Immigration

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78183/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p><span>Considering all the aspects of life in Australia that are affected by population, it's remarkable that the nation doesn't have a national policy on it.</span></p>
<p>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the first article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</p>
<p>Australia lacks an overarching population policy or strategy. Over the years, multiple inquiries have recommended such a policy. Population policies the world over typically focus on births and migration.</p>
<p>As part of post-war reconstruction, Australia adopted a 2% population growth target. Mass immigration was a defining feature, and couples were called on to populate or perish. Immigration was successful, but women were big losers in the push for births.</p>
<p>The 1975 National Population Inquiry proved a significant moment in Australian demography. The inquiry found that Australia should not seek to influence population, but should anticipate and respond.</p>
<p>Population policy was revisited in the 1990s with the National Population Council. Its 1994 report found no optimal population size for Australia, but again called for a responsive population policy of preparedness.</p>
<p>Interest in sustainable population policy was renewed in 2010 following Kevin Rudd’s infamous endorsement of a “big Australia”. We even had a minister for population, Tony Burke, for about six months until the portfolio was expanded. Population was subsequently dropped from any ministerial title.</p>
<p>After an exhaustive inquiry, A Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia was released in 2011. This stopped short of recommending a population policy but removed any option of population limits. Change felt possible in shifting the narrative to a proactive endeavour concerning population matters, particularly evident in the National Urban Policy.</p>
<p>Despite such inquiries and recommendations to adopt a population policy, governments have so far resisted. Unsuccessful attempts at population policy can be understood in terms of difficulties in gaining political support and concerns about coercion.</p>
<p>But national population policy need not be coercive – unlike, for example, in India or China. Instead, it can be a series of targets and connected policy domains with oversight.</p>
<p>Presently, the policy landscape is disjointed. Parenting leave, family and childcare payments, and immigration are each somewhat responsive to population changes, but not prepared. Family payments have been shown not to increase birth rates.</p>
<h2>Births, deaths, migration – and taxes</h2>
<p>The intergenerational reports have been our only glimpse of responsiveness and preparedness. But these have increasingly been criticised for their political tone. Who could forget the Challenge of Change campaign?</p>
<p>What we know is that Australia’s population continues to age, so among the nation’s pressing issues is fewer taxpayers. The total age-related dependency ratio, of people aged over and under working age relative to the working-aged population, was 52 per 100 people in 2016.</p>
<p>While the child-dependency rate (0-14 year olds) is higher than the aged-dependency rate (people 65 and over), the rate of people aged less than 15 has steadily declined as the population aged 65 and over has driven increases in the so-called dependency burden.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/fedwrefedde.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/fedwrefedde.jpg" width="700" height="455"></p>
<p>The relative increase in people older than working age is increasing pressure on the economy and government budgets. While government spending on young people is substantial, the highest per person spending is among people aged 65 and over.</p>
<p>A robust workforce contributing income tax and services is essential to ensure current lifestyles are afforded to the young while also sustaining the public spending necessary for people over 65 years who have over their lives contributed to the nation.</p>
<p>With birth rates low and deaths increasing, natural increase is no longer driving Australia’s population. Immigration is increasingly relied on to offset the ageing of the workforce. Over half (54%) of Australia’s population growth is from net overseas migration.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/xdgfchgjhjn.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/xdgfchgjhjn.jpg" width="700" height="473"></p>
<h2>Preparing for an older population</h2>
<p>In a 2013 United Nations survey, the Australian government reported concerns about population ageing, a desire to increase the “too low” birth rate, but satisfaction with the level of net overseas migration. Interestingly, a preference for migration away from cities was also cited.</p>
<p>From current policy and discourse, you would not know these views were held. Most Australians also report a preference for the level of immigration to remain the same or be increased, contrary to sentiments we often hear.</p>
<p>Australia has time to prepare for, and make opportunities of, the challenges of an ageing population. Some countries are facing tough decisions now and it is interesting to watch the politics play out. What Japan, China and Germany show is that we need to take action now.</p>
<p>Insightful guides are in place already. South Australia has had a population strategy since 2004. Tasmania recently adopted one.</p>
<p>These state strategies focus on growth to curb economic downturn. What is important in these two cases is that both emphasise policy portfolio linkages, as well as evidence and reporting against targets without coercive measures.</p>
<h2>What is a sensible approach to population policy?</h2>
<p>A renewed, earnest and transparent population conversation is needed. With ever more reliance on immigration, we must go beyond the unhelpful pro-immigration versus pro-nationalism debate to consider our population prospects.</p>
<p>The key question is: how can Australia make opportunities of its demographic challenges?</p>
<p>Australia has the potential to be a global leader in innovative markets and research and development. An ageing population provides an interesting market opening; we just need to be smart about it. Without careful consideration, Australia will be merely a bystander in the increasingly competitive global market.</p>
<p>Policy connectedness should exist between portfolios. These include: health; housing; education, skills and training; employment; infrastructure; regional development; water and energy; environment; and migrant settlement.</p>
<p>We can invest more effectively in young people – our future workforce and economic lifeblood – if we consider a life-course approach to population dynamics. Family friendly, gender-equal workplaces will go a long way to ease the pressures of having children. Integral to this is affordable and accessible child care.</p>
<p>And establishing a ministerial portfolio overseeing population strategy would be a good start.</p>
<p><em>Liz Allen is a Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. she can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-allen-10193" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Australia doesn’t have a population policy – why? Liz Allen

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Tourists from greater China (China and Hong Kong) totalled 108,400 in February <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(mainland China 89,100, Hong Kong, 19,300), ahead of New Zealand (102,600).</span></p>
<p>Tourist arrivals from mainland China and Hong Kong rose to a record 1,326,076 over the past year (up 23.5 <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">percent over the year) and just shy of tourists from New Zealand (1,326,851 visitors over the past year).</span></p>
<p>Migration: Over the past year, net permanent and long-term arrivals to Australia totalled 259,710 – the <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">lowest level in nine years (February 2007).</span></p>
<p>Tourist arrivals fell by 2.7 percent in February. And departures fell from fresh record highs down by 3.3 <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">percent. T</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">he tourism data is important for airlines, travel groups, transport companies and retailers.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/7/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-07%20at%202.38.48%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2016/04/7/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-07%20at%202.38.48%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>The China tourist boom continues to pay dividends. The number of tourists to Australia from China and Hong <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Kong combined exceeded well over 1.3 million in the past year – and is closing fast on the visitors from New </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Zealand. In fact the difference is only 775 tourists. And with China and Hong Kong tourist numbers continuing to </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">grow at a 23 percent plus annual rate, there are more landmark results likely to be recorded over the next few </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">months. It is even more remarkable when you consider that just over four years ago Chinese tourist numbers </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">were around half those of New Zealand.</span></p>
<p>Clearly our number one tourist group is up for grabs with China and Hong Kong likely to take the top spot within a <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">month. The new winners from the China boom are tourist operators and retailers rather than mining companies </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">that benefitted in the first stage of the China boom.</span></p>
<p>Tourists from mainland China is fast closing in on 1.1 million in the past year, up 24 percent over the past year.</p>
<p>While some may fret about the slowdown in the Chinese industrial sector, the more forward-thinking analysts are <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">focussing on the boost to Australian retailers from increased spending by Chinese consumers and the growing </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">number of Chinese tourists.</span></p>
<p>The rebalancing continues to be taking place across the economy. No doubt the weaker Aussie dollar is helping <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">to alleviate some of the pressures for the weaker investment story. And from the Reserve Bank’s standpoint there </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">is nothing to do but to monitor the transitions to ensure that the process moves as smoothly as possible.</span></p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Overseas arrivals &amp; departures</p>
<p>Tourist arrivals  fell by 2.7 pe cent in February. And departures  fell from fresh record highs down by 3.3 per<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">cent. Arrivals are up 5.9 percent on the year with departures up 1.7 per cent.</span></p>
<p>In February, tourists from greater China (China and Hong Kong) totalled 108,400 (mainland China 89,100, Hong <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Kong, 19,300), ahead of New Zealand (102,600). Greater China passed NZ for the first time in September.</span></p>
<p>Over the past year a record 1,076,800 tourists came to Australia from China, up 23.6 percent over the year. <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Tourists from China and Hong Kong rose to a record 1,326,076 over the past year, up 23.5 percent over the </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">year. Tourists from New Zealand totalled 1,326,851 visitors over the past year, but were up just 6.6 percent.</span></p>
<p>Over the past year, net permanent and long-term arrivals  to Australia totalled 259,710 – the lowest level in nine <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">years (February 2007).</span></p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases data on overseas arrivals and departures  is produced monthly and <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">is an indicator of the health of the tourism sector. The figures are also useful in understanding spending trends </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">and tracking migrant numbers – an indicator with widespread implications for employment, housing and spending.</span></p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>Looking forward, not only will the fall in the Aussie dollar drive further tourism inflows, but it should provide an <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">additional degree of support to the domestic tourism sector. Over time, the cheaper currency should make it more </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">attractive to travel within Australia rather than overseas. Tourism has potential to join housing as a key driver of </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">the Australian economy over the coming year, especially if the Aussie dollar falls further.</span></p>
<p>In-bound migration is holding just shy of the lowest levels in nine years, meaning that there is greater scope for <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">unemployment to fall in the short-term before businesses have to start looking abroad for suitable staff.</span></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank will remain on the interest rate sidelines over the next few months.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/7/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-07%20at%202.47.23%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/7/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-07%20at%202.47.23%20PM.png" alt="" width="1129" height="366"></p>
<p><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em> </p>
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Chinese tourism boom, migration at nine-year lows: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78097/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The latest statistics show Australia's population growth in the last decade has been significantly higher than in other developed countries.</p>
<p>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the second article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</p>
<p>Population change has long been a topic of public debate in Australia, periodically escalating into controversy.</p>
<p>It is inextricably linked to debates about immigration levels, labour force needs, capital city congestion and housing costs, refugee intakes, economic growth in country areas and northern Australia, the “big versus smaller” Australia debate, and environmental pressures.</p>
<p>Views about the rate of population growth in Australia are numerous and mixed. At one end of the spectrum are those who are vehemently opposed to further population increases; at the other end are supporters of substantially higher population growth and a “very big” Australia.</p>
<p>Logically, population debates usually quote Australia’s demographic statistics. But there is value in comparing our population growth in the international context.</p>
<h2>Average growth rates compared globally</h2>
<p>Although growth rates have fluctuated considerably from year to year, statistics just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Australia’s population grew by 3.75 million between 2006 and 2016. This indicates an average annual growth rate of 1.7%.</p>
<p>As the chart below shows, this was quite high compared to other countries and global regions. Over the decade, other English-speaking countries such as New Zealand, Canada and the US all experienced growth rates lower than Australia’s. The world’s more developed countries in aggregate grew by an annual average of 0.3%.</p>
<p>The world’s population as a whole increased by an average of 1.2% per year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/6%20july%20expert.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/6%20july%20expert.jpg" width="700" height="571"></p>
<p>According to the UN Population Division, Australia ranked 90th out of 233 countries in terms of population growth rate over the decade. The countries or territories with higher growth rates were mostly less developed countries, particularly in Africa, and the oil-rich Gulf states. The only developed countries with faster rates of growth were Singapore, Luxembourg and Israel.</p>
<h2>Why Australia’s population growth rate is higher</h2>
<p>There are two main reasons for Australia’s high growth.</p>
<p>Net overseas migration (immigration minus emigration) is one major factor. It has been generating a little over half (56%) of population growth in recent years.</p>
<p>Demand for immigration – to settle permanently, work in Australia, or study here for a few years – is high, and there are many opportunities for people to move to Australia. In the 2015-16 financial year about 190,000 visas were granted to migrants and 19,000 for humanitarian and refugee entry. Temporary migrants included 311,000 student visas, 215,000 working holidaymaker visas and 86,000 temporary work (skilled) 457 visas.</p>
<p>Over the last five years, ABS figures show that immigration has averaged about 480,000 per year and emigration about 280,000. This puts annual net overseas migration at around 200,000.</p>
<p>This is high in international terms. UN Population Division data for the 2010-15 periodreveals Australia had the 17th-highest rate of net overseas migration of any country.</p>
<p>But it is not just overseas migration driving Australia’s population growth. High natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) also makes a substantial contribution. Natural increase has been responsible for a little under half (44%) of population growth in recent years (about 157,000 per year).</p>
<p>Australia has a relatively healthy fertility rate, which lately has averaged almost 1.9 babies per woman. We also enjoy one of the highest life expectancies in the world.</p>
<p>This combination of an extended history of net overseas migration gains, a long baby boom and a healthy fertility rate has resulted in Australia being less advanced in the population ageing transition than many other developed countries.</p>
<p>In particular, relatively large numbers of people are in the peak childbearing ages. This means that even if migration fell immediately to zero the population would still increase. Demographers call this age structure effect “population momentum”.</p>
<h2>Whether Australia’s population is growing too fast</h2>
<p>While Australia’s population growth rate is high in a global context, this does not necessarily mean its population is growing too fast. It all depends on your point of view.</p>
<p>It is important to stress that the overall population growth rate is just one aspect of Australia’s demography. A more comprehensive debate about the nation’s demographic trajectory should consider a broad range of issues, such as:</p>
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<p>population age structure (the numbers of people in different age groups);</p>
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<p>the health and wellbeing of a rapidly growing population at the highest ages;</p>
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<p>population distribution across the country;</p>
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<p>economic growth and development;</p>
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<p>the contributions of temporary workers and overseas students;</p>
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<p>appropriate infrastructure for the needs of the population; and</p>
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<p>environmental management and per-capita carbon emissions.</p>
</li>
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<p>Progress on issues such as healthy ageing, economic development,and environmental management depend on appropriate strategies to deal with these challenges. Total population numbers will often be relevant to the discussion, but they are only part of the equation.</p>
<p><em>Tom Wilson is a Principal Research Fellow at Charles Darwin University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-wilson-1717" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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How babies and migrants have contributed to Australia’s population growth: Tom Wilson

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<div>In Britain the topical political and media talk is of whether an "Australian-style" points based immigration system should be introduced, without any real clarity about what that would mean in practice.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Back Down Under it's often said that Australia's population growth must slow if the economy isn't creating enough jobs. This is essentially true for 457 visas, but does overlook the potential underlying demand for other visa classes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I previously looked at the newly relaxed international student visa rules which were made effective from 1 July, easing the rules for parents and guardians of primary school age students in Australia.<br><br>The recent election campaign also led to some potentially interesting shifts via proposed policies for...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>Parent visa rules</span></span></strong></div>
<p><span>In 2016, the percentage of Australians born overseas hit its highest level in 120 years at a massive 28 per cent. </span></p>
<div>
<span>Immigration policies understandably prefer immigrants to be of the young, working (or creating jobs through business), and tax-paying demographic.</span><br><span><br></span><span>Thus over the</span><span> 2015/16 Migration Programme year, parent visa places were capped as follows:</span>
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<ul>
<li><span><strong>1,500 places allocated to Parent (non-contributory) visas </strong></span></li>
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<span><strong>7,175 places allocated to Contributory Parent visas</strong></span> </li>
</ul>
<div><span>This means that your best chance of getting a parent visa in the last financial year was likely <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa/Fees" target="_blank">to pay</a> the prohibitive A$47,000 for a contributory visa - about A$100,000 for a couple! - while successful sponsorship for standard parent visas was extremely hard to come by. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>The unattractive alternative for parents wanting to join their families in Australia was to come in on a one year visitor visa, then leave the country for six months on each occasion. It would be a sore test of anyone's resolve to repeat this process over any meaningful period of time! </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>With some 6.8 million Australians having been born overseas the potential demand for parent visas is massive and growing, particularly from China and India. </span><br><br><span>I wouldn't believe anything a politician told me these days, but Google trends activity shows that </span><span>there has been an explosion of interest in parent visas since the last full Census in 2011.</span>
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<a href="/images/2016/09/06/PArents.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator">
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/PArents.jpg" alt=""> </div>
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<span>It's worth noting that previous rules weren't favourable to Chinese families, due to China's one child policy meaning that most parents naturally had only one child in Australia, which was an obvious mathematical hindrance in proving that the balance of your family lived here. </span><br><span><br></span><span>As at 30 June 2016 due to the caps there were 38,770 persons in the queue for standard parent visas (up 59 percent from last year), and another 5,160 persons for aged parent visas (up 28 percent). </span>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/09/06/Parent.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/09/06/Parent.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<p> </p>
<div>With standard parent visas presently capped at 1,500 per year, a queue of this size at 30 June equated to a ridiculous 25.8 year average wait time for an application to be processed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Election pledges</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>During a keenly contested election campaign the Australian Labor Party (ALP) announced plans to extend visitor visas to parents out to a far more palatable three years - with parents only being required to leave the country for four weeks at the end of each visa term and paying a $5,000 bond to ensure cover for medical and social services.<br><br>Surely a potential vote-winner for the ALP in the rapidly growing migrant communities, particularly in an era where so many young families also strive to be dual-income households. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As tends to be the way of these things, the Coalition's knee-jerk response was to announce a new parent visa plan itself, especially aimed at Chinese and Indian visitors (provided that new arrivals pay for health insurance and don't rely on the welfare state for health care, shamelessly piggybacking from the ALP proposals!) and allowing for continuous <strong>five year</strong> visitor visas. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that the number of overseas born Aussies is soon to pass 7 million, such a policy could potentially lead to hundreds of thousands of applicants for visitor visas from parents sponsored by Australian citizens, largely from ageing, non-English speakers hailing from Asia (which is not really the ideal target demographic for policy makers).<br><br>For this reason the Coalition's proposed policy denotes that parents of Australian citizens and permanent residents who have lodged a permanent parental visa application "may" be issued a five year visa "on a case-by-case basis". </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, this is an 'out'. Minister Dutton has the discretion to limit the number of visas issued and retains the right for policy to change course henceforth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>At this juncture there appears to be very little clarity surrounding what will happen with respect to parent visas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Coalition probably doesn't know the answer itself, election pledges doubtless being dreamed up on the hoof in response to the ALP's evidently popular proposal. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A point here relevant to the property markets is that if Australia does end up with an oversupply of thousands of apartments as many have forecast, there are levers that can be pulled to loosen immigration policies.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, a sceptic would say that if there's a policy that's always guaranteed to garner support from governing parties of either persuasion, it's one aimed at propping up ailing capital city housing markets. </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Immigration levers and the apartment oversupply scenario: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In case it wasn't already obvious from reading this blog, I absolutely love analysing data flows, and I particularly love it when the numbers "just work"!</span></p>
<p>Immigration and population growth is a great case in point.</p>
<p>There was a huge surge in immigration and population growth to more than 450,000 per annum through the mining boom, which naturally slowed as the peak was passed and unemployment began to rise.</p>
<p>I've been hinting on this blog for a while that population growth probably bottomed out in 2015 and by now is probably rising again, though I haven't had any hard data to back that up just yet.</p>
<p>This is partly because a better performing Australian economy is now attracting more migrants - annual employment growth of about +2.3 per cent has been far outpacing population growth of about +1.3 per cent, helping the unemployment rate to cascade into a 28 month downtrend.</p>
<p>And secondly because, largely unrecognised by commentary, a relaxation of visa rules will see tens of thousands of international students acquire permanent residency through the "back door" of higher education.</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Immigration rises again</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a significant +14 per cent year-on-year jump in the number of permanent and long term arrivals in February to 91,590, while the number of permanent and long term departues wasn't much changed at +31,700, for a net monthly inflow of just under 60,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I wouldn't read too much into one month of figures, granted, but mapping the data on a rolling annual basis showed a rise in net immigration for the first time in two years. </div>
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<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A3.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>The share of settlers from Asia over the year to February continued to increase to its highest ever level at +58.1 per cent, largely at the expense of arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record short term arrivals help rebalancing</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The lower dollar is very slowly but surely helping the rebalancing of the economy, with a record 7.55 million short term arrivals in the year to February.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is a wealthy nation when measured in per capita terms, yet provided the dollar stays low enough for long enough evenutally there could even come a time when short term arrivals match the number of our own overseas trips, as more Aussies opt to holiday at home, thereby boosting the economy. In the words of British Rail, "we're getting there".</div>
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<div>The annual number of short term arrivals from China, Hong Kong &amp; Taiwan (1.44 million) is poised to eclipse those from New Zealand &amp; Oceania imminently (1.49 million). </div>
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<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Education arrivals going vert!</span></strong><br><br><div>With the share of overseas born Aussies now at a 120 year high, more than 2 million persons per annum are venturing Down Under to visit friends and relatives, which in turn reinforces the strength in the number of visitors from Asia. </div>
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<div>The most significant demographic shift of all has been the near-exponential surge in education arrivals, which bolted to another new record high of 95,100 in February, taking the annual total past half a million for the first time on record. </div>
<div> </div>
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<br><div class="separator">This is extremely significant, as in the years ahead tens of thousands of these international students will become permanent residents, largely in the largest capital cities.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Well, it has certainly been a while coming, but February saw the first rebound in immigration in a couple of years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In truth, population growth never really slowed that much in the largest capital cities anyway - still chugging along at a thunderous 80,000 to 90,000 per annum - the slowdown was more of a resources and a regional thing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any case from observing the ABS data and from mapping out official government forecasts it looks as though population growth probably bottomed out at around 310,000 per annum, and is set to increase to about 340,000 in 2016, and to beyond 400,000 per annum before the end of the decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps just as relevantly, it is important to note that the population growth is becoming increasingly centralised and focussed on a handful of capital cities, a trend which will only accelerate thanks to Asian and international student migration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Population growth to rebound in 2016: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title">
<a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/record-high-immigration-to-sydney"></a><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Immigration ramps up</span></strong> </h3>
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<div>The natural increase in Australia's population slowed a bit over the 2017 financial year as the number of deaths increased. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However net immigration from overseas boomed by +27 per cent from +193,000 to 245,500, so you can comprehensively chalk that one up as a good call for this blog page (a year ago much of the idle talk of was population growth dropping because of a slowing economy). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is the planet's sixth largest country so this isn't such a big deal in itself, but the concentration of the immigration will raise a few eyebrows, as we shall see below. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>Over the financial year Australia's population grew by +388,100 or +1.6 per cent to 24.6 million by the end of June 2017. </div>
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<br>The Aussie population will pass the 25 million landmark in 2018.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The MEL-SYD magnet</span></strong><br><br><div>Net overseas migration into the two most populous states rose to the highest level on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales (+98,600) and Victoria (+86,800) accounted for the great bulk of immigration, with new arrivals overwhelmingly clustering into the capital cities of Greater Sydney and Melbourne respectively. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Immigration into Queensland is also picking up the pace, from a cyclical nadir of +18,300 over the year to September 2015 up to +31,100 in the 2017 financial year, with the trend pointing north as the economy improves. </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>Just as significantly for Queensland, the state is now pulling Sydneysiders up and away from New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Net interstate migration to the Sunshine State hit a decade-high +5,050 in the June quarter, taking the rolling annual total up to +17,400, surpassing Victoria to notch the biggest draw of any state. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is positive news for Brisbane, while unlike the most populous states Queensland has other worthy growth hubs, including Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>South Australia lost -5,900 residents interstate, and Western Australia lost -11,700, although in each case the bottom appears to be in. </div>
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<br><span>The big migratory trend in 2018 will clearly be from New South Wales up to Queensland. </span><br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Totting up the figures New South Wales (+121,800), Victoria (+144,400), and Queensland (+79,600) accounted for 89 per cent of population growth in the 2017 financial year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria's population growth rate of +2.3 per cent exceeds the rate at which appropriate new accommodation can realistically be built, let alone the availability of new land supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand population growth rate was considerably weaker than the national average in Western Australia (+21,400 or +0.8 per cent), South Australia (+10,500 or +0.6 per cent), Tasmania (+3,300 or +0.8 per cent), and the Northern Territory (+400 or +0.1 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Last, but certainly not least, the Australian Capital Territory added +6,800 or +1.7 per cent to its population, which will help to fill up all those new apartments. </div>
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<div class="separator">
<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </span><a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a><span> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a><span>.</span>
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Record high immigration to Sydney and Melbourne: Pete Wargent 

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<p><strong>EXPERT OBSERVER </strong></p>
<div><span>Permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia totalled 844,960 over the year to November, up 2 per cent from a year earlier, but just a notch lower over the past two months. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Net of departures, total arrivals were around 297,000, implying population growth of around 380,000 or 1½ per cent after accounting for natural population growth (births minus deaths). </span></div>
<div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div><span><strong>Asian century</strong><br><br><span>Tourism was still romping along until November, on the back of the Asian century.</span></span></div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
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<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
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<div><span>And short-term international education arrivals hit yet another record high at 619,100 over the year to November. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
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<div><span> </span></div>
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<div>Unfortunately, the raging bushfires will blast a $1 billion hole in the tourism figures, blowing yet another hole into the ailing Aussie economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in short-term arrivals over the year to November was driven by Victoria (up 6 per cent year-on-year) and Tasmania (up 8 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
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<div><span> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/1/20/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div><span><span>There's been a fairly sharp drop in short-term arrivals from Hong Kong as the unrest and demonstrations continued. </span></span></div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div><span><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/1/20/a5.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </span></div>
<div><span><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/1/20/a5.jpg" alt=""></span></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>There's less tourism from Hong Kong, but plenty of capital is winding its way back to Australia.</span></div>
<p><em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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Bushfires will blast a $1 billion hole in tourism: Pete Wargent 

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<p>Annual net permanent and long term arrivals into Australia increased marginally in September to +267,500, some way up from the nadir of +262,800 in June. </p>
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<br><div>A significant driver of the rebound has been permanent settlers from Asia, of which there were 74,300 over the year to September, or 56.6 per cent of the total. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By contrast, permanent settlers from New Zealand, and from Europe with their weakened currencies, continued to wane significantly.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">8 million &amp; beyond</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rebalancing quietly continues, with the number of short term departures ticking a notch lower for a third consecutive month in September, while short term arrivals smashed new records by a huge margin at 709,700 in the month (+11.7 per cent over the year).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart therefore dovetails into a neat 'pincer' formation, as short term arrivals flew beyond 8 million for the first time, and the pace of increase approaching two decade highs!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/15/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><img src="/images/2016/11/15/A5.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>No surprises for guessing that the increase was driven by the 1.58 million visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, which even now are still increasing at an annual pace of more than 20 per cent. Extraordinary!</div>
<div> </div>
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<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/15/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>There has also been a huge lift in tourism from the United States, rising at an annual pace of around +18 percent. </div>
<br><div>While tourism is of course a major driver, the role of international education should not be underestimated with a record 506,200 education arrivals over the year to September (+12.7 percent).</div>
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<div> </div>
<div>While there are inevitably some back-and-forth trips within these figures, as an indicator this chart matches up quite closely with enrolments data which have also suggested rapid growth in international student numbers, particularly from China and India.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Quite a solid set of numbers across the board here, with record short term arrivals and increasing immigration. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Overall, this points to annual population growth tracking at around +350,000, but note how population growth is being driven less by 'permanent' arrivals and more by those arriving on other types of visa. </div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Immigration turns up a notch: Pete Wargent

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<div>There was a slight increase in the number of permanent settlers in Australia in the year to June, according to today's ABS figures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most come from Asia, at 58.4 per cent in the year to June.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only 410 Brit settlers arrived in the month of June - crashing down from a record 2,560 in August 2007 to the lowest figure in the history of the data series. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not so many Kiwis are making the permanent journey across the Tasman either right now.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With departures up over the past year, net permanent and long term immigration fell quite sharply to +262,800, the lowest figure since March 2007.</div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>It's another type of casualisation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just as there are more part time jobs these days than there used to be, there are more part time migrants!<br><br>Despite the slowdown, as I explored here the headcount in Australia is probably up by more than 400,000 over the last year, including a surge in international students.</div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record visitors</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>The lower dollar has resulted in an epic boom in short term arrivals, to yet another all-time high of 7.84 million.<br><br>And this figure is accelerating, up by 10 per cent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, the downward pressure impact of the lower dollar on short term departures (up to 9.67 million) may be beginning to fade. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A3.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Most short term visitors come for holidays (3.91 million) or to visit friends and relatives (2.04 million).</div>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div> </div>
<div>No surprises that June saw yet another monthly record in the number of visitors from China and Hong Kong,</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been a stunning 21 per cent increase in annual visitors from China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, to a record 1.54 million (a rip-snorting 13-fold increase from 1991). </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A4.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>Meanwhile 469,800 education arrivals in the year to June was 14 per cent higher than one year ago.</span><br><br><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Recall that the visa rules for international students were relaxed effective 1 July, so these figures will likely accelerate in the second half of 2016.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<div>As you were, really.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fewer long term and permanent migrants to Australia - particularly from the United Kingdom and New Zealand - but record short term arrivals and ever more Chinese visitors (with more to come when the changes to student visa rules kick in as the year progresses). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record Chinese visitors again: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Despite election talk of reducing the permanent intake into Australia, any prospective slowdown has been offset by an increase in temporary visa issuance. </p>
<div>The big drivers have been seen in student visas, bridging visas, and other visitors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2dolV8p17RI/Xe1r4gkH2gI/AAAAAAAAzRw/IeetJKg5qFgWXm5cF3qROpTq3BnHYzE9ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>In particular, student visas have exploded into Sydney and Melbourne.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hYmdWqZ2KKo/Xe1stn5KXPI/AAAAAAAAzSA/UgSES-Ow_400t_FzvJt1VF7WbUecawliQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="222" data-original-height="258" data-original-width="743"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>The total number of temporary visas hit a record high 2.3 million in Q3 2019.<br><br></p>
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<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>Temporary visas on issue have fairly consistently increased by about 100,000 per annum over the past six years, from 1.7 million in 2013 to a record high of 2.3 million as at September 2019. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">This means that population growth, when including temporary and permanent immigration, and the natural population increase (births minus deaths), is running at close to 400,000 per annum.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>I recently <a href="https://gonextlevelwealth.com.au/the-stars-never-align-perfectly-2-minute-video/" target="_blank">discussed here</a> that while population growth can drive housing prices, it isn't a precondition for rising prices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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