Migration

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Australia’s national population is estimated to have increased by 109,057 persons over the quarter to be up 395,101 persons or 1.6% over the 12 months to September 2018 according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) demographic arrivals and departures data release.
Analysing the results, CoreLogic noted that while nationally the drivers of population growth are net overseas migration and natural increase (births minus deaths), between the states net interstate migration is an important component of population growth.
While nationally the drivers of population growth are net overseas migration and natural increase (births minus deaths), between the states net interstate migration is an important component of population growth.
NSW 
Net interstate migration to NSW saw the state lose 22,113 residents over the year to September 2018, its largest net loss of residents since March 2008. As the chart shows, the biggest sources of arrivals to NSW over the year were Qld (36,730), Vic (25,876) and ACT (11,728). Arrivals from Vic were the highest they’ve been since June 1993 while arrivals from ACT were the greatest they’ve been since December 1997.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/28/NSW%20.jpg" alt="">
Vic 
Annual net interstate migration was recorded at 13,985 persons over the year to September 2018, the lowest it has been since December 2015. The largest source of migration to Vic was NSW (32,688) followed by Qld (22,433) and WA (12,187). Arrivals from Qld were the highest on record while arrivals from Tas (4,195) were the highest since March 2004 and arrivals from ACT (4,076) were also the highest on record.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/28/VIC%20.jpg" alt="">
Qld 
Net interstate migration over the year to September 2018 was recorded at 24,316 persons, which although it remains high was slightly lower than the previous quarter. With 52,409 arrivals, NSW accounted for almost 50% (49.45%) of interstate arrivals to Qld over the year. Arrivals from NSW were the highest they’ve been since December 2005. The 24,680 arrivals from Vic were the greatest since June 2004.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/28/QLD%20.jpg" alt="">
WA 
The state has seen a large net loss of residents due to residents leaving for other states over the year (10,304) however; the outflow has slowed to its smallest levels since June 2016. Although WA is shedding many residents, arrivals from NSW (7,970) were the greatest they’ve been since September 2014, arrivals from Vic (7,364) were the greatest they've been since September 2015 and arrivals from NT were the greatest they’ve been since December 2015.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/28/WA%20.jpg" alt="">
Tas 
Over the year to September 2018, net interstate migration of 2,370 persons was recorded which was slightly lower than the previous quarter however, net interstate migration remains at the highest levels since June 2004. NSW (3,560), Vic (4,053) and Qld (3,800) were the prime sources of arrivals to Tas. Arrivals from NSW were the highest they’ve been since December 2004, arrivals from Vic were the largest since September 2004 and arrivals from Qld were the largest since March 2008.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/28/TAS%20.jpg" alt="">
NT 
The state saw a loss of 3,920 residents due to net interstate migration over the year to September 2018, which was the largest outflow of residents on record. Although NT is losing people to other states, the largest sources of arrivals to NT are Qld (3,848), Vic (2,775) and NSW (2,731). As the accompanying chart shows the number of arrivals to NT from other states is typically trending lower.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/28/NT%20.jpg" alt="">
ACT 
Net interstate migration was recorded at 274 persons over the past year, the smallest gain from net interstate migration since March 2016. With 12,604 arrivals to the ACT, NSW accounted for 56.7% of all arrivals over the past year. The only two other significant states for arrivals were Vic (3,358) and Qld (3,290). While arrivals to ACT were generally trending lower, arrivals from NSW were the greatest on record over the past year.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/28/ACT%20.jpg" alt="">
Over the year to September 2018, there were 394,193 interstate arrivals across the nation. Australian’s are becoming more willing to move interstate with the 394,193 arrivals over the past year the greatest number since September 2003.
While the economies of NSW and Vic remain much stronger than elsewhere, the cost of housing in these states is also much higher than elsewhere. With greater flexibility around working remotely nowadays, it’s no surprise that the trend towards more interstate movements increasing - we would expect that this trend is set to continue over the coming years.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/28/NATIONAL%20.png" alt="">
TIM LAWLESS heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Trend towards interstate movements increasing: Tim Lawless

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Tourist arrivals fell by 0.1 per cent in November with Aussie tourist departures down by 0.4 per cent.
Tourists from China hit record highs over the year but annual growth of Chinese inflows is the slowest in 8½ years. 
Winners:
The ACT and Tasmania are attracting a record share of the visitors to Australia.
What does it all mean?
 The number of Chinese tourists is at fresh record highs. But tourist numbers are not growing like they used to – annual growth is the slowest in 8½ years. The slowdown of the Chinese economy and on-going US-China trade dispute is having real consequences for our retail and hospitality sectors.
 It is the spin-off from higher migration – a record proportion of the people coming to our shores are here to see family and friends. This trend has consequences for the accommodation, hospitality and rental car industries.
 The shares are still small – but the ACT and Tasmania are attracting a record share of visitors to Australia. The bad news for the Northern Territory is that its share of visitors is at record lows.
 There is solid growth of Aussies deciding to go overseas for an extended period. But there are also plenty of people from other countries wanting to migrate to Australia or stay for an extended period. In a net sense, over the past year almost 290,000 more foreigners decided to call Australia home – the highest level since mid-2014
 The migrants are here to study and/or work, importantly filling skill gaps in our workforce. The extra number of people need to find accommodation, may buy cars and use public transport. So it is always important that businesses and governments are on top of the trends. What do the figures show?
Tourism 
 Tourist arrivals fell 0.1 per cent to 778,200 in November, only the second fall in seven months. Arrivals are up 2.6 per cent over the year.
 A record 30 per cent of visitors to Australia are here to see friends and relatives. The share of visitors arriving for a holiday is at 3-year lows.
 Aussie tourist departures rose by 2.4 per cent in November but are still up 5.2 per cent over the year.
 Over the 12 months to November, arrivals are up 4.9 per cent and departures up by 4.0 per cent.
 In November, tourists from Greater China (China and Hong Kong) totalled 143,700 (mainland China 117,100; Hong Kong 26,600), ahead of New Zealand (116,500).
 China is the largest source of tourists to Australia. Over the past year a record 1,438,500 tourists came to Australia from China, up by 4.7 per cent.
 Tourists from New Zealand totalled 1,381,600 visitors over the past year, up by 1.6 per cent.
 A record 354,500 Indian tourists travelled to Australia over the year to November, up by 18.4 per cent.
 In November alone, there were record tourist inflows from Belgium, India and Canada.
 In November, a record number of Aussies travelled to New Zealand, Italy, Indonesia and Sri Lanka.
 Migration
 In November there were 55,490 permanent and long-term arrivals in Australia. The annual number of permanent and long-term overseas arrivals rose to a record high 828.980 in November, up by 6.6 per cent over the year.
 In November there were 42,170 permanent and long-term departures in Australia. The annual number of permanent and long-term overseas arrivals fell from 541,220 to 540,760 in November but were up by 6.3 per cent over the year.
 Net permanent and long-term arrivals stood at 288,220 in the year to November – a 4½-year high.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
 Annual growth of Chinese tourists is now the slowest in 8½ years. If the slowdown continues, it will have implications for airlines, retailers and tourism-dependent businesses.
 The net number of migrants is growing at a 7 per cent annual pace – the fastest growth in 16 months. The growing number of migrants provides all-important momentum to the economy and boosts the outlook for housing and retail sectors.
 Why are the ACT and Tasmanian economies doing so well? One reason is home construction, but it appears tourism is also playing a big role. The two economies are attracting a record share of the visitors to the country.
 CommSec expects the official cash rate to remain steady until later in 2019. 
Craig James is the Chief Economist of CommSec
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Chinese tourism growth is the slowest in eight years: Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia’s population is set to reach 25 million in the coming weeks. This is much earlier than expected. Eighteen years ago, projections estimated Australia’s population wouldn’t get to 25 million until 2041.
Western Australian Liberal Senator Dean Smith last week proposed a moratorium on immigration to give Australia some time to “breathe” and take stock. Claiming concerns over planning and infrastructure failing to meet population needs, Smith signalled Australia was unprepared, having relied on inaccurate population projections.
Immigration is often targeted when population levels seem out of control. But will a moratorium give Australia the supposed breathing space it needs?
Migration impacts
Concerns about immigration and a perceived population crisis have crossed over the spectrum of Australian politics. One Nation’s Pauline Hanson has called for a plebiscite on immigration, while Labor leader Bill Shorten has raised concerns about the number of temporary migrants in Australia.
Immigration Minister Peter Dutton has said a cut to immigration numbers would have economic benefits, contradicting Treasurer Scott Morrison. And Smith’s idea to halt immigration to allow the nation’s infrastructure time to catch up with population demand is shared by prominent public figures, including Bob Carr and Dick Smith.
Australia’s population is ageing, which has potential adverse consequences for the future as proportionally more people exit the workforce, increasing reliance on a shrinking income taxpayer base. Immigration has the potential to offset these consequences of population ageing by contributing to the workforce and to government funds for essential services. Migrants also contribute to Australia’s future population by having children.
The latest available research suggests immigration levels at “about 160,000 and 210,000 seem to have the ‘best’ impact by 2050 on ageing of the population and the rate of growth of GDP per capita”.
Current ABS projections provide an opportunity to examine what Australia’s demographic composition could look like if net overseas migration was zero, 200,000 (low), 240,000 (middle) or 280,000 (high) per year.
Based on 2011 census data, and medium-range assumptions for fertility and life expectancy, the 2013 (medium range) projections are tracking well with current estimates. These projections provide an indication of the impact of migration, measured as net overseas migration. Net overseas migration reflects the balance of incoming and outgoing movements and includes both permanent and temporary migration.
The four ABS scenarios show varying population numbers over the medium to long term. The higher the net overseas migration level, the bigger the population over the projected years. Interestingly, though, while zero net overseas migration would result in a reduction in population by the year 2070, the population would still continue to grow in the medium term due to natural increase (births minus deaths).
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Population composition is an important indicator to consider, rather than size alone. Age distribution is essential to understanding the fiscal opportunities and challenges a population faces.
Comparing the four net overseas migration scenarios illustrates the important contribution migration makes to Australia. The so-called dependency burden – the ratio of the number of children (0-14 years old) and older people (65 years or over) to the working-age population (15-64 years old) – is higher for zero and low net migration levels.
The current rate of net migration provides the middle ground in balancing population age structure and growth.
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Population projections
Planners need to know expected population size and growth to ensure adequate services and provisions. The ABS has produced projections for national and sub-national populations since 1950.
Population inquiries throughout Australia’s history have consistently called on such statistics to enable the country’s responsiveness and preparedness to accommodate numbers. Australia hasn’t set any population targets, mainly to avoid coercive population measures (such as mandating birth rates) and to allow flexibility in government policy, particularly around immigration intake.
Estimating population size and growth into the future is about what might be (projection) and not what will be (forecast). So population projections are not predictions; they’re calculations of potential future populations based on assumptions about possible births, deaths and migration.
The “best-before-date” for population projections is considered to be around 5-10 years from the initial base year of calculation. This is why projections should be regularly updated based on best available population data (the census and vital statistics) to ensure assumptions reflect births, deaths and migration trends.
Australia is one part of the global community. Cutting immigration to Australia will impact the demographic composition of the country, with consequences for the working-age population and income tax base.
Any changes to the migration program should be considered alongside evidence. Available evidence shows Australia’s current migration program intake (190,000) is about right for Australia.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100030/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Australia doesn’t need a moratorium. What we need is a respectful, open and evidence-based population discussion.
Liz Allen, Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/migration-helps-balance-our-ageing-population-we-dont-need-a-moratorium-100030" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Migration helps balance our ageing population – we don't need a moratorium

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
With the release of regional population and migration data for 2016-17, in this week’s Pulse we take a look at where people migrating away from capital cities are ending up moving to.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released regional population growth data for 2016-17. The data included information on internal migration showing where people were moving to. Using this data we can determine when people migrate away from a capital city where they are settling. For this we are looking at internal movements from the Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSA) to other SA4 regions across the country.
Of those people shifting out of Sydney, the most popular destinations were those directly adjacent to the city: Newcastle/Lake Macquarie and Illawarra. The Australian Capital Territory and Gold Coast also recorded more than 5,000 person arrivals from Sydney over the past year. Six of the top 10 regions for arrival of former Sydney residents were within New South Wales with the remaining for in ACT, Qld and Vic.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg1.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Sydney 2016-17" width="688" height="410">
The top five regions of arrival for former residents of Melbourne are all within Victoria and they are all directly adjacent to Melbourne. Latrobe-Gippsland (7,259) and Geelong (6,894) have attracted the greatest number of former Melbourne residents over the past year. Seven of the top 10 regions for arrivals of former Melbourne residents were in Victoria with the Gold and Sunshine Coasts in Qld and the ACT accounting for the other three regions in the top 10.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg2.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Melbourne 2016-17" width="659" height="395">
 Seven of the top 10 regions for arrivals of departing residents of Brisbane are also located in Qld. The Gold and Sunshine Coasts record a much greater number of arrivals from Brisbane than any of the other regions on the list. Interestingly, the data also suggests that those migrating away from Brisbane to other areas of Qld tend to remain in the southern areas of the state. The three regions of top migration from Brisbane that aren’t within the state are Melbourne-Inner, Richmond-Tweed (directly adjacent to the Gold Coast) and the ACT.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseinmg3.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Brisbane 2016-17" width="653" height="399">
 A reasonably large number of residents leaving Adelaide move to other regions of SA (noting there are only three regional SA4 areas in SA). The South-East region of the state is the most popular for departing Adelaide residents followed by Barossa-Yorke-Mid North. Melbourne is also a popular region for those departing Adelaide accounting for three of the top 10 regions with the ACT, Darwin, Gold Coast and Parramatta also making the list for regions outside of SA.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg4.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Adelaide 2016-17" width="674" height="397">
 It is perhaps a little surprising that the top destinations for departing residents of Perth are within Western Australia and not interstate. The four regional SA4 regions of the state are also the top four destinations for those migrating out of Perth. Regions of Melbourne account for three of the remaining five locations outside of WA with Darwin, Gold Coast and ACT also making the list.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg5.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Perth 2016-17" width="661" height="402">
 The most popular region for residents of Hobart that move out of the city is the surrounding South East region. In fact, the South East has seen double the number of migrants from Hobart than Launceston and the North East in second place. Note that there are only three SA4 regions of Tas outside of Greater Hobart and they are each listed. Outside of Tas, four regions are in Vic (each of which are in Melbourne), two regions are in Qld and the remaining region is the ACT.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg6.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Hobart 2016-17" width="664" height="398">
 When residents of Darwin move away from the city, the greatest share of them move to other parts of the Territory outside of the capital city. Qld is a popular destination from Darwin residents moving away with five of the top 10 regions listed within the state and all except for Ipswich being in coastal locations. The top 10 list also includes one region each in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide as well as the ACT.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg7.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Darwin 2016-17" width="665" height="394">
 Residents of Canberra that leave don’t have the option to move elsewhere within the territory however, a substantial number of them move to the Capital Region located adjacent in NSW. Seven of the 10 most popular regions for people from Canberra to migrate to are in NSW and 6 of them are in Sydney. Elsewhere in the top 10 Canberrans have migrated to two regions of Melbourne and the Gold Coast.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg8.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Canberra 2016-17" width="660" height="396">
 The data shows that overall a significant number of those people that moved away from a capital city over the past financial year moved to an area adjacent to the capital city. Some of these are coastal/lifestyle markets while also being locations where housing is more affordable. The reality is the reasons for moving to these locations likely vary somewhat from one in which the residents are seeking more affordable housing or one in which residents are looking for a seachange/treechange. 
CAMERON KUSHER is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Where do people migrating away from capital cities head?

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GUEST OBSERVER
So much of Australia’s history and success is built on immigration. Migrants have benefited incumbent Australians by raising incomes, increasing innovation, contributing to government budgets, smoothing over population ageing and diversifying our social fabric. But it is also true that immigration is affecting house prices and rents.
Australian governments are squandering the gains from migration with poor housing and infrastructure policies. Our new report, Housing affordability: re-imagining the Australian dream, shows what’s at stake. Unless the states reform their planning systems to allow more housing to be built, the Commonwealth should consider tapping the brakes on Australia’s migrant intake.
Immigration has increased housing demand
Australia’s migration policy is its de-facto population policy. The population is growing by about 350,000 a year. More than half of this is due to immigration.
Since 2005, net overseas migration – which includes the increase in temporary migrants – has averaged 200,000 people per year, up from 100,000 in the previous decade. It is predicted to be around 240,000 per year over the next few years.
Immigrants are more likely to move to Australia’s big cities than existing residents, which increases demand for scarce urban housing. In 2011, 86% of immigrants lived in major cities, compared to 65% of the Australian-born population.
Chart 1. Migration has jumped, and so have capital city populations
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208204/original/file-20180228-36677-18v4x0p.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">Grattan Institute, Author provided
Not surprisingly, several studies have found that migration increases house prices, especially when there are constraints on building enough new homes.
The pick-up in immigration coincides with Australia’s most recent housing price boom. Sydney and Melbourne are taking more migrants than ever. Australian house prices have increased 50% in the past five years, and by 70% in Sydney.
Chart 2: Net overseas migration into NSW and Victoria is at record levels
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208207/original/file-20180228-36674-1htxzby.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Grattan Institute (Data source: ABS 3101.0 – Australian Demographic Statistics), Author provided
Of course immigration isn’t the only factor driving up house prices and rents. Housing also costs more because incomes rose, interest rates fell and banks made it easier to get a loan. But adding 2 million migrants in the past decade has clearly increased how many new homes are needed.
We haven’t built enough homes
Housing demand from immigration shouldn’t lead to higher prices if enough dwellings are built quickly and at low cost. In post-war Australia, record rates of home building matched rapid population growth. House prices barely moved.
But over the last decade, home building did not keep pace with increases in demand, and prices rose. Through the 1990s, Australian cities built about 800 new homes for every extra 1,000 people. They built half as many over the past eight years.
We estimate somewhere between 450 and 550 more new homes are needed for each 1,000 new residents, after accounting for demolitions. And because more families are breaking up and the population is ageing, more homes are needed to accommodate households with fewer members.
The imbalance between demand and supply has consequences. Younger and poorer households are paying more for housing, and owning a home depends more on who your parents are, a big change from the early 1980s.
Chart 3: Housing construction lagged population in the last decade, but has picked up
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208209/original/file-20180228-36706-uqc0wa.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Grattan Institute, Author provided
Only in the past couple of years has construction started to match population growth, especially in Sydney. It’s no coincidence that Sydney house prices have finally moderated in the past six months.
But the backlog of a decade of undersupply remains. Development at today’s record rates is the bare minimum needed to meet record population growth built into Sydney’s and Melbourne’s housing supply targets over the next 40 years.
Chart 4: Strong housing construction will need to be maintained to meet city plan housing targets
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208433/original/file-20180301-152569-jezm0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Grattan Institute
So what should governments do?
Building more housing will improve affordability the most – but slowly. Even at current record construction rates, new housing increases the stock of dwellings by only 2% each year. But building an extra 50,000 homes a year nationwide for a decade would lead to national house prices between 5% and 20% lower than otherwise. Do it for longer and prices will fall even further.
State governments need to fix planning rules to allow more housing to be built in inner and middle-ring suburbs. More small-scale urban infill projects should be allowed without council planning approval. And state governments should allow denser development “as of right” along key transport corridors. The Commonwealth can help with financial incentives for these reforms.
But the politics of planning in our major cities is fraught. Most people in established middle suburbs already own their houses. Prospective residents who don’t already live there can’t vote in council elections, and their interests are largely unrepresented.
If we want to maintain current migration levels, along with their economic, social and budgetary benefits, we need to do better at planning to allow more housing to be built.
What does this mean for the migrant intake?
The Australian government should develop a population policy, as the Productivity Commission recommended. It should articulate the appropriate level of migration given its economic, budgetary and social benefits and costs. This should include how it affects the Australian community living with the reality of land use planning policy – and contrasting this with the effect of optimal planning policy.
If planning and infrastructure policies don’t improve, the government should consider cutting the migration intake. This would reduce demand for housing, but would also reduce the incomes of existing residents.
The best policy is probably to continue with Australia’s demand-driven, relatively high-skill migration and to build enough homes for the growing population. But Australia is in a world of third-best policy: rapid migration and restricted housing supply are imposing big costs on people who don’t already own their homes. If the states are not going to reform planning rules to increase the number of homes built, then the Australian government should consider whether reducing migration is the lesser evil.
Any reduction should be modest and targeted at the parts of the migration program that provide the smallest benefit to Australian residents and migrants themselves. Balancing these interests is difficult, because each part of the program has different economic, social and budgetary costs and benefits.
Cutting back family reunion visas would have substantial social costs. Limiting skilled migration would hurt the economy and many businesses. Restricting growth in international students would reduce universities’ incomes.
There are also broader costs to cutting the migrant intake. It would hit the Commonwealth budget in the short term. Most migrants are of working age and pay full rates of personal income tax. And many temporary migrants, such as 457 visa holders, can’t draw on a range of government services and benefits, including welfare and Medicare. More importantly, cutting back on younger, skilled migrants is likely to hurt the budget and the economy in the long term.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92502/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">But there is no point denying that housing affordability is worse because of a combination of rapid immigration and poor planning policy. Rather than tackling these issues, much of the debate has focused on policies that are unlikely to make a real difference. Unless governments own up to the real problems, and start explaining the policy changes that will make a real difference, Australia’s housing affordability woes are likely to get worse.
John Daley, Chief Executive Officer, Grattan Institute 
Brendan Coates, Fellow, Grattan Institute
Trent Wiltshire, Associate, Grattan Institute
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-migration-affects-housing-affordability-92502" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How migration affects housing affordability: Grattan Institute

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A high rate of overseas migration has led to an increasing proportion of Australians being born overseas, according to a recent review of the Census 2016 data by property analytics firm CoreLogic.
Furthermore, it has also resulted in more people living in Australia that are not classified as Australian citizens. 
Research analyst Cameron Kusher observed that although overseas migration has been high, nationally, only 10.7% of residents of Australia are not Australian citizens. Across the states, the proportion of residents that aren’t citizens ranges from 4.4% in Tasmania to 13.3% in Western Australia. 
A review of SA2 region data from the 2016 Census shows that nationally, the highest proportion of Australian citizens live in areas of Queensland and Northern Territory. Many of these regions listed are outside of capital cities and in remote Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander communities. Interestingly four (Heathcote – Waterfall, Woronora Heights, Illawong – Alfords Bay and Lilli Pilli – Port Hacking – Dolans Bay) of the six (Geilston Bay – Risdon and Brighton – Pontville) capital city regions listed are situated in Sydney. Of the capital cities only Melbourne and Perth have a higher proportion of non-citizens than Sydney. The other two areas with the highest proportion of Australian citizens are situated in Hobart and only 3.8% of residents of Hobart are not citizens. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/12/CorelogicPulse1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/12/CorelogicPulse1.png" alt="">
The table compiled by Kusher shows the SA2 regions of the country with the highest proportion of residents that aren’t Australian citizens.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/12/CorelogicPulse2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/12/CorelogicPulse2.png" alt="">
“Given all of these regions are in capital cities, it would tend to support the fact that migrants prefer capital cities rather than regional areas,” he said. 
“A more in depth look at the locations show that many of them are located within the same areas, or very close to, major universities. This highlights the strong demand for Australian tertiary education services and that when studying, foreign students tend to live close to the university.” 
Since the 2016 Census, Australia's rate of net overseas migration has accelerated.
“While many weren’t citizens at the time of the Census, they may become citizens and a proportion will leave Australia,” Kusher said. 
“It would be reasonable to expect that by the time the 2021 Census rolls around an even higher proportion of the national population is likely to be non-citizens.” 
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Where Australian citizens live and where non-citizens live: CoreLogic Census review 

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76787/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Australia has few places to capture the spill-over of talented workers priced out of the big cities. Some may leave the country altogether – and where talent goes, capital flows.
If the growth of cities in the 20th century was marked by “white flight”, the 21st century is shaping up to be the era of “bright flight”. The young, highly educated and restless are being priced out of many of the world’s major cities.
They are choosing instead to set themselves up in smaller, regional cities. These offer access to less expensive housing and abundant cheap workspace. The barriers to entering the workforce or starting up a business are lower.
The “metropolitan pressure” of rapid urbanisation is generating a talent spill-over effect, which is setting the stage for a new era of urban winners and losers. This talent leakage is primarily made up of the “forgotten ones” – those who don’t qualify for social housing, but who are unable to afford market-rate housing.
In this age of of hyper-urban migration, where talent goes, capital flows. Cities need to respond to this migration trend and provide adequate housing solutions to retain talent. If not, it could shape up to be a major economic challenge as many are relying on this cohort of knowledge sector and tech-focused workers to lead them into the digital age.
Lessons from the rise of the suburbs
Many will know the urban story, or rather sub-urban story, of the mid-20th century. It was an era marked by “white flight”, the term used to describe the phenomenon of predominantly middle and upper-class Caucasians leaving urban centres to live in the suburbs.
For some, it was a chance to have their dream home in a culturally and ideologically homogeneous neighbourhood replete with white picket fences and enabled by access to cheap debt and favourable tax incentives.
From the cities’ perspective, this migration was devastating. Cities saw their tax revenues drained as higher-income earners fled to the ’burbs. At the same time, these cities required increased investment in social services, housing and education for low-income residents who largely had no choice but to stay in urban centres.
Over a few decades, this exodus led to severe economic and social decay in many of the world’s cities. By the mid-1970s, even New York was on the verge of bankruptcy.
Reversal drives an urban renaissance
This era of “white flight”, however, began to fade in the later part of the 20th century as a new generation of urbanites flocked to cities across the world.
What we are experiencing now is nothing short of a modern urban renaissance. From the very young to the very old, from singles to families, people are moving to cities in droves, drawn by the excitement, cultural diversity, eclecticism and array of employment opportunities that urban living offers.
Global cities like London and New York have rebounded from this era of urban decay better than they could ever have expected. In many ways, however, they have been too successful for their own good. The reverse migration back to the city has placed enormous pressure on our metropolitan regions.
As urban populations grow, so too does the level of investment needed for cities to function well. The investment is required to improve ageing infrastructure, expand mass transit, increase housing supply and extend capacity of civil services.
But making all these upgrades to improve and sustainably grow our cities creates another challenge: it increases competition for space. The more we increase density in our cities, the more expensive land becomes. The more expensive land becomes, the more expensive housing becomes, so people get priced out of their city of choice and move on.
Spilling over to second-tier cities
This pattern has been playing out for a some time now in the US. The spill-over of talent from top-tier cities like New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco has flowed into more regional cities such as Seattle, Portland, Austin, Philadelphia and Denver.
These second-tier cities have been the beneficiaries of this new wave of tech-savvy, knowledge sector workers. With all those bright workers around, companies like Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon soon followed.
As a result, these cities now have some of the hottest property markets in the world. And they are now experiencing their own growing pains as housing prices have soared and the next wave of talent are being priced out.
And so the pattern continues and the talent spills into even more regional cities like Charlotte, Chattanooga and Minneapolis.
What does this mean for Australia?
Today, civic leaders and planning agencies are caught in the vice of balancing the need for increased density and growth while maintaining liveability, affordability and a sense of place.
Unfortunately for many cities, this vice has been tightened too much. We are pushing out the very workers who make our cities function (bus drivers, social workers, teachers), who define their culture (artists, designers, writers, musicians) and who will shape their future (data scientists, software developers, clean tech experts).
For Australia, this issue is much more acute. Unlike the US, which has a multitude of cities for talent to spill into, Australia has only a handful of cities. While places like Parramatta, Geelong and Newcastle will likely benefit from talent capture owing to the pressure build-up in Melbourne and Sydney, many more “bright ones” will likely seek their fortunes overseas and leave the country altogether.
We will rue the day if the companies follow suit, but cities can also take action to relieve some of this affordability pressure. Many cities are enabling innovative housing models such as Baugruppen in Berlin and Pocket Living in London. US cities like Seattle, Austin and Portland are leading the way on inter-generational urban co-housing models.
In Australia, Moreland City Council, birthplace of The Commons and Nightingale housing model, is doing its part to keep talented artists, designers, key workers, young families and downsizers within metro-Melbourne. Co-living models, such as Base Commons in Melbourne, are also making an entry here in Australia as a refreshed, millennial-driven approach to urban co-housing.
Watch this space. And cities: keep enabling housing innovation.
Jason Twill is a Innovation Fellow and Senior Lecturer at School of Architecture, University of Technology Sydney and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jason-twill-105833" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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From ‘white flight’ to ‘bright flight’ – the looming risk for our growing cities: Jason Twill

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76004/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">GUEST OBSERVER
Today’s release of data from the 2016 Census allows us to identify some of Australians' more common characteristics, how they vary across states and territories, and how they are changing over time.
Australia undertakes a compulsory long-form census – where detailed information across several areas is required of every individual respondent – every five years.
So, what did we learn from the first set of results? According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS):
The 2016 Census has revealed the ‘typical’ Australian is a 38-year-old female who was born in Australia, and is of English ancestry. She is married and lives in a couple family with two children and has completed Year 12. She lives in a house with three bedrooms and two motor vehicles.
Australia is getting a bit older; the typical Australian in 2011 was aged 37.
<h2 class="caption">How do today’s results vary across Australia?</h2>
First, age varies by state and territory.
With variables like age, we often find the “typical” value by taking the median. In essence, we (statistically) line everyone up from youngest to oldest, and find the person who is older than half the population but younger than the other half.
In Tasmania, the median age among 2016 Census respondents was 42. But in the Northern Territory, it was 34. Those in Australian Capital Territory were also quite young (median age 35), whereas those in South Australia were relatively old (40).
The NT population’s relatively young age is influenced by the very high proportion that identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander.
While we don’t have updated estimates for that proportion (either for the NT or nationally), the data released today show that the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is quite young. The median age nationally is 23. New South Wales and Queensland have the youngest Indigenous population, with a median age of 22.
This release also tells us something about the different migrant profiles across Australia. Nationally, the most common country of birth for migrants is England. And the median age of migrants is much older than for the Australian-born population (44 compared to 38).
The most common country of birth for migrants living in Queensland was New Zealand; in Victoria it was India; in NSW it was China. There may not be too many more censuses until the most common migrant nationally was not born in England.
Ahead of the forthcoming federal budget, there has been a lot of media and policy attention on housing affordability. Today’s release of census data points to some subtle differences across Australia that may influence policy responses.
Nationally, the most common tenure type is owning a three-bedroom home with a mortgage. In Queensland, however, renters make up a roughly equal share of the population. But, in Tasmania and NSW, more people own their own home outright. And in the NT, renting is the most common tenure type.
In a finding that won’t surprise many, the typical female does a bit more unpaid work around the house than the typical male. The most common category for males is less than five hours a week. The most common for females is five to 14 hours.
We won’t know how this compares to paid work for a while yet – or whether these differences vary depending on age.
<h2 class="caption">What future releases will tell us</h2>
The profiles released today offer us limited information. But the census remains one of Australia’s most important datasets.
When detailed data are released in June and then progressively throughout the rest of 2017, we will be able to dig deeper into small geographic areas or specific population groups.
We will be able to ask if there are pockets of Australia with significant socioeconomic disadvantage, and if it is worsening. We will be able to hold governments accountable for the progress we have made on the education, employment and health outcomes of the Indigenous population.
And we will be able to test whether the languages we speak, the houses we are living in, and the jobs that we are doing, are changing.
But those questions rely on a high-quality census.
The attention on the 2016 Census until now has been mostly negative. There was increased concern related to data privacy, the failure of the online data entry system on census night, and staff cuts at the ABS.
In October 2016, the ABS estimated the response rate to the 2016 Census was more than 96%, and that 58% of the household forms received were submitted online. But what matters more than how many people filled in the census and how they did it is whether the responses given were accurate. We therefore need to see a lot more interrogation of the data before taking the results at face value, but we can remain cautiously optimistic.
The ABS will be hoping that now some data is released, attention will shift to what the results tell us about Australian society. It is to be hoped the data will be robust, the insights will be newsworthy, and policy and practice will shift accordingly.
We won’t know this for sure until the first major data release of data June 27 – the data released today were just a sneak peak.
 
Nicholas Biddle is a Deputy Director of the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods (CSRM) at the Australian National University (ANU) and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-biddle-10171" target="_blank">here</a>.
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First results from the 2016 Census paint a picture of who the ‘typical’ Australian is: Nicholas Biddle

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Interstate migration to Queensland is picking up again as expected as folks head north from crowded and pricey Sydney, but it was the record interstate migration to Victoria which really shot the lights out over the year to September. 
The driver of this is clear, since Victoria alone has been creating almost all of Australia's jobs lately.
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 Net overseas migration also accelerated into Sydney, Melbourne, and south east Queensland.</div>
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 <div>As a result the most populous states are mopping up a huge share of population growth, with New South Wales and Victoria alone accounting for 68 percent of the population increase, and Queensland a further 19 percent. </div>
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 <div>Absolute population growth increased to 67,700 in Queensland and a massive 109,600 in New South Wales - mainly into Greater Sydney - but Victoria is breaking demographic records not seen since the gold rush, with the total population exploding 127,500 higher over the year to September. </div>
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 <div>Here are those same numbers looked at over the past three years, with South Australia and Western Australia losing momentum, and the largest capital cities gaining population growth at their expense. </div>
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<div>The massive headcount growth into Melbourne in particular explains why residential housing vacancy rates have been falling, close to a decade low at the last count. 
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<div>Despite many new tower blocks adorning the skyline, a record supply of small apartments has only partially absorbed a vast surge in migration to the Victorian capital.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Melbourne crowned king of jobs and growth

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
Annual migration to New Zealand hit its highest annual level on record in November 2016 at 70,400. 
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Australia saw a net loss of permanent and long term 1,830 departures to NZ over the year - mainly Kiwis returning home - although over the last six years the cumulative gain to Australia has been more than 116,000. 
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 <div class="separator">Although it's tempting to think that Australia is losing population to New Zealand, in reality the opposite is true.</div>
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<div class="separator">In fact, an extra 16,000 Kiwis came to Australia on 444 visas on a net basis over the year, taking the total storming past 677,000. </div>
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<div class="separator">The big drivers of migration to NZ are now China and South Africa. </div>
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 NZ still has a lower unemployment rate than Australia, which is very much helping its cause.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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