<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a>, in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, has achieved strong sales success with the launch of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a>, the most elevated and luxurious release to date in the $5 billion Melrose Park masterplanned community in north-west Sydney.

Around $30 million worth of apartments, across 35 sales, was secured within four hours of the release, marking one of the strongest launch results at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a>. Priced between $645,000 and $1.5 million, Aeris set a new benchmark for the precinct, with two-bedroom apartments eclipsing the $1 million mark, significantly higher than comparable offerings in previous stages.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=4945]

Veronica Papaianni, Sales Manager, Apartment &amp; Mixed-Use Developments at Sekisui House Australia, said the sales results confirmed both the strength of the market and the growing demand for premium apartments in master planned communities.

“Aeris captured the attention of buyers with its elevated location, luxury finishes and new product types including two-bedroom residences with dedicated multipurpose rooms, a first for Melrose Park,”&nbsp;Papaianni says.

“The response was immediate with over 200 people attending the launch and 35 apartments sold launch day. Owner occupiers made up over half of all purchasers, an exceptional outcome for a high-rise apartment building and a strong indicator of the desirability of Aeris as a place to live, not just invest."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=4946]

Apartments sold were evenly split between one and two-bedroom configurations, with strong demand from young couples, professionals, downsizers and first home buyers. The introduction of adaptable layouts, such as dual key and multi-generational residences, also expanded buyer interest.

“The record result builds on renewed buyer confidence following two interest rate cuts earlier this year, with another cut widely anticipated next week,"&nbsp;Papaianni added.

"The interest rate reductions have definitely contributed to the sales momentum and buyer optimism. We are seeing more people engage with the market, particularly owner occupiers who feel now is the right time to secure a high-quality home in a future focused location.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=4948]

Positioned at the highest point of the 30-hectare Melrose Park site, Aeris offers panoramic views of the Parramatta River, Sydney Olympic Parklands and the surrounding neighbourhood. Every apartment includes Miele appliances, timber flooring and smart home integration with residents enjoying access to a rooftop pool, gym and outdoor cinema.

“The success of Aeris further elevates Melrose Park’s standing in Sydney’s competitive property landscape. Aeris reaffirms Melrose Park’s position as one of Sydney’s most ambitious urban renewal projects," Papaianni continued.

"Its green spaces, future Town Centre (set to open in 2026), Melrose Park High School and connectivity to the Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 connection, make it a highly attractive proposition for both owner occupiers and investors.”

There will be 468 apartments across the 21- and 23-level towers. Only the first of Aeris’s two towers has been released to date, with the next release expected in early 2026.

Construction of Aeris is anticipated to commence in late 2025, with the first lower tower due for completion in Q4 2027 and the second tower expected in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Apartments sold were evenly split between one and two-bedroom configurations, with strong demand from young couples, professionals, downsizers and first home buyers

Joel Robinson

Strong buyer response to Aeris, Melrose Park’s latest stage

Melbourne is continuing its bounce-back from bottoming out of the property market earlier this year.

The gains are modest, but have been continuous now for the last three months. Dwelling values, which incorporate both houses and units, rose 0.4 per cent in July, according to Cotality's latest Home Value Index.

Unit values lifted 0.4 per cent over the month, following gains of 0.3 per cent in June and 0.4 per cent in May.

On an annual basis, Melbourne unit values are still 0.8 per cent below where they stood a year ago, highlighting the lag in the apartment sector’s post-pandemic recovery.

Median unit values now sit at $621,281, while Melbourne’s house median is $952,339, a gap of over $330,000.

Melbourne’s quarterly growth of 1.2 per cent across all dwellings placed it behind most capitals, though the broader mood is lifting with rate cuts and construction confidence slowly returning to the market. Cotality notes that the supply-demand imbalance remains a key driver of price resilience, with listings well below average and annual sales slightly above trend.

<h2>What happened in Melbourne’s off the plan apartment market in July?</h2>

There were key milestones across several major developments in Melbourne over July, from new releases to construction advancements, in both Bayside and Melbourne's inner ring.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gamuda-land">Gamuda Land</a> topped out <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/fareham-st-kilda-95-st-kilda-road-st-kilda-vic-3182">Fareham</a>, its sculptural residential tower on St Kilda Road.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/markscon">Markscon</a> has completed the 16-storey structure and remains on track to deliver the entire building by early 2026.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=137950 project_image_fid=281436]

“Topping out marks more than just structural progress - it represents our long-term vision to create sustainable, well-integrated neighbourhoods that add real value to the communities around them,” said Jess Teng, Chief Operating officer, Gamuda Land.

Fareham, one of the few new developments currently on the market in St Kilda, responds directly to its location along the iconic St Kilda Road. The project is targeting an average 8-star NatHERS rating, well above standard requirements for new apartment buildings.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/gamuda-land-tops-out-fareham-on-st-kilda-rd">Gamuda Land tops out Fareham on St Kilda Rd</a>

In the inner north, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/beulah">Beulah</a> revealed a new sustainable townhouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/brunswick-established-23-hodgson-st-brunswick-vic-3056">Brunswick Established</a> precinct.

The collection, known as ‘The Courtyard House’, has been created in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/six-degrees-architects">Six Degrees Architects</a> to meet the evolving needs of modern families.

The release comprises 15 two and three-bedroom homes centred on a communal courtyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136451 project_image_fid=270371]

With a central courtyard at its heart, the design reimagines the possibilities of multi-generational living, blending flexibility, sustainability and personalisation within a heritage setting. Distinct from a traditional garden, the courtyard delivers natural light, fresh air and a generous sense of space, without the upkeep of a backyard.

“The modern home should flow from inside to outside - the courtyard provides a space which joins the different parts of the home together as the central outside space of the home,” explains Six Degrees Director, Peter Malatt.

Brunswick Established is now 70 per cent sold.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/beulah-release-sustainable-courtyard-townhouse-collection-at-brunswick-established">Beulah release sustainable courtyard townhouse collection at Brunswick Established</a>

In Melbourne's west, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/spacious-property-development-group-pty-ltd">Spacious Property Development Group</a> confirmed that residents will begin moving into <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/voyage-altona-102-106-pier-street-altona-vic-3018">Voyage Altona</a> this spring, as builder Ironside pushes through final works.

Positioned within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/altona-vic-3018">Altona</a> waterfront precinct, Voyage offers coastal apartments set within landscaped surrounds. Voyage is the only new apartment offering currently on the market in Altona.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=2146]

The developer flagged the start of settlements as a key moment for the precinct, which forms part of a broader long-term vision for Altona’s transformation.

Prices start from just over $500,000 for one-bedroom apartments, with three-bedroom configurations topping out just over the $1 million mark.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/buyers-to-move-into-voyage-altona-this-spring">Buyers to move into Voyage Altona this Spring</a>

City Beat July 2025: Melbourne values continue to trend upwards

For the first time in four years, a new apartment development has launched in the growing North Sydney commercial and retail hub.

Several years in the making, national apartment developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/casa">CASA</a> has unveiled <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-mclaren-north-sydney-45-mclaren-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The McLaren</a>—a boutique collection of just 71 apartments in a striking, stepped building ideally located on McLaren Street, on the edge of North Sydney’s vibrant lifestyle precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141323 project_image_fid=3191]

The McLaren is just a stone’s throw from the new Victoria Cross Metro Station, part of the expanded Sydney Metro network that’s attracting buyers from North Sydney through to Castle Hill.

CASA engaged renowned architects Bates Smart to design the project. Boutique by city centre standards, where developments often reach soaring heights and feature hundreds of apartments, The McLaren stands out for its intentional, considered design.

What’s immediately evident is the care taken to maximise apartment outlooks. The building rises to just 14 storeys - also relatively modest for the area - but cascades downwards to create expansive terraces and a sculpted rooftop garden offering panoramic views across Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The McLaren’s podium pays homage to the site’s fine-grain, leafy character. It sits adjacent to heritage-listed properties and near the Walker and Ridge Streets Heritage Conservation Area.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141323 project_image_fid=3193]

The development offers a diverse mix of apartments, ranging from one to four bedrooms. More than half are generously sized three-bedroom residences, catering to the local downsizer market. Selected apartments feature natural stone benchtops, Gaggenau appliances, and a refined interior palette inspired by the local landscape.

The McLaren also includes a rare collection of terrace homes that echo the scale, materiality, and character of North Sydney’s Victorian-era dwellings—particularly those along nearby Walker Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141323 project_image_fid=3194]

All McLaren residents, whether in a terrace home or apartment, will enjoy exclusive access to resident-only amenities, including a rooftop garden terrace, private dining and wine cellar facilities, and a lounge area designed for entertaining and relaxation. A ground-floor retail space and a new public through-site link connecting Walker and Harnett Streets will further enhance local vibrancy and walkability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141323 project_image_fid=3196]

Colliers is receiving strong interest from local downsizers and working professionals who are drawn to the connectivity of North Sydney, and the convenience of being just one metro stop from the Sydney CBD for both work and leisure.

CASA, established in 2010 as a private real estate fund backed by global institutional investor GFM, has recently expanded its residential development pipeline nationally, with two additional projects in Melbourne and another in Byron Bay.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141323]

CASA reveals The McLaren, North Sydney's newest apartment development

The Victorian Government has passed legislation creating a developer-paid Strata Building Bond establishing much needed first level consumer protections for purchasers of new apartments in the state.&nbsp;

Aligned to that legislation the government is progressing new regulation to allow developers to insure those new apartment projects with a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI) policy, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/resilience-latent-defects-insurance">Resilience LDI</a>, instead of the traditional Strata Building Bond.

The move is part of a broader strategy to stimulate both supply and demand in the new apartment market. Recent government initiatives include removing stamp duty on new apartments until October 2026 and encouraging increased housing density around 50 key train and tram corridors.

This latest insurance reform is expected to boost buyer confidence in a market that has seen sluggish demand in recent years.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/what-is-latent-defects-insurance-and-is-it-bringing-confidence-to-the-off-the-plan-apartment-market">What is Latent Defects Insurance and is it bringing confidence to the off the plan apartment market?</a>

Resilience Insurance was the first provider to offer Latent Defects Insurance in Australia, with Sydney developers such as Deicorp, Urban Property Group, and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/northland-group">Northland Group</a> already taking up the policy.

Corey Nugent, CEO of Resilience Insurance, says the new legislation is a significant step toward rebuilding trust in Victoria’s off the plan property market.

“We work in an industry where buyers are cautious about purchasing off the plan,” Nugent says. “As a country, we need people to feel confident in that buying process. Having a Resilience LDI on a building gives those buyers absolute peace of mind when transacting.”

Nugent says as construction standards and buyer expectations continue to rise, Resilience LDI is becoming a crucial part of the insurance landscape.&nbsp;

“Builders, developers, and property owners need to recognise its unique role in safeguarding against long-term risks. It is not a replacement for other insurances, but a necessary addition that fills critical gaps in coverage.”

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/expert-insights/strata-insurance-vs-latent-defects-insurance-closing-the-coverage-gaps-for-property-stakeholders">Strata Insurance vs Latent Defects Insurance: Closing the coverage gaps for property stakeholders</a>

Resilience has been working closely with the Victorian Government over the past 12 months to help establish a workable framework for the policy’s adoption.

Victoria’s Strata Building Bond scheme, which operates similarly to the same program in NSW, introduced in 2017, requires developers of apartment buildings with four or more storeys to provide a bond equal to two per cent of the total contract price. This bond, held by the Building and Plumbing Commission, is intended to cover the cost of fixing defects found in common areas within a set timeframe after completion.

However, one of the key criticisms of the bond scheme is that it only covers common property—not private areas or structural defects. It also doesn’t address issues related to faulty materials, design, or workmanship.

Latent Defects Insurance, typically costing between 1 and 1.5 per cent of a development’s total build cost, offers far broader protection. As a “first right” policy, it serves as the primary source of financial coverage in the event of structural issues. LDI covers the cost of repairing or replacing components damaged due to defects in design, materials, or workmanship, with a 10-year coverage period beginning from the date of the Occupancy Certificate.

The New South Wales Government has also thrown its support behind Latent Defects Insurance and is expected to announce it will become mandatory in 2028.

Resilience has been working closely with the Victorian Government over the past 12 months to help establish a workable framework for the policy’s adoption.

VIC Government introduces Latent Defects Insurance as alternative to Strata Building Bond

Property developer Alta is planning to redevelop an office tower just off St Kilda Road, converting it into residential apartments.

Alta, which is being led by former Fridcorp co-owner Nigel Givoni, has paid around $27 million for the B-grade office asset on a 2,323 sqm site at 10 Queens Road, opposite Albert Park. They are planning a conversion to build to sell apartments.

During the campaign, there became a divergence between bids based on those looking to purchase for office use and those proposing residential redevelopment through adaptive reuse. That gap was over 30 per cent, Cushman &amp; Wakfield advised.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Jozef Dickinson of Colliers Residential said “10 Queens Road is a prime example of a well-located but underutilised asset that can be repositioned to meet the evolving needs of the city.

"The St Kilda Road precinct, with its proximity to the CBD, Albert Park, and the new Anzac Metro Station underpins its higher and better use. Couple this with premium park and bay views, the site is well placed to support high-quality residential development.”

The site was bought from receivers for Taiwan-backed Everland Global. They had spent $59 million on the 19-level building in 2019 when they bought it from billionaire NBL owner and property developer Larry Kestelman.&nbsp;

Queens Road is where Mirvac is currently building <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-albertine-by-mirvac-melbourne-31-queens-lane-melbourne-vic-3004">The Albertine,</a> just under 100 apartments that will complete in mid-2026.

The site was bought from receivers for Taiwan-backed Everland Global

Alta plots office to apartment conversion in St Kilda Road precinct

West Gate Tunnel

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Victoria’s government finds itself in a big hole with its West Gate Tunnel project.
As diggers lie idle in a dispute over what to do with contaminated soil, it’s facing long delays and billions in extra costs. But the government appears locked into a contentious project that was put to it as a market-led proposal, an arrangement that bedevils transport projects across Australia.
Australian governments look increasingly to <a href="http://www.projectmanagement.ie/blog/megaprojects-10-facts-you-should-know" target="_blank">mega-projects</a> to solve urban and regional transport problems. These projects are city-shaping. They can transform how entire urban regions function.
The public has a clear stake in these projects, but unsolicited market-led proposals are subverting planning processes that are meant to protect the public interest.
Market-led proposals are <a href="https://www.claytonutz.com/knowledge/2014/february/victoria-releases-new-unsolicited-proposal-guideline-for-projects-and-services" target="_blank">unsolicited bids</a> to government by private firms to provide public services or infrastructure. Policies governing market-led proposals were <a href="https://graduates.corrs.com.au/assets/thinking/downloads/whats-next-market-led-proposals-in-aus.pdf" target="_blank">introduced in 2014 and 2015</a> by state governments across Australia to promote innovation in service delivery and value for money for taxpayers.
The <a href="https://thelawreviews.co.uk/edition/the-public-private-partnership-law-review-edition-5/1189694/australia" target="_blank">increasing use</a> of <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/infrastructure-investment/market-led-proposals" target="_blank">market-led proposals</a> for transport mega-projects raises important questions. How are policies governing these managed, to what end, and for whose benefit?
In Melbourne, the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/tunnel-trouble-dan-andrews-and-transurban-face-a-parting-of-the-ways-20200131-p53wjo" target="_blank">tensions</a> between toll road operator Transurban and the Victorian government over the West Gate Tunnel highlight a fundamental shortcoming of market-led proposals. Bluntly, these are not suited to the planning of transport mega-projects because governments can become “locked in” with <a href="https://theconversation.com/impending-traffic-chaos-beware-the-problematic-west-gate-tunnel-forecasts-79331" target="_blank">questionable benefits</a>. Lock-in has been <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/b36017" target="_blank">defined</a> as “the escalating commitment of decision-makers to an ineffective course of action”.
The case of the West Gate Tunnel
Transurban’s builders of the West Gate Tunnel, John Holland and CPB Contractors, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/more-than-100-west-gate-tunnel-workers-set-to-be-laid-off-20200113-p53r1a" target="_blank">laid off 137 workers</a> last month in a dispute about liability for contaminated soil. This is bad press for the state government, which touted <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/about/faqs/west-gate-tunnel/what-job-opportunities-are-there" target="_blank">job creation and training</a> as key project benefits.
The dispute could add to delays and costs on top of two earlier changes related to the project. The first was a ten-year extension to Transurban’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CityLink" target="_blank">CityLink tolling concession</a> that will cost road users <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-19/cost-to-motorists-of-westgate-tunnel-deal-revealed/10915998" target="_blank">billions of dollars</a>. The second was an increase in construction costs from <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-12/melbournes-west-gate-tunnel-project-cost-blows-out/9248994" target="_blank">A$5.5 billion to A$6.7 billion</a> to extend tunnels to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/western-distributor-longer-tunnel-chosen-for-second-river-crossing-project-20160709-gq24uf" target="_blank">save a public park</a>.
Explanations for the dispute include the Environmental Protection Authority <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-builders-threaten-to-tear-up-contract-over-soil-contamination-20200129-p53vo2" target="_blank">tightening soil disposal requirements</a>, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-in-limbo-as-government-companies-argue-over-contaminated-soil-20200122-p53tnm" target="_blank">difficulties determining site conditions</a> during the environmental assessment process, and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/west-gate-tunnel-builders-seek-to-terminate-contract-over-pfas/11909402" target="_blank">insufficient foresight and planning for these risks</a>.
Another explanation for what happened is “lock-in”. Evidence of lock-in on the West Gate Tunnel points to deeper systemic problems with market-led proposals for transport mega-projects in general.
How does lock-in happen?
Lock-in can occur when powerful corporations partner with governments in circumstances that enable them to exploit vulnerabilities in our public institutions. Some of these vulnerabilities include increasing reliance by governments on private finance, and the short period between elections compared to the time it takes to deliver bold public works programs.
Lock-in happens when the real decision to build a project is made well in advance of processes that are publicly declared to inform that decision. Once governments are locked in to a project, it can make alternatives appear increasingly unviable, if not unthinkable.
There is strong evidence to suggest this happened with the West Gate Tunnel. <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-an-international-pariah-on-west-gate-tunnel-experts-warn-20171207-h00use" target="_blank">Significant concerns</a> were raised early on that the project might not provide its claimed public benefits.
What makes market-led proposals different?
Market-led proposals differ from government-led projects because planning is effectively outsourced to the private sector.
Market-led proposals also differ from <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/public-private-partnerships.asp" target="_blank">public-private partnerships</a>, like Melbourne’s CityLink tollway. In such cases, government plans these projects, but private firms deliver and operate them. (At least CityLink was part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/50-years-on-from-the-melbourne-transportation-plan-what-can-we-learn-from-its-legacy-127721" target="_blank">long-standing, if largely discredited, strategic plan</a>.)
Revelations that Transurban acted in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/tunnel-trouble-dan-andrews-and-transurban-face-a-parting-of-the-ways-20200131-p53wjo" target="_blank">secretive and strategic ways</a> to secure support for its West Gate Tunnel raise serious ethical questions. What does it mean to be a “good partner” to government? How should powerful private corporations obtain a “social licence” to operate?
These questions draw attention to problems inherent in Victoria’s opaque market-led proposal process. The government’s caution about the AirRail consortium’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/market-led-infrastructure-may-sound-good-but-not-if-it-short-changes-the-public-127603" target="_blank">unsolicited bid for Melbourne’s airport rail link</a> points toward some of these dangers.
What’s wrong with this approach?
Government policies for assessing market-led proposals give <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/transurban-the-making-of-a-monster-20160512-gotjm9" target="_blank">powerful private firms like Transurban</a> influence over strategic planning. This contrasts with the relatively limited influence granted to affected communities and stakeholder groups advocating for sustainable transport solutions.
Acceptance of Transurban’s bid allowed a multi-billion-dollar toll road to override plans that had been <a href="https://www.viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Victorian-Labor-Platform-2014.pdf" target="_blank">taken to an election</a>. These plans were simpler and far less expensive. The plans had been developed with the local community to better manage freight traffic by <a href="https://www.viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Victorian-Labor-Platform-2014.pdf" target="_blank">upgrading access to existing freeways</a>.
The West Gate Tunnel process involved expedited planning that bypassed broad-based community consultation. John Holland and CPB Contractors were selected in April 2017 “<a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/only-the-best-for-the-west-with-6000-new-jobs/" target="_blank">to get to work</a>” on the project. That was five months before <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/library/environment-effects-statement" target="_blank">public hearings</a> concluded in September. Over 500 submissions were received.
Add to this the suppression of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/expert-cut-from-toll-road-project-after-warning-tim-pallas-it-did-not-stack-up-20170803-gxoohi" target="_blank">independent and critical oversight</a> and a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/voters-need-to-see-light-at-start-of-west-gate-tunnel-20180219-h0wawa" target="_blank">heavily redacted</a> business case, and a very concerning picture of Victoria’s market-led process emerges. 
Wanted: an integrated transport plan
Because governments are ultimately responsible for their partnerships, the Victorian government should demonstrate stronger accountability and leadership. Victorians are still waiting for an integrated transport plan, as is required to be prepared under the <a href="https://transport.vic.gov.au/about/legislation" target="_blank">2010 Transport Integration Act</a>. Instead of outsourcing transport problems to private firms, the government should develop a statewide, genuinely consultative, evidence-based plan.
An integrated transport plan would allow Victorians to see how future mega-projects, regardless of who proposes them, might serve everyone’s interests.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131210/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-whitten-954981" target="_blank">James Whitten</a>, Ph.D Candidate, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/crystal-legacy-18412" target="_blank">Crystal Legacy</a>, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ian-woodcock-150260" target="_blank">Ian Woodcock</a>, Senior Lecturer, Director of Urban Design, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767" target="_blank">Swinburne University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/west-gate-tunnel-saga-shows-risk-of-lock-in-on-mega-projects-pitched-by-business-131210" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Gate Tunnel saga shows risk of ‘lock-in’ on mega-projects pitched by business

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/79331/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The recently released environmental effects statement and transportation impact assessment for the proposed West Gate Tunnel project in Melbourne’s western and inner suburbs have once again sparked debate about the future of mobility in Australian cities, and the ability of large road projects to provide it.
In the environmental effects statement, the assumptions behind the models on the need for the tunnel might paint a gloomier picture of the future than is warranted. Many are not inevitable and are, in fact, within the control of the state government and Melburnians.
Why we should be wary of the forecasts
The figures in the transport impact assessment are calculated using a traditional four-step model. 
Given the purpose to which the model has been put in this case, it is unsurprising that it predicts traffic chaos across metropolitan Melbourne in 2031. Also unsurprisingly, the modelling indicates that the West Gate Tunnel would ease this chaos. 
Comparing the “build” and “no-build” scenarios, both set in 2031, 28,000 fewer vehicles per day would use the congested West Gate Bridge if the tunnel is built. As it is designed to, the modelling presents a clear argument to build the tunnel.
There are numerous reasons to be suspicious of the modelled outcomes. For one, these models are notoriously unreliable. 
Research shows that half of road project forecasts are incorrect by more than plus or minus 20% after one year of operation. And for toll roads like the proposed West Gate Tunnel, the average observed error is 23% fewer vehicles using the road than forecast. 
Second, the extra 28,000 vehicles on the West Gate Bridge in the no-build case are not real cars; they are artefacts of the transport network assumptions. These assumptions feed into the models to create the build and no-build scenarios. 
The models predict a 48% increase in road traffic in 2031 and a 100% increase in public transport traffic. The transport impact assessment is relatively silent on the implications of this assumption about public transport patronage.
Cases built on pessimism bias
Studies indicate this 48% increase might be subject to “pessimism bias” – that is, a tendency to imagine the worst. A 2015 analysis found that in 70% of 35 transportation projects in Denmark and England actual travel demand did not reach the end-of-period forecast levels when the projects were not constructed.
Pessimism bias is a product of how the models understand historical road construction and traffic growth. It is likely present in the West Gate Tunnel proposal – but this cannot be measured as yet. 
The 2031 build and no-build cases both incorporate an extensive program of road network construction and expansion apart from the tunnel, which is standard practice. This includes 100 kilometres of additional motorway lanes in the CityLink and Western Ring Road widening projects. Both roads feed into the tunnel. 
VicRoads’ outer suburban arterial roads program includes an additional 700km of arterial roads, which feed into Melbourne’s greater road network. If these roads are not all built then the forecast will be incorrect.
Also, the annual traffic growth rates used in the models are primarily based on historical observation. From 1996 to 2016, traffic volumes across Melbourne grew by 2.6% annually. The model assumes this growth will continue. 
This period of growth includes the construction of the EastLink and Peninsula Link toll roads and several outer suburban arterial roads. Because the construction of roads promotes new traffic, these programs partly explain the growth from 1996 to 2016. 
Consider the alternatives
The “need” for the tunnel exists only because of the presence of extra road and motorway capacity in the modelling assumptions – and because of the absence of any estimates of the effect on car travel of improved public transport passenger and freight transport alternatives in Melbourne’s rapidly expanding western suburbs.
The package of roads that will generate traffic growth on the West Gate Bridge and in the proposed tunnel have not yet been built, and there is nothing inevitable about any of it. Melbourne’s East-West Link and Perth’s Roe 8 both demonstrate that public resistance is not necessarily futile. 
The government and Melburnians have a choice about how we build our cities. We can perpetuate the “need” for roads by continuing to build banal infrastructure, such as large suburban arterials or excessive car parking. This would create the conditions for roads like the West Gate Tunnel – or we could insist on something better.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nathan-pittman-382813" target="_blank">Nathan Pittman</a> is PhD Candidate in Transportation Planning, University of Melbourne.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-stone-226753" target="_blank">John Stone</a> is Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, University of Melbourne.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sophie-sturup-383657" target="_blank">Sophie Sturup</a> is Lecturer in Urban Planning and Design, Xi'an Jiaotong Liverpool University.
All are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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