Household Budgets

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">unleaded petrol fell 3 cents per litre to 113.9 cents per litre in the week to April 24.</span></p>
<p>The national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">102.4 cents per litre, down 1.5 cents per litre on a week ago and still up 6.7 cents a litre on the lows set in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">mid-February.</span></p>
<p>The petrol figures have implications for retailers, especially petrol marketing groups.</p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>The latest data on petrol prices confirms that - contrary to popular belief and media reports – pump prices do not <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">tend to rise ahead of a long weekend. Motorists enjoyed the cheapest petrol ahead of ANZAC Day in 11 years, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">with the national average price falling by 3 cents a litre.</span></p>
<p>As always, competitive factors, the discounting cycles and variable lags between wholesale and retail prices <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">determine how capital cities and regional centres fare. But at present the key driver of pump prices is the </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">variations in the discounting cycle across the capital cities. In Sydney, prices have been falling for 18 days and in</span></p>
<p>Melbourne prices have been falling for almost four weeks, with petrol at around $1.08 a litre in both capital cities.</p>
<p>Brisbane prices have been falling for a fortnight and are closer to $1.14 a litre. Adelaide prices spiked a week ago <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">and have started to drift lower. Adelaide motorists would benefit by holding off from filling up the family vehicle.</span></p>
<p>Not only have global oil prices eased in the past week but the Aussie dollar has held up relatively well – ensuring <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">that any saving in regional oil prices should get passed through to the bowser within the next fortnight.</span></p>
<p>In the short term, oil production disruptions in Kuwait and speculation of a further lift in potential supply by major <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">oil producers will keep oil markets volatile. CBA commodity analysts expect oil to potentially drift to US$30-35 a </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">barrel in the near term.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Importantly cheap fuel continues to keep inflation contained and the Reserve Bank will keep an implicit easing </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">bias in play over the next six months.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.57.20%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.57.20%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Petrol prices</p>
<p>According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">3 cents per litre to 113.9 cents per litre in the week to April 24. The metropolitan petrol price fell by 4.9 cents to </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">113.6 cents per litre while the regional price rose by 0.9 cents to 114.5 cents per litre.</span></p>
<p>The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell by 0.2 cents to 111.8 cents per litre in the week to <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">April 24. Last week the metropolitan price fell by 0.3 cents to 110.6 c/l, while the regional average price was down </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">0.1 cents to 112.8 c/l.</span></p>
<p>Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down 9.3 <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">cents to 108.5 c/l), Melbourne (down 6.2 cents to 111.5 c/l), Brisbane (down 7.8 cents to 118.9 c/l), Adelaide (up </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">6.7 cents to 124.4 c/l), Perth (up 1.2 cents to 111.5 c/l), Darwin (down by 0.3 cents to 115 c/l), Canberra (down </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">0.7 cents to 115.9 c/l) and Hobart (unchanged at 117.4 c/l).</span></p>
<p>Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 102.4 cents per litre, <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">down 1.5 cents per litre on a week ago and still up 6.7 cents a litre on the lows set in mid-February. The terminal </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">gate diesel price stands today at 98.5 cents a litre, up 0.2 cents a litre over the week.</span></p>
<p>Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$1.75 or 3.2 per cent to US$56.10 a barrel. However <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">prices eased yesterday to US$55.30 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">$2.13 a barrel (0.2 per cent) to $72.61 a barrel or 45.7 cents a litre. Yesterday prices eased to $71.73 a barrel or </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">45.1 cents a litre.</span></p>
<p>MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 108.1c; Melbourne 107.5c; Brisbane <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">113.7c; Adelaide 119.4c; Perth 120.5c; Canberra 107.5c; Darwin 113.8c; Hobart 117.8c.</span></p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">MotorMouth.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.59.05%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.59.05%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>Lower oil prices may add further downward pressure on energy stocks and increase volatility across <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">sharemarkets. However cheap fuel is a positive for a number of sectors including transport and logistics.</span></p>
<p>Filling up the car with petrol is the single biggest weekly purchase for most families. So the savings being reaped <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">at the petrol bowser are serving to boost discretionary spending in areas such as cafes, restaurants and takeaway </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">outlets.</span></p>
<p><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></p>
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Cheapest ANZAC Day petrol in 11 years: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<div>Another data series which doesn't really fit the narrative of tight or stretched household budgets, as trend new car sales moved to their highest ever level in July 2015. </div>
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<div>This follows on from recently compiled Reserve Bank data which shows that mortgage redraw buffers and offset account balances are also at their highest ever level as household enjoy low interest rates and cheaper repayments.</div>
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<div>Of course, it often doesn't feel this way at the individual household level - interviews with the world's wealthiest people have shown that financial stress never entirely goes away whatever the true state of one's personal finances.</div>
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<div><span>The Reserve Bank itself has mused<span>:</span></span></div>
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<div><em>"The continued concern about living cost pressures might arise because the standard of living that can be sustainably afforded by households’ incomes remains lower than many would like."</em></div>
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<div>Certainly although wages growth is soft at +2.3 per cent, this has to date at least remained well in excess of the increase in the cost of living for employee households.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record new motor sales </span></strong></div>
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<div>In any event it was another monster month for new motor vehicle sales at a seasonaly adjusted 96,388 which saw trend sales reach an all-time record high in July 2015, having increased by 3.7 per cent over the past year. </div>
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<div>The result was all the remarkable given the weak data evident in the resources states, a slowing rate of population growth, as well as the fact that the Aussie dollar has depreciated sharply in recent times. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><span>Looking at the "original" data on a rolling annual basis we can see that more than 1.13 million new vehicle sales have been recorded over the past year, while the 588,619 units sold over the past six months is a record for any half year period in Australia's history.</span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
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<div><span>It was another prodigious month for Sports Utitlity (SUV) sales at more than 34,000 seasonally adjusted from fewer than 30,000 one year ago (a +14 per cent year-on-yearincrease), the annualised number of SUV sales climbing inexorably to beyond 380,000.</span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
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<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/19/MV3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong></div>
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<div>New South Wales has been recording a number of king-sized seasonally adjusted results in recent months, firing total new motor vehicle sales to their highest ever level in the Premier State. </div>
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<div>On a rolling annual basis new motor vehicle sales are rising in Queensland too, but are now looking somewhat peaky in Victoria after a fine run. </div>
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<div>Sales have declined moderately in South Australia over the past year, and fairly sharply in Western Australia as the mining construction boom comes undone. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/08/19/MV4.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State trends</span></strong></div>
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<div>The trend year-on-year increase in sales was particular strong in each of the most populous states, those being New South Wales (+8.1 per cent), Victoria (+3.4 per cent) and Queensland (+6.6 per cent).</div>
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<div>While somewhat immaterial at the national level, the surprise package is Tasmania with a trend +13 per cent year-on-year increase in units sold. </div>
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<div>The strength of the data in the three most largest states has more than offset the weakness in South Australia (-4.2 per cent) and the resources-impacted Western Australia (-11 per cent) and Northern Territory (-1.4 per cent).</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Stretched household budgets or not? Pete Wargent

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What's up (and down) with households? RBA assistant governor Luci Ellis

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<p><span>The value of new lending commitments to households fell 3.7 per cent in March 2019, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures on new lending to households and businesses.</span><br><br><span>The fall in lending to households in March follows a 2.2 per cent rise in February 2019.</span></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/13/Lending1.jpg" alt=""><br><br><span>ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman said all components of new lending to households were weaker in March, "more than offsetting a bounce in lending activity seen in February.”</span><br><br><span>“There were large falls in the value of lending for owner occupier dwellings in seasonally adjusted terms in both New South Wales (-5.7 per cent) and Queensland (-5.3 per cent) in March, after rises in both states the previous month" he said.</span></p>
<p>Nationally, lending for investment dwellings also contracted further in March, with the series down 25.9 per cent (seasonally adjusted) compared to March 2018. The level of new lending for investment dwellings is at its lowest level since March 2011. </p>
<p>While nationally there was a fall in the number of loans to owner occupier first home buyers (-0.5 per cent) in March, in a similar pattern to recent months this fall was again much less than the drop in the number of loans to owner occupier non-first home buyers (-3.3 per cent). </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/13/March-ABS.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>After rises in January and February, lending to households for personal finance excluding refinancing fell 11.2 per cent in March, seasonally adjusted.<br><br>In trend terms, the value of new lending commitments to businesses fell 2.0 per cent in March. The ABS noted all components of business lending remained subdued.</p>
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