Petrol Prices

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Motorists in Sydney and Brisbane probably reckon that they have never seen a bigger weekly change in the petrol price. And they would be right. Nationally, petrol prices jumped by a record 10.9 cents a litre last week. But the price jump was between 17-26 cents a litre in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. The big changes in pump prices would be unsettling for motorists.
Brisbane, Gold Coast and Ipswich were amongst the dearest paces in Australia to buy unleaded fuel in the past week, near $1.65 a litre. Geelong was the cheapest at 137.8 cents a litre.
Petrol prices have now peaked on east coast capital cities – Sydney and Melbourne prices peaked over the weekend and in Brisbane the cycle peaked last Wednesday. Adelaide prices have fallen for nine days. It takes around 10-15 days for petrol prices to fall from the peak to the trough of the discounting cycle. So the message for most east coast capital city motorists is to top up, not fill up. However, Adelaide motorists need to be more vigilant.
Filling up the car with petrol can cost the average motorist $80-90 – the single biggest weekly purchase for most households. While petrol prices are not historically high, they are not historically low either. But peak cycle prices in capital cities near $1.74 a litre may be adding to cautious consumer spending behaviour. Unfortunately there are few signs of relief at the pump. While the wholesale (terminal gate) price has eased 1.2 cents from recent 3-month highs, it is still up by 2.5 cents on a month ago.
Overall, global prices are holding at higher levels. Last week Singapore gasoline prices lifted in Aussie dollar terms to a 6-week high of 70.88 cents a litre. On Friday Brent crude fell by US58 cents or 0.9 per cent to US$63.39 a barrel. And the US Nymex price fell by US81 cents or 1.4 per cent to US$57.77 a barrel. Over the week Brent and Nymex rose by 0.1 per cent. Oil producers are being successful in supporting prices at higher levels by restricting production.
What do the figures show?
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol rose by a record 10.9 cents in the past week to 153.0 cents a litre. The metropolitan price rose by 15.1 cents to 155.6 cents a litre but the regional price rose by just 2.3 cents to 147.7 cents a litre.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (up 20.3 cents to 154.4c/l), Melbourne (up 17.3 cents to 156.2 c/l), Brisbane (up 26.3 cents to 165.6 c/l), Adelaide (down 4.7 cents to 152.1 c/l), Perth (up 2.0 cents to 146.4 c/l), Darwin (down 0.2 cents to 143.1 c/l), Canberra (up 0.2 cents to 147.8 c/l) and Hobart (up 0.1 cent to 156.2 c/l).
The smoothed gross retail margin (2-month rolling average) for unleaded petrol rose from 13.26 cents a litre to 13.97 cents a litre (24-month average: 13.1 cents a litre).
The national average diesel petrol price fell by 0.2 cents to 149.2 cents a litre over the week. The metropolitan price fell by 0.1 cents to 147.9 cents a litre and the regional price fell by 0.2 cents to 150.3 cents a litre.
Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 136.0 cents a litre, down by 1.2 cents over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 134.8 cents a litre, up by 0.4 cents over the past week.
MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for unleaded fuel in capital cities today: Sydney 163.4c; Melbourne 165.3c; Brisbane 162.2c; Adelaide 140.9c; Perth 140.2c; Canberra 147.7c; Darwin 143.2c; Hobart 156.4c.
The key Singapore gasoline price was unchanged last week at US$76. 50 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price rose by 12 cents or 0.1 per cent to $112.70 a barrel or a 6-week high of 70.88 cents a litre.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Tax refunds are up around 30 per cent on a year ago. And interest rates are low. So there is plenty of stimulus on offer. Unfortunately consumer sentiment has weakened in recent months. Rate cuts have spooked many consumers and petrol signboards have been showing $1.74 a litre – two factors serving to induce consumer caution.
It’s not just high petrol prices that are unsettling consumers. It’s the fact that prices can vary so much in eastern and southern capital cities.
Many consumers will be hoping for plenty of deals on offer at upcoming ‘Black Friday’ and ‘Cyber Monday’ sales.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Record weekly lift in national petrol prices: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 1.4 cents last week to 143.8 cents per litre.
The Singapore gasoline benchmark price is holding at 31⁄2-year highs, pointing to higher pump prices in Australia in coming weeks.
The petrol figures have implications for retailers, especially petrol marketing groups.
What does it all mean?
Aussie drivers continue to approach petrol stations with trepidation. And with good reason. Pump prices are above $1.40 across large swathes of the country and likely to stay there.
Global oil prices are on the march. The Singapore price of unleaded petrol is the key petrol benchmark for Australia. Last week the Singapore gasoline price surged to a fresh 31⁄2-year high of US$91.70 a barrel. And Brent crude oil futures, considered the international price benchmark, breached US$80 per barrel last Thursday, its highest level since November 2014.
Oil prices have risen for six consecutive weeks and are anticipated to increase in the short-term due to supply disruptions. The potential for additional US sanctions on Venezuela following yesterday’s disputed presidential election could crimp OPEC output even further. OPEC oil producers have successfully limited market supplies, supporting prices.
Strengthening global economic activity has also been an important factor pushing up oil prices. But elevated prices could eventually reduce appetite for oil, despite record US shale output.
The International Energy Agency last week revised down its global oil demand forecast by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day to average 99.2 million barrels in 2018.
And for good reason. Oil prices have surged by nearly 20% so far this year and around 75% since mid-2017. Soaring petrol and diesel prices are stoking inflationary pressures across the globe at a time when interest rates are rising in countries like the US, UK and Canada.
Developing nations are particularly sensitive to rising oil prices after many countries phased out fuel subsidies when prices were much lower. Therefore, an overall dampening in global oil consumption is likely in the coming months.
Suburban motorists aren’t the only Aussies feeling the petrol and diesel bowser pain at present.
Our farmers are seeing their profits eroded by rising diesel prices. Diesel fuel is necessary for planting, harvesting and shipping crops to market.
In the US, farmers are estimated to spend US$15.3 billion on fuel and oil in 2018, up 8% according to the US Department of Agriculture.
And jet fuel prices have climbed by 15% so far this year according to S&amp;P Global Platts, pushing up airline fuel bills. Fuel costs are second only to labour costs.
What do the figures show?
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 1.4 cents to 143.8 cents a litre in the past week.
The metropolitan petrol price fell by 2.2 cents to 142.0 cents per litre, but the regional price rose by 0.3 cents to 147.5 cents per litre. The gross retail margin fell from 13.82 cents to 12.82 cents.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down by 1.7 cents to 140.2 c/l), Melbourne (down by 1.9 cents to 139.5 c/l), Brisbane (down by 0.8 cents to 143.5 c/l), Adelaide (down by 14.7 cents to 140.7 c/l), Perth (up by 1.8 cents to 146.9 c/l), Darwin (up by 0.1 cents to 151.0 c/l), Canberra (up by 0.1 cents at 148.3 c/l) and Hobart (up by 1.2 cents to 153.3c/l).
The national average Australian price of diesel petrol rose by 2.1 cents to 150.2 cents per litre. The metropolitan price rose by 2.3 cents to 151.1 c/l and the regional average price rose by 2.0 cents to 149.5 c/l.
Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at a 31⁄2-year high of 135.2 cents a litre, up by 2.5 cents over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 138.7 cents a litre, up by 2.7 cents over the past week.
Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$4.50 or 5.2% to US$91.70 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $6.22 or 5.4% to a 31⁄2-year high of $121.96 a barrel or 76.70 cents a litre.
MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 152.1c; Melbourne 151.7c; Brisbane 155.3c; Adelaide 136.8c; Perth 139.0c; Canberra 148.8c; Darwin 151.0c; Hobart 149.6c.
What is the importance of the economic data?
Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Petrol prices have fallen a smidgen over the past two weeks, but remain elevated.
Developments in global oil markets together with a weaker Aussie dollar are supporting domestic petrol prices weighing on household budgets.
Aussie farmers are feeling the pain too. Rising diesel prices are pushing up their input costs. Food could become more expensive if these costs are passed on to the consumer.
And airline travel may become dearer as jet fuel prices surge. Fuel prices are up by 60% over the past year. That summer holiday in Europe or the US could become more expensive.
CommSec expects interest rates to be unchanged for the foreseeable future.
Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.
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Aussie drivers approach petrol stations with trepidation: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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GUEST OBSERVER
Retail petrol: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 0.4 cents per litre to 112.3 cents per litre in the week to March 27. The petrol price was the lowest in the week ahead of Easter for 11 years.
Wholesale petrol: The terminal gate (wholesale) petrol price is only 0.1 cents a litre lower than a week ago but up 8 cents a litre on lows set just over a month ago.
Asian gasoline: In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price lifted by 1.3 cents a litre last week and rose another 0.5 cents a litre on Monday. Prices are up around 9 cents a litre from recent lows.
The petrol figures have implications for retailers, especially petrol marketing groups.
<a href="/images/2016/03/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-29%20at%204.10.54%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-29%20at%204.10.54%20PM.png" alt="">
What does it all mean?
The general assumption is that petrol prices rise ahead of Easter. But in capital cities over the past week, prices trended lower or were at worst flat. And the national average petrol price was the lowest in 11 years.
Certainly prices were lower just over a month ago. But as often happens, prices probably over-shot on the downside. And indeed prices have probably rebounded too much in the past few weeks – especially given plentiful world oil supplies.
As the Reserve Bank Governor pointed out last week, lower oil prices are generally considered stimulatory for economic activity. The fear this time around is that lower oil prices will put pressure on producers and their banks.
But as the RBA Governor pointed out, Aussie banks are well positioned: “In the business space, the banking system has fairly modest direct exposure to the falls in oil and other commodity prices, with lending to businesses involved in mining and energy accounting for only around 2 percent of banks' total lending.”
What do the figures show?
Petrol prices
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 0.4 cents per litre to 112.3 cents per litre in the week to March 27. Over the past month, prices have lifted 5.8 cents from 7-year lows. The metropolitan petrol price fell by 0.3 cents to 112.3 cents per litre while the regional price fell by 0.6 cents to 112.4 cents per litre.
The national average Australian price of diesel petrol held steady at 111.4 cents per litre in the week to March 27. Last week the metropolitan price fell by 0.1 cents to 111.3 c/l, while the regional average price was unchanged at 112.0 c/l.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (up by 4.9 cents to 114.7 c/l), Melbourne (down 5.2 cents to 107.3 c/l), Brisbane (down 4.6 cents to 113.2 c/l), Adelaide (up 6.9 cents to 116.4 c/l), Perth (up 0.8 cents to 111.8 c/l), Darwin (down by 0.4 cents to 115.6 c/l), Canberra (up 0.1 cents to 117.2 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.1 cents to 117.4 c/l).
Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price  stands at 103.55 cents per litre, down 0.1 cents per litre on a week ago but still almost 8 cents a litre higher than the lows set a month ago. The terminal gate diesel price  stands today at 97.90 cents a litre, up 0.5 cent a litre over the week.
Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US45c or 0.8 per cent to US$54.45 a barrel. The price rose a further US75c or 1.4 per cent to US$55.20 a barrel on Monday. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $2.04 a barrel (2.9 per cent) to $72.68 a barrel or 45.71 cents a litre. The price rose further to 46.23 cents per litre on Monday.
MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 107.9c; Melbourne 104.9c; Brisbane 111.5c; Adelaide 110.0c; Perth 101.3c; Canberra 113.1c; Darwin 115.0c; Hobart 118.1c.
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<img src="/images/2016/03/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-29%20at%204.09.38%20PM.png" alt="">
What is the importance of the economic data?
Weekly figures on petrol prices  are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The low price of petrol represents a de facto rate cut for consumers. So as long as petrol signboards show $1.00- $1.20 a litre in major capital cities, spending growth will be supported. The world is well supplied with oil. But producers have signalled that they are more comfortable with prices of US$30-40 a barrel, rather than US$20 or even $50 a barrel. So there will be pressure on producers to try and reach some production agreement to stabilise prices
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<img src="/images/2016/03/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-29%20at%204.08.37%20PM.png" alt="" width="690" height="246">
 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Lowest Easter petrol prices in 11 years offer defacto rate cut: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
Petrol: Last week the key Singapore gasoline price recorded the biggest percentage increase in a year, up by US$6.60 or 13.6 percent to US$55.20 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $7.73 a barrel or 11.7 percent to $73.72 a barrel.
MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 94.9c; Melbourne 114.40c; Brisbane 120.6c; Adelaide 97.7c; Perth 103.7c; Canberra 112.7c; Darwin 116.2c; Hobart 118.0c.
Credit cards: The average credit card balance fell by $77.10 (2.4 percent) to $3,114.30 in January. In smoothed terms (12 month average) the average balance was down by 1.5 percent – the biggest fall in 21 months.
Credit limits: Usage of credit card limits eased from 35.2 percent to 34.3 percent in January - a 14-year low.
ATM use: Withdrawals at automated teller machines in January were down by 7.2 percent on a year ago in smoothed terms, the biggest decline on record.
The petrol figures have implications for retailers, especially petrol marketing groups. The credit card figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending.
<a href="/images/2016/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-15%20at%2010.18.00%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-15%20at%2010.18.00%20AM.png" alt="">
What does it all mean?
Global oil prices have surged in the past week. In fact the almost 14 percent lift in the Singapore unleaded price was the strongest gain in over a year. Even the heavy lifting Australian dollar has not managed to buffer the price gains. In Australian dollar terms prices the Singapore unleaded price lifted by almost 12 percent. Importantly while petrol prices will lift from recent seven year lows they remains relatively depressed, providing households and businesses with additional spending power.
In addition the discounting cycle continues to pay dividends for motorists – provided you are filling up at the cheap end of the cycle. More capital cities are experiencing petrol below $1 a litre. But the key is to keep an eye on the discounting cycle. In Sydney and Adelaide, prices are holding between 94-98c; Perth 104c; while in Melbourne and Brisbane prices are around $1.15-$1.20 a litre. Clearly filling up at the cheaper days of the cycle can yield motorists substantial savings.
Consumers continue to be savvy about plastic card use. The average credit balance has gone backwards over the past year with the smoothed measure at a near two-year low. And given that the inflation rate is above 2 per cent, it would suggest that credit card debt is falling even further in real terms. Cardholders are frequently paying off credit card debt by the due date and using cards to maximise loyalty points. In addition usage of credit card limits is holding at a 14-year low.
Interestingly, average ATM withdrawals fell by 7.2 percent in the year to January – the biggest fall on record. And the average value of a debit card transaction was just $53.40 in smoothed terms – a record 12-year low. No doubt the changes technology with PayPass and Paywave are resulting in fewer Aussies carrying physical cash and also using their cards for smaller purchases.
The Reserve Bank will continue to remain on the interest rate sidelines – comfortable about the way the Australian economy is evolving. Importantly, activity levels are lifting, driven by stronger home construction. Policymakers are likely to focus on the labour market and Australian dollar in coming months.
What do the figures show?
Petrol prices
Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price  stands at 101.9 cents per litre, up 3.1 cents per litre on a week ago. The terminal gate diesel price  stands at 96.5 cents a litre, up 2.2 cents over the week. (Data on pump or retail prices is released on Tuesday).
Last week the key Singapore gasoline price  rose by US$6.60 or 13.6 per cent to US$55.20 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $7.73 a barrel or 11.7 per cent to $73.72 a barrel or 46.36 cents a litre.
MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 94.9c; Melbourne 114.40c; Brisbane 120.6c; Adelaide 97.7c; Perth 103.7c; Canberra 112.7c; Darwin 116.2c; Hobart 118.0c.
Credit card lending:
The average credit card balance  fell by $77.10 (2.4 percent) to $3,114.30 in January. Compared with a year ago, the average credit card balance was down 1.7 percent. In smoothed terms (12 month average) the average balance was down by 1.5 percent – the biggest fall in 21 months.
Of credit cards attracting interest charges , the average outstanding balance rose by $11.10 in January to $1,981.50. The average balance accruing interest is down by 4.6 per cent on a year ago. In smoothed terms (12 month average) the average balance was down by 5.7 percent on a year ago – the biggest decline in 16 months.
The average credit card limit  rose by $11.80 to $9,075.90 in January. The average credit card limit in January was down 0.1 percent on a year ago. Usage of credit card limits eased from 35.2 percent to 34.3 percent in
January - a 14-year low.
On average, there were 11.3 transactions made per each credit card account  in January, up from 11.1 a year ago. The average value of purchases was $119.4 in January. The rolling annual average of purchases eased from $129.4 to $128.9 in January - an 11-year low.
The number of cash advances  recorded a 2.4 per cent annual fall in smoothed (12-month average) terms in December.
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<img src="/images/2016/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-15%20at%2010.16.46%20AM.png" alt="">
Debit card lending &amp; ATMs
The number of debit card accounts rose by 3.2 percent in the year to January to 41.66 million.
The number of purchases and cash-out transactions  made with debit cards in January was up by 13.7 percent on a year ago. The annual growth rate has averaged 12.1 per cent over the past two years.
On average there were 8.8 transactions made per debit card  in January, up from 8.1 a year ago. The average value of a transaction was $52.02 with the rolling annual average at $53.40 – a record (12-year) low.
Transactions at automated teller machines  in January were down by 8.4 percent on a year ago. In smoothed terms, ATM transactions were 7.2 percent down on a year ago, the biggest decline on record.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Reserve Bank releases data on credit and debit card  transactions each month. The credit card figures are useful in highlighting consumer borrowing and spending trends.
Weekly figures on petrol prices  are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank will be comforted by the more stable conditions in financial markets and the broader economy. The Federal Reserve meeting will garner the most interest this week, particularly in terms of the impact on the Australian dollar. CommSec expects no change to interest rate settings for the foreseeable future.
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<img src="/images/2016/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-15%20at%2010.15.02%20AM.png" alt="">
 Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Usage of credit card limits at 14-year low: Savanth Sebastian

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GUEST OBSERVER
Filling up the car with petrol is the single biggest outlay by families each week. And while some may say ‘food’ is the biggest outlay, that category encompasses a raft of items in the shopping trolley. So petrol prices are super-important for household budgets. And despite what sharemarket investors may think, the lower crude oil price is a positive development, meaning more spending power for consumers. In essence it acts like a de facto rate cut.
The Singapore gasoline price plunged in Australian dollar terms last week and now is not far off the best (lowest) levels recorded in the past seven years. So the outlook remains positive for motorists. Much will now depend on margins – the gross wholesale margin and gross retail margin – to determine how motorists end up faring at the petrol pump.
There hasn’t been much change in the gross wholesale margin (gap between the Australian terminal gate price and Singapore gasoline price) over recent years. But the gross retail margin (gap between the pump price and terminal gate price) has trended higher over time.
The wholesale petrol price is near 105 cents a litre. Assuming ‘normal’ margins, the national pump price should ease to 116 cents a litre. Add in the 3 cent fall in the Singapore gasoline price and motorists should see pump prices fall up to 7 cents a litre over the next 7-10 days.
Driven by competitive pressures, petrol prices in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide have scope to fall to levels of 100-105 cents a litre in the current discounting cycle.
What do the figures show?
<a href="/images/2016/01/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-19%20at%209.23.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-19%20at%209.23.55%20AM.png" alt="">
Petrol prices
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 1.9 cents per litre to 120.00 cents per litre in the week to January 17. The metropolitan petrol price fell by 2.4 cents to 118.9 cents per litre while the regional price fell by 1.0 cents to 122.2 cents per litre.
The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell by 0.8 cents to 121.4 cents per litre in the week to January 17. Last week the metropolitan price fell by 0.6 cents to 120.7 c/l, while the regional average price fell by 1.0 cents to 122.0 c/l.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down by 3.7 cents to 119.2 c/l), Melbourne (down 6.1 cents to 113.6 c/l), Brisbane (up 5.9 cents to 127.3 c/l), Adelaide (down 9.9 cents to 109.6 c/l), Perth (up 0.2 cents to 120.2 c/l), Darwin (down by 0.5 cents to 125.2 c/l), Canberra (down 0.1 cents to 126.1 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.6 cents to 130.0 c/l).
Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 104.7 cents per litre, down 2.2 cents per litre on a week ago. The terminal gate diesel price stands at fresh 11-year lows of 91.5 cents a litre, down 3.3 cents over the week.
The difference between the weekly average retail unleaded petrol price and the weekly average wholesale terminal gate price was 13.8 cents a litre last week, down from 15.6 cents but still above longer-term averages of around 10-11 cents a litre.
Last week the key Singapore gasoline price fell by US$4.10 or 7.7 per cent to US$48.95 a barrel. In Australian dollar, in local terms the Singapore gasoline price fell by $4.68 a barrel or 6.2 per cent to $70.45 a barrel or 44.31 cents a litre. The figure of 44.31c a litre was the lowest in a year and second lowest result in seven years.
What is the importance of the economic data?
Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The lower crude oil price is positive for consumers and businesses, lifting spending power. At the same time, the lower petrol price will keep downward pressure on the headline inflation rate.
As we noted last week, in the December quarter the petrol price fell by around 6.3 percent, taking off around 0.2 percentage points from the quarterly Consumer Price index. The headline inflation rate was probably little changed at a 1.5-1.6 percent annual rate in the December quarter (data due on January 27).
Once OPEC oil producers conclude that the oil price has fallen far enough, investors will pay more attention to the positive effects of low fuel prices for consumers and businesses, and therefore retailers and other consumer focussed businesses.
The average household is around $25 a month better off from the lower petrol price than in July last year.
<a href="/images/2016/01/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-19%20at%209.24.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-19%20at%209.24.53%20AM.png" alt="">
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Households $25 a week better off with lower petrol prices: Craig James

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVATION</div>
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<div class="column">Petrol prices lifted for the second consecutive week and motorists certainly have the right to question why. Global oil prices are continuing to fall, the Aussie dollar has held up well and yet domestic pump prices have lifted in the past fortnight. Even in Aussie dollar terms the Singapore unleaded price has now fallen for seven of the past eight weeks having lost a cumulative total of over AUD$13, and is now holding at a 17-week low – a result that should keep domestic pump prices under downward pressure.</div>
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 The Reserve Bank made mention of the lift in retail petrol margins in the Statement of Monetary Policy last week. CommSec analysis of the raw margin between the retail price and terminal gate price has risen to 12.4 cents in the past fortnight, well above the 5-year average of 9.3 cents. To some degree when oil prices are falling rapidly margins tend to expand as petrol retailers sell higher priced fuel first in petrol station bunkers before selling the cheaper fuel. The situation will bear further scrutiny in coming weeks.
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The US summer driving season is nearing an end and the lift in gasoline stockpiles is putting downward pressure on global oil prices. In addition the Iran nuclear deal with the West could lead to a lift in sanctions on the former’s oil exports – adding further to global supply and depressing prices. Interestingly had the pressure on global oil prices been earlier in the year motorists could have been paying a $1 a litre for fuel given the stronger Australian dollar. 
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Figures from MotorMouth show that petrol prices have been falling for just over a week in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, although prices in Sydney and Adelaide have been falling a lot sharper than in Melbourne. Meanwhile prices hit the high point (peak) on August 7 in Brisbane and are only just starting to ease. Only Perth operates on a uniform weekly cycle. The bottom line is that prices will continue to slide over the coming week and motorists would be better off waiting a few more days before filling up the family vehicle.
The latest lending statistics show a mild rebound in June, largely driven by the strength in housing finance and in that context it is investor housing in particular that has driven the strength. Overall lending is only just shy of the seven-year highs reached two months ago. However the recent announcements and media commentary on the tighter bank lending standards is likely to start weighing on the sector. While housing activity will continue to be the backbone of the economy over the coming year, it is starting to show signs of cooling – especially when it comes to irrational exuberance.
The main disappointment in the latest lending finance results would be commercial loans. If there is an anticipated pullback in home lending policymakers would be hoping that activity amongst the business sector lifts from here. Commercial loans are up almost 4 per cent on a year ago. Business conditions are healthy, however businesses are still rather tentative about borrowing. The key driver of future lending will be an ongoing improvement in labour market conditions, rise in business hiring intentions and lift in consumer confidence.
<ul>
<li>What do the figures show?</li>
<li>Petrol price:</li>
</ul>
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of petrol rose by 0.8 cents per litre to 138.5 cents per litre in the week to August 9. The metropolitan petrol price rose by 1.2 cents to 137.7 cents per litre and the regional price was unchanged at 140.1 cents per litre.
The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell by 0.5 cents to 133.5 cents per litre in the week to August 9. Last week the metropolitan price fell by 0.6 cents to 131.3 c/l, while the regional average price fell by 0.5 cents to 135.3 c/l.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down 2.1 cents to 136.7 c/l), Melbourne (up 9.0 cents to 142.3 c/l), Brisbane (down 0.6 cents to 135.3 c/l),
Adelaide (down 4.7 cents to 133.8 c/l), Perth (down 1.4 cents to 136.2 c/l), Darwin (down by 0.2 cents to 134.3 c/l), Canberra (down 2.7 cents to 135.9 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.1 cents to 142.7 c/l).
Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at a near 3-month low of 123.8 cents a litre, down 1 cent a litre on a week ago but still up from the 6-year low of 100.4 cents per litre set on January 20.
Last week the key Singapore gasoline price fell by US85c or 1.2 per cent to US$71.95 a barrel – a 17-week low. Singapore gasoline previously hit a near 6-year low (lowest since March 2009) of US$52.20 a barrel on January 13. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price fell by $2.14 a barrel or 2.2 per cent last week to $97.67 a barrel or 61.42 cents a litre.
Lending finance
Total new lending commitments (housing, personal, commercial and lease finance) rose by 0.8 per cent in June to $74.7 billion after a 4.3 per cent fall in May. New loans are up 3.6 per cent over the year.
Housing finance: The seasonally adjusted measure of construction and new purchases rose by 5.5 per cent in June while alterations &amp; additions rose by 9.3 per cent. Home loans are up 9.7 per cent on a year. 
 
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 Commercial finance: The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell by 1 per cent in June. Revolving credit commitments fell by 1.5 per cent while fixed lending 
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<div class="column">commitments fell by 0.8 per cent. Business loans are up 3.9 per cent over the year.</div>
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Personal finance: The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose by 1 per cent in June after falling by 2 per cent in May. Revolving credit commitments fell by 0.9 per cent and fixed lending commitments rose by 2.3 per cent. Personal loans are down 9.9 per cent over the year. Within personal fixed finance commitments, finance for used cars was up 6.4 per cent on a year earlier while loans for new cars were up by 12.8 per cent. Lease finance: Lending rose by 1.6 per cent in June after rising by 0.8 per cent in May. Lease finance fell by 5.0 per cent over the year.
<ul>
<li>What is the importance of the economic data?</li>
</ul>
Lending Finance is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy. Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
<ul style="line-height: 1.3em;">
<li>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</li>
</ul>
While the vagaries of the discounting cycle continues to be the key driver of such vast shifts in pump prices across the nation, motorists can still benefit. The discounting cycle provides the best opportunity to purchase fuel at or below the cost (terminal gate) price – and in turn save a few extra dollars. Between the peak and the trough in the cycle motorists could save themselves as much as 20 cents a litre or around $10-$15 to fill up a tank with fuel. In major capital cities the best time to fill up the family vehicle may be later in the week.
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 CommSec expects interest rates to remain on hold over the rest of 2015. 
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<div class="column">Savanth Sebastian is an economist for CommSec. You can follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/commsec" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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