Sharemarket

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EXPERT OBSERVER
introduction
After a roughly 35% plunge from their February high point to their lows around 23rd March, global and Australian shares have had a 15-20% rally. What’s more this rally has occurred despite increasingly bleak economic data ranging from plunges in business conditions surveys or PMIs (see the next chart) to a record 10 million surge over two weeks in claims for unemployment payments in the US. Volatility remains very high but at least we are seeing up and down volatility rather than all down as was the case into mid-March.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/111.png" alt="">
Markets usually lead and so may have already factored in the worst. And we have seen massive fiscal and monetary stimulus over the last few weeks to match the coronavirus threat to economies. So maybe we have already seen the low for shares? Or maybe not? There is still a lot of bad news ahead regarding the virus and the economic hit and we still don’t know how long the shutdown will be for and hence it’s hard to gauge the size and duration of the economic hit, when the recovery will come and what it will be like. What’s more past bear markets have often been interrupted by strong rallies, eg, October/November 2008 saw two 19% rallies in US shares followed by the ultimate low in March 2009. This could be the case here even if we have entered into a bottoming process.
So, what should investors look for in terms of when we can expect a bottom or be at least somewhat confident that the bottom has been reached? Not that anyone will ring a bell at the bottom or that investors will be bullish at the bottom.
The following are what we are looking for:
<ul>
<li>confidence the coronavirus can soon be contained;</li>
<li>measures to minimise collateral damage to the economy;</li>
<li>confidence collateral damage is being kept to a minimum &amp; signs that growth momentum is bottoming; &amp;</li>
<li>technical signs of a market bottom.</li>
</ul>
Confidence the coronavirus will soon be contained
This is important as it will give guidance as to the duration of the shutdowns and their severity and hence the first round hit to the economy. There are several key things to watch:
The severity of suppression measures.
After containment policies (quarantining &amp; contact follow up) failed to control the virus (South Korea may be an exception), most countries have moved on to suppression, ie social distancing. This has been made necessary to allow hospital systems to cope without a blow out in deaths as in Italy. The question is are they being applied rigoursly. The evidence suggests that they are. Of 41 major countries nearly 80% now have severe restrictions in place, including Australia.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/222.png" alt="">
Is suppression working? The best thing to watch for is a turn down in the number of new cases. Italy is a good one to watch as it went into national lockdown around 9 March and if they get it under control it gives other countries hope. And there are some positive signs here with a downtrend in new cases evident in Italy, Spain, Germany, the EU generally and Australia. In the US it’s too early to tell, but it’s New York epicentre is showing a decline in new cases.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/333.png" alt="">
<ul>
<li>Based on China’s experience: 11-21 days after the lockdown new cases peak, and a month or so after that, the shutdown can start to be relaxed, which is why Chinese economic indicators started to improve in March. (While some question the reliability of China’s Covid19 case data, directionally it looks right and lines up with President Xi’s March 10 Wuhan visit &amp; the restart of its economy.)</li>
<li>This would suggest that the lockdown in Italy and maybe even Australia may be able to be relaxed later this month or in May, if the number of new cases continues to trend down.</li>
<li>Of course, if the lockdown is eased too quickly this may risk a second wave of cases (as occurred in relation to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic). To guard against this, quarantining of new cases and contact follow up will have to be aggressive and international travel bans would likely have to remain in place to prevent imported new cases (as China has found). There are two things that could short circuit this.</li>
<li>
Antibody tests. It’s likely the actual number of coronavirus cases is being significantly underestimated because those with mild or no symptoms are not showing up for testing, but mass testing for antibodies to Covid19 would reveal what proportion of the population have already been infected and recovered. They will likely no longer be transmitters of the virus and should be able to return to work. Some estimates suggest that it’s already 40-60% of the Italian and UK populations. If so, there would already be a degree of “herd immunity” making it easier to safely relax the shutdowns. Such testing may still be several months away though.</li>
<li>
Anti-virals or a vaccine. A vaccine may still be 12 months away but anti-virals are being rapidly tested.</li>
</ul>
The bottom line on this is that there are a lot of balls in the air but the decline in the number of new cases in several countries including Australia indicates that shutdowns are working which in turn holds out the hope that they can be relaxed in a month or so (providing containment measures are rigorous). International travel will likely be the last restriction to be lifted.
Policy measures to support the economy
The past month has seen a massive ramp up in monetary and fiscal measures globally and in Australia to support businesses, jobs and incomes through the shutdown period and to keep financial markets functioning properly. These are discussed here and here. Some (eg in Australia) are better than others (eg in the US) but with policy makers committed to doing whatever it takes they provide confidence that second round damage from the shutdowns will be kept to a minimum, which will enable economies to recover once the virus is under control. We rate this as positive, although more may still need to be done.
Collateral damage being kept to a minimum/growth indicators bottoming
There are a range of indicators to track on this front, including:
<ul>
<li>Credit spreads. Corporate &amp; government bond yield gaps need to narrow. They are off their highs, but above normal.</li>
<li>Money market funding costs. As measured by the gap between 3 month borrowing rates and expected official rates these have narrowed in Australia but remain high in the US.</li>
<li>Default rates up only slightly. This is important in terms of assessing whether public support &amp; debt/rent payment holidays are working. It’s too early to tell in most countries.</li>
<li>Daily activity indicators (eg, for energy production and traffic congestion) stabilising. This has been a good indicator in China, but it’s too early in developed countries.</li>
<li>Business conditions PMIs stabilising/improving. They’ve improved in China but are still falling elsewhere.</li>
</ul>
Technical signs of a market bottom
Market bottoms usually come with a bunch of signs.
<ul>
<li>Extreme oversold conditions. This got a tick in March.</li>
<li>Apocalyptic investor sentiment. It’s very negative but maybe not apocalyptic yet.</li>
<li>Signs of falling downwards momentum. This may only become apparent on a re-test of the March low.</li>
</ul>
Signpost table
The following provides a summary. The key ones are in blue.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/444.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/555.png" alt="">
Concluding comment
Many of these signposts tick off positively so we may have seen the low. But given the uncertainty around the length of the shutdown, risks of a second wave and very poor economic data to come it’s still too early to say that with confidence. Trying to time market bottoms is always very hard so a good approach for long term investors is to average in over several months.
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Dr SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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Signposts that indicate when shares have bottomed: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The global sharemarket downturn will grab all the headlines again today.
Shares fell sharply in February as investors became increasingly concerned about the spread and increase in novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection rates globally. Uncertainty about the US presidential election outcome, concerns over lofty sharemarket valuations and worries about the potential virus impact on corporate earnings and global growth also dampened risk sentiment and lifted volatility.
In the final week of the month major developed market indexes - including the Australia’s benchmark S&amp;P/ASX200 index - posted their worst weekly performances since 2008.
So where do investors seek shelter in a low interest rate environment?
Well, record low mortgage rates, rising home prices, strong auction clearance rates, limited housing supply, improving access to home loans and now financial market volatility are encouraging Aussies to return to the property market.
In fact, total returns on national dwellings rose by 10.1 per cent in the year to February - the strongest annual growth rate in 28 months - with houses up by 9.9 per cent and units up by 10.5 per cent on a year earlier. In contrast, the S&amp;P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index lifted by 8.2 per cent over the year to February – the weakest annual growth rate in 12 months.
What do the figures show? Home prices
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 1.1 per cent in February to stand 6.1 per cent higher over the year.
In capital cities, prices rose by 1.2 per cent to be up 7.3 per cent over the year to February. House prices rose by 1.2 per cent and apartment prices also lifted by 1.2 per cent. House prices were up 7.5 per cent on a year ago and prices of apartments increased by 6.9 per cent.
In regional areas, home prices rose by 0.7 per cent with houses up 0.8 per cent and apartment prices up by 0.3 per cent. Regional home prices were up 1.4 per cent on the year to February.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price) was $669,037 and the average unit price was $577,800 in February.
Home prices were higher in seven of the eight capital cities in February. Home prices rose by the most in Sydney (up by 1.7 per cent), followed by Melbourne (up by 1.2 per cent), Hobart (up by 0.8 per cent), Canberra (up by 0.8 per cent), Brisbane (up 0.6 per cent), Perth (up by 0.3 per cent), and Adelaide (up by 0.1 per cent). But Darwin prices fell by 1.4 per cent.
Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities in February. Prices rose the most in Sydney (up by 10.9 per cent), followed by Melbourne (up by 10.7 per cent), Hobart (up by 5.0 per cent), Canberra (up by 4.1 per cent), Brisbane (up by 1.9 per cent) and Adelaide (up by 0.4 per cent). But prices were down in Darwin (down by 7.8 per cent) and Perth (down by 4.0 per cent).
Total returns on national dwellings rose by 10.1 per cent in the year to February with houses up by 9.9 per cent on a year earlier and units up by 10.5 per cent. In contrast, the S&amp;P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index lifted by 8.2 per cent over the year to February.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ indexes - February
The Australian Industry Group’s (AiGroup) Performance of Manufacturing Index fell by 1.1 points to a near 5-year low of 44.3 points in February. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in activity.
The decline was driven by weaker exports (down 5.3 points to 44.5 points); slower production (down 4.8 points to 40.4 points); slower sales (down 2.3 points); and falling new orders (down 2.0 points to 41.7 points). But supplier deliveries (+2.8 points to 46.5 points); finished stocks (+0.7 points to 48.5 points) and employment (up 0.7 points to 49.1 points) all rose.
The AiGroup said, “All manufacturing sectors experienced weaker conditions in February than in January (trend). Food &amp; beverages is now the only manufacturing sector to be expanding (results over 50 points) but its growth has slowed significantly in recent months. All other sectors contracted in February and at a faster pace than in January (trend).”
“The production, sales, new orders and exports indices fell further into contraction in February and were firmly negative. COVID-19 is already denting exports of Australian manufactured goods, particularly consumable items into China. The ‘heavy’ manufacturing sectors are reporting supply chain disruptions because of freight and factory closures in China. Locally, drought remains a major concern in some parts of the country, despite better recent rain. The ‘metals’ and ‘building materials, wood, furniture &amp; other’ sectors reported weak demand from the construction industry.
The ‘final’ CBA/IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose by 0.6 points to 50.2 points in February. Any reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity.
According to CBA/IHS Markit, “February saw a rise in the headline PMI, fuelled principally by longer delivery times as supply chains were affected due to the coronavirus outbreak. Output, new orders and employment all continued to fall, which saw firms cut back purchasing activity and tap into current inventories. Stocks of both inputs and finished goods fell. Business confidence, while positive, stayed below the historical average. On the price front, input price inflation remained solid, while charges grew at a slower pace.”
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
News over the weekend that China’s February manufacturing and services sector contracted by the most on record – due to the virus-induced shutdown of industry and supply chains – have increased investor concerns about a potential global recession. On Friday, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the US central bank is ready to cut interest rates to support the US economy.
Now money markets are convinced that Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will ‘pull the trigger’ and cut rates to a record low 0.5 per cent tomorrow in an attempt to shield the Aussie economy from downturn in the education, tourism and resources sectors. While lower interest and mortgage rates are good news for those with a mortgage – boosting household cashflows due to lower borrowing costs – self-funded retirees relying on term deposits will be displeased.
The latest Aussie manufacturing activity indicators were mixed. The AiGroup factory activity measure is contracting by the most since 2015 with weak consumer demand and now the virus outbreak weighing on business confidence and conditions. Supply chains are being affected by reduced capacity and the shutdown of industry in China.
The one bright spot for the economy is the housing market. Home prices outside of Darwin are booming. Additional rate cuts by the Reserve Bank will provide even further impetus for investors searching for yield with Aussie shares down from record highs and government bond yields hitting record lows. Home values in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Melbourne all hit record highs in February.
RYAN FELSMAN is a Senior Economist for CommSec
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Residential property has outperformed shares: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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Guest observer
Introduction
At the start of last year, with global and Australian shares down around 20% from their April/May 2015 highs, the big worry was that the global economy was going back into recession and that there will be another Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Now, with share markets having had a strong run higher, it seems to have been replaced by worries that a crash is around the corner and this will give us the global recession and new GFC that we missed last year!
Australians seem particularly vulnerable to worries these days. On the weekend I read that Australians are suffering from an “epidemic of anxiety” and that out of a survey of 24 nations Australians ranked in the upper half in terms of worries about a health epidemic (9th highest), a terrorist attack (8th highest) and a nuclear attack (5th highest) – way above South Korea in terms of the latter despite Kim Jong-un’s new found nuclear capability just across the border! And a Roy Morgan survey has found that only 31% of surveyed Australians expect next year to be a better year than 2017, which is the lowest on record and only just above the 30% who expect next year to be worse. See the next chart.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/30/Next_year.jpg" alt="">
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In fact, it’s the lowest net balance of “better” less “worse” expectations for the year ahead since Australia was in the midst of the last recession in 1990. Whatever happened to the “she’ll be right” approach? Surely it’s not that bad!
At a broader global level, there seems to be a never ending worry list which since the GFC has rolled on through worries about a new collapse in the US (on the back of too much debt, hyperinflation on the back of money printing, deflation after the hyperinflation failed to materialise, a slump when monetary stimulus ends, or whatever), to worries the Eurozone will blow (or vote) itself apart, to worries that China will collapse as a result of too much debt and/or a property crash, interspersed by worries about the emerging world, Ebola, Ukraine, deflation, North Korea and various elections including the advent of President Trump along the way. And of course, the worries about Australia collapsing keep rolling on with the focus switching from a commodity crash to a housing crash.
Despite this ongoing worry list, investment returns have generally been good. Most assets have had good returns over the last year and the last five years, and balanced growth superannuation funds after fees and taxes returned an average 8.2% over the year to September and 9.3% per annum over the last five years.
So why the persistent gloom? 
Some might argue that post the GFC, the world is now a more negative place and so gloominess is understandable today. But given the events of the last century – ranging from flu pandemics, the Great Depression, several major wars and revolutions, numerous recessions and financial panics – it’s doubtful that this is the case.
More fundamentally, it’s well known that humans are naturally attracted to bad news stories. The evolution of the human brain through the Pleistocene age where the trick was to dodge woolly mammoths and sabre toothed tigers means that much more space in our brains is devoted to threat than reward. This means that we are constantly on the lookout for risks and so more disposed to check out bad news stories as opposed to good news. In the investment world, an outcome of this is known as “loss aversion” in that a financial loss is felt far more keenly than a same-sized gain. As a result, doomsters are far more likely to be seen as deep thinkers than optimists and “bad news sells”.
But there is nothing new here. What has changed is the flow of information from a trickle to an avalanche. This is the case everywhere and the investment world is not immune. As the well know
US stock picker Peter Lynch observed “stock market news has gone from hard to find (in the 1970s and early 1980s), then easy to find (in the late 1980s), then hard to get away from”. This can be great in a way, but it can also just add to confusion.
But more significantly, the information age has led to not just greater access to information but also an explosion of media begging for attention. And in the scramble to get me and you to tune in, bad news and gloom beats good news and balance. I just have to swipe right (no, not Tinder!) on my smart phone to see an updated list of links to bad news stories and celebrity gossip (but rarely anything positive!).
Arguably, the political environment has added to this in some countries with politicians becoming more polarised to the left and the right and more willing to scare the electorate into supporting them.
Despite the improvement in the global economy over the last year, Google the words “the coming financial crisis” and you’ll still get 49.3 million search results including such gems as:
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  “The next financial crisis is coming ‘with a vengeance’.” 
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  “The next financial crisis is coming, I just don’t know when.” 
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  “Financial crisis coming by end 2018: Prepare urgently."
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  “Trump can’t stop the next financial crisis.” 
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  “It’s a scary time with a global crisis on the way.” 
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<li> “Major crisis coming, bigger than 2008 financial crisis.”</li>
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And on and on.
Of course, people have always been making such predictions of imminent disaster – my favourite was Ravi Batra’s The Great Depression of 1990, which didn’t happen so it morphed into The Crash of the Millennium, which saw an inflationary depression that didn’t happen either. It’s just that it’s now a lot easier and cheaper to access it and be scared by it.
So with all the talk of another global financial crisis and some sort of collapse in Australia, it’s not that surprising that people are apprehensive and Australians are less positive about the future.
But the world is actually looking good
While all countries have their challenges, the global economy is in its best shape in years:
After years of downgrading its global growth forecasts, the IMF has been revising them up this year.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/30/GDP%20forecasts.jpg" alt="" style="font-size: 12.16px;"> <ul>
<li>
 
</li>
<li>Global profits are up around 15% over the last year.</li>
<li>Unemployment has been falling virtually everywhere (except Japan where it’s just 2.8%!).</li>
</ul>
And while Australia could be doing a lot better and is not without its issues (notably around record low wages growth, high underemployment, expensive housing and high household debt), the economy has managed to keep growing despite the mining investment boom going bust and should benefit from stronger global growth and the end of the drag from falling mining investment. All of which should be able to keep it growing, albeit we don’t see strong enough growth or inflation for the RBA to start raising rates for a while yet.</div>
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The case for optimism as an investor 
Dr Don Stammer – a doyen of Australian economists and investing – has said there are six things we owe our children or grandchildren: a sense of humour; a reasonable education; an early understanding of the magic of compounding; an awareness the cycle lives on; some help when they buy their first house or apartment; and a feeling of optimism. I completely agree. I have written lots on the importance of compounding and the cycle but I think a degree of optimism is essential if you wish to succeed as an investor. 
Benjamin Graham once said: “To be an investor you must be a believer in a better tomorrow.” If you don’t believe the bank will look after your term deposits, that most borrowers will pay back their debts, that most companies will see rising profits over time, that properties will earn rents etc then there is no point investing. This is flippant but true – to be a successful investor you need a favourable view of the future. 
Of course this does not mean blind optimism where you get sucked in with the crowd when it becomes euphoric or into every new whiz bang investment obsession that comes along (with bitcoin the latest in a long list of manias that goes back to Dutch tulip bulbs and includes the dot com stocks of the late 1990s). If an investment looks and feels too good to be true and the crowd is piling in, then it probably is... particularly if the main reason you are buying in is because of huge recent gains and their extrapolation off into to the future. So the key is cautious optimism, not blind optimism. 
But when it comes to conventional investments like shares, since 1900 shares in the US have had positive returns around seven years out of ten and in Australia it’s around eight years out of ten. So getting too hung up in permanent pessimism on the next financial crisis and when it will come and what will on the basis of history inevitably drive the market down in the two or three years out of ten may mean missing out on the years it rises. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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Why cautious optimism is better for your investment health than perma pessimism

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GUEST OBSERVER
Investors have had a tough start to 2016. Financial markets are extremely volatile and many are wondering what investment strategy to pursue.
There are a huge number of approaches used to decide the best time to buy and sell financial assets, such as shares, bonds, commodities, and currencies. This activity is variously referred to using terms such as “active management” and “market timing”.
Hindsight can be a fine thing for the investor or asset manager. But what they need to know is how they can best assess in advance whether an active management technique is going to add value or not. Small gains in performance can result in large amounts of wealth being created given the large amount of money under management.
There have been numerous advances in this area by researchers recently, which may help investors to make decisions with more confidence, especially in the current environment of uncertainty.
The first thing to consider is whether the returns generated over the historical test period are statistically significantly different to zero. Just because an approach generates an impressive average return does not guarantee that it passes the statistical significance test. Large average returns may be driven by a small number of extremely good daily or monthly returns, which are not representative of the usual return.
Traditional statistical significance tests can often give misleading results but new improved methods are very robust. Related to this is the sequence of returns. It is important to investigate this because an approach that generates superior returns overall – but has long periods of sub-standard returns – will be hard to stick with in reality.
Risk is another important consideration. Simply finding that a strategy has generated historical returns is not sufficient as a risky strategy needs to generate larger returns if it is to appeal to the average investor who is risk averse. The risk-adjusted returns of a technique therefore need to be determined. Sharpe ratios are commonly used in this area but recently developed approaches, which overcome some of their limitations, have been shown to be superior.
Testing large numbers of approaches in historical data raises the possibility that one technique will show promise by chance. Indeed, we know of one paper that found over a certain time period the best predictor of movements in the S&amp;P 500 index was butter production in Bangladesh! It is therefore important to account for “data snooping bias” using an appropriate statistical technique before concluding whether an active management approach does in fact produce historical superior returns beyond what might be expected by chance.
Some approaches work well in certain periods but poorly in others. It is therefore important to investigate the historical performance in periods such as bull and bear markets and recessions and expansions. While consistent historical performance over these periods does not guarantee future success, a finding of sub-standard performance in one of these historical settings could be indicative of poor performance in these periods in the future.
It is also important to conduct style analysis to get an appreciation of what influences the returns of an active management approach. Addressing questions such as “do the equities in the portfolio tend to do better when oil prices or the exchange rate are going up or down?” provides some intuition which can be used to determine the likely performance going forward.
This type of analysis can be extended to determine the proportion of historical out-performance that is driven by the assets that are in the portfolio or decisions around when to buy and sell the various components of the portfolio.
Transaction costs are often a large determinant of the returns an investor receives. An investment approach that requires frequent rebalancing will incur larger transactions costs than a more passive approach, and the types of assets that are chosen will also influence the level of transaction costs.
A logical way to quantify the performance of a strategy is to document the level of “break-even” transaction costs, that is level that transaction costs would have to be at before the profits disappeared. If these are much larger than reasonable estimates of actual transaction costs it is clear the strategy’s historical returns are greater than its transaction costs.
Conducting out-of-sample tests is another important approach. Refining a technique on a subset of available data and then testing its performance on remaining data can add confidence around whether it has the potential to add value going forward.
While there is never complete certainty that the superior returns of an active management approach in the past will be repeated in the future, the approaches we have discussed give an asset manager or individual the best chance of identifying techniques with robust returns.
 
Ben Marshall is MSA Charitable Trust professor in Finance, Massey University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ben-marshall-238925" target="_blank">here</a>.
Nhut (Nick) Hoang Nguyen is associate professor, School of Economics and Finance , Massey University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nhut-nick-hoang-nguyen-238929" target="_blank">here</a>.
Nuttawat Visaltanachoti is professor in Finance, School of Economics and Finance , Massey University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nuttawat-visaltanachoti-238930" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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