www.communications.gov.au/publications/demand-fixed-line-broadband-australia" target="_blank">Research by the then federal Department of Communications</a> in 2018 estimated the average Australian household would need a maximum download speed of 49Mbps during peak-use times by 2026. If more people work from home after COVID-19, the size and times of peak use might need to be recalculated.
Another factor not modelled by the government research was the potential impact of an increase in uploads. This is a typical requirement for people working from home, as they now send large files via their suburban home networks, rather than their office networks in the city.
<a href="https://octopus.energy/blog/domestic-energy-usage-patterns-during-social-distancing/" target="_blank">Recent research</a> by Octopus Energy in the UK has found domestic energy use patterns have also changed since COVID-19. With more people working from home, domestic energy use in the middle of the day is noticeably higher. Some 30 per cent of customers use an average of 1.5kWh more electricity between 9am and 5pm.
Conversely, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/08/upshot/electricity-usage-predict-coronavirus-recession" target="_blank">data</a> from the US show electricity use in city centres and industrial areas has declined over the same period.
Less commuting means less congestion
Closer to home, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-coronavirus-turned-peak-hour-into-a-sunday-morning-drive-20200402-p54gem" target="_blank">new data</a> from HERE Technologies illustrate just how much traffic congestion has eased.
Thursday afternoons from 5-5.15pm are normally the worst time of the week for traffic congestion in Melbourne. Last week the city’s roads recorded the sort of free-flowing traffic usually seen at 9.30am on a Sunday. Just 1.8 per cent of Melbourne’s major roads were congested, a fraction of the usual 19.8 per cent at that time.
All of Australia’s major cities are experiencing similar reductions. Transurban has reported traffic is down 43 per cent on the Melbourne airport toll road, 29 per cent on its Sydney roads and 27 per cent in Queensland.
Passengers are also staying away from public transport in droves. For example, South Australian government <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2020/03/30/the-overland-in-limbo-public-transport-numbers-crash/">statistics</a> for Adelaide show passenger numbers have slumped by 69 per cent for buses, by 74 per cent for trains and by 77 per cent for trams, compared with this time last year.
What does this mean for infrastructure planning?
With these trends in mind, future investment in roads, public transport, energy and telecommunications will need to consider the likelihood of more people working from home.
Prior to COVID-19, <a href="https://theconversation.com/amp/flexible-working-the-neglected-congestion-busting-solution-for-our-cities-122130" target="_blank">Melbourne research</a> found 64 per cent of city workers regularly worked from home, but usually only one day a week, even though 50 per cent of their work could be done anywhere. While the changes we are now seeing are a result of extreme circumstances, it is not inconceivable that, on average, everybody could continue to work from home one extra day per week after the pandemic. Even this would have significant implications for long-term urban planning.
The most recent <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EFeature%20Article:%20Journey%20to%20Work%20in%20Australia%7E40" target="_blank">Australian Census data</a> show 9.2 million people typically commute to work each day. If people worked from home an average of one extra day per week, this would take 1.8 million commuters off the roads and public transport each day.
Many road and public transport projects will be based on forecasts of continuing increases in commuter numbers. If, instead, people work from home more often, this could call into question the need for those projects.
Areas outside city centres would also require more attention, as working from home creates a need for more evenly distributed networks of services for the likes of energy and telecommunications. Interestingly, such a trend could support long-term decentralisation plans, like those outlined in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Melbourne’s Metropolitan Planning Strategy</a>. And if such change encourages more people to live away from the big cities, it also could help to make housing more affordable.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-l-hopkins-255434" target="_blank">John L Hopkins</a>, Innovation Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767" target="_blank">Swinburne University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-of-us-work-from-home-after-coronavirus-well-need-to-rethink-city-planning-136261" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

If more of us work from home after coronavirus we'll need to rethink city planning

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Colliers International's national director of workplace strategy and design Peter Black recently participated in a panel discussion about flexible working space at Charter Hall's recent in-house workplace forum held in Sydney.
Here are some excerpts.
1. Core space vs. flexible space
Organisations are looking to minimise the work space they rent. They are now looking at "core space" and "flexible space".
Core space is defined as the minimum required for the business to function efficiently with no excess space for expansion or for specific project or seasonal work.
This is the space they will rent on a longer term lease. Flexible space is space available for their use but only rented on an as-needed basis.
This could be project space, gathering spaces for quarterly or monthly team meetings, meeting space that has specific high tech requirements or collaborative spaces.
It could even be space that is shared with startups or small tech firms that staff are deliberately rotated through to encourage cross pollination and ideas exchange.
The flexible space is located in the same building or precinct and is bookable on a daily, hourly or longer term basis.
A lot of developers are including this sort of space in their buildings. In fact, a lot of occupiers won't consider a building unless it has flexible space available.
2. Real time space adjustment
Do smaller users of space, say sub 1,000 square meter users, really need or even want to permanently rent space?
Or will they just use flexible space fitted out and maintained by a third party?
They can reduce their financial exposure and risk by renting exactly how much space they need, adjusted in real time.
So if someone leaves or only works part time, they give back the space. If someone comes on for a week or two they rent the space for only that time.
3. Shared "come home" space
Will increasing flexible working arrangements and mobile styles of working mean that some organisations will share their "core space" with other like-minded organisations?
An example would be management consultants.
Consultants spend most of their time with their clients and generally will have only one day a week where they "come home" for training, mentoring and maintenance of the corporate culture.
If they have Friday as a "come home day" why not share the space with another organisation that has Monday as a "come home" day and pay half the rent?
Taking this into account, developers and building owners will need to be significantly more flexible about lease terms, how they manage their commercial real estate and the sorts of facilities they offer occupiers.
As flexible space continues to become part of the accommodation brief for occupiers, landlords will need to demonstrate how they meet the occupiers brief for core space and flexible space.
New valuation metrics will have to be developed to account for space that is occupied on a short term basis but adds value to the occupiers of longer term leases.
An increasing number of occupiers are transitioning to a business model that is technology driven and would like to see themselves as tech companies with the same agility as a start-up.
Landlords can help in this transition by providing flexible spaces that are incubators or accelerator spaces with links to universities or other innovation hubs.
Make no mistake, we are in the middle of a profound shift in the way occupiers are looking at their space needs. Landlords that don’t listen to their clients or adapt do so at their own peril.
Colliers will be talking a lot more about flexible working space next year so watch this space.
*The views expressed in this article are of Peter Black and not necessarily Charter Hall's.
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