House Market

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Australia's housing markets continue to see price slippage in early 2018. The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, dipped another 0.2% in March, the fifth consecutive monthly decline with prices nationally now down 1.4% from their Oct peak. Annual price growth slowed to 0.8%, a new low since the price correction in 2011-12. Note that data updates are now clear of holiday distortions with seasonal factors essentially neutral in the March month.
The dwelling-type breakdown continues to show more pronounced weakness for houses, prices down 0.2% in the month and barely up 0.2%yr. Unit prices were again flat nationally in March with annual price growth somewhat firmer at 2.6%yr.
Price weakness continues to be concentrated in Sydney, where the annual rate of decline dropped to –2.1%yr after dipping into negative last month. The detail shows the epicentre of the slowdown is houses (–3.8%yr) and particularly those in the upper end of the market, (–6.5%yr for the top 25% of properties by value). Note that these segments outperformed significantly through the upturn with prices still showing better gains over the last two years than the wider market. Sydney unit prices have been much firmer across the board annual price growth remaining positive.
Melbourne is starting to see a more material slowing although at 5.3%yr, annual price growth remains comfortably above that in the other major markets. Price growth remains particularly strong at the lower end of the Melbourne market (+12.9%yr for the bottom 25% of properties by value).
Price growth was coming from much weaker starting points across the other capital cities and showed more muted slowdowns in 2017. Annual price growth has dipped back to 1.3%yr in Brisbane and 1.7%yr in Adelaide. The pace of price declines has eased a touch to 2.4%yr in Perth although stabilisation remains elusive.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/4/DWELLING%201.jpg" alt="">
Performances vary widely across the smaller capitals, Hobart posting a strong 13%yr gain but price gains more moderate in Canberra (+2.9%yr) and struggling to pull out of a sharp multi-year correction in Darwin (+1%mth but down –7.5%yr). Regional areas have been uneven as well, posting 4-5%yr price gains in NSW, Vic and Tas but about flat in Qld, dipping in SA and falling at a 5%yr pace in regional WA.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/4/DWELLING%202.jpg" alt="">
Overall, the March update is another soft read. While the pace of declines nationally may not be accelerating there are few convincing signs that they are moderating.   Indeed, if anything there are signs that price slippage may be extending to a broader range of markets.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/4/DWELLING%203.jpg" alt=""> 
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Australian dwelling price slippage continues

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GUEST OBSERVER
Despite predictions of ‘doom and gloom’ by some property pundits, a buoyant Melbourne housing market is leading to healthy long-term investment options for savvy home buyers.
Solid auction results, strong population growth (the highest in Australia), good economic growth and APRA’s decision to lift home-loan restrictions on investor lending make the Melbourne housing market far less risky than its alternatives.
While this appears at odds with recent research by one real estate and investment group, which is predicting unit prices to fall less than 5% and house prices to ‘flatline’, RiskWise’s most recent <a href="https://www.riskwiseproperty.com.au/pdfs/ResidentialPropertyRisksOpportunitiesReport.pdf" target="_blank">Residential Opportunities &amp; Risks Report</a>, clearly shows that the housing market in Melbourne is in a far more healthy position than many experts believed.
Auction clearance rates – which are a strong short-term indicator to buyer sentiment – remain, overall, solid, in the beginning of 2018, particularly considering the end of the housing boom, negative media coverage and the beginning of autumn. 
The city enjoys strong population growth and exceptional overseas and interstate migration, meaning houses there are likely to continue having sustained demand, particularly in the middle suburban rings and affordable areas with good access to Melbourne CBD, such as the Western Suburbs.
This is coupled with strong gross state product growth rate of 3.3% and increasing private capital expenditure.
While the residential property market had cooled recently in Melbourne, overall houses in the Victorian capital city carried a low-medium level of risk and were projected, in the long-term, to deliver healthy capital growth.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/23/Gross%20State.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/23/Gross%20State.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/23/Gross%20State.jpg" alt=""></a>
The Melbourne property market is being looked at unfavourably by many so-called experts and this is having a dramatic impact on ‘mum and dad investors’ as well as policy makers. 
However, our research has shown that, in fact, Melbourne is a good option for investors, particularly the housing market in affordable areas, such as the western suburbs.
The report based its conclusions on the analysis of 30 variables grouped into seven categories to assess the short and long-term risk for houses and units in each state in Australia.
While it was true the Melbourne unit market carried a relatively high level of risk, housing in key areas, particularly the western suburbs, would enjoy healthy capital growth.
However, it seems the perception appears to be one of negativity due to people making generalisations about the market, over-reacting to slight fluctuations and taking a short-sighted approach instead of a long-term view. 
While many property experts are tipping price weakness in 2018, they fail to acknowledge there are many different markets, all with their own idiosyncrasies.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/23/Population%20growth.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/23/Population%20growth.jpg" alt="">
They also fail to distinguish between houses and units, rather using the term ‘dwelling’ for an all-encompassing view, ignoring that these property types are so different that RiskWise had to create separate heat maps for them.
It also doesn’t help that some commentators are suggesting there will be ‘5 to 10% price falls in 2018’. This just causes an over-reaction by investors who then become afraid to enter the market.
In addition, some forecasters were ignoring that about 78% of the houses in Melbourne were owner-occupied and had an estimated median net equity of $467,000. 
It is far more likely that with such equity they will get finance for an investment property, rather than being forced sellers. Therefore, the likelihood that houses in Melbourne will experience a significant correction is low. 
Many property investors were looking to “exotic investment opportunities”, such as North Queensland and Perth that carried a high level of risk and were projected to deliver a lower level of return. 
Others have a short-sighted approach focusing on quarterly, and in one case even weekly, data, applying principles that are common in the share market of short-term transactions. 
That approach ignores the fact that a typical house in Melbourne is held for 11.9 years.
Doron Peleg is CEO of RiskWise Property Research.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne housing market remains buoyant: Doron Peleg

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Macleod, 14 km north-east from Melbourne's Central Business District, has emerged as the strongest winter auction markets in the country.
There were 9868 auctions over winter in Melbourne, with an overall auction clearance rate of 71 per cent, according to Domain.
Domain economist Dr Andrew Wilson said hxpected clearance rates in Melbourne to remain above 70 per cent but said, overall, the market may not perform as well as last spring, when buyers were motivated by recent interest rate cuts.
The top five performing Melbourne suburbs over winter for houses
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="104">
Suburb
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
No. of auctions
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
Clearance rate
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="104">
Macleod
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
16
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
100%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="104">
Scoresby
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
100%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="104">
Burnside Heights
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
8
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
100%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="104">
Bonbeach
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
7
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
100%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="104">
Cranbourne
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
7
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
100%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
He said the top end of the Melbourne market had been an underperformer over winter.
“It’s certainly not as strong as the budget market, particularly the inner east,” he said.
“There’s a real sense the [inner-east] market has topped out.”
A three bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-macleod-126105246" target="_blank">32 Chapman Street</a>, Macleod (above) was sold during winter for $998,000.
Built in 1970 it last sold for $312,000 in 2002.
A four bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-macleod-126031542" target="_blank">4 Tucker Way</a>, Macleod (below) was sold during winter for $831,000.
It last sold in 1999 for $247,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/06/4%20Tucker%20Way.jpg" alt="">
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Macleod among Melbourne's best performing winter auction suburbs

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Durack has been ranked among the fastest Queensland locations to sell a house, according to a recent market report from Investar.
The property investment firm suggest vendors at Durack can expect their home to be on the market for 66 days before being sold.
This is followed by Birtinya at 68 days and Caloundra at 70 days.
<table border="1" align="left"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Suburb</td>
<td>Postcode</td>
<td>Dwelling type</td>
<td>Bedrooms</td>
<td>Days on market</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Durack</td>
<td>4077</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Birtinya</td>
<td>4575</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Caloundra</td>
<td>4551</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Algester</td>
<td>4115</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>71</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Newmarket</td>
<td>4051</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>71</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
This list was produced using live on the market sales listing data.
It is also calculated at both a dwelling type and bedroom number level. It is designed to identify the fastest moving suburbs based on the average days a listing spends on the market at a suburb and property type level.
Low average days on market indicates that the market is turning over stock quickly, which may signal that demand is stronger than supply.
Houses for sale at Durack at the median price of $392,000 include a three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-durack-123066002" target="_blank">113 Durrang St</a> (above) that is for sale for $410,000.
Similarly a three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-durack-123571182" target="_blank">8 Thistlebank St</a> (below) is for sale for $415,000.
<img src="/images/2016/10/07/8%20Thistlebank%20St%20.jpg" alt="">
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Durack is Queensland's fastest location to sell a house: Investar

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Apollo Bay is ranked the location in Victoria where it is the slowest to sell a house, according to Investar’s latest market report.
The property investment firm states that an average house at Apollo Bay can expect to be on the market for 632 days before being sold.
This is followed by Mount Beauty at 507 days and Paynesville at 498 days.
<table style="height: 99px; width: 427px;" border="1" align="left"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Suburb</td>
<td>Postcode</td>
<td>Dwelling type</td>
<td>Bedrooms</td>
<td>Days on market</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apollo Bay</td>
<td>3233</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>632</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mount Beauty</td>
<td>3699</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>507</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Paynesville</td>
<td>3880</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>498</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Corryong</td>
<td>3707</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>498</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ouyen</td>
<td>3490</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>496</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
 
 
 
 
This list was produced using live on the market sales listing data.
High average days on market indicates that the market is turning over stock slowly which may indicate that demand is weaker than supply creating a stronger negotiation point for buyers.
Houses for sale at Apollo Bay at the median price of $515,000 include a three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-apollo+bay-119192663" target="_blank">15 Murray Square</a> (above) that is for sale for $515,000. It has been for sale since February 2015 when listed with $598,000 hopes. It recently went under offer.
Similarly a three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-apollo+bay-121006834" target="_blank">12 Outlook Road</a> (below) is for sale for $525,000.
<img src="/images/2016/10/07/12%20Outlook%20Road.jpg" alt="">
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Apollo Bay is Victoria's slowest selling property market: Investar

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Tumbarumba is ranked the NSW location where it is the slowest to sell a house, according to Investar’s latest market report.
The property investment firm states that an average house at Tumbarumba can expect to be on the market for 1028 days before being sold.
This is followed by Glenn Innes 653 days and Tea Gardens at 605 days.
<table border="1" align="left"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Suburb</td>
<td>Postcode</td>
<td>Dwelling type</td>
<td>Bedrooms</td>
<td>Days on market</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tumbarumba</td>
<td>2653</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>1028</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Glenn Innes</td>
<td>2370</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>653</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tea Gardens</td>
<td>2324</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>605</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tumut</td>
<td>2720</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>552</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jindabyne</td>
<td>2627</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>538</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
This list was produced using live on the market sales listing data.
It is also calculated at both a dwelling type and bedroom number level. It is designed to identify the slowest moving suburbs based on the average days a listing spends on the market at a suburb and property type level.
High average days on market indicates that the market is turning over stock slowly which may indicate that demand is weaker than supply creating a stronger negotiation point for buyers.
Houses for sale at Tumbarumba at the median price of $212,500 include a three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-tumbarumba-123562838" target="_blank">10 Power Street</a> (above) that is for sale for $215,000. It has been for sale since September, but had been up for sale for much of 2014. It last sold at $175,000 in 2010.
Similarly a three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-tumbarumba-123157482" target="_blank">23 Bell Street</a> (below) is for sale for $210,000. It was listed in July.
<img src="/images/2016/10/07/23%20Bell%20Street.jpg" alt="">
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Tumbarumba is NSW's slowest selling housing market: Investar

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Flemington is ranked the Melbourne suburb with the fastest selling houses, according to Investar’s latest market report.
The property investment firm calculates houses listed by private treaty in Flemington sell in 39 days.
This is followed by Kensington at 40 days and Caulfield South at 42 days.
<table border="1" align="left"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Suburb</td>
<td>Postcode</td>
<td>Dwelling type</td>
<td>Bedrooms</td>
<td>Days on market</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Flemington</td>
<td>3031</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kensington</td>
<td>3031</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Caulfield South</td>
<td>3162</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Elsternwick</td>
<td>3185</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brunswick</td>
<td>3056</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>43</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
 
 
 
 
This list was produced using live on the market sales listing data.
It is also calculated at both a dwelling type and bedroom number level. It is designed to identify the fastest moving suburbs based on the average days a listing spends on the market at a suburb and property type level.
Low average days on market indicates that the market is turning over stock quickly which may indicate that demand is stronger than supply.
Houses for sale at Flemington at the median price of $850,000 include a three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-flemington-123684630" target="_blank">17 Sturt Street</a> (above) that was offered for auction with price guidance between $850,000 to $900,000.
It fetched $1,237,000 at weekend auction.
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Flemington takes top spot in Melbourne's fastest selling houses: Investar

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Elliot Heads is the Queensland location where there has been the biggest increase in house stock compared to last year, according to Investar’s latest market report.
The property advisory firm states that Elliot Heads has experienced a house listing growth of 204%, up from 21 to 64 over the past 12 month period.
This is followed by Mango Hill, up from 79 to 239 and Nudgee, up from 27 to 74 houses on sale.
<table border="1" align="left"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Suburb</td>
<td>Postcode</td>
<td>Current sales stock</td>
<td>Sales stock 1 yr ago</td>
<td>Growth</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Elliot Heads</td>
<td>4670</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>204%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mango Hill</td>
<td>4509</td>
<td>239</td>
<td>79</td>
<td>202%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nudgee</td>
<td>4014</td>
<td>74</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>174%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Park Ridge</td>
<td>4125</td>
<td>125</td>
<td>46</td>
<td>171%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Upper Kedron</td>
<td>4055</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>104%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
 
 
 
 
This list was produced using historical listing data at a suburb level for houses.
It is designed to identify the suburbs with the biggest increase in stock on market for the current month when compared to the stock on market for the same period 12 months ago.
A large increase in stock on market could indicate weakening demand conditions or an increase in supply from growing activity in the market.
Houses for sale at around the $373,500 median in Elliot Heads includes a three bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-elliott+heads-123105222" target="_blank">22 Mitchell Street</a> (above) that is for sale for $369,000.
Similarly a three bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-elliott+heads-123013178" target="_blank">9 Brieschke Street</a> (below) is for sale for $375,000.
<img src="/images/2016/10/07/9%20Brieschke%20Street.jpg" alt="">
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Elliot Heads house listings soar to Queensland top spot: Investar

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Agnes Water is ranked the slowest sales location in Queensland to sell a house, according to Investar’s latest market report.
The property investment firm states that an average house at Agnes Water can expect to be on the market for 1086 days before being sold.
This is followed by Innisfail at 927 days and Kurrimine Beach at 866 days.
<table border="1" align="left"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Suburb</td>
<td>Postcode</td>
<td>Dwelling type</td>
<td>Bedrooms</td>
<td>Days on market</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Agnes Water</td>
<td>4677</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1086</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Innisfail</td>
<td>4860</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>927</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kurrimine Beach</td>
<td>4871</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>866</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Coolum Beach</td>
<td>4573</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>796</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Airlie Beach</td>
<td>4802</td>
<td>House</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>731</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
This list was produced using live on the market sales listing data.
It is also calculated at both a dwelling type and bedroom number level. It is designed to identify the slowest moving suburbs based on the average days a listing spends on the market at a suburb and property type level.
High average days on market indicates that the market is turning over stock slowly, which may indicate that demand is weaker than supply creating a stronger negotiation point for buyers.
Houses for sale at Agnes Water at the median price of $305,000 include a two bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-agnes+water-117917947" target="_blank">Agnes Water </a>(above) that is for sale for $319,000.
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Agnes Water houses taking 1000 plus days to find buyer: Investar

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Combined capital city dwelling values rose by 6.6 percent year to year to according to CoreLogic RP Data's Hedonic Home Value Index, March 2016.
CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless said the figures show an over-performance by detached housing relative to units.
"This can most likely be attributed to the more efficient release of higher density housing supply together with an ongoing shortage of strategically located vacant land and new detached housing stock,” Mr Lawless said.
<a href="/images/2016/04/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-01%20at%203.00.56%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-01%20at%203.00.56%20PM.png" alt="">
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