Cranes

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<p>Sydney record its fourth consecutive small fall in cranes, according to the Q1 2021 RLB Crane index.</p>

<p>The index has now fallen from 197 in Q3 2019 to 177 currently. The decrease of six index points represents a net loss of 11 cranes for this edition.</p>

<p>During the past six months there have been 155 cranes removed throughout Sydney and 144 new cranes added, with 286 cranes currently across Sydney.</p>

<p>Domenic Schiafone, Rider Levett Bucknall’s Oceania Director of Research and Development commented, “these past six months has seen the country slowly accelerate towards a post covid ‘new normal’. </p>

<p><img alt="" height="890" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/sydney_rlb.jpg" width="1500"></p>

<p>“The federal government’s stimulus measures have assisted the economy but the impact on construction is seeing the industry operate at two speeds.</p>

<p>"Residential detached housing, assisted by both federal and state incentives, does not appear to have suffered from any COVID hangover at this stage. Government sponsored civil projects continue to expand across the nation while education and civic projects also have grown sharply this edition,” he said. </p>

<p>Sydney's residential sector has seen the largest net loss of cranes with the commencement of 87 new cranes and the removal of 119, bringing the total count to 195, the lowest number of residential cranes since Q4 2015.</p>

<p>Residential cranes still make up 68.2% of total crane activity.</p>

<p>The largest development based of crane number is the 180 George development in Parramatta with four cranes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=8590]</p>

<p>Across Sydney’s five main regions, decreases were seen in the west, inner city and east whilst increases were seen in the north and south region. The increase of fourteen cranes in the north was the largest growth region. West Sydney in comparison recorded the biggest decrease of thirteen cranes.</p>

<p>Inner Sydney saw 44 cranes added with the removal of 53 cranes, bringing the total crane count to 83, the lowest number of inner Sydney cranes since Q1 2016.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758]</p>

<p>Residential cranes fell by eight cranes in Sydney's east, with eight new cranes added and 16 removed. The residential sector still makes up 88% of crane activity in the east.</p>

<p>Cranes across the north recorded a rise of 14 cranes to now total 71. A total of 39 cranes were added to sites and 25 cranes were removed.</p>

<p>Residential cranes continue to be centred on the main arterial corridors in the north and can be found in 30 suburbs including Asquith, Carlingford, Castle hill, Cremorne, Crows nest, Dee Why, Epping, Gladesville, Gordon, Hornsby, Lane Cove, Lane Cove north, Macquarie Park Manly, Manly Vale, Maroubra, Meadowbank, Melrose Park, Narrabeen, Neutral Bay, Northbridge, Palm Beach, Pymble, Ryde, Seaforth, St Leonards, Thornleigh, Turramurra, Warrawee and Wentworthville.</p>

<p>Residential cranes across the south were sighted in 19 suburbs including Arncliffe, Beverley Park, Bexley north, Blakehurst, Caringbah, Cronulla, Dolls Point, Engadine, Hurstville, Kogarah, Kyle Bay, Miranda, Oran Park, Ramsgate, Redfern, South Hurstville, Sutherland and Woolloware.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6798]</p>

<p>The region of Sydney West saw 31 new cranes and 44 removals bringing the region’s total to 61. The drop of 13 cranes was due to the completion of a number of residential projects across the region.</p>

<p>Residential cranes fell by 15 for this period. 46 residential cranes are situated in 22 suburbs across the west. Suburbs include Bankstown, Belfield, Blacktown, Canterbury, dundas, Edmondson Park fairfield, Granville, Jordan Springs, Liverpool, Mays hill, Merrylands, Mount druitt, Padstow, Parramatta, Penrith, Rouse hill, Schofields, Seven hills, St Marys, Villawood and Westmead.</p>

<p>Residential cranes were removed from projects in Bankstown, Belfield, Casula, Edmondson Park, Granville, Liverpool, Merrylands, Mount druitt, Parramatta, Penrith, Punchbowl, Rouse hill, Schofields, Sefton, and Westmead.</p>

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The largest development based of crane number is the 180 George development in Parramatta with four cranes.



Joel Robinson

Sydney crane watch: 87 new residential cranes added across Sydney, but 119 removed

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">There are much softer numbers for construction in Q3 2018, feeding into the GDP result. </p>
<div>Somewhat old news by now, but the value of apartment building work done peaked somewhere between April and June this year, with the pipeline falling away now.</div>
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<div>The value of apartment building work two peaked about two years ago in Queensland, with the unit market in Brisbane now looking much more in equilibrium than it was. </div>
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<div>The September quarter also saw a much weaker result for engineering, and this was in spite on the tremendous ongoing strength in infrastructure construction in New South Wales and Victoria. </div>
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<div>The slowdown reflected weaker activity levels in Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia, as well as dramatic drop off in the Northern Territory as the Ichthys LNG project now transitions to the production phase. </div>
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<div class="separator">Overall, a weak result across all sectors of construction: new houses, new apartments (ex-Sydney), commercial, and engineering. </div>
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<div class="separator"><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Construction is weakening, that means fewer cranes: Pete Wargent

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<p>The continuation of construction jobs in the property industry looms as the big issue that will likely shape the 2020 property market trajectory.</p>
<p>Sydney apartment approvals have taken a dive and new house approvals are also in decline.</p>
<p>Only 830 attached dwellings were approved across Sydney in October, dramatically down on past Octobers.</p>
<p>The same month last year saw 2400 approvals, with 3700 in October 2017; 3100 in October 2016 and 4000 in October 2015. </p>
<p>Sydney is not alone in declining approval figures with the trend apparent in Melbourne and Brisbane. </p>
<p>The trend threatens employment continuity. Having a job ensures mortgage arrears remains low amid highly indebted households.</p>
<p>These building sites jobs are crucial to assist in the overall health of the wider economy.</p>
<p>The number of cranes on our skyline always provide an insight into the cyclical urban economic trends.</p>
<p>Interestingly the crane numbers in Sydney have yet to show any decline in 2019, in fact they have increased by nine to 319, according to the most recent quarterly edition of the RLB Crane Index.</p>
<p>The 2017 peak saw 350 Sydney cranes in the index, which began in 2012.</p>
<p>Residential cranes dominate with 73% of all cranes assisting in the construction of future dwellings.</p>
<p>The residential sector remained strong with 233 cranes, up one from six months ago. </p>
<p>Strong growth within the commercial office sector saw an additional net six cranes.</p>
<p>Sydney saw 189 cranes added to sites indicating a strong forward workflow while some 180 cranes were removed from completed developments in the past six months.</p>
<p>Cranes across Sydney are following the significant spend on transport infrastructures, especially north along the Pacific Highway, west along Parramatta Road, northeast along the M2 and south along the Kingsway.</p>
<p>Crane activity has declined in the north, but risen in the south, the east and inner Sydney. </p>
<p>The most significant addition was seven cranes at Meriton’s Pagewood Green. Crane removals saw four taken down at the Greenland’s development in North Ryde along with Ganellan’s nearby Delhi Road project.</p>
<p>Currently Sydney has 42% of all cranes erected nationally, while Melbourne contributes 28%, and Brisbane 7.5%.</p>
<p>Sydney’s dominance has fallen from the high of 52% in 2017.</p>
<p>In the first quarter of 2019 there were 735 cranes counted across Australia, with 530 for residential projects and 205 non-residential developments, including offices, transportation, hotels, education, health and retail.</p>
<p>There were no cities within the index that recorded crane falls in the double digits, a sign that the industry has not yet entered into the economic cycle of falling demand as predicted by some.</p>
<p>But continuity within the typical boom-bust building-buying cycle has never been easy.</p>
<p>And the emerging pipeline certainly doesn't look pretty. The national monthly building approvals have trended lower from about 20,000 to 13,000, which property commentator Pete Wargent suggested "looks very much like a recessionary trend".</p>
<p>Rolling annual approvals are now down from the 2016 peak of 242,000 to 173,000.</p>
<p>Of course securing rezoning and approvals take time. </p>
<p>“It takes twice as long to have a DA processed in NSW as it does in Victoria and three times as long as in Queensland," Urban Taskforce CEO Tom Forrest said recently.</p>
<p>It is to be hoped the residential price growth experienced in recent months will reignite developer activity in buying sites for apartment construction.</p>
<p>All those tradies in their high visibility vests are counting on it. </p>
<p><em>This article first appeared in </em>The Daily Telegraph. </p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Fewer apartment approvals, but Sydney crane trends signal construction strength 

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<p>The pausing of new housing approvals in selected suburbs across Sydney by the NSW Planning Minister Anthony Roberts comes at a pivotal period in the construction boom phase.</p>
<p><span>Capturing understandable community concerns, Roberts said councils needed “to take a bit of a breath” to be able to play catch up with infrastructure.</span></p>
<p><span>But the intervention could reap havoc as property developers seek out alternate projects in less congested suburbs or pack up altogether. </span></p>
<p>Sydney’s crane construction count has already recently eased from its late 2017 peak.</p>
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<p>There are currently 346 cranes on the Sydney skyline, down from the 350 last October. Of these some 253 are residential cranes spread nicely across 103 suburbs.</p>
<p data-removed-style="letter-spacing:0.001em;">“Every single crane in the sky is more evidence of another home, another school, another hospital, another business in our capital,” NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet said.</p>
<p>Epping, Wolli Creek, Parramatta, Burwood, Mascot, Homebush, Lane Cove, Lewisham, Zetland, Leichhardt, Surry Hills sit among the recent top construction localities. </p>
<p>Currently Sydney has 51 percent of all cranes erected nationally, while Melbourne contributed 23 percent and Brisbane 10 percent, according to the latest edition of the Rider Levett Bucknall Crane index which highlights the vital continuing input of the construction sector within Australia’s economy.</p>
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<p>The current Sydney crane count saw fewer residential cranes, but this was offset as the non-residential sector of offices, hotels and retail projects grew.</p>
<p>The net loss of four cranes within Sydney was the first fall since the commencement of the index in 2012, which signals the emerging downturn in the off the plan apartment construction sites and the construction jobs they create.</p>
<p>Sydney saw 133 residential cranes removed after project completions over the past six months with 88 new additions.</p>
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<p><span>The CBD and surrounding suburbs have 34 (10 percent) of the installed cranes, the eastern suburbs have 11 (3 percent), the north has 98 (28 percent), the south has 88 (25 percent), the west has 109 (32 percent) and the Wollongong region had 6 (2 percent).</span></p>
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<p>While residential construction has begun eased, infrastructure investment by the NSW government has increased, which has resulted in continued, high demand for jobs.</p>
<p>All those tradies in high visibility vests are what's underpinning NSW's economic progress which has seen well over 300,000 extra jobs over the past three years.</p>
<p>The late afternoon line of tradie utes I saw heading in and out of Warriewood on Sydney's northern beaches on a recent visit emphasised their importance to me.</p>
<p>Half had been building new homes in emerging house and land estates, while the others were coming back to their recently purchased homes from project sites elsewhere in Sydney.</p>
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<p data-removed-style="letter-spacing:0.001em;">“Every single crane in the sky is more evidence of another home, another school, another hospital, another business in our capital,” NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet recently said.</p>
<p>But halt the new housing rollout and it will extenuate the slowing of the highly cyclical residential sector, already impacted by the emerging credit squeeze arising from official regulatory decisions and the finance industry royal commission. </p>
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Sydney has over half the cranes in the sky nationally, but numbers easing

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<p>It's been an exciting few years for Australian crane-spotters, but the peak is now in, at least for the residential sector.</p>
<p>In fact, the most active quarter for residential building work done was all the way back in June 2016; it just mightn't feel that way if you live in Sydney. </p>
<p>Looking at the value of work done on new houses, the uplift through this cycle only looks moderately impressive, with a steady contraction underway, broadly since 2015.</p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NpaiNlbtoLs/WhrQSpMYoUI/AAAAAAAAnMM/KS0g8VInmno0DgcEwUMEvmoSSZJJ05cLACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1356"></p>
<p>Of course, this cycle has been far more notable for the record building of higher density projects.</p>
<p>This dynamic has helped to address an inherent undersupply of capital city housing, especially in a number of inner suburban areas where land availability had previously been limited.</p>
<p><strong>Crane your neck...the peak is in</strong></p>
<p>Jonathan Kearns from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) noted in a speech this week that attached dwelling approvals have soared from less than half those of detached dwellings under a decade ago, to almost on par across recent years. </p>
<p>The annual number of attached dwellings approved peaked more than a year ago back in the September quarter of 2016, but with longer build times there can be a risk that completions peak just as the residential market turns down. </p>
<p>If it feels as though Sydney developers are still building new townhouses and apartments like the clappers, then this is well borne out by the statistics. </p>
<p>Indeed, New South Wales is propping up the national figures, although even here the peak is probably imminent.</p>
<p>In Victoria, attached building activity levels have been fairly flat now for about one and a half years, while in both Queensland and Western Australia activity has been falling quite significantly throughout 2017. </p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-e6pzF7oRvbY/WhrQTP7q2hI/AAAAAAAAnMU/tggG6bw6xBE9TpFoChCeTRyo9ckb5XadgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="402" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1319"></p>
<p>The scale on this chart matches that for detached housing, and shows how Sydney has shifted markedly towards higher density living over the past two decades (while Melbourne has simply seen lots of dwellings built of all types, both in the inner city and on the urban fringe). </p>
<p><strong>Shift in composition</strong></p>
<p>Brisbane's dwelling stock historically comprised only a very small share of apartments, but the total stock of attached dwellings has now lifted by more than one-third since 2015, which is remarkable, with completions set to peak this year.</p>
<p>Perth has also seen a strong uplift from a comparatively small stock of existing units.</p>
<p>Despite this, the RBA speech noted that apartments in Perth and Brisbane have witnessed only small median price falls in recent years.</p>
<p>To date there have not been widespread reports of valuations at settlement being lower than off the plan purchase prices, nor has there been a marked increase in settlement failures or arrears.</p>
<p>The RBA also noted that purchases by foreign buyers accounted for just 10-15% of new construction (and about a quarter of new apartments), which intuitively feels low, although the share is higher in Sydney and Melbourne. Of these offshore buyers, about ¾ hailed from China.</p>
<p>Although residential building is now turning down, to date the downturn has been only moderate.</p>
<p>Moreover, there is also now a strong pipeline of infrastructure projects, especially in New South Wales, which might help to explain why the reported monthly unemployment rate of only 3.9% for Greater Sydney has not been lower since 2005. </p>
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Crane watch reaches its peak: Pete Wargent

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<p>Sydney has a record 350 cranes constructing mostly residential apartments around the city.</p>
<p>Melbourne sits a distant second with around 150 cranes on the skyline, according to the RLB Crane index, published bi-annually by Rider Levett Bucknall.</p>
<p>Some 109 suburbs in Sydney currently have residential cranes. </p>
<p data-removed-style="letter-spacing:0.001em;">“Every single crane in the sky is more evidence of another home, another school, another hospital, another business in our capital,” NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet said.</p>
<p>Epping leads the Sydney residential count with 16, followed by Wolli Creek with 13, Parramatta with 10 and Burwood's nine. Mascot, Homebush, Lane Cove, Lewisham, Zetland, Leichhardt, Surry Hills, Ashfield, Auburn, Flemington, Meadowbank, Mosman, Ryde and Waterloo make up the top 18 construction localities. </p>
<p>Apartment buyers are going to be spoilt for choice across NSW as the number of units under construction hits all time highs.</p>
<p>The number of new units under construction sits at 64,470 in NSW, up on the 17,100 long term average.</p>
<p>Until five years ago, the most apartments being built in NSW at any one time was 25,000.</p>
<p>There are also 17,845 new houses currently under construction in NSW, slightly higher then the 13,500 long-term average.</p>
<p>The volume of new housing stock under construction sits at "dizzying heights," the CoreLogic analyst Cameron Kusher suggested, noting the surge in stock is clearly being driven by units. </p>
<p>"This is probably to do with the fact that many property purchasers in NSW can simply no longer afford houses particularly in Sydney so units become their only housing purchase option, Kusher added. </p>
<p>This current construction surge is not confined to NSW as the Australian Bureau of Statistics calculated around 215,000 dwellings are under construction nationally, against the 10 year average of 153,000.</p>
<p>The national figure sees around 63,000 houses and 152,000 units under construction nationally against the long-run average of 48,000 houses and 39,000 units.</p>
<p>The building activity data coincides with data showing the large increase in population fuelling housing demand.  </p>
<p>It has been calculated 1650 new people have been calling Sydney home every week since 2011.</p>
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<p>Over the past two years the Reserve Bank has regularly highlighted the potential risks posed by the large pipeline of apartment construction, but interestingly only in Melbourne and Brisbane where new apartments have represented a larger proportionate addition to supply.</p>
<p>Last week the RBA's latest Financial Stability Review did however note reports of small declines in prices in "a few" Sydney apartment development projects. </p>
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<p>Substantial additions to the stock of apartments in particular locations certainly raise the possibility of price falls or subdued growth as the new stock gets absorbed. </p>
<p>So off the plan buyers approaching settlement will need to realise that tighter financing conditions are sometimes seeing valuations below the purchase contract price.</p>
<p>They will need to look around for finance and come up with a bigger deposit, possibly as much as 30 percent.</p>
<p>There are going to be suburbs that fare better than others when it comes to holding their value.</p>
<p>It is important to note the surge in unit stock takes time to build and the delivery of more stock can be slowed considerably.</p>
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Epping leads Sydney crane count followed by Wolli Creek 

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<p>Analysis of RLB's crane index shows about 57 per cent of cranes across Brisbane's skyline are located inside areas flagged by lenders as problem spots with restricted lending.</p>
<p>Nationally some 239 cranes in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Gold Coast and Adelaide are within city postcodes that have been marked out by National Australia Bank and AMP where buyers may, if finance is forthcoming, then have to come up with 10% to 20% more equity on settlement.</p>
<p>The apartment settlement risks rise as the off the plan buyers didn't expect and can't match this financing requirement.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/05/Crane-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/05/Crane-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>Around 38 percent of the cranes building Australia's apartments due for completion in the next two years sit in the postcodes currently known to have been "blacklisted" by lenders.</p>
<p>Sydney and Melbourne have the lowest proportion of cranes in "blacklist" areas, at about 32 per cent each. </p>
<p>In Sydney, where nearly 85 per cent of its cranes were employed on residential projects, the suburbs deemed risky by lenders were spread in a ring stretching from Hurstville in the south through Auburn and Parramatta in the inner west to Epping and Chatswood on the north shore.</p>
<p>Brisbane, with nearly 57 per cent of all cranes located in problem postcodes, ranks the highest ratio of all the cities especially in the north-south spine that includes the Newstead, Fortitude Valley and West End areas.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/05/Crane-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/05/Crane-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>RLB compared the postcodes of individual crane locations with suburbs singled out by lenders for being riskier places to lend.  </p>
<p>Sydney cranes</p>
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<p>JLL's national director for Residential Development Valuations &amp; Advisory, Troy Linnane, told The Australian Financial Review that depending on project type, developer and location new apartments sold off the plan late in the cycle had a "higher risk of capital value depreciation".</p>
<p>"These apartments were/are being sold at higher rates per metre due to increases in cost of sale such as agents' commissions, marketing costs, incentives and higher construction costs," Mr Linnane said. "But there are projects and there are projects – so this would not necessarily apply to all, so it does depend on the project – quality and standard of amenity."</p>
<p>Melbourne cranes</p>
<p><img src="https://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/p/1/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138295.jpg" alt="Inner Melbourne also shows high numbers of cranes in areas highlighted by NAB (purple) and AMP (blue) but there is a ..." width="620" data-src="/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/p/1/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138295.jpg"></p>
<p>Inner Melbourne also shows high numbers of cranes in areas highlighted by NAB (purple) and AMP (blue) but there is a majority outside those postcodes.<cite><br></cite></p>
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<p>"This level of activity and balancing of risk seems to suggest a responsible and sustainable market for the foreseeable future," RLB director of research and development Stephen Ballesty told The Australian Financial Review.</p>
<p>It was noted NAB and AMP together accounted for just under 15 per cent of Australia's total owner-occupier loans and 19 per cent of property loans to investors in October, figures from regulator APRA show.</p>
<p>The banks also have changing lending criteria, their conditions and credit practices change frequently and the timing of projects as well as cycle of the geographic and demographic markets in which they operate mean their risk profiles vary.</p>
<p>The latest report showed the individual crane counts in Brisbane and Melbourne – the two cities most at risk of an oversupply of apartments – falling from the prior count in March.</p>
<p>Brisbane cranes</p>
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<div><img src="https://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/p/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138015.jpg" alt="Much of Brisbane's crane development is focused in the city, coinciding with areas of concern for lenders." width="620" data-src="/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/p/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138015.jpg"></div>
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<div>Much of Brisbane's crane development is focused in the city, coinciding with areas of concern for lenders.</div>
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<p>"It could be that there has been increased investor activity in Brisbane due to the current differential between residential prices particularly when compared to Sydney," Mr Ballesty said.</p>
<p>Perth cranes</p>
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<div><img src="https://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/p/7/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138107.jpg" alt="Just over half of Perth's cranes are in areas of concern for NAB (purple)." width="620" data-src="/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/p/7/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138107.jpg"></div>
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<div>Just over half of Perth's cranes are in areas of concern for NAB (purple).<cite><br></cite>
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<div>Adelaide cranes</div>
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<p><img src="https://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/o/p/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138468.jpg" alt="Just over half of Adelaide's cranes are in areas of concern for NAB (purple) as well. " width="620" data-src="/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/o/p/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138468.jpg"></p>
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<div>Just over half of Adelaide's cranes are in areas of concern for NAB (purple) as well.<cite><br></cite>
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<p>Just over half of Perth's cranes were in areas of concern, which included the CBD and city fringe. It was a similar in Adelaide.</p>
<p>Gold Coast had a low proportion of cranes in areas of concern.</p>
<p>Gold Coast cranes</p>
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<div><img src="https://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/o/w/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138375.jpg" alt="In Gold Coast, the proportion of cranes in 'blacklist' areas is still small. " width="620" data-src="/content/dam/images/g/t/g/q/o/w/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1483530138375.jpg"></div>
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<div>In Gold Coast, the proportion of cranes in 'blacklist' areas is still small. <cite><br></cite>
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