Jobs Growth

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GUEST OBSERVER
In the second half of 2016 employment growth significantly overshot our preferred leading indicators.
So we were not surprised, in fact we had been expecting such a shift, that in the first three months of 2016 (slide 5), the ABS reported total employment rising an average of just 5.6k per month taking the annual pace down to around 2 percent yr from the Nov 2015 peak of 3.0 percent yr.
From a significant outperformance compared in our preferred near-term employment indicator, the Westpac Jobs Index (slide 6), employment growth quickly fell to be more in line with it.
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The June Labour Force Survey continued this softer 'trend' with a 7.9k rise in total employment. Westpac was forecasting +10k while the market was expecting +12k. Total employment has lifted 225.0k in the year (or 1.9%yr) and while full-time employment bounced back in the month (+38.4k) and part-time fell 30.6k, annual growth in part-time employment continues to outpace full-time employment (134.4k/3.7 percent yr vs. 90.6k/1.1 percent yr).
We believe that the shift to part-time employment is likely to be more about the sectors are expanding and contracting rather than any significant change to employment arrangements. It is a similar situation for employment by gender with female employment rising 136.2k in the year (2.5 percent yr) compared to the 88.8k (1.4 percentyr) rise in male employment.
It is possible that uncertainty around the Federal election may have held back the employment gains in July.
In addition, the ABS notes that the July outgoing rotational group for the sample has a higher than average attachment to the labour force. If the in group rolling is more average, this could lead to a softer employment print but not necessarily a higher unemployment rate.
So it may be tempting to forecast a soft employment gain, our Jobs Index continues to strengthen suggesting we are in store for a pick-up in employment. Westpac’s July forecast for +25k total employment has the annual rate easing back a touch to 1.8%yr. However, this is more about base effect than the start of a meaningfully softer trend. The participation rate rose 0.1ppt in May to 64.9. Westpac is forecasting the participation to be flat in June (slide 7). 
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Participation did rise through 2015, due in a large part, to rising participation in NSW and, in particular, by females. We have seen a very modest moderation so far in 2016 and the big question for 2016 is can NSW hold this overall higher rate of participation as males participation in that state continues to trend lower? (slide 8).
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Our July forecast for flat participation combined with a solid employment number should be enough to hold the unemployment rate at 5.8%. (slide 9)
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The March and April Labour Force Surveys revealed a cautionary sign in a sudden decline in hours worked but so far, this has not turned into similar downturn in employment (slide 10).
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While hours worked per person, particularly for full-time employees, has weakened in the last year it does appear that the worst as the slide in hours worked has not led a correction in employment. (slide 11).
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The ABS publishes their own measure of unemployment expectations and this lifted through Q1 which was a worry as this can point to a possible rise in unemployment (slide 12).
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However, the Q2 update reveals this as a temporary blip just as the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index suggested it would be (slide 13). 
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The Westpac–MI Index is pointing to the labour market improving in the near term at least in regards to the unemployment rate (slide 14).
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The Westpac–MI is also useful for gauging how much hours worked may be over/under shooting relative to expectations and thus point to turning points in hours worked momentum. (slide 15) (slide 16).
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Outside of NSW it seems we have passed an inflection point for growth in hours worked. 
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a><a href="https://wibiq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2016/August/er20160517JulyPreview.pdf">.</a>
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Labour market improving in the near term: Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVER
Any downturn in the construction industry could trigger job losses to a range of sectors that support the building industry, such as planning, project management, real estate and property services. This threat reveals the risk of relying on building and construction to sustain the economy. 
Since before the global financial crisis, urban economies across the world have relied increasingly on the construction of housing, especially high rise urban apartments, to maintain economic activity. 
Construction has boomed in Australia, especially in Melbourne and Sydney. Migration from overseas and interstate, as well as international student numbers, have so far maintained sufficient demand for city apartments and suburban houses to keep the building boom going.
Nationally the number of jobs in construction has increased from 927,000 in May 2007 to 1,110,400 in May 2017, an increase of 183,400 jobs. Even now, the federal government expects that construction employment will increase by 10.9% in the five years to 2022. 
But this view is at odds with new data. A recent report by advisory firm BIS Oxford predicts that new dwellings construction will fall by 31%, from 230,000 to 160,000 dwellings in Australia, in the next three years. This prediction foreshadows a dramatic decline in construction employment. 
The other jobs construction creates
Construction activity creates employment across the economy. There are jobs in industries that provide input building materials – such as local quarries and forests, sawmills, concrete products manufacturers, steel makers and glass, plastic and metal products manufacturers. There are also jobs created for people working in import firms bringing in materials that might not be made locally, as well as for people who work to store materials and transport them from ports and factories to building sites. Construction generates jobs for people involved in the design and planning of buildings, also those involved in the financing and contracting of construction projects. 
Once the buildings exist, construction creates more jobs in marketing the properties, building inspections, buyers agents, mortgage brokers, real estate agents and the like. After the sale, more jobs are sustained in interior designer, selling furnishings and fittings and appliances, and providing internet connections and utilities. 
The wages earned and taxes paid by these workers then create jobs in other services industries. This includes everything from dentists and personal trainers to bank tellers and public servants. New populations create new demand for supermarkets and schools and hospitals that employ more people. 
The secondary circuit of capital
Following the ideas of French urban theorist Henri Lefebvre, geographer David Harvey famously explained a process called the “second circuit of capital” where building replaces manufacturing as the driver of growth. This secondary circuit soaks up the excess capital sloshing around the world that can’t be invested profitably in the primary circuit of (manufacturing) production. Buildings are built for the purpose of generating profits for developers and investors. 
In places like Melbourne, the secondary circuit has created so many jobs in construction and related industries, that these have become the key drivers of growth. All these jobs are at risk when construction activity stalls. 
David Harvey’s crucial insight was that once economies rely on construction to drive employment, then the entire economy becomes like a giant Ponzi scheme. The only way that employment in a host city can be maintained is to keep building more buildings. 
Harvey argues the principle purpose of building is to generate profit, which means that the building will stop if there are insufficient numbers of buyers, or insufficient buyers willing to pay a price that will generate profit.
If the developers can elect to build elsewhere, in places where returns are higher, the local construction-led system can collapse like a house of cards. The resulting crisis would not be confined to the construction sector but would resonate through all the activities contributing to building or benefiting from the taxes and charges generated by building. 
That pretty much means everybody. Once the cards fall over, not only do employment opportunities decline, but so do property values, as prices adjust to the new reality. 
Some economists recommend creating new infrastructure projects to provide work, to keep the construction sector and material suppliers in business. But they rarely consider the second order effects as the downturn in construction filters through the economy. Most economists would argue that dealing with these secondary effects is best left to market forces. 
This means that as the downturn filters through the economy, jobs will be lost quietly across a range of sectors. The sectors most obviously vulnerable in the event of a downturn in residential building activity will be those that rely on discretionary building-related spending – such as furniture and effects retailing, wholesaling and manufacturing. The impacts on affected households will be no less devastating than for direct building jobs.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sally-weller-116519" target="_blank">Sally Weller</a> is Visiting Fellow, Australian Catholic University and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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The hollow promise of construction-led jobs and growth

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GUEST OBSERVER
Today's Australian jobs numbers surprised a little to the downside, with a drop of -5k jobs in September (market had +10k), while the unemployment rate was steady and in line with expectations at 6.2%.
The unemployment rate has now been broadly steady between 6.0-6.4% for the past 16 months. The official labour market numbers are broadly in line with other surveys, including job advertisements, vacancies and hiring intentions, which have all shown a gradual improvement in labour demand since their trough in early 2014.
This gradual improvement is consistent with the RBA's own forecasts. We expect the RBA to be on hold in coming quarters.
Facts
Employment fell by -5.1k in September (market and HSBC expected +10k). Over the past six months, employment growth has averaged +15k a month. Annual employment growth was unchanged from August, at 2.0% y-o-y.
The participation rate fell by 0.1ppt to 64.9%. The recent trough in participation was 64.5% in October 2014.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2%, in line with expectations and also exactly where it was one year ago. The unemployment rate has been between 6.0% and 6.4% for the past 16 months, during which time the trend unemployment rate has been steady at 6.1-6.2%.
Total hours worked lifted by 0.7% in September, with annual growth rising to 2.5% y-o-y. This is the fastest pace of growth since the year to October 2011.
Implications
Although the monthly jobs print was weaker than expected (-5k), the unemployment rate is still continuing to track sideways, rather than rise. Looking through the month-to-month volatility, these numbers suggest continuation of the status quo. The labour market has stabilised but there is not quite enough momentum to get the unemployment rate to fall.
Given recent measurement challenges in the official numbers it is also important to put them in the context of the full range of jobs indicators (see charts below). These measures are showing a broad trend of gradual improvement in labour market conditions.
 Job advertisements rose in September, continuing the upward trend that has been apparent since early 2014. The ABS quarterly job vacancies survey shows a similar trend and continued to rise in Q3. Both of these surveys are showing gradual improvement, although the pace is slower than in previous cycles. 
The consumer sentiment survey has also recently shown a sharp fall in households' expectations of unemployment. This suggests that the labour market is not a key constraint on households' spending decisions. 
From the RBA's perspective, today's numbers are unlikely to be surprising. Along with other indicators, they confirm that the labour market is stabilising, consistent with the RBA's own forecast for a steady unemployment rate in coming quarters. 
 
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<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">Paul Bloxham</a> is chief economist (Australia and New Zealand) for HSBC. Daniel Smith is economist, HSBC.
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Unemployment steady, labour market remains stable: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<div>A strong +1.6 percent increase in job advertisements in June saw year-on-year vacancies rise very strongly by +11 percent to a total of 169,600, according to the Department of Employment.</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Abs2.jpg" alt=""> <div>Source: Department of Employment</div>
 <div>Total vacancies are now at their highest level in four years, which bodes well for jobs growth picking up. </div>
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<div>Since the peak of the mining boom June 2012, the share of total vacancies located in Western Australia has declined from 15.6 percent to 7.8 percent. </div>
 <div>On the other hand there has been a huge surge in vacancies in New South Wales over the past three years, up by 37.4 percent in trend terms to a massive 91,400 (a record boom). </div>
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<div>Over the past year the percentage growth in vacancies has also been very strong in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT. </div>
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<div>In trend terms all eight occupation groups are strengthening, and over the year job advertisements were up in 33 of the 37 recorded regions. </div>
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<div>The decreases were seen in northern Queensland, Perth, and western Tasmania.</div>
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 <div>The index has its weaknesses, particularly since it doesn't differentiate between full time and part time gigs.</div>
 Nevertheless, all in all, this looks pretty good for jobs growth in the second half of 2016.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Job ads up to a four-year high: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVATION
When it comes to the outlook for employment, there’s good news and bad news.
To begin with the good news: with a bit of luck, the next few months will see the fastest expansion of employment in Australia’s history.
The bad news? Well, there’s virtually no chance it will be enough to get employment to where it was in March, before the COVID-19 shutdown.
In fact, even on a best-case scenario it’s likely by the end of September we will only be back to the worst points of the 1980s and 1990s recessions.
The best-case scenario
Other Bureau of Statistics data suggests that between mid-March and mid-April employment fell <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EEze6-rwkdcKgJ0iLWD7PfmWoMz8ob6Q/view">1.3 to 1.6 million</a>.
<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/prime-minister-scott-morrison-hopes-850-000-back-at-work-by-july-20200508-p54r12">Treasury</a> estimates that the planned reopening of the economy will result in a bounceback of 850,000 jobs.
Suppose that a decrease of 1.3 million turns out to be the trough and recovery is uninterrupted.
Employment at the end of September would then be 440,000 below where it was in March, 3.4% lower.
The turnaround would be a considerable achievement.
But even if it happens, we will have only recovered to around the worst points of the 1980s and 1990s recessions, where employment decreased by about 4 per cent.
Employment won’t recover fully in this best-case scenario because some parts of the economy will still be shut down (including international travel) and COVID-19 will continue to cause many consumers to spend less than usual.
That best case is unlikely
There are several reasons to worry about whether the best-case can be achieved.
First, job gains from reopening businesses are likely to be offset by losses in employment in other industries suffering from reduced consumer demand and business investment.
While cafes and restaurants may start up again, Bureau of Statistics data shows that employment has <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6160.0.55.001Main%20Features5Week%20ending%202%20May%202020?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=6160.0.55.001&amp;issue=Week%20ending%202%20May%202020&amp;num=&amp;">begun to decline</a> in large industries such as construction and professional services.
Second, the effects of reopening may not be all we expect. Labour hoarding – where businesses retain more workers than needed during an economic downturn - might mean that reopening doesn’t translate into as many new jobs as expected.
This is likely to be particularly acute given that JobKeeper has effectively paid employers to subsidise labour.
Third, impacts from longer-run structural changes in the economy might begin to cause employment losses, especially as JobKeeper is partially unwound.
So what are we to do?
Even under the best-case scenario employment will be substantially lower than before COVID-19 well into the future. And we can’t presume the best-case will happen. A compelling case exists for substantial ongoing economic stimulus post-September 2020.
The labour market will not have fully recovered by then. To remove stimulus would only set back recovery. The question therefore should not be: is stimulus needed, but rather, what size and type of stimulus is needed.
Continuing JobKeeper beyond September 2020 could have an important role in providing income security to affected workers and macroeconomic stimulus.
It is a known policy, it operates effectively, and it appears to have community support. Replacing it with an alternative type of stimulus could risk harming confidence and the recovery.
We can’t simply end JobKeeper
An extra (and considerable) advantage of continuing JobKeeper is allowing time for a staged transition away from it. Stopping it will inevitably push up unemployment.
A staged transition would spread out that adjustment rather than creating a shock in September.
A transition from JobKeeper could be done via stepped decreases in the size of payment or progressively restricting eligibility as industries or businesses recover. The transition could begin at the end of September, or earlier if it is judged that employment is likely to have already recovered substantially before then.
An objection to retaining JobKeeper is that it is preventing adjustment in the labour market, and disrupting the normal process of businesses starting up and failing.
There are two responses.
First, the question is not about whether JobKeeper should be permanent, but about the timing of its removal.
Whenever it is (or starts to be) removed, labour mobility will return and any firms on life support will disappear. Having this happen via a staged transition is better than having it happen all at once.
Second, the potential economic losses from unemployment in a depressed economy swamp the potential losses from having inefficient firms operating for longer.
Our number one priority has to be maintaining and restoring employment.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139648/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeff-borland-1079">Jeff Borland</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-even-the-best-case-for-jobs-isnt-good-well-need-more-jobkeeper-139648">original article</a>.
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Why even the best case for jobs isn't good, we'll need more JobKeeper

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The May unemployment rate increased by 85,700 people to 927,600, taking the unemployment rate up to 7.1 per cent, today's ABS figures showed.
It was now at an 18 year high.
The ACT has the lowest unemployment rate at 4.1 per cent.
New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania are the only other states under the national unemployment rate.
New South Wales has the lowest at 6.4 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent in April, and Victoria 6.9 per cent, up from six per cent in April. Tasmania's unemployment rate is 6.4 per cent.
Western Australia's unemployment rate is the highest at 8.1 per cent, then Queensland and South Australia and 7.9 per cent.
The Northern Territory has a unemployment rate of 7.4 per cent. 
In April it sat at 6.4 per cent, and 5.2 per cent in March before COVID-19 took over.
Seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 227,700 people between April and May.
Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said, "The drop in employment, of close to a quarter of a million people, added to the 600,000 in April, brings the total fall to 835,000 people since March." “In two months, the percentage of people aged 15 and over employed in Australia decreased from around 62.5 per cent to around 58.7 per cent.” As in April, the size of the increase in the unemployment rate in May was reduced by larger than usual numbers of employed and unemployed people leaving the labour force. 
This was reflected in a further fall in the participation rate, down 0.7 percentage points to 62.9 per cent. 
The last time the participation rate was below 63 per cent was in January 2001. Monthly hours worked fell 0.7 per cent in May, to be down 10.2 per cent since March (with the April fall revised up to 9.5 per cent). "The ABS estimates that a combined group of around 2.3 million people - around 1 in 5 employed people - were affected by either job loss between April and May or had less hours than usual for economic reasons in May," Mr Jarvis said.
Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy now expects unemployment to reach eight per cent by September, when previously Josh Frydenberg said that the treasury expected in April the jobless rate would peak at 10 per cent in the June quarter before recovering.
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Unemployment reaches new high over 7%: ABS

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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Employment rose by 111,000 in August (survey forecast: -35,000) after rising by an upwardly-revised 119,200 jobs in July (previously reported as an 114,700 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 36,200 and part-time jobs rose by 74,800.
The unemployment rate fell from a 22-year high of 7.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent in August (survey forecast: 7.7 per cent). It was the biggest monthly fall in the jobless rate in 32 years (July 1988).
Hours worked rose from 1.682 million hours to 1.683 million hours (up 0.1 per cent) but were down 5.1 per cent over the year. 
The participation rate rose from 64.7 per cent to 64.8 per cent in August.
In August, the underutilisation rate fell from 18.7 per cent to 18.0 per cent. The underemployment rate was broadly steady at 11.2 per cent.
Unemployment across states in August: NSW 6.7 per cent (July 7.2 per cent); Victoria 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent); Queensland 7.5 per cent (8.8 per cent); South Australia 7.9 per cent (7.9 per cent); Western Australia 7.0 per cent (8.3 per cent); Tasmania 6.3 per cent (6.0 per cent); Northern Territory 4.2 per cent (7.5 per cent); ACT 4.2 per cent (4.6 per cent).
In August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people except for Victoria. The number of employed people in Victoria decreased by 42,400. In contrast, New South Wales recorded an increase of 51,500 employed people and there was an increase of 32,200 employed people in Western Australia.
Over the three months to August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people, led by gains in NSW (+188,100), followed by Queensland (+90,300), Western Australia (+73,400), South Australia (+33,400), Tasmania (+15,800), ACT (+11,900), Victoria (+9,500) and Northern Territory (+2,800).
A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending.
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What does it all mean?
There is no doubt that this is a stunning set of job figures – especially considering that nation’s second largest economy was in lockdown throughout the month. More people were looking for jobs in August, more people found jobs, and more employees reconnected to their workplaces. The jobless rate fell sharply and a six-digit gain in jobs was recorded.
More than 86,000 unemployed people found work. The cherry on top was a drop in the youth jobless rate from 16.3 per cent to 14.3 per cent. The job programs are clearly working as intended.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/UNEMPLOYMENT%20RATE.png" alt="">
JobKeeper and JobSeeker have been instrumental in supporting the job market, spending and the broader economy. But the programs have made it more difficult in working out what is going on, specifically in the job market. But these are extraordinary times and the job programs are similarly remarkable.
There will still be bumps on the road ahead. But the federal, state and territory governments, Reserve Bank, unions and businesses can all claim credit for today’s stunning job figures.
However the hope is that the unemployment rate will now peak well below official forecasts of near 10 per cent. In fact, for this to occur at least 400,000 jobs would have to be shed by year-end – unlikely with Victoria’s restrictions being eased. And the aim has to be to be quickly get people back in jobs because the longer that people are out of work, the less employable they become.
The data shows a return to work of sole traders but fewer job gains for employees. That makes sense in that the economy is still only gradually re-opening. But it is an encouraging trend. 
Australia may be technically in recession like most of the globe, but it continues to be a non-typical recession. Consumer spending continues to rise as Kogan confirmed yesterday. Home prices are rising in many parts of the country. 
Home sales are lifting, underpinned by HomeBuilder. And infrastructure projects support commercial and engineering construction sectors. Despite tensions with China, our largest trading partner is hoovering up record volumes of iron ore and gold exports are expected to hit record highs, courtesy of pandemic demand.
The latest job data coincides with more data on job ads from SEEK, showing (ex-Victoria) another 1.8 per cent lift in vacancies in August.
What do the figures show? 
Labour force – August
Employment rose by 111,000 in August (survey forecast: -35,000) after rising by an upwardly-revised 119,200 jobs in July (previously reported as an 114,700 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 36,200 and part-time jobs rose by 74,800.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/EMPLOYMENT%20COMMSEC.png" alt="">
The unemployment rate fell from a 22-year high of 7.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent in August (survey forecast: 7.7 per cent).
Hours worked rose from 1.682 million hours to 1.683 million hours (up 0.1 per cent) but were down 5.1 per cent over the year.
The ABS noted: "Employment rose almost 1 per cent but hours worked rose by a more modest 0.1 per cent. Hours fell by 4.8 per cent in Victoria, compared to a 1.8 per cent increase across the rest of Australia.”
The weaker increase in hours worked has also been reflected in the strength of the increase in part-time employment between May and August, which has been almost eight times greater than the increase in full-time employment.”
The participation rate rose from 64.7 per cent to 64.8 per cent in August.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/PARTICIPATION%20RATE.png" alt="">
In August, the underutilisation rate fell from 18.7 per cent to 18.0 per cent. The underemployment rate was broadly steady at 11.2 per cent.
Unemployment across states and territories in August: NSW 6.7 per cent (July 7.2 per cent); Victoria 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent); Queensland 7.5 per cent (8.8 per cent); South Australia 7.9 per cent (7.9 per cent); Western Australia 7.0 per cent (8.3 per cent); Tasmania 6.3 per cent (6.0 per cent); Northern Territory 4.2 per cent (7.5 per cent); ACT 4.2 per cent (4.6 per cent).
In August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people except for Victoria. The number of employed people in Victoria decreased by 42,400. In contrast, New South Wales recorded an increase of 51,500 employed people and there was an increase of 32,200 employed people in Western Australia.
Over the three months to August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people, led by gains in NSW (+188,100), followed by Queensland (+90,300), Western Australia (+73,400), South Australia (+33,400), Tasmania (+15,800), ACT (+11,900), Victoria (+9,500) and Northern Territory (+2,800).
ABS: “The participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the "youth" group in the labour market) decreased 0.3 pts to 65.7% in August 2020. Employment for 15-24 year olds increased by 28,800 people (1.6%). The unemployment rate for this group decreased by 2.0 pts to 14.3%.”
The ABS highlighted the gains in jobs by sole traders: “In original terms, there was a 44,500 net increase in employment between July and August. This growth in original employment can be attributed to an increase in the number of owner managers (self-employed people) without employees, most of whom working in an unincorporated enterprise (e.g. a sole trader), which increased by 50,200 (Chart 1). In contrast, there was minimal growth in the number of employees (up 2,600).”
What are the implications for investors?
Australia continues to do well. The ABS notes that the US jobless rate was 8.4 per cent in July and the jobless rate was 10.2 per cent in Canada. Estimates for Australia on a similar basis were 7.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent.
The “effective” rate of unemployment is estimated at 9.3 per cent, so there are no grounds for complacency.
The resilience of the Aussie job market continues to provide support for retailers and the housing market. While challenges lie ahead, many retailers have adapted well to the new environment, especially the focus on online sales. 
Aussies need to collectively take a deep breath ahead of the wind down of JobKeeper and JobSeeker schemes over the next six months. The hope is that stronger operating conditions and reduced support payments will encourage workers to re-join the job market. Today’s virus case numbers in Victoria also offer reasons to be positive.
As noted Australia continues to do well, but challenges lie ahead. Note other data today showed the New Zealand economy contracting by 12.2 per cent in the June quarter – much more than 7 per cent Aussie decline. Getting the right balance between health and economic issues will be critical in the months ahead. NSW is showing the way with the most jobs created or reinstated in the past three months while keeping its borders open for business and implementing effective virus testing and tracing to keep the virus in check.
CRAIG JAMES is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
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"Stunning" August jobs data as employment rose 111,000: CommSec

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Treasurer Scott Morrison noted only yesterday that "the rate of unemployment has been under 6 now for some months."
Not any more, based on the January figures released today.
But trend employment has continued to show strong growth, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today. 
"The trend shows that around 302,000 more people were employed in January 2016 than in January 2015 and full-time employment growth was a bit stronger than part-time growth over the year, increasing by 169,800 people," General Manager of ABS' Macroeconomic Statistics Division, Bruce Hockman said.
The increase in employment has contributed to the trend employment to population ratio rising over the year from 60.7 per cent to 61.4 per cent, while the unemployment rate decreased over the year from 6.2 percent to 5.8 percent.
Over the past month, trend employment increased by 19,800 persons to 11,909,900 persons, which equates to a monthly growth rate of 0.17 per cent. 
This growth rate was slightly above the monthly average over the past 20 years (0.15 per cent), and continues the recent trend in relatively strong employment growth.  
The trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.
The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed decreased by 7,900 in January 2016, while the number of persons unemployed increased by 30,200. 
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January 2016 was 6.0 percent (up 0.2 percentage points) and the seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate was unchanged at 65.2 percent.
The ABS seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs series increased by 10.9 million hours (0.7 per cent) to 1,656.0 million hours.
Westpac noted the rise in the unemployment rate to 6% may give the RBA a reason to pause and consider their assessment of the labour market. 
"In the most recent Statement on Monetary Policy they stated that the unemployment rate had fallen below 6% and was likely to stay there. 
"While one month is not a trend we would suggest that today’s print would make them a little less confident in that assessment," Westpac noted.
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Unemployment at 6 percent unexpectedly in early 2016

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian employment jumped a surprising 42,000 in May, sharply above market expectations for a 10,000 gain, lifting the annual pace from 1.7 percent to 2.0 percent.
This is the third month in a row of very strong jobs growth.
The gain was led by a 52,100 rise in full-time jobs following a decline last month, so the quality of jobs growth has improved but it can be volatile month to month. 
Reflecting the strength in jobs growth, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.5 percent when the market expected it to hold at 5.7 percent. This rate is the lowest in 4 years (since early 2013).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/15/image003.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/15/image003.png" alt=""> 
The third month in a row of very strong jobs growth may reflect sample rotation issues, which have been a regular cause of consternation with the labour market statistics.
And the jobs data does have a tendency to run hot and cold so we are now due for a weak patch.
But the May jobs data also brings the annual rate of jobs growth more into line with leading indicators of jobs growth (job ads, vacancies and hiring intentions from the NAB survey), which continue to point to solid jobs growth ahead albeit they have exaggerated actual jobs growth since 2014. See the next chart. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/15/image004.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/15/image004.png" alt="">
 
Whatever it is, strong jobs growth provides welcome news after a run of soft data for GDP growth, consumer confidence, retail sales and housing related indicators. 
The only problem of course is that underemployment remains very high at 8.8 percent leaving labour underutilisation high at 14.4 percent, albeit down from a recent high of 14.8 percent in February and this will act as an ongoing constraint on both wages growth and consumer spending.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/15/image012.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/15/image012.png" alt="">
Implications
The RBA no doubt breathed a sigh of relief with today’s jobs data showing unemployment falling to its lowest since early 2013. This will support the RBA in leaving interest rates on hold for now. Nevertheless with numerous other indicators remaining on the soft side – including overall economic growth, consumer spending, non-mining investment, indicators for housing construction and wages growth – our view remains that there is far more risk of another rate cut than a rate hike in the next 12 months. But to see a cut we will likely need to see a faltering in the jobs data.
It’s interesting to note that while the $A pushed up through $US0.76 on the back of the strong jobs data, the share market initially weakened a bit more on the news presumably not liking the idea of a higher $A or less chance of another RBA rate cut.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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