Property News

There are five reasons to expect a further slowing in the national average home price growth next year, which will follow by a peak in prices sometime in the second half of 2022, and then falling prices in 2023, according to Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.

"We remain of the view that we may be getting closer to the end of the 25-year bull market in property prices," he said.

He suggests firstly worsening affordability is constraining more buyers. Affordability has long been an issue in the Australian property market, he noted.

"While interest rates are still low the surge in house prices relative to wages has gone hand in hand with a surge in the level of debt relative to incomes. 

"That now means that it takes 8 years to save for a deposit in Sydney and 7 years in Melbourne.

"This is now squeezing out first home buyers yet again (which has seen their share of new housing finance fall from 25% to 18% since December) and increasingly existing owners looking to trade up are being squeezed out as well. 

"This is particularly an issue in Sydney and Melbourne and partly explains their slowing relative to other cities.

Secondly Oliver noted the supply/ demand balance is starting to improve. 

"Supply is on the rise again reflecting pent up selling, the end of lockdowns and high prices. 

"This could start to reverse the chronically low level of listings seen over the last 18 months. 

"More fundamentally strong levels of home building over the last two years following the unit building boom since 2015, combined with the absence of immigrants - which has resulted in a slump in underlying housing demand - have started to see the underlying supply/demand balance come under control," he noted. 

Thirdly Oliver noted rising interest rates will reduce the amount new borrowers can borrow and hence pay for dwellings. 

"Fixed mortgage rates are already on the rise (with several banks increasing them by 0.5% or more) and the RBA is expected to start raising the cash rate (and hence variable mortgage rates) from late next year. Rising interest rates are likely to be a big dampener. 

"The collapse in fixed rates to 2% or less played a big role in the recent boom. 

"Fixed mortgages have accounted for 50% or so of new loans recently, so are far more significant than they used to be in impacting new buyer demand (even though there is no impact on existing fixed borrowers until they roll off current terms which may become an issue next year)," he noted.

Fourthly Oliver noted macro prudential tightening is reducing the amount new borrowers can borrow and pay for homes. 

"So far APRA has told banks to increase the interest rate serviceability buffer they apply to borrowing rates in assessing borrowers from 2.5% to 3% and are now moving to require banks to hold more capital for higher risk loans. 

"The former will reduce the amount borrowers can borrow and the latter will raise the interest rate on or reduce the supply of higher risk loans. 

"Further tightening measures are possible."

Finally Oliver noted a rotation in consumer spending back towards services as reopening occurs (covid and the Omicron variant permitting) may reduce housing demand.

He noted there had been a "sharp loss of momentum since March" as a result of worsening affordability, rising supply, rising rates, macro prudential tightening and some eventual rotation in spending away from housing. 

"We expect a further slowing in home price gains to 5% in 2022, with prices likely to start falling from around September/October next year resulting in a 5 to 10% decline in prices in 2023," he said.



Oliver said the anticipated gradual recovery in immigration may take pressure off capital city prices.

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Five reasons to expect a cooling in the property market: Shane Oliver

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There are just the six houses on what's become known around the world as Ramsay Street, Erinsborough.

And despite all the comings and goings of the residents on the television show, only four of the six at the Vermont South setting have actually been sold over the past 30 years during which the internationally broadcast series, Neighbours has been broadcast.

Two of the four sold on the tightly held Pin Oak Court cul de sac have been bought by an expatriate Neighbours fanatic living in the UK who most recently paid $867,000 in early 2013 to secure his second 'Ramsay Street' house.

Andrew Whitney, who directs a private jet and helicopter charter flight company in the UK, outbid seven for the Pin Oak Court, Vermont South offering.

Also known as 30 Ramsay Street, the home of Jarrod 'Toadie' Rebecchi, it was offered through <a href="https://www.barryplant.com.au/property.cfm?propertyID=2272561" target="_blank">Barry Plant Real Estate</a>.

The former Blackburn North resident bought another Pin Oak Court house 17 years ago before moving to the UK for $238,000.

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Mr Whitney once told the Herald Sun that he knows the street better than anyone.

"I record every episode of Neighbours," he said.

It was sold by the downsizing vendor Faye Pierce, with the buyer able to join the other court residents who are paid a substantial annual fee by the show's producers in agreeing to avoid changes to their facades without consultation and allowing external regular filming. It has been reported that even a letterbox change could be catastrophic for continuity.

<a href="/property-observer" target="_blank">The four-bedroom home was built with her husband in 1973</a> with its expansive covered rear deck having elevated views over Billabong Park.

Marketed as the 'Neighbours House' at 3 Pin Oak Court, the property's marketing won a 2013 real estate marketing award for the Barry Plant Monash Group.

It was advertised as "Your chance to own a piece of Australian television history!"

The most traded on the street sold at $126,000 in 1984, just before the show began; then in 1999 at $312,580 and then in 2007 at $630,000.

The home of the Robinson family, where much of the early action in the soap took place, is number 6. 

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772]

The original characters included plumber Max Ramsay (Francis Bell), after whose family the street was named, his migrant wife Maria (Dasha Blahova) and their sons Shane (Peter O'Brien) and Danny (David Clencie).

Widower Jim Robinson (Alan Dale) lived next door with his kids, Paul (Stefan Dennis), Julie (Vikki Blanche), Scott (Darius Perkins/later Jason Donovan) and Lucy (Kylie Flinker), and mother-in-law Helen Daniels (Anne Haddy).

It was launched by the Seven Network on March 18, 1985, but struggled for four months before cancellation, only to be reborn at Channel Ten to then become Australia's longest-running prime time soap, and the second longest in the world behind Britain's Coronation Street.

Neighbours was repackaged debuting on Ten in January 1986 with huge credit to Ten's director of publicity, Brian Walsh, who toured the cast across shopping centres, generating unprecedented interest in afternoon newspapers, with the likes of The Daily Mirror's David Brown securing regular front page exclusives on the latest for Scott and Charlene (Jason Donovan and Kylie Minogue), which television critic Michael Idato once described as one of Australian television's iconic romances, on and off screen.

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One story line through the years was changing the name of the street to Ramsbottom Street. Harold Bishop led a protest against the name change and won.

The median price currently listed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">CoreLogic RP Data</a> for houses in Vermont South is $815,000. Back in the mid-1980s it was around $119,000.

The last sale prices on Pin Oak are:

<ul>
<li>3 Pin Oak $867,000 2013</li>
	<li>2 Pin Oak $630,000 - 2007</li>
	<li>6 Pin Oak $238,000 - 1998</li>
	<li>1 Pin Oak $235,000 - 1991</li>
	<li>4 Pin Oak $66,950 - 1981</li>
	<li>5 Pin Oak $62,000 - 1978</li>
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Not much movement among Neighbours on Pin Oak Court as Ramsay Street celebrates 30 years

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The former NAB banker Lukas Kamay has been sentenced to jail for seven years, three months. The minimum served with be four years, six months.

Kamay was accused of using insider Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) information to make over $7 million by trading in the Australian dollar online over 10 months.

Police alleged Kamay, of Melbourne, used confidential ABS statistics to trade online, betting against foreign exchange derivative movements in the Australian dollar after allegedly being in receipt of national economic, retail trade and labour-force statistics before the normal 11.30am release.

Kamay plead guily to the charges. His accomplice, former ABS analyst Christopher Hill, was sentenced to three years and three months, to serve a minimum of two years.

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Supreme Court Justice Elizabeth Hollingworth said it was "the worst instance of insider trading to come before the courts in this country".

Kamay spent some of the proceeds on an apartment in The Block Albert Park.

His headline grabbing Albert Park purchase was the luxury apartment decorated by the runner-up Adelaide twins, Alisa and Lysandra which sold at its April auction for $2,375,000 —<a href="https://www.dinglepartners.com.au/index.cfm?pageCall=property&amp;propertyID=2618525" style="line-height: 1.3em;" target="_blank"> a massive $616,000 above the reserve of $1,759,000</a>. 

The Sunday Herald Sun <a href="https://ow.ly/i/5wuz5/original" target="_blank">uncovered Kamay's $2,375,000 purchase</a>.

<img alt="HS_cover_SUN.jpg" src="https://static.ow.ly/photos/original/5wuz5.jpg" title="HS_cover_SUN.jpg">

Source: Ow.ly

The three bedroom apartment was marketed for Alisa and Lysandra, the former SA police officers, by the Melbourne CBD agents, Anton Wongtrakun and Rochelle Wilson from Dingle Partners.

Apartment 3 at 47 O'Grady Street (feature picture above) was resold mid-2014.

Investors paid $2,375,000 to buy after the televised initial purchase did not proceed to settlement.

The replacement buyers had the apartment advertised for rent at $2,500 a week through Dingle Partners.
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Seven years jail for The Block Albert Park-buying ABS insider trader Lukas Kamay

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Homeowners trying to sell their homes on their own — for-sale-by-owners (FSBOs) — are courted by emerging disruptive websites.
Most of them want to save money on real estate commissions, rather than because they feel they don’t need a professional to sell their home.
Recent data from a National Association of Realtors survey in the United States shows that less than 10 percent of FSBOs actually sell.
The Inman site listed some of the top reasons why FSBOs fail in real estate.'
1. Owners do not know how to screen potential buyers and fail in the closing process.
2. Owners fail to solve buyer’s queries.
3. Owners don’t understand the concept of ‘golden time’, as according to this concept, homeowners get the most money for their homes shortly after of putting the property on the market. 
4. Owners fail to understand the contract procedures.
5. FSBOs don’t know how to handle the home building inspection findings.
6. FSBOs incorrectly price their homes too high.
7. FSBO homes lack exposure.
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Property 101: Why for sale by property owners fail

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s trade deficit widened from $3.16 billion in January to $3.41 billion in February. It was the 23rd consecutive monthly deficit. The rolling 12-month deficit stood at a record high $44.53 billion in the year to February.
Exports to US: In the year to January, Australia exported $13.57 billion of goods to the US – just shy of the record high $13.69 billion in the year to October 2015. But the share of annual exports going to the US lifted from 5.44 per cent to a fresh 7-year high of 5.53 per cent.
Consumer confidence: The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.1 points (1 per cent) to 113.4 in the week to April 4. Confidence is still 3.4 per cent higher over the year and above the average index value of 112 since 2014.
New vehicle sales: There were 104,512 in March, down 0.5 per cent over the year. SUVs accounted for a record 36.2 per cent of all vehicle sales in the 12 months to March.
The trade data has the potential to affect the Aussie dollar so may be important for exporters. The data on car sales provide insights into consumer and business spending Stocks affected include Super Retail Group, AP Eagers, Automotive Holdings, ARB Corporation and Schaffer Corp. The consumer confidence figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending.
What does it all mean?
The latest trade data was decidedly weak. Not only have the trade accounts been in deficit for almost two consecutive years, but the 12-month rolling annual deficit came in at $44.5 billion – the largest deficit in monthly records going back 45 years. However the trade data doesn’t have the impact on the currency that it once did. Given that the currency fell less than a fifth of a cent it is pretty clear that there appears little concern by foreign investors about the red ink. Over the medium term it is likely that trade deficits will remain the norm.
Interestingly consumption good imports rose by over 3 per cent and are up almost 10 per cent on a year ago. At face value this may be an early sign that consumer activity is lifting, and as a result more goods are being imported. 
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It’s clear that a lower currency will be required to continue to support the rebalancing across the economy - particularly in light of providing a further boost to Australia’s rural and services exports. The other interesting shift is the strength in exports to the US. In the past year Australia exported $13.57 billion of goods to the US – just shy of the record high of $13.69 billion in the year to October 2015. In addition the share of annual exports to the US is now at a 7-year high. While China will continue to remain our dominant trading partner the lift in activity with other nations like the US and India will help to alleviate some of the weakness.
The car industry has certainly been a key beneficiary of improved household budgets and low interest rates. Over the year to March, a total of 1,163,143 new vehicles were sold - just shy of the record 1,163,684 sold in the year to February. And March vehicle sales were affected by the early timing of Easter.
Of note, sports utility vehicles (or four-wheel drive vehicles) remain the ‘new black’. While sales of ‘ordinary’ passenger cars fell by over 9 per cent in March compared with a year ago, SUVs lifted by 8.3 per cent over the year. In fact 421,625 SUVs were sold over the past year – a record high. One in three new vehicles sold in Australia is a SUV. And almost 46 per cent of combined SUV and passenger cars sold are SUVs.
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What do the figures show?
International trade:
Australia’s trade deficit widened from $3.16 billion in January to $3.41 billion in February. It was the 23rd consecutive monthly deficit. The rolling 12-month deficit stood at a record high $44.53 billion in the year to February.
In February, exports of goods and services fell by 1.2 per cent (goods down by 1.3 per cent) while imports of goods and services fell by 0.2 per cent (goods up by 0.2 per cent). Exports are down 8.5 per cent on a year ago, while imports are down by 2.0 per cent.
Rural exports fell by 5.5 per cent after sliding by 1.8 per cent in January. Non-rural exports rose by 1.6 per cent (but gold fell 20.4 per cent) after rising by 2.2 per cent in January.
Within imports, consumer imports rose by 3.4 per cent with capital goods imports up by 0.4 per cent while intermediate goods imports fell by 3.1 per cent.
Consumption goods imports are up 9.5 per cent on a year ago while capital goods imports are down by 9 percent and intermediate goods imports are down by 12.2 per cent.
Australia's annual exports to China stood at a 31-month low of $79.0 billion in the year to February. Annual exports were down 8.4 per cent on a year ago. Exports to China accounted for 32.2 per cent of Australia's total exports.
Australia's annual imports from China rose from $61.88 billion to a record high of $62.01 billion in the year to February, up 14.8 per cent on a year ago. Imports from China accounted for 23.2 per cent of Australia's total imports in February.
Australia's rolling annual trade surplus with China hit a 5-year low of $17.01 billion in February, well down from the record high of $51.16 billion set in April 2014.
Australia annual exports to the US lifted from $13.54 billion to $13.57 billion in the year to February and just down from a record high of $13.69 billion in the year to October 2015. But the share of annual exports going to the US lifted from 5.44 per cent to a fresh 7-year high of 5.53 per cent.
Australia’s annual exports to India eased further from the two-year high of $10.45 billion set in the year to April 5 2016. 
<a href="/images/2016/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-06%20at%209.55.41%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-06%20at%209.55.41%20AM.png" alt="">
Consumer confidence
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.1 points (1 per cent) to 113.4 in the week to April 4. Confidence is still 3.4 per cent higher over the year and above the average index value of 112 since 2014.
Two of the five components of the index fell in the latest week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +6 to +9;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was unchanged at +28;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from -3 to -4;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +12 to +3;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +30 points to +31 points.
New vehicle sales
According to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), Australian new motor vehicle sales totalled 104,512 in March, down 0.5 per cent over the year. In the year to March, 1,163,142 new vehicles were sold, just shy of the record 1,163,684 sold in the year to February.
Passenger vehicles in March were down 9.4 per cent on a year earlier while sales of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) were up by 8.3 per cent and other vehicles were up by 4.9 per cent.
In the year to March, SUVs represented 45.5 per cent of combined passenger car and SUV sales. SUVs accounted for a record 36.2 per cent of all vehicle sales in the 12 months to March.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The monthly International Trade in Goods and Services release from the Bureau of Statistics provides estimates on exports and imports of physical goods (such as coal, beef and computers) and services (such as travel receipts). The balance of goods and services (BOGS) is a narrower description of Australia’s external position than the current account estimates. The import data is a useful gauge of consumer and business spending while exports reflect global demand as well as domestic influences such as drought.
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries releases estimates of car sales on the third business day of the month. The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
China dominates Australia’s trade relationships but the lift in trade with the US and India is encouraging.
At present there is no rush to move rates in any direction. And while the Reserve Bank policymakers may fret about the stronger Aussie dollar, CommSec believes interest rates will remain unchanged over 2016. Any need to cut rates would be as a result of a downturn in the global economy rather than due to domestic factors.
The Reserve Bank knows that the Aussie dollar is a two-edged sword. Consumers love a stronger currency as it means cheaper overseas travel and imported goods. But a stronger Aussie makes it more difficult for businesses, especially exporters and those in regional and rural regions.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Record annual trade deficit, exports to the US lifts: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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GUEST OBSERVER
A decade or so ago a large Australian fund manager ran a campaign urging Australians to pay more attention to their superannuation (pension) savings. 
This initially struck me as good advice – after the family home for most of us it will end up being our biggest pot of savings so it makes sense to keep a close eye on it. And surely the closer we look at it the better the outcome? But over the years I have come to the view that we need to be careful here. 
In fact the avalanche of information around investing if not properly managed may be making us worse, not better, investors: more fearful, more jittery and more focussed on the short term than ever. I have looked at this theme before and the more I look into it the more convinced I have become that investors need to try and turn down the noise around investing. 
The permanent worry list 
The technology revolution has made it easier and easier to track our investments. And with this has come easier and easier access to information and views around the outlook for investment markets. Some of this is balanced, but a lot of it is not. 
For the last few years it seems there has been a constant worry list with a range of things about to drag us down into the next financial crisis: budget deficits, debt, money printing, the Euro, Greece (every six months!), hyperinflation, deflation, taxes, welfare spending, banks, retiring baby boomers, the government, peak oil, low oil, pollution, global warming, the Middle East, terrorism, Russia, a pandemic, China, the South China Sea, emerging markets and of course the current fascination being the Fed (will she or won't she?). And of course the perennial worry in Australia relates to the residential property market. 
Big picture macro concerns have always been around. And I find it very hard to believe that things are any worse today than they were 100 years ago (when Europe had entered World War 1, living standards and life expectancy were a fraction of today's and pandemics were a regular phenomenon). 
But the communication revolution means that such concerns are now regularly in our face. I cannot google something without links popping up to new disasters. The fascination with financial news has exploded – with several financial TV channels with 24/7 finance updates interspersed with constant debate about what it all means. And this is now all accessible via apps we can have at our fingertips on smart phones.
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Loss myopia 
In a way this is all fun. But there are several risks. Human nature is naturally cautious because our brains evolved at a time when we had to be on the lookout for physical threats. As a result bad news always attracts more interest and so "bad news sells". Of course, this also applies to financial news. 
But it also feeds into a common behavioural trait called "myopic loss aversion." And here lies the threat to our long term financial health. Oddly enough I was reminded of this by a great Wall Street Journal article I saw recently – "Keep Stock-Market Apps Off Your Phone", by Dr Shlomo Benartzi – that I actually found on a stock market app on my phone! It’s long been observed that a loss in financial wealth is felt much more distastefully by investors than the beneficial impact of the same sized gain and in the world of behavioural economists – who study how people behave in relation to economic and finance considerations – this has come to be known as "myopic loss aversion". 
When the value of an investment falls it makes sense that unless something has fundamentally gone wrong investors should be thinking about increasing their allocation to it to take advantage of it now being cheaper and better value and therefore offering better return prospects. 
The reality though is that many are motivated to do the opposite as the distaste for loss combines with another well-known behavioural trait called "recency bias" that causes investors to give more weight to recent events than they should so they project recent news of falls in their investment into the future. 
The information overload we are now seeing is likely to be reinforcing this because it is increasing our exposure to news about our investments. And this constant feedback is likely adding to "myopic loss aversion". (Hopefully this is not getting too technical!) 
The shorter the horizon the worse shares look 
In a family discussion about shares versus bank term deposits a relative once observed to me that there is no point investing in shares as they just go down about as much as they go up. I thought this odd as my experience has been a lot more positive. But then it occurred to me that for many people their perception of what shares do likely comes from daily updates – from the media or increasingly via an app. And this can lead to a very jaundiced experience.
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For example, if you track the daily movements in the Australian All Ordinaries share price index, measured over the last twenty years it has been down almost as much as it has been up with falls 47% of the time and gains 53% of the time. It’s little different for the US S&amp;P 500 share index which has seen falls 46% of the time on a daily basis versus gains 54% of the time. So from day to day it’s pretty much a coin toss with bad news nearly half the time. 
By contrast if you only look at how the share market has gone each month and allow for dividends the historical experience tells us you will only get bad news (ie a loss) 35% of the time in Australia and the US. Looking only on a calendar year basis, data back to 1900 indicates that the probability of bad news in the form of a loss slides further to just 19% for Australian shares and 27% for US shares. And if you can stretch it out to once a decade, again since 1900, positive returns have been seen 100% of the time for Australian shares and 82% of the time for US shares. See the next chart.  
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The point is that the less frequently you look the less you will be disappointed and so the lower the chance that a bout of "myopic loss aversion" will be triggered which causes you to adopt an investment strategy which is too cautious to meet your goals or leads you to sell at precisely the wrong time. 
But is there any evidence backing this up? Yes there is. As the Wall Street Journal article sited above noted, a 1997 study by US behavioural economists Richard Thaler, Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman and Alan Schwartz showed that providing investors in an experiment "with frequent feedback about their [investment] outcome is likely to encourage their worst tendencies...More is not always better. 
The subjects with the most data did the worst in terms of money earned." Basically what's happening here is that investors tend to go for the safer lower returning investment options when more frequent feedback on their investment performance is provided. 
Of course, the greater access to financial information we are now seeing in the media and via mobile devices is having the effect of encouraging us to look at our investments more frequently not less – via daily and even more frequent updates. And around this is an avalanche of news and other information that is often out of context, often irrelevant and often in the bad news category. 
This has the effect of exposing us to more frequent news of loss from our investments and reinforcing that news. Which in turn risks encouraging bad investment decisions. In particular a focus away from investments like shares that can grow wealth over time towards assets that may be safe in the short term but will lead to much lower wealth levels over the long term. 
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What can investors do to avoid this? 
The key I think is to find ways to turn down the volume on financial news because if you are exposed to it less frequently you are less likely to make decisions that are contrary to your long term investment goals. Try to avoid looking at market updates so regularly and even consider removing related apps from your smart phones, tablets and watches. Or at the very least find a way to filter such news in a way that it doesn't distort your investment decisions. 
The traditional approach of adopting a long term investment strategy and sticking to it is arguably now more important than ever. Yes we are now in an environment of more constrained and volatile investment returns which has increased the importance of active asset allocation – but this is best left to experts who can put the time in to filter the noise from fundamental signals and avoid allowing “myopic loss aversion” from getting control.
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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The perils for investors of too much information in the app age: Shane Oliver

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To improve housing affordability the Property Council of Australia has suggested reform covering planning systems, infrastructure provision, and reforms to state and federal taxation arrangements in its submission to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics.
#1 Zone more land for housing 
"Our capital cities need more inner city density, middle ring renewal, as well as new land releases. 
"Reforms should provide capacity within city strategies and local statutory plans to accommodate a growing population. Ensure clear citywide and local housing targets are in place, reported on and met. 
"Support planning strategies to place homes nearer to the opportunities and services within the community. Clearly acknowledge the importance of retirement living facilities, and facilitate their development." 
#2 Simpler planning, faster processes
"New developments are hampered by complex building rules and slow assessment processes that just force up base prices. 
"The cost of compliance with multiple layers of planning development legislation and regulation is now a significant component of the cost of housing. 
"These include, but are not limited to the Building Code of Australia, various state planning instruments, local council planning requirements, specific design guidelines for apartments and other targeted instruments. 
"In some instances the requirements of a single measure in one of these instruments can add $10,000 per dwelling in additional costs."
#3 Tax the production of new housing less 
"The production of housing is a highly taxed activity. Stamp duties, land taxes, GST and large development levies can make up as much as 26% of the total cost of a finished house, and up to 21% of the total cost of a finished apartment. To make housing more affordable we need to tax the production of housing less. 
"Property in Australia is taxed right throughout the supply chain, from land acquisition, to building, to market transactions, all of which are passed through to the end consumer. 
"Treasury’s own analysis highlights how damaging stamp duty is, with a 73 per cent loss of economic livelihood for every dollar taxed. 
"On that basis, we believe it is time for the Commonwealth to lead reform on the abolition of stamp duty, a reform that would act as a catalyst for stronger economic growth and activity. 
"Foreign investment provides valuable capital for new housing development and should not be the subject of punitive charges that act as a tariff on capital flows, as the government is proposing with its excessive fees for foreign investment applications. 
"The Henry Tax Review acknowledged that any changes to the tax treatment of investment properties should only be implemented after other housing supply constraints are resolved. 
"The most commonly discussed alternative to the current arrangements is to quarantine net losses to the investment property – that is, investors are still able to get deductions up to the rental income and carry forward any excess loss against future income (including capital gains). 
"Any wholesale removal of negative gearing or the CGT discount that discriminates against property would significantly harm investment, diminish rental supply and ensure that in the short to medium term, rents and property prices will increase. 
"The key to making homes more affordable is to increase the supply of new housing stock to better meet demand, and any move to restrict the current tax arrangements would be disastrous, particularly for rental supply." 
#4 Link housing and jobs 
"Strategic delivery of new road and rail links will bring more housing closer to jobs, which in turn improves people’s lives, opens up economic opportunities and deepens labour markets for business. 
"Land use planning, including that for housing, should be done in partnership with infrastructure planning and economic development policies. 
"Infrastructure provision has not kept pace with growth, particularly in our larger cities, and the result is long commute times, lack of employment opportunities within a reasonable proximity to housing development, increased pressure on services in certain areas, and a general decline in living standards for a growing proportion of the population."
"The provision of infrastructure that links housing to employment and improves the economic productivity of our cities will bring benefits not only for the economy, but to housing affordability and accessibility for more Australians."
#5 Incentivise reform 
"The Federal Government should consider kick-starting reform to bolster housing affordability by reaching a new competition agreement with the states, with incentive payments for achieving best practice planning reform. 
"Reform should recognise that comprehensive planning reform would deliver significant productivity dividends to the economy. This would in turn boost tax revenues, which can be used to fund reform incentives. 
"Take the form of a written agreement between the commonwealth and the states and territories, whereby the federal government agrees to provide incentive payments on the achievement of specific planning reform objectives and outcomes."
In the submission to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, the Property Council of Australia also said that there is opportunities for reform on matters like unlocking home equity for seniors, community housing strategy, the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS), the National Disability Insurance Scheme and national data supply repository.
 
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Capital city middle ring renewal needed: Property Council

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GUEST OBSERVER
Today’s RBA Minutes are similar in most respects to the Statement following the April meeting. But the wording around the considerations for monetary policy implies to us that the easing bias is stronger.
Mainly because the higher Australian dollar (AUD) will “complicate” the economy’s adjustment to different growth drivers.
It may be that the RBA has decided that the fundamental drivers of the AUD, like global bulk commodity prices, are now more likely to be higher over the rest of the 2016.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.17.23%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.17.23%20PM.png" alt="">
The minutes have a comment that the terms of trade is set to rise modestly because of the pick-up in bulk commodity prices. It means the risks on the AUD may be rebalancing to the upside, and away from the more comfortable (for the economy) levels under USD0.75. A higher AUD complicates lots of things, especially the inflation outlook. Lower inflation outcomes could justify lower cash rate settings than current. Especially if some more downside growth risks, like significant global financial market volatility, become reality.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.21.40%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.21.40%20PM.png" alt="">
The minutes indicate a number of positive developments in the domestic economy. Established house price growth has continued to ease, reducing the risks around the property sector. The strong lift in supply of new apartments has also resulted in an easing of their prices. But demand conditions across the country vary considerably. Surveys of national business conditions have been more favourable recently, with signs of a pick-up in non-mining profits. But non-mining investment intentions remain broadly unchanged even though business credit growth has lifted over the past six months.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.23.15%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.23.15%20PM.png" alt="">
Employment growth in the non-mining sectors has been strong. While the recent jobs data was weak, the RBA said it needed to be compared to the unusual strength of activity through late 2015. The unemployment rate looks to have peaked in mid-2015 and leading indicators of the jobs market are mixed. Wages growth remains subdued despite firm jobs growth. Unit labour costs growth has been negligible for the past four years.
There was no RBA commentary on the AUD that indicated that it was out of line with fundamentals. The minutes list the reasons for the AUD moving higher since late 2015. Namely, higher bulk commodity prices and above-trend GDP growth for 2015 of 3% and easy US monetary policy.
We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate at 2 percent over coming months. The domestic economy is rebalancing towards different growth drivers and employment growth is firm. The major issue is the trend to lower inflation outcomes. The higher AUD complicates the picture. So a very low underlying inflation result, say near 0.3%q/q and 1.7%pa, next Wednesday could support a rate cut.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.25.07%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.25.07%20PM.png" alt="" width="1021" height="460">
 
Michael Workman is senior economist, <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/corporate/research?ei=mv_research" target="_blank">Commonwealth Bank</a>.
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RBA adopts stronger easing bias as higher AUD complicates economic adjustment

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GUEST OBSERVER
In the next couple of weeks you’ll start to see all the signs of the change of season. Like many Sydneysiders, I’m looking forward to the longer hours of sunshine and flowers blossoming.
Inevitably, and unfortunately, we’re about to see an increase in property spruikers declaring “The main selling season is here!” (2012) “The market is poised for a bumper spring!” (2013), “There’ll be a strong surge in the traditional spring selling season!” (2014).
The chart below shows why:
Average ABS House Price Index Return by Season
<div class="enlarge_hint"><a href="/images/2015/08/31/image-20150828-17468-500s53.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="enlarge_hint"> </div>
<div class="enlarge_hint"><img src="/images/2015/08/31/image-20150828-17468-500s53.jpg" alt=""></div>
The thing is, though, it’s just a marketing gimmick.
Yes, the house price index appears to increase a lot more, on average, in Spring. But so does the sales volume. Why would people knowingly jump into the housing market at the seasonal peak?
It couldn’t just be that these property buyers don’t know that this is the annual peak. For our relative size, the number of inquiries, studies and urban policy research should mean Australians are among the most informed in the world when it comes to real estate markets.
In a 2009 research article I explore this phenomenon (available on SSRN) and show that the “Spring bounce” is an artefact of inadequate statistical modelling.
Many house price indices are limited by the availability of data, and rely on median prices to get a sense for what’s going on across the market. However, the change in the observed median sales price can have more to do with the types of properties that are selling from period to period than the actual market movement.
The underlying reality is that nicer properties sell through Spring: typically larger, well-located, ready to sell properties. And, unsurprisingly, these nicer properties tend to sell for more. Why is this the case? In many situations it is because of the education and work calendar - families relocating (resulting in buying and selling houses) will more often than not do so over the summer break. Given property settlement times, this means looking for a new house through spring.
So what advice can we take from this? For those needing to move for the very reason outlined above and braving an upcoming auction, try to avoid FOMO (“fear-of-missing-out”), for another property will come on to the market soon. If you don’t need to buy now, the data would suggest you should wait until summer when many are away on vacation, and pick up a spring-listed property that remains unsold - hopefully for a discount!
Danika Wright is Lecturer in Finance at University of Sydney and author for The Conversation. You can contact her <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danika-wright-121868" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Spring selling season and other gimmicks

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A private valley-feel Wollombi home has been listed for sale.
The <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/183-rocky-creek-road-wollombi/Property-Details-buy-residential-9236258" target="_blank">183 Rocky Creek Road</a> 10 hectare property has been listed for around $900,000.
The rural property was last traded unfinished 11 years ago, when Australian Financial Review Magazine deputy editor Marguerite Winter and AFR foreign editor Derry Hogue bought the 300 square metre residence.
The property was on the market for two years prior to that. 
The couple completed the four-bedroom home with a mixture of stone, slab and hardwood, and main room with large stone fireplace. 
The property has a north-east aspect.
The property is being privately negotiated by Garry Musgrove from Ray White Cessnock.
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