Property Markets

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The most recent bushfires in November 2019 have had devastating impacts across NSW and QLD.
Looking back at the impact on property after previous catastrophic fire events shows some distinct trends:
<ul>
<li>The data shows that median house prices are affected by bush fires in many suburbs and regions, although it can vary significantly from one suburb to the next.</li>
<li>In the long term, house prices increase faster than the region and state median growth in part because new properties are built, improving the quality of stock in the areas.</li>
<li>Bush fire prone areas are often more remote and the properties are fewer and further between, so these factors play more of a part in the fluctuations in price growth, more than the risk of fire. </li>
<li>And, also, because there are few properties per suburb, the property data available is limited.</li>
<li>Property views in bush fire areas decrease initially but increase again as time goes by.</li>
<li>There is an increase in properties being listed for sale, following a bush fire, presumably because sellers want to leave the area. Although, there are often fewer properties listed in these areas anyway, due to lower population.</li>
</ul>
Below are some examples of where bush fires have played a part in median house price growth, using <a href="http://realestate.com.au/" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://realestate.com.au&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575313750071000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHWGVPMI21fYMWCOxoFkks5Ip6rCw">realestate.com.au</a> data.
Black Saturday
Median house price growth in many of the towns affected by the Black Saturday fires has exceeded that of the state or regions growth.
For example, the towns below have nearly all seen price growth increases of over 100%, whereas the regions that these towns sit within have not seen anywhere near the same growth.
This is partly because of the rebuilding that took place and stock will now be newer and better quality than before.
Presumably, fire retardant materials and other preventative measures would have been built into the properties, making them more valuable.
It is also likely that many of these suburbs have become more desirable over time for other reasons (e.g., affordability, large homes on large blocks, etc).
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="267">
Suburb
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="195">
% growth in house prices over 10 years
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="267">
Kilmore
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="195">
66%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="267">
Kilmore East
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="195">
42%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="267">
Murrindindi
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="195">
146%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="267">
Kinglake
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="195">
150%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="267">
Kinglake Central
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="195">
113%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="267">
Kinglake West
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="195">
110%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="267">
Strathewen
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="195">
229%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="267">
St Andrews
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="195">
114%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="330">
SA4 Region
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="125">
% growth in house prices over 10 years
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="330">
Melbourne - North East
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="125">
76%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="330">
Hume
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="125">
56%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Bunbury fire of 2016
In January 2016, a bushfire affected the Harvey and Waroona areas of WA. It affected 10 towns and destroyed 162 properties.
Below, shows the median price growth the year before and the two years after the fire.
You can see that these towns were showing positive price growth until 2016, in contrast to the growth in Bunbury and WA as a whole.
Then prices were affected at a greater level than the rest of the state.
(data was available for eight of the 10 towns affected)
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="146">
 
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
2015
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
2016
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
2017
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
2018
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="146">
Bushfire affected Towns
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
2.95%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
0.46%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
-6.18%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
-6.07%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="146">
Bunbury SA4
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
2.56%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
-2.50%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
-2.56%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
-1.32%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="146">
WA
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
-0.20%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
-4.62%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
-3.16%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="85">
-2.17%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Property views for all of the Bunbury suburbs decreased in February, following the fires in January and although the volumes of properties for sale in these areas is always low, there was an increase in average listed properties after the fires.
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How do bushfires impact property prices: Realestate.com.au's Nerida Conisbee

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EXPERT OBSERVER
SA3 regions are part of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). An SA3 region provides a more granular look at the performance of housing markets given that these areas generally have a population of between 30,000 and 130,000 people and in regional areas they represent the area serviced by regional cities that have a population over 20,000 people.
Of the 148 regional SA3 areas, 62 of them have recorded an increase in dwelling values or no change over the year to April 2019. Four of the five regions with the greatest increase in values over the past year were in Tasmania with Huon-Bruny Island recording the fastest rate of growth (16.7%). Huon-Bruny Island along with North East Tasmania (11.5%) and Devonport (10.3%) were the only regions in which values increased at a double-digit rate over the year.
Regional SA3 areas, annual change and change from peak
Click <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_1.PNG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_1.PNG" alt="Regional SA3 annual change and change from peak_1.PNG" width="528" height="555" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="12da801f-9ee1-4755-b04f-19148b9be58c" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_1.PNG">
 
Despite the headlines of weak capital city housing markets, the regional areas have generally fared much better in terms of value growth. Furthermore, 48 of the 62 regions have recorded increases in values despite values sitting below their previous peak. This points to a number of regions that have seen housing corrections starting to recover. Some examples of areas which have seen values increase over the year despite significant corrections include:
<ul>
<li>West Pilbara (WA) – values have risen 6.6% over the year however, they remain -57.6% below their peak.</li>
<li>Bowen Basin-North (Qld) – values have increased 8.5% over the year but remain -43.6% lower than their peak</li>
<li>Central Highlands (Qld) – values are 1.6% higher over the year but -41.9% lower than the peak</li>
</ul>
 Overall regional areas of Victoria and Tasmania are most prominent on the chart reflecting relatively stronger conditions in the regional areas of these states.
Regional SA3 areas, annual change and change from peak
Click <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_2.PNG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_2.PNG" alt="Regional SA3 annual change and change from peak_2.PNG" width="589" height="619" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="dee27823-0f08-4ac9-8006-f87cd157834c" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_2.PNG">
 
The remaining 86 regional areas of the country have seen dwelling values fall over the past year. The greatest decline in dwelling values over the past year has occurred in the Outback-South region of Queensland where values have fallen -35.0% taking them -48.3% below their peak. This is a fairly sparsely populated region of southern Queensland which is largely agricultural and has been adversely affected by drought conditions.
Regional SA3 areas, annual change and change from peak
Click <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_3.PNG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_3.PNG" alt="Regional SA3 annual change and change from peak_3.PNG" width="552" height="557" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2e5295f7-142a-43aa-80fd-85f1a2c4c0fc" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_3.PNG">
The regions in which values have recorded the largest annual falls are generally remote mining and resource regions or those linked to the agricultural sector.
Of the 86 regions that have recorded a decline in values over the past year, 14 have recorded double-digit value declines. Again, most of these are mining or agricultural linked however, Kiama-Shellharbour (-11.5%) and Newcastle (-10.1%) are two regions that are fairly well populated that have seen large value falls, following a substantial rise in values during the recent growth phase. Wollongong in NSW has recorded the 15th largest decline over the year, having just avoided a double-digit fall (-9.6%).
Regional SA3 areas, annual change and change from peak
Click <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_4.PNG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_4.PNG" alt="Regional SA3 annual change and change from peak_4.PNG" width="512" height="549" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6ada93a6-b508-4314-b4bb-2029cc250744" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_4.PNG">
All of these regions now have values that are lower than their peak however, the largest falls from the market peak have been recorded in:
<ul>
<li>East Pilbara (WA) -69.3%</li>
<li>Kimberley (WA) -49.5%</li>
<li>Outback-South (Qld) -48.3%</li>
<li>Gladstone (Qld) -45.1%</li>
<li>Outback-North (Qld) -44.4%</li>
</ul>
From here it will be interesting to see how these regional markets react post-federal election. With some changes for housing (including the first home buyers deposit scheme and no changes to negative gearing / capital gains tax discounts), as well as APRA now considering changes to serviceability caps along with the prospect of interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank, prospects for regional housing may improve over the coming months. Add to this the potential for the Australian dollar to move lower together with strong commodity prices, and the outlook for regions connected with the mining and commodities sector should continue to improve.
CAMERON KUSHER  is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
 
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Where are the suburbs with the biggest growth and declines: Cameron Kusher

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Adelaide house prices are to increase by 2% in 2018 and then to grow by about 2% in each of the next two years, according to the latest Domain forecasts.
They believe this modest growth will continue as part of the trend of slow but steady growth over the past few years.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Adelaide%20Domain%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain
Domain has also forecast that Adelaide unit prices will fall slightly in 2018 and then grow by about 2% in 2019 and 2020.
"Adelaide’s slow and steady property price growth will continue, driven by slow population growth and slowing employment growth," Domain Economist Trent Wiltshire said.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Adelaide%20Domain%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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Adelaide home prices to grow moderately in 2019-2020: Domain

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GUEST OBSERVER 
The Australian property landscape is nearing a significant turning point – as the Sydney and Melbourne markets start to run out of steam, two other cities are emerging as the next investment destinations of choice. 
Unless you’ve been living under a rock recently, you’ll know that house values in Sydney and Melbourne have skyrocketed. 
The average dwelling price in Sydney has spiked about 16% in the past year, while Melbourne prices have increased by about 14%.
However, the signs are that these markets are close to running out of steam.
This downward trend is expected to continue into 2016 as well, as investors continue to move their attention away from the overheated markets. 
So as these two markets begin to slow, where’s the next destination of choice for property investors?
There are two clear standouts in my view – Brisbane and Perth. Why? Because both of these cities are continuing to evolve into their own.
While I admit that much of the wealth created in Brisbane and Perth over the past decade has been through the resources boom, both cities are currently undergoing significant structural change.
While the resources sector will always provide valuable contributions to these cities, there is a concerted move by each state government to grow other industries, such as professional services, health, tourism and education, among others. 
With this transformation, both cities are developing strong, diversified economies, which will prove resilient in the long term and underpin property prices. 
Currently, both Brisbane and Perth represent great value for money for property investors. 
Housing affordability has improved in both cities in 2015. The average Perth household spends about 21% of their income on mortgage repayments, which is the lowest level since 2004. 
Similarly, Brisbane households spend about 23% of their income on mortgage repayments. 
These are among the most affordable capital cities in Australia, particularly compared to Sydney and Melbourne households, which spend 39% and 32%, respectively, of their income on mortgage repayments.
Given the strong long-term outlook for Brisbane and Perth and relative affordability, it makes sense for property investors to turn to these cities to gain exposure to these underrated markets. I wouldn’t expect significant gains in the next 12 months, but over the medium term I’m confident these two cities will outperform Melbourne and Sydney.
 
Damian Collins is the founder and managing director of Momentum Wealth and can be contacted <a href="https://www.momentumwealth.com.au/damian-collins/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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