Development approval has been granted for the $665 million expansion of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/trinity-point-estate-81-trinity-point-drive-morisset-park">Trinity Point</a>, marking a major milestone for what is set to become one of Australia’s largest waterfront developments.&nbsp;

Located on a 23-hectare site on Lake Macquarie, the masterplanned community by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/johnson-property-group">Johnson Property Group</a> will introduce a new scale of coastal living to the region, underpinned by sustainability, landscape-led design, and a focus on placemaking.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada Architects</a> with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, the development will deliver a 153-room luxury hotel, 160 waterfront apartments, and a mix of retail, dining, wellness, and conference facilities. Key features include two 300-seat signature restaurants, a spa and wellness offering, a 300-seat function room, and a collection of pools, bars, and landscaped public areas.

“This project is about putting Lake Macquarie on the global stage,” said Keith Johnson, Founder of Johnson Property Group. “We’re not just building something beautiful, we’re creating a destination that showcases the very best of the region.”

<img alt="Trinity Point Estate - 81 Trinity Point Drive, Morisset Park" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0775e02c-5402-46e4-ba48-e4bbf087a923" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/68218522911bbca3fbe25939_67d2081d6ce812cf2a9c3fb8_KOIC11165_Trinity%20Point%20-%20Addendum_E01_View%20from%20water_A3_croppped.jpg?VersionId=8Q2yOSwSOvMK7qBawrTLbahtavm5eyH1" />

The project’s architecture and landscape design are deeply informed by the natural and cultural context of the site. Arcadia undertook a Connection with Country workshop in collaboration with local Elders to understand the stories of land and water, resulting in a landscape approach that honours the Awabakal people's cultural heritage.

Trinity Point was historically significant for its Aboriginal occupation, providing food and spiritual connection through its relationship with Lake Macquarie and the surrounding Watagan Mountains.&nbsp;

Arcadia’s design response incorporates native planting, sculptural elements, viewing decks, and materials that reflect the surrounding ridgelines and sandstone outcrops.

<img alt="Trinity Point Estate - 81 Trinity Point Drive, Morisset Park" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c4db7d3a-3a03-4834-a9e0-cc74dc60ac64" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/6888542fa954f63bd565c684_IN03_Hotel%20To%20View_A3RGB.jpg?VersionId=IXgYtO5fI3xveOG0ZRq.LuNA__GJOoeC" />

With the Central Coast and Lake Macquarie region experiencing strong population growth and increased interest from owner-occupiers and lifestyle-focused buyers, Trinity Point responds to a clear demand for high-quality, amenity-rich housing.&nbsp;

The project is expected to inject over $588 million into the local economy through construction contracts and long-term employment once operational.

Already home to the 94-berth Trinity Point marina and the acclaimed ‘8 at Trinity’ restaurant, the next stage cements the area’s evolution into a premium lifestyle destination.&nbsp; An expanded marina (up to 188 berths) and new wellness and hospitality offerings will support both local and visitor demand.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=14893]

Joel Robinson

Trinity Point’s $665 million masterplan approved in Lake Macquarie

The NSW Government will take the lead in rezoning the Burwood North Metro Precinct, that could deliver around 15,000 new homes near the future Sydney Metro station, creating new housing and job opportunities close to transport and services. 
 
The new Burwood North Metro Station provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to create a thriving inner-west precinct near a world class metro line, just four stations away from the Sydney CBD. 
 
Centred around the new Burwood North Metro Station, the rezoning will deliver a new precinct supported by major public transport links and open space, while rejuvenating another part of the Parramatta Road corridor. 
 
The current Burwood train station and Parramatta Road bus links are also nearby, along with strong local schools and shopping precincts, with the Parramatta River a short distance away. 
 
Burwood Council and Canada Bay Council have both progressed individual masterplans to deliver homes in their Local Government Areas. The NSW Government will build upon the Councils’ plans as well as identify further opportunities for residential growth to better respond to the future Sydney Metro station. 
 
The rezoning is being progressed through the State Significant Rezoning Pathway, which was introduced by the Minns Government to fast-track major rezoning proposals. The State Significant Rezoning Policy, introduced in September 2024, fast tracks the rezoning of key precincts, and existing planning proposals delayed in the planning system. 
 
NSW is in need of bold housing solutions. Sydney is the second least affordable city in the world, with house prices having significantly outstripped wage growth over the last two decades. 
 
A key focus of the state-led rezoning will be to deliver precinct-wide infrastructure that will enable essential services and amenities to be delivered alongside the new housing. 
 
The Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure will now work with both councils and the relevant state government agencies to progress the rezoning, with a draft masterplan expected to be exhibited in the first half of 2026. This will be followed by a final precinct masterplan, at which stage development applications can be lodged under the new planning controls. 
 
This new site builds on the NSW Government’s earlier announcements of state-led and state-assessed rezoning projects. To date, 25 projects have been progressed as state rezonings, with the potential to enable the delivery of an estimated 60,000 homes and 68,000 jobs.

The Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) NSW, says the NSW Government’s decision to lead the rezoning of Burwood is an essential move to unlocking much needed housing supply, accelerating the planning system, and ensuring coordinated infrastructure delivery.&nbsp;

“The NSW rezoning process is currently one of the slowest in the country. Any action that helps to speed this up, particularly in well-located areas like Burwood North, should be welcomed,” said UDIA NSW CEO, Stuart Ayres.&nbsp;

“New homes start with rezoned land. That’s why we’re encouraged to see the NSW Government stepping in to lead the process at Burwood North. The more the State can be involved in finalising these complex rezonings, especially where boundaries are shared, the better the outcomes for everyone."

NSW Government to rezone Burwood North and trigger 15,000 new homes near future Sydney Metro Station

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a>, in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, has achieved strong sales success with the launch of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a>, the most elevated and luxurious release to date in the $5 billion Melrose Park masterplanned community in north-west Sydney.

Around $30 million worth of apartments, across 35 sales, was secured within four hours of the release, marking one of the strongest launch results at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a>. Priced between $645,000 and $1.5 million, Aeris set a new benchmark for the precinct, with two-bedroom apartments eclipsing the $1 million mark, significantly higher than comparable offerings in previous stages.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=4945]

Veronica Papaianni, Sales Manager, Apartment &amp; Mixed-Use Developments at Sekisui House Australia, said the sales results confirmed both the strength of the market and the growing demand for premium apartments in master planned communities.

“Aeris captured the attention of buyers with its elevated location, luxury finishes and new product types including two-bedroom residences with dedicated multipurpose rooms, a first for Melrose Park,”&nbsp;Papaianni says.

“The response was immediate with over 200 people attending the launch and 35 apartments sold launch day. Owner occupiers made up over half of all purchasers, an exceptional outcome for a high-rise apartment building and a strong indicator of the desirability of Aeris as a place to live, not just invest."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=4946]

Apartments sold were evenly split between one and two-bedroom configurations, with strong demand from young couples, professionals, downsizers and first home buyers. The introduction of adaptable layouts, such as dual key and multi-generational residences, also expanded buyer interest.

“The record result builds on renewed buyer confidence following two interest rate cuts earlier this year, with another cut widely anticipated next week,"&nbsp;Papaianni added.

"The interest rate reductions have definitely contributed to the sales momentum and buyer optimism. We are seeing more people engage with the market, particularly owner occupiers who feel now is the right time to secure a high-quality home in a future focused location.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=4948]

Positioned at the highest point of the 30-hectare Melrose Park site, Aeris offers panoramic views of the Parramatta River, Sydney Olympic Parklands and the surrounding neighbourhood. Every apartment includes Miele appliances, timber flooring and smart home integration with residents enjoying access to a rooftop pool, gym and outdoor cinema.

“The success of Aeris further elevates Melrose Park’s standing in Sydney’s competitive property landscape. Aeris reaffirms Melrose Park’s position as one of Sydney’s most ambitious urban renewal projects," Papaianni continued.

"Its green spaces, future Town Centre (set to open in 2026), Melrose Park High School and connectivity to the Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 connection, make it a highly attractive proposition for both owner occupiers and investors.”

There will be 468 apartments across the 21- and 23-level towers. Only the first of Aeris’s two towers has been released to date, with the next release expected in early 2026.

Construction of Aeris is anticipated to commence in late 2025, with the first lower tower due for completion in Q4 2027 and the second tower expected in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Apartments sold were evenly split between one and two-bedroom configurations, with strong demand from young couples, professionals, downsizers and first home buyers

Strong buyer response to Aeris, Melrose Park’s latest stage

Melbourne is continuing its bounce-back from bottoming out of the property market earlier this year.

The gains are modest, but have been continuous now for the last three months. Dwelling values, which incorporate both houses and units, rose 0.4 per cent in July, according to Cotality's latest Home Value Index.

Unit values lifted 0.4 per cent over the month, following gains of 0.3 per cent in June and 0.4 per cent in May.

On an annual basis, Melbourne unit values are still 0.8 per cent below where they stood a year ago, highlighting the lag in the apartment sector’s post-pandemic recovery.

Median unit values now sit at $621,281, while Melbourne’s house median is $952,339, a gap of over $330,000.

Melbourne’s quarterly growth of 1.2 per cent across all dwellings placed it behind most capitals, though the broader mood is lifting with rate cuts and construction confidence slowly returning to the market. Cotality notes that the supply-demand imbalance remains a key driver of price resilience, with listings well below average and annual sales slightly above trend.

<h2>What happened in Melbourne’s off the plan apartment market in July?</h2>

There were key milestones across several major developments in Melbourne over July, from new releases to construction advancements, in both Bayside and Melbourne's inner ring.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gamuda-land">Gamuda Land</a> topped out <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/fareham-st-kilda-95-st-kilda-road-st-kilda-vic-3182">Fareham</a>, its sculptural residential tower on St Kilda Road.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/markscon">Markscon</a> has completed the 16-storey structure and remains on track to deliver the entire building by early 2026.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=137950 project_image_fid=281436]

“Topping out marks more than just structural progress - it represents our long-term vision to create sustainable, well-integrated neighbourhoods that add real value to the communities around them,” said Jess Teng, Chief Operating officer, Gamuda Land.

Fareham, one of the few new developments currently on the market in St Kilda, responds directly to its location along the iconic St Kilda Road. The project is targeting an average 8-star NatHERS rating, well above standard requirements for new apartment buildings.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/gamuda-land-tops-out-fareham-on-st-kilda-rd">Gamuda Land tops out Fareham on St Kilda Rd</a>

In the inner north, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/beulah">Beulah</a> revealed a new sustainable townhouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/brunswick-established-23-hodgson-st-brunswick-vic-3056">Brunswick Established</a> precinct.

The collection, known as ‘The Courtyard House’, has been created in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/six-degrees-architects">Six Degrees Architects</a> to meet the evolving needs of modern families.

The release comprises 15 two and three-bedroom homes centred on a communal courtyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136451 project_image_fid=270371]

With a central courtyard at its heart, the design reimagines the possibilities of multi-generational living, blending flexibility, sustainability and personalisation within a heritage setting. Distinct from a traditional garden, the courtyard delivers natural light, fresh air and a generous sense of space, without the upkeep of a backyard.

“The modern home should flow from inside to outside - the courtyard provides a space which joins the different parts of the home together as the central outside space of the home,” explains Six Degrees Director, Peter Malatt.

Brunswick Established is now 70 per cent sold.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/beulah-release-sustainable-courtyard-townhouse-collection-at-brunswick-established">Beulah release sustainable courtyard townhouse collection at Brunswick Established</a>

In Melbourne's west, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/spacious-property-development-group-pty-ltd">Spacious Property Development Group</a> confirmed that residents will begin moving into <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/voyage-altona-102-106-pier-street-altona-vic-3018">Voyage Altona</a> this spring, as builder Ironside pushes through final works.

Positioned within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/altona-vic-3018">Altona</a> waterfront precinct, Voyage offers coastal apartments set within landscaped surrounds. Voyage is the only new apartment offering currently on the market in Altona.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=2146]

The developer flagged the start of settlements as a key moment for the precinct, which forms part of a broader long-term vision for Altona’s transformation.

Prices start from just over $500,000 for one-bedroom apartments, with three-bedroom configurations topping out just over the $1 million mark.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/buyers-to-move-into-voyage-altona-this-spring">Buyers to move into Voyage Altona this Spring</a>

City Beat July 2025: Melbourne values continue to trend upwards

For the first time in four years, a new apartment development has launched in the growing North Sydney commercial and retail hub.

Several years in the making, national apartment developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/casa">CASA</a> has unveiled <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-mclaren-north-sydney-45-mclaren-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The McLaren</a>—a boutique collection of just 71 apartments in a striking, stepped building ideally located on McLaren Street, on the edge of North Sydney’s vibrant lifestyle precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141323 project_image_fid=3191]

The McLaren is just a stone’s throw from the new Victoria Cross Metro Station, part of the expanded Sydney Metro network that’s attracting buyers from North Sydney through to Castle Hill.

CASA engaged renowned architects Bates Smart to design the project. Boutique by city centre standards, where developments often reach soaring heights and feature hundreds of apartments, The McLaren stands out for its intentional, considered design.

What’s immediately evident is the care taken to maximise apartment outlooks. The building rises to just 14 storeys - also relatively modest for the area - but cascades downwards to create expansive terraces and a sculpted rooftop garden offering panoramic views across Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The McLaren’s podium pays homage to the site’s fine-grain, leafy character. It sits adjacent to heritage-listed properties and near the Walker and Ridge Streets Heritage Conservation Area.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141323 project_image_fid=3193]

The development offers a diverse mix of apartments, ranging from one to four bedrooms. More than half are generously sized three-bedroom residences, catering to the local downsizer market. Selected apartments feature natural stone benchtops, Gaggenau appliances, and a refined interior palette inspired by the local landscape.

The McLaren also includes a rare collection of terrace homes that echo the scale, materiality, and character of North Sydney’s Victorian-era dwellings—particularly those along nearby Walker Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141323 project_image_fid=3194]

All McLaren residents, whether in a terrace home or apartment, will enjoy exclusive access to resident-only amenities, including a rooftop garden terrace, private dining and wine cellar facilities, and a lounge area designed for entertaining and relaxation. A ground-floor retail space and a new public through-site link connecting Walker and Harnett Streets will further enhance local vibrancy and walkability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141323 project_image_fid=3196]

Colliers is receiving strong interest from local downsizers and working professionals who are drawn to the connectivity of North Sydney, and the convenience of being just one metro stop from the Sydney CBD for both work and leisure.

CASA, established in 2010 as a private real estate fund backed by global institutional investor GFM, has recently expanded its residential development pipeline nationally, with two additional projects in Melbourne and another in Byron Bay.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141323]

CASA reveals The McLaren, North Sydney's newest apartment development

Growth Forecast

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After a stronger than expected housing turnaround, NAB are now forecasting dwelling values to rise by an average of eight per cent nationally across 2021, with a view that 2022 will also see strong gains.

The revision comes after the turnaround in the housing markets, pared with low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on newly built properties.

"The housing market has fared significantly better than expected over the past year, despite significant headwinds from slower population growth and a weaker labour market," the NAB report read.

"Lower interest rates and household income support from the Federal Government have been a key support amidst the challenges of the pandemic.

"While the impact of lower rates is broad-based, there are some key dynamics underlying our forecast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553]

NAB expect the smaller capitals to continue to outpace Sydney and Melbourne, but the two biggest capital city markets have closed the gap from NAB's previous forecasts.

In the Q2 update in mid-2019, NAB were forecasting a -4.3 per cent average decline across the country, with Melbourne (-7.3 per cent) and Sydney (-4.7 per cent), driving the losses.

In Q3, following a positive response to COVID-19, NAB flipped their forecast, predicting five per cent gains nationally over 2021 and Melbourne (+3.6 per cent) and Sydney (+4.4 per cent), going full circle.

Now NAB expect nearly eight per cent gains average, with Sydney and Melbourne not far behind other capital city markets.

<img alt="" height="791" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_q4_forecast.jpg" width="1200">

They expect the best performer to be Brisbane, where there are 10.1 per cent gains forecast for 2021 and 6.3 per cent for 2022.

Adelaide and Hobart are predicted to see the strongest gains over 2022, up 7.4 per cent after 8.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent gains over 2021.

Sentiment has been on the turn for a number of months and the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points. Confidence levels returned to levels last seen before COVID in late-2019 as expectations lifted sharply for house price growth across the country.

<img alt="" height="905" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_sentiment_q4.jpg" width="1200">

NAB economist Alan Astor says first home buyer demand remains very strong in new and established housing markets and is likely being supported by historically low interest rates and government support such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and HomeBuilder.

"The brief pullback in house prices earlier in the year may have also helped sentiment among these buyers."
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The revision comes after a stronger than expected housing market, pared with the low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on new properties.



NAB raises dwelling price forecast for 2021 and 2022

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There will be no huge spike in office market values in the post-COVID world.
That's the view of NAB's Q3 Commercial Property survey, which is forecasting declines to 2022.
There's only good news for Western Australia in the near term, whose values are forecast to decline -2.4 per cent in the next 12 months.
Then they expect the market to be flat to Q3 22.
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Nationally, NAB expect capital growth in the office market to contract -3 per cent in the next 12 months, driven by VIC (-3.6 per cent), QLD (-3.4 per cent) and NSW (-2.9 per cent).
The SA and NT office market are forecast to fair slightly better over the next year, with declines of -3.2 per cent forecast.
"Property professionals see Office markets remaining “somewhat” over-supplied over the next 1-5 years in all states bar NSW (“neutral” in 5 years)," the reported read.
"The 12-month confidence measure was weakest for Retail (-71) property, followed by Office (-63), with confidence levels in both sectors little changed from the record low levels reported in Q2."
"The 2-year measure was also broadly unchanged at near record lows in both sectors (Retail -47; Office -40)."
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The national office vacancy rate lifted to a two and a half year high of nine per cent in Q3, up from 8.5 per cent in Q2, primarily driven by an increase in QLD (11.8%). 
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Overall vacancy is expected to climb further to around 10% in the next 1-2 years, with increases in VIC (around 8.7%), NSW (around 8%) and QLD (around 131⁄2%).
<div class="page" title="Page 2">Unsurprisingly, with many commercial tenants still struggling in a challenging economic environment, the rental outlook remains weak for office property.</div>
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Over the next 12 months, rents are expected to fall -3% in office.
Rental growth is expected to continue falling in over the next 1-2 years, and in all states, with VIC (next 12 months at -4.9%) and QLD and SA/NT (in 2 years at -3.5%) under most pressure in office markets.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Slow return to normal for office values, with WA the best performer: NAB

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Brisbane dwelling prices will outperform those in Sydney and Melbourne in 2020, according to Westpac.
They believe the Queensland capital will see eight per cent increases next year, above the six forecasted for the two major capital city markets.
Westpac suggest the strong momentum in Sydney and Melbourne will fade as affordability issues re-emerge and population slows.
Brisbane is well positioned due to its affordability and population inflows.
 "Momentum heading into 2020 is clearly positive, albeit uneven across markets," Westpac advised.
They said in the near term, the main guidance comes from current price momentum, auction markets, listings and their buyer sentiment measures.
"Nationally, these are all showing positive prospects for early 2020 with price growth accelerating, auction clearance rates riding high in Sydney and Melbourne, listings showing a clear tightening and a positive pulse from buyer sentiment pointing to a further lift in demand.
"The cyclical momentum is strongest in Sydney and Melbourne but is also showing a notable pick up in Brisbane. Adelaide and Hobart are seeing a more muted lift with Perth yet to pull out of its multi year price decline.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/26/Westpac%20forecast.jpg" alt=""> 
They predict a number of factors to shape residential property over 2020.
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<div class="column">"The first is policy - we expect the RBA to cut rates by another 25bps at its February meeting and to turn to so-called unconventional policy measures to provide additional stimulus," Westpac advise.</div>
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<div class="column">The second factor is supply, both in the form of sellers returning to the market and the physical supply of new dwellings. New listings fell to extreme lows in 2019.</div>
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<div class="column">"Our analysis suggests the listing cycle tends to follow the sales cycle by about six months. A likely lift in new listings will test the depth of demand in the first half of 2020. The supply of newly built dwellings will also remain elevated. Completions eased back from a record 218k in 2018 to an estimated 205k in 2019.</div>
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<div class="column">"Our projections have this easing to around 175k in 2020, still well above average pre-boom levels with about 50k of that high rise dwellings. New supply could prove difficult to absorb and will weigh on prices and rents in some segments – Sydney’s rental vacancy rate and Melbourne’s stock of unsold units being key areas to watch.</div>
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<div class="column">Westpac believe would-be buyers in Sydney and Melbourne will be priced out of the markets and will seek more affordable markets if the current price resurgence continues, which will slow growth.</div>
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<div class="column">"As 2020 unfolds we expect another dynamic to come to the fore around affordability and population flows.</div>
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<div class="column">"Despite the price correction in 2017-18 and a further lowering in interest rates, affordability remains relatively stretched in Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
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<div class="column">"The resurgence in prices see these markets run into the same affordability constraints that emerged in 2016-17 as prices near previous peaks.</div>
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<div class="column">"Investor activity will lift as low deposit rates and equity volatility drive more interest in real estate but funding is likely to remain a constraint on investors."</div>
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Brisbane to outshine Sydney and Melbourne dwelling prices in 2020: Westpac

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In 2020, there will be several political and economic factors that will continue to impact Sydney’s property market. 
Douglas reveals his 12 property market forecasts for 2020:
1.       Property owners will continue to sit on their hands. Listings will continue to be at relatively low levels as a significant proportion of property owners will wait and ‘time the market’ until they are certain prices have peaked again. For this reason, Sydney property buyers might be rewarded with more stock at the end of 2020. Once this happens, prices will creep closer to their early 2017 levels – though won’t quite reach them.
2.       A stampede of first home buyers in January. The landscape in 2020 is set to change again for first home buyers: further financial stimulus will be introduced to assist them, with the Morrison Government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme commencing on 1 January. While I stand by my argument that this was a pre-election gimmick by the Coalition Government to win votes, it will undoubtedly lead to an immediate stampede of first home buyer numbers in the first few weeks of next year. This is a ‘first-in, best-dressed’ scenario, so I won’t be surprised to see first home buyer numbers slow once these spots are filled.
3.       Property prices to increase 5-10 per cent. With relatively low property stock continuing alongside increased buyer interest, house prices will rise between five and 10 per cent next year, depending on the suburb – if the political and economic environment remains stable. Only in August, CoreLogic reported that the number of properties listed for sale were at their lowest levels since 2010. Price rises might exceed 10 per cent if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates again – as some are currently forecasting for the near future. Finally, as the banks now have their lending restrictions in place, I’m not expecting the bank regulator APRA to intervene in the short-to-medium term.
4.       Average days on market to fall. The imbalance between supply (low) and demand (high) will lead to shorter property marketing campaigns in 2020. Already in Sydney, the median days on market has shortened by seven days between August and September this year and will continue to fall. 
5.       Build quality to remain in the spotlight. Last year’s Opal Tower crisis and this year’s Mascot Towers event has heightened the spotlight on build quality. This will continue in 2020, as the State Government begins to implement the first tranche of its building reforms. But as these reforms will only apply to buildings yet to be constructed, the problem of build quality will continue to make headlines. The rush to get apartments built and sold in the housing boom meant shortcuts may have been taken. Although there are rogue developers who do cut corners, more often than not, the vast majority are reputable and are being compliant. The problem is we’re chastising them, when maybe we should be looking more closely at building regulations. There are significant changes ahead to increase compliance and enforcement in the building and construction industry and, I predict, even talks of a possible royal commission in 2020.
6.       Houses will continue shrinking. Australians used to have some of the biggest free-standing houses in the world, but now they are starting to shrink: the average size of a new house built in Australia was 228.8m² in 2018-19, down from 231.8m² in 2017-18 – which is the smallest since 2001-02. Sydney’s geographic limitations allow it to expand north-west and south-west only, meaning homes will become smaller in an effort to house more dwellings. Practicality has also crept in. As a nation, we’re not cooking as much as we once were, and so the sizes of our kitchens are also getting smaller. With apps like Deliveroo and UberEATS at our fingertips, the focus is much less on cooking than it is on convenience.   
7.       Developers will start to create homes suited to specific demographics, opposed to the cookie-cutter approach of the investor boom. With apartments accounting for roughly one-third of all new dwellings approved for construction in Australia from 2014 to 2018, it’s no surprise that developers mastered a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. It was easy for them to market off-the-plan properties months before building work commenced and keep them as fuss-free as possible; mainly 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom, ‘no frills’ units.With many more millennials and downsizers entering the market, however, more developers have realised that they must adopt new configurations to suit the needs of a changing demographic. Downsizers, for example, are seeking terrace houses or single-story villas that offer low-maintenance lifestyles.
8.       Australians re-mortgaging in record numbers. Many Sydney mortgagees will take advantage of the low interest rate environment in 2020. With the lending environment becoming more competitive, and borrowers more open to smaller lenders, we’ll also see more mortgagees shopping around and switching lenders to secure a better rate. Even a quarter of a percent saving on a mortgage rate can equate to thousands of dollars over the life cycle of a loan. As always, I recommend mortgage holders speak to an independent broker, as they have full access to the market and are impartial.
9.       Exurbs will grow around Sydney. Exurbs are prosperous areas outside, or on the fringe of, a city’s metropolitan area. They are fairly self-sufficient population ecosystems in their own right and have good infrastructure and amenities. In Greater Western Sydney, these are areas such as Box Hill in the north west and Oran Park and Menangle in the south west. I’m expecting a greater number of exurbs around Sydney, and existing exurbs to enjoy continued growth.
10.   More landlords considering multiple occupation. A house in multiple occupation (HMO), or a house of multiple occupancy, is a UK-coined term that describes residential properties where ‘common areas’ exist and are shared by more than three people not from the one household (for example, a family) – and it’s an emerging trend here in Australia. In areas of Sydney, particularly around its universities, more young people are choosing to live in such a manner and I’m seeing landlords looking to adapt their properties for this purpose. This requires them to comply with additional regulations for the management and health and safety of the property and its occupants.
11.   British and Hong Kong residents will look to invest here because of political volatility and the weak Australian dollar. In light of Brexit and Hong Kong’s political crisis and a weak Australian dollar, a proportion of anti-Brexiteers and Hong Kong residents will look to the Australian property market as a safehaven. However, China’s Supreme Court this year introduced strict penalties for its citizens transferring money out of the country to buy property overseas, so unless Hong Kong residents are incredibly ‘creative’ they will face barriers to investing in property here.
12.   Stamp duty to be reviewed. Stamp duty is a cash cow for the NSW Government: In the 2016-17 financial year, it generated them a whopping $8 billion. However, as a result of the recent property market slump, the NSW Treasury has since suffered a fall in stamp duty revenue – revenue was $7.4 billion in 2018-19 and $6.9 billion in 2019-20.[7] With property stock levels predicted to remain low next year, it’s in the interests of the State Government to conduct a full review of its stamp duty model, and I predict these conversations will play a key role in State politics in 2020.
Douglas Driscoll is CEO of real estate group Starr<a href="https://www.starrpartners.com.au/"> </a>Partners.
 
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Sydney property market predictions for 2020: Doug Driscoll

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Commonwealth Bank have updated their forecast for the 2020 dwelling markets on the back of the resurgence over the last few months.
They now expect national dwelling prices to grow six per cent in 2020.
CBA senior economist Gareth Aird has called the rebound in demand "phenomenal."
"Back in July we updated out dwelling price forecasts and extended the profile to end-2020," CBA senior economist Gareth Aird said.
He noted however that they only expect modest price rises over H2 2019 and 2020.
"We flagged that the risks to our forecast profile were to the upside, but a V-shaped recovery was not our central scenario," Aird added.
Commonwealth Bank expect Sydney and Melbourne to drive the national forecast, each to be up seven and eight per cent.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/11/15/CBA%20Forecasts.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/15/CBA%20Forecasts.jpg" alt=""> 
Brisbane and Canberra will follow with four per cent gains, with Adelaide and Hobart house prices to grow three per cent.
There's finally good news for Perth and Darwin.
After major losses, the two strong mining capitals aren't expected to see declines in 2020. Perth is forecast to see 2.5 per cent growth, while Darwin will remain flat.
National dwelling prices have risen 3.7 per cent since bottoming out in June, however they still remain seven per cent below the September 2017 peak.
Aird says there are two key downside risks to their view on property prices.
"First, the reintroduction of macro-prudential measures to slow the growth in lending," Aird stated.
"Measurers introduced a few years ago to slow both the rate of growth in lending to investors and rate of growth in interest-only lending were successful in slow dwelling price appreciation.
"Second, a lift in the national unemployment rate above 5.5 per cent would likely result in dwelling prices not lifting as much as we expect."
Aird also cited two key upside risks to CBA's forecasts, the first being if there is another cut in the official cash rate.
"We expect one further 25bp cut to the cast rate in Q1 2020 which should result in a further reduction in mortgage rates," Aird said.
"But any move to UMP (unconventional monetary policy) that results in mortgage rates moving lower than we expect would likely result in dwelling prices inflating by more than we anticipate.
Aird added that if there were to be any further policy changes to boost housing demand such as first home owner grants or lower stamp duty, to domestic or foreign buyers, then prices could go higher than the forecast.
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Rebound in property demand "phenomenal" as CBA forecast higher 2020 prices

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The quick turnaround in the housing market looks to be more prolonged than many forecast according to new research from SQM Research.
In the new 'Christopher's Housing Boom and Bust Report 2020', Melbourne house markets could climb up to 15 per cent.
The report offers four scenarios that could play out over 2020, with the base case the most likely.
Should the cash rate remain at 0.75 per cent and there be a recovery in the economy, as well as no intervention from APRA until late 2020, then house prices in Melbourne will return to the peaks of late 2017.
Sydney gains are likely to be slightly more modest, with <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-house-prices-could-jump-14-per-cent-in-2020-sqm-research">gains forecast up to 14 per cent</a>.
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/14/SQM%20sceanrio%20forecasts.jpg" alt=""></div>
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“The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have recorded a sharp turnaround in the 2nd half of 2019 following on from the surprise result of the Federal Election, interest rate cuts, the loosening of credit restrictions and ongoing strong population growth rates," SQM Research boss Louis Christopher says.
"These factors are expected to drive the national housing market into 2020. In a close call, APRA is expected to not immediately intervene despite the strong price rises."
Christopher notes however he has some misgivings on the sustainability of the new recovery.
"Sydney and Melbourne are rising from an overvalued point. Long term, our two largest housing markets look vulnerable and forever reliant on cheap credit. Housing debt, while falling compared to GDP over 2019, is still very high.
"Better value can definitely found elsewhere such as Perth and Brisbane”, said Christopher.
Nationally SQM believe dwellings will rise between seven per cent and 11 per cent.
At the most unlikely end of the scale, scenario four, if rates were cut to 0 and quantitative easing begins, then house prices in Sydney and Melbourne could be flat, or see marginal gains.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne house prices tipped to rise by up to 15 per cent: SQM Research

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There seems to be no stopping the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, with strong growth forecasts for 2020 emerging off the back of the near two year downturn.
NAB have forecast house values in the two major capital city markets to rise 7.4 per cent in 2020.
"We have revised up our expectations for residential property prices," NAB chief economist Alan Oster advised.
"Prices have risen relatively sharply over the past 3 months after bottoming in April - led by gains in Sydney and Melbourne.
"Overall, we now expect the CoreLogic 8-Capital City house price index to be down around -0.6% in 2019, but to return to positive reads in Melbourne and Sydney.
"We expect prices to continue to rise at a moderate pace in 2020, lifting by 4.5% over the year.
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NAB said they changed their forecast given the "significant adjustment" in prices on the east coast since mid-2017 after 15 per cent and 11 per cent peak to trough declines in Melbourne and Sydney.
"Despite these declines being relatively large, the adjustment appears to have occurred in an orderly manner following earlier prudential tightening and waning of domestic and foreign investor demand," NAB said.
"These adjustments also followed a period of exceptional growth, with Sydney prices having increased by over 70% in the 5 years prior to the downturn, while Melbourne prices were up over 50%."
NAB believe market activity will remain weak despite the stabilisation in prices.
"Dwelling investment is expected to decline relatively sharply over the next few quarters - though from a high base.
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"While the pipeline of work to be done remains high, it is likely this will be quickly eroded with high rates of work done. 
"Building approvals have continued to trend down, suggesting little replenishment to the flow of new work."
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The NAB Residential Property Index <a href="/news/nab-residential-property-index-ticks-into-positive-for-first-time-since-mid-2018">has moved back into positive territory</a> for the first time since mid-2018, reflecting the uptick in market activity in recent months.
NAB has <a href="/news/melbourne-apartments-to-outperform-sydney-in-2020-nab">forecast stronger growth in Melbourne apartments in 2020</a> compared to Sydney.
 
 
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Sydney and Melbourne house values to rise over seven percent in 2020: NAB

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Australia is set to ride the global growth wave.
 We forecast above-trend (and above-consensus) growth of 3.2% in 2018.
An improving business sector and tightening labour market should lift wages growth, supporting household spending.
We expect the RBA to start lifting its cash rate around mid- 2018 and see the AUD rising to US84 cents in 2018.
Hangin’ ten on a global wave 
A wave of global growth is gaining momentum and should support Australia’s economy in a number of ways. First, commodity prices have lifted, boosting national incomes, corporate profitability, and tax revenues. Second, rising global demand is supporting demand for exports of energy commodities, high-quality food products, and tourism and education. Finally, the lift in global optimism is supporting a pick-up in business conditions, driving rising local investment and hiring. 
We expect GDP growth to pick up from 2.4% in 2017 to 3.2% in 2018 (consensus is 2.8%). This outlook is underpinned by HSBC’s above-consensus China growth forecast (6.7% versus 6.4%) and our view that the lift in local business conditions will continue to support hiring, which, as it tightens the labour market, should drive a pick-up in wage growth. The lift in wage and jobs growth is expected to support stronger growth in household incomes, consumer spending, and tax revenues. 
Although Australia’s housing construction boom is coming to its end, we expect the drag to be more than offset by a stabilisation in mining investment (after significant declines in previous years), a pick-up in investment in urban infrastructure, and by rising business investment. Overall, investment is set to rise solidly in 2018. 
We see house price growth slowing in 2018, after a five-year boom. However, we do not expect significant price falls, as the market is supported by strong population growth, some expected loosening of prudential settings, and mortgage rates that are still historically low (despite our view that they will edge higher in 2018). 
The clearest signs of improvement in the economy are in the labour market. Jobs growth has been strong and the timely indicators suggest continued solid momentum. We expect the unemployment rate to fall to a ‘full employment’ level in 2018, supporting a pick-up in wages growth. We also expect growth in 2018 to be the most broad-based across regions and industries in more than a decade, which should see increased demand for skills across a wide range of areas, supporting wages growth. 
We expect the RBA to lift its cash rate in 2018, with a first hike pencilled in for Q2. With hikes expected, we see the AUD rising to US84 cents in 2018. 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC.  
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Australia in 2018 : Surfs up! Cash rate too! Riding the global growth wave

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Australia’s housing market will likely record moderated dwelling price rises in 2018, with Melbourne again being the top mainland performer, according to SQM housing expert Louis Christopher in his end of year review.
In 2018, Mr Christopher expects national house prices to rise between four and eight percent.
It will be led on the mainland by Melbourne with a gain of seven to 12 per cent.
Hobart will be even stronger at eight to 13 per cent.
SQM tips Canberra will show five to nine per cent price growth.
 Sydney house prices are forecast to rise four to eight per cent. 
Perth will tick over into mildly positive territory, with small gains tipped in Adelaide and Brisbane.
His SQM tips are unamended from his full October annual report.
His tips of between 4 percent to 8 percent in 2018 represent a fall from a growth rate of what has been around 4.2 percent national growth over the past 12 months with a national median price of $549,000, well below the 5.8 percent rise in values in 2016 and 9.2 percent gain in 2015.
Melbourne’s property market will lose some momentum, according to predictions in Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report. 
Offsetting a slowdown in Melbourne and Sydney will be first-year property market recoveries for Perth and Darwin and the ongoing boom in Hobart’s property market, which is set to record the highest level of price growth of any capital city at between 8 percent to 13 percent, Christopher said.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/18/Crash1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Crash1.jpg" alt="">
 
SQM Research tipped 2017 capital city house price growth to have been between six to 12 per cent - with Corelogic daily index showing a 4 percent rise across its five capital city index for 2017.
The SQM Research boss acknowledges his 2017 forecast for Sydney house prices to surge 11 to 16 per cent was an over-estimate, according to The Australian Financial Review, given APRA moved earlier that Christopher anticipated.
"The Sydney market was picking steam earlier this year. But APRA acted earlier than we forecasted. Our forecast assumed they would step in the market sometime in the third quarter," he said.
Christopher acknowledged the APRA move was "prudent."
"At the end of the year the market was flat with a number of areas recording some price falls," <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://vimeo.com/247084937" target="_blank">he told a Harris Partners Talking property vimeo</a>.
It was March when the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority announced all deposit-taking institutions were to cut back on origination of interest-only loans to a maximum 30 per cent of total lending.
"Sydney was an overvalued market to begin with so was more susceptible," Christopher advised as to why Sydney bore the brunt of the turndown.
SQM's 2017 Boom and Bust Report scenario forecasted an acceleration of dwelling price rises in Sydney and Melbourne with Sydney dwelling prices forecasted to rise 11 percent to 16 percent for the 2017 calendar year, while Melbourne was forecasted to rise by 10 percent to 15 percent.  
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<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/11/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-11%20at%209.46.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>The forecast assumed a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA until late 2017. </div>
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<div>"I think the odds are reasonably high that APRA is going to remain relatively quiet over the course of 2018, and indeed we are aware the banks are now under the required threshold set by APRA for investor credit growth and interest only loans, so the banks actually have a buffer to expand their lending book next year," Christopher said last month.</div>
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<div>"We are a little bit more positive than perhaps some analysts for Sydney (in 2018)," Christopher affirmed.</div>
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