Housing Growth

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
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The Bureau of Statistics reports that Australian home prices fell by 0.7 per cent in the March quarter to stand 2.0 per cent higher over the year – the weakest annual growth rate since September 2012.
Record homes in South Australia: At the end of March there were 40,600 more homes than at the end of December across Australia.  The number of homes in South Australia increased by 2,700 to 776,500 in the March quarter – the largest increase since the data series began in December 2011.  However, the number of homes in NSW increased by 7,800 to 3,096,900 in the March quarter – the smallest increase in 4 years. 
Consumer confidence: The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 0.7 per cent to 122.1. Confidence is up by 9.2 per cent over the year and above the average of 113.9 since 2014 and average of 112.9 since 1990. Views on family finances are the best in 18 months at 132.5.
Reserve Bank Board minutes: The minutes from the June 5 Board meeting were issued. The Board’s neutral policy bias remains intact with a period of record low interest rate stability ahead for the foreseeable future. It noted that “recent data had been consistent with the Bank's central forecast for GDP growth to pick up to be above 3 per cent by the end of 2018.”
Home price data is important for retailers, especially those focussed on consumer durables. The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. The Reserve Bank Board minutes provides guidance on interest rate settings.
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What does it all mean?
The rebalancing of the Aussie housing market continues. Today’s release from the Bureau of Statistics has been superseded by more timely monthly data issued on home prices by property analytics company, CoreLogic.
The Sydney and Melbourne markets have both slowed with prices falling in both cities. Data from CoreLogic confirms that national home prices have fallen by 0.4 per cent over the year to May – the first annual fall since October 2012. 
But it’s not all bad news. Perth and Darwin home prices appear to have bottomed and modest price appreciation has been recorded in Adelaide, Brisbane and Canberra over the three months to May. And Hobart’s economic renaissance and strong population growth is pushing-up home prices.  
Regional areas are also stand-out performers. The Melbourne and Sydney commuter belts of Geelong, Ballarat, Southern Highlands and Newcastle have recorded annual growth in property prices of 5-10 per cent to May.
The Reserve Bank is continuing to monitor developments, particularly around slowing housing credit growth, elevated household debt and the potential for tighter bank lending standards.
And the slowdown in the residential property market has seen the annual growth rate of the number of homes in Australia decelerate to 18-month lows in the March quarter. The stock of NSW homes rose by the slowest amount in four years. But it’s a different story in South Australia. The number of homes grew by the most on record during the March quarter.
What do the figures show?
Residential property prices
The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its Residential Property Price indexes for the March quarter.
“The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 0.7 per cent in the March quarter 2018. The index rose 2.0 per cent through the year to the March quarter 2018.
The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Sydney (-1.2 per cent), Melbourne (-0.6 per cent), Perth (-0.9 per cent), Brisbane (-0.6 per cent) and Darwin (-1.1 per cent) and rose in Hobart (+4.3 per cent), Adelaide (+0.5 per cent) and Canberra (+0.9 per cent).
Annually, residential property prices rose in Hobart (+14.1 per cent), Melbourne (+6.2 per cent), Canberra (+3.8 per cent), Adelaide (+2.6 per cent) and Brisbane (+1.6 per cent) and fell in Darwin (-6.5 per cent), Perth (-1.5 per cent) and Sydney (-0.5 per cent).
“The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was $6,913,636.6 million at the end of the March quarter 2018, falling $22,498.3 million over the quarter.”
“The mean price of residential dwellings fell $5,100 to $687,700 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 40,600 to 10,052,600 in the March quarter 2018.”
CommSec estimates that the number of people per home increased from 2.47 in the December quarter to 2.48 in the March quarter.
The number of homes in South Australia increased by 2,700 to 776,500 in the March quarter – the largest increase since the data series began in December 2011. 
The number of homes in NSW rose by just 7,800 in the March quarter – the smallest lift in 4 years.
Consumer Sentiment
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 0.7 per cent to 122.1. Confidence is up by 9.2 per cent over the year and above the average of 113.9 since 2014 and average of 112.9 since 1990. 
Three components of the index decreased last week:
- The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +9.1 to +3.8;
- The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +28.5 to +32.5;
- Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +15.3 to +10.9; 
- Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +18.0 to +17.0;  
- The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +44.0 to +46.3.  
- The measure of inflation expectations two years ahead increased to 4.8 per cent – the equal highest level in 2½ years - up from 4.4 per cent in the previous week.
Reserve Bank March Board minutes:
Last paragraph: “The low level of interest rates was continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in the period ahead in reducing unemployment and returning inflation to the target was therefore expected, although this progress was likely to be gradual.”
On the labour market: “Forward-looking indicators of labour demand had continued to point to employment growth increasing to above-average rates in coming months.. The ratio of job vacancies to the number of unemployed workers had remained well below levels seen a decade earlier, which also signalled spare capacity in the labour market.”
On demographics: “The composition of net overseas migration had affected the age structure of the population. As a result, Australia's median age and old-age dependency ratios were projected to increase by less than those of other advanced economies, despite a relatively high life expectancy. This would make Australia one of the youngest populations within this group of countries.” 
On inflation and wages growth: “Inflation remained low and was likely to remain so for some time, reflecting slow growth in labour costs and strong competition in the retail sector. However, a gradual pick-up in inflation to be above 2 per cent was still expected as the economy strengthens and wages growth increases.” 
<h1>What is the importance of the economic data?</h1>
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides quarterly data on residential prices. The figures provide further perspectives on the state of the housing purchase sector.
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
The Reserve Bank remains patient. According to the Board, the slowdown in the Aussie housing market through macroprudential measures and tighter credit standards “has been helpful in containing the build-up of risk on household balance sheets”. And policy makers expect the“tightening [of lending standards] to be modest”. 
While there are a combination of reasons for slowing property prices in Sydney and Melbourne, including tighter government and lender restrictions on foreign and interest-only investment, the overall stock of homes being built in NSW is growing at a slower rate. Modest additions to supply combined with strong jobs growth, firm population growth and record low interest rates should cushion against a significant market downturn. The Reserve Bank stressed in its minutes that “Information from the Bank's liaison program suggested that demand for detached houses had remained strong, while off-the-plan apartment sales had slowed considerably as a result of weaker investor and foreign demand.” 
Nevertheless, household consumption remains a key uncertainty for the monetary policy outlook. The recent uplift in the Aussie sharemarket is timely as it appears that wealth accumulation from residential housing has peaked for now.
Consumer confidence is just below the 4-year highs last seen in January. Petrol prices have fallen over the past two weeks, while winter department store sales, solid economic growth data and possible personal tax cuts have lifted spirits. Jobs growth is still strong, but goods prices remain low. Interest rates won’t lift in the near-term.
And the Aussie sharemarket is lifting after a period of relative underperformance to its global peers. The ASX200 index is now up by 1.0 per cent year-to-date, broadly in-line with the US Dow Jones index. So it’s little wonder that Aussie household views on family finances are the best in 18 months. Total returns from shares should continue to outperform residential property.  
CommSec expects interest rates to be unchanged until at least February 2019.
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Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Record increase in South Australia homes as NSW slowest growth in four years: CommSec

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GUEST OBSERVER
The media recently reported that the Australian housing market had ‘peaked in winter’. While Sydney – the market leader – is coming into a downswing, it is not useful to aggregate the market this way.
Historically, the different dwelling markets around the country have not been synchronised. In fact, assuming the economy was performing steadily, the Melbourne and Brisbane markets would be yet to experience peak capital growth before slowing in late 2016. However, economic uncertainly and lending restrictions may prematurely curb growth in these markets.
November 2015 Summary
<a href="/images/2016/01/14/Table_1_November_Summary_v2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/14/Table_1_November_Summary_v2.jpg" alt="" width="768" height="558">
Growth in Melbourne house market is 12.87% in the year to November, which is up from 11.03% in the year to October.
There is a large growth disparity between Melbourne houses and units. Melbourne units performed steadily with annualised capital growth of 6.13%, however values dropped in the month of November (-0.37%). With a difference of 6.74 percentage points between annualised growth in houses and units, Melbourne’s house and unit markets show the largest growth disparity Residex has on record. This is presumably due to large levels of stock in the unit market relative to demand. Graph 1 presents the growth trend.
Click to enlarge
<img src="/images/2016/01/14/Graph_1_Melbourne_Trend.jpg" alt="">
Annual sales figures for Melbourne indicate that houses are the more desired dwelling purchase. Melbourne houses saw the largest volume of sales in the year to November, with 52,530 sales.
Annual growth in Sydney houses was again significant – with values jumping an enormous 20.53%. However, growth in the November quarter was just 2.93% – the lowest result since July 2014 – and while these figures are still very strong, they indicate a clear slowing in this market. Sydney units have also slowed dramatically, with growth for the month of November at just 0.55%.
Despite the slowing of growth in Sydney, 2016 is unlikely to see a market crash due to strong population migration in New South Wales and Sydney feeding dwelling demand. Even a market correction of 10% would still leave Sydney home owners well off after the latest housing boom.
Interestingly, the regional markets of Lake Macquarie, Newcastle and Wollongong have seen enormous capital growth, which is most likely a result of spill over as individuals and businesses seek cheaper rent outside the Sydney Metropolitan.
Dwelling markets across Western Australia continue to struggle. Perth houses fell in value by 2.83% for the year and rents fell a significant 5.43%.
Many unit markets across the country have seen a fall in value in November, as can be seen in Table 1. Dwelling markets usually reflect broader trends in the economy.
Brisbane was expected to be a strong performer in 2015. While the market remained in positive growth, it was very slow and subdued for the Brisbane Metropolitan as a whole. Select markets such as those in close proximity to the CBD and in the south-east performed more strongly.
Continued commodity declines have presented enormous challenges for the mining sector and state government revenues. It is for this reason that care should be taken when considering the economic output of the Adani Mine project and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects in Queensland. In particular, it should not be assumed that these projects will see long term high capital growth in nearby dwelling markets. This is an important takeaway from recent commodity price crashes.
Indian company Adani is set to go ahead with a coal mine and connecting rail line in Central Queensland’s Galilee Basin. The Queensland Land Court ruled Adani should receive mining leases, however the court agreed that the benefits of the $16 billion project are overstated.
Adani claimed the project would create 10,000 jobs annually from 2024. This has since been revised down to 1,464 full time equivalent jobs. Furthermore, the $22 billion in mining royalties anticipated from the coal mine was based on inflated estimates of the commodity, meaning this figure will be lower.
Challenges also exist for prospects around LNG projects in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
By the time these projects go into operation, the LNG market is forecast to be in a supply glut of approximately 20-30 million tonnes through to 2018, according to Bernstein Research. Oversupply in LNG is partially due to the increase in participating suppliers but also slowed economic growth, especially from China. However, the LNG projects across Australia largely have supply contracts already secured with set prices.
<h2>Economic Outlook</h2>
The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook was delivered by Scott Morrison. The government has increased the budget deficit to $37.4 billion over 2015-16, which is greater than the May budget outlook by $2.3 billion.
Despite the budget deficit, Australia still maintains a sustainable level of debt to GDP[1]. So long as debt is at a sustainable level, it is not thought to have a large effect on economic growth relative to other factors such as investment in education.
Employment in Australia seems to be moving in a positive direction, which has surprised many (including me).
Capital investment and commodities have not performed well this year, leading to a huge reduction in revenue for businesses and government alike, and thousands of people losing work.
However, employment and participation in job searching has improved over 2015, which can be seen in Graph 2.
<a href="/images/2016/01/14/Graph_2_Employment-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/14/Graph_2_Employment-1.jpg" alt="">
The dark blue line indicates where trends in employment began to move favourably. In a recent interview with the Australian Financial Review (AFR), Governor Glenn Stevens suggested this may be because the sectors behind employment growth may not require large amounts of capital investment, such as services, tourism and hospitality.
Uber is one such example of an emerging service where little large scale capital investment is needed, especially from drivers. Uber reportedly employs 15,000 people in Australia.
As a result, Stevens has revised down expected jobless figures and the need to further reduce the cash rate.
However, I would argue that the nature of employment is not enough to provide a wealth effect that would fuel demand strong enough for housing. Wage growth remained at 2.3% in the September quarter and it is likely that a significant portion of new found employment would be part time work.
As documented thoroughly this year, unaffordability persists across the country in both ownership and rent of dwellings. Unaffordability, combined with higher interest rates and low wage growth means that we probably can’t expect the exceptional growth seen this year in any of the major capital city markets in 2016.
Australia’s economy still faces many challenges before returning to strong GDP growth, and many dwelling markets across the country are also likely to see slowed or negative growth in 2016. However, property is a long term game and we have very diverse markets and opportunities throughout the country. I will aim to highlight more of these unique opportunities in 2016.
Eliza Owen is the market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au. She can be contacted <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au" target="_blank">here.</a>
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