Commercial Demand

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Demand from local developers and Chinese investors in CBD office markets is spilling over into the suburb market, according to new research from Colliers International.
Colliers International Managing Director of Capital Markets &amp; Investment Sales John Marasco said a number of groups, have recently created listed metropolitan office funds but offshore and private buyers are creating demand for metropolitan office space.
"Institutional buyers traditionally prefer the established metropolitan markets of Parramatta, North Sydney and St Leonards in Sydney, Fortitude Valley and West End in Brisbane, and St Kilda Road and Southbank in Melbourne,” he said.
“Given the strong demand for quality assets in our metropolitan markets, it is not surprising that there has been yield compression across most precincts. In Parramatta, yields for A grade stock now average 7.63%, down from 8% per cent in March 2015.
“In St Leonards, yields have compressed by 50bp over the six months to September 2015, to now average 8%, while in Melbourne, St Kilda Road A Grade yields now average 7.63%, down from 7.88%  in March 2015, and City Fringe yields now average 7%."
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CBD office demand spilling into metro markets

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Sentiment in the Australian commercial property market hit a new high in Q4, but the headline index continues to mask big differences across property sectors and states, according to NAB’s quarterly tracker on the state of the sector.
The NAB Commercial Property Index rose to +17 points in Q4 from +10 in Q3, a new high since it first came out in 2010.
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<img src="/images/2016/03/2/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-02%20at%2012.16.02%20PM.png" alt="">
By sector, CBD hotels and office markets are leading the way. NSW and Victoria are also out-performing, but WA is lagging considerably, it showed.
Property professionals noted a deterioration in their funding conditions on both debt and equity fronts in Q4, with tighter credit conditions also reflected in higher pre-commitment hurdles for new developments. 
The improvement in the overall index was led by CBD hotels, followed by office and retail. Sentiment in industrial property markets fell and is now weakest overall. 
Looking ahead, property professionals operating in CBD hotel markets are most confident, which may reflect a shortage of supply and the broader pick up in tourism on the back of the lower AUD, along with a pick-up in business travel. 
<a href="/images/2016/03/2/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-02%20at%2012.15.56%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/2/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-02%20at%2012.15.56%20PM.png" alt="">
Confidence is lowest (albeit positive) among retail property operators, perhaps reflecting expectations that the impetus to household consumption from the housing market will wane through 2016 as house price growth slows. 
The headline Commercial Property Index also continues to hide some very big differences in performance by state. 
“NSW and Victoria remain at the forefront of the improvement in market sentiment, with WA still wallowing in deeply negative territory,” said NAB Group chief economist Alan Oster. 
NSW would remain the most optimistic state for commercial property in the next two years, with Queensland tipped to be the big improver and WA the most pessimistic. 
Survey respondents believe that CBD hotels will provide the best capital returns in the next 1-2 years (4% in each year), followed by office (1% &amp; 1.2%), with significantly higher returns in NSW and Victoria masking further big corrections in WA. Capital returns are expected to be lowest for retail property (0.4% &amp; 0.6%). 
<a href="/images/2016/03/2/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-02%20at%2012.18.46%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/2/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-02%20at%2012.18.46%20PM.png" alt="">
In leasing markets, office property is expected to provide the best returns over the next 1-2 years (0.7% &amp; 1.7%), with rental growth in NSW and Victoria leading the way. In contrast, office rents in WA are expected to continue falling heavily amid elevated and climbing vacancy rates, significant over-supply and weak tenant demand. 
In the national industrial market, the outlook for rents has been pared back a little (0.2% &amp; 0.4%) with rental returns for retail property also softer (0.2% &amp; 0.5%). 
Despite an overall improvement in commercial property market sentiment, the survey reveals that fewer developers are planning to start new works in the short term. 
“Funding issues may be playing a role here, with more developers indicating that their debt and equity funding situations had deteriorated,” said Oster. 
Tighter credit conditions are also being reflected in higher pre-commitment hurdles for new developments - up for the third consecutive quarter to 53.5% in Q4 and expected to tighten further over the next 6-12 months. 
Around 250 panel respondents participated in the Q4 2015 survey, consisting of real estate agents/managers, property developers, asset/fund managers and owners/investors. 
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Sentiment at record high in NAB Q4 commercial property survey  

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A Woolworths supermarket in Burnie on Tasmania's North West coast has been snapped up by a Melbourne investor for $18.1 million.
The property at 212-230 Mount Street was sold through an expression of interest campaign managed by Graeme Watson and Shaun Venables of Burgess Rawson.
The net rental from the single-tenanted property is $1,236,483 pa plus GST, implying a yield of 6.8 per cent.
The recently refurbished 4,000 sqm supermarket on the 10,978 sqm site is on a renewed 20-year lease to 2031 plus options to 2051.
It also comes with a car park for 195 vehicles.
The property was offloaded by a syndicate of three Tasmanian investors. 
Burnie, a major commercial centre and Tasmania's major port, has an estimated catchment population in excess of 50,000.
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Woolworths in Tasmania's Burnie bought by Melbourne investor for $18.1 million 

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Construction costs for industrial and commercial buildings remained unchanged in 2016 compared with last year, according to Burgess Rawson's latest 2016 Industrial Building Rates Update in Market View.

The indicative costs were compiled from one of Perth's leading industrial and commercial building companies and varied from $610 to $810 per sqm for gross building area, which was divided into three ranges spanning 500 to 5000 square metre, as evident from the following table.

<a href="/images/2016/04/26/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-26%20at%2010.17.21%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>

<img alt="" src="/images/2016/04/26/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-26%20at%2010.17.21%20PM.png">

<a href="/images/2016/04/26/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-26%20at%2010.45.23%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>

 <img alt="" src="/images/2016/04/26/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-26%20at%2010.45.23%20PM.png">

The development costs listed in the table above assume the following level of construction:

For warehouses: Concrete tilt construction; 8.5 m roof height; concrete floor; steel truss insulated roof and high bay lighting

For offices: Modern design with part glazed frontage, carpets, ceiling tiles, recessed lighting, ducted reverse cycle air conditioning, office component comprising about 10-15 percent of gross warehouse area.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5910]
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Commercial building costs unchanged from last year: Burgess Rawson

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In the race to adopt electric vehicles, Australia is <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/P233%20If%20you%20build%20it%20they%20will%20charge%20FINAL%20-%20October%202017.pdf" target="_blank">sputtering along in the slow lane</a>. Rather than growing, Australian sales of electric cars are actually in decline. In 2016 they represented just <a href="http://www.fcai.com.au/sales/cars" target="_blank">0.02% of new car sales</a> – even lower than in 2013.
Contrast that with Norway, the country with the highest levels of electric car adoption. <a href="http://www.eafo.eu/europe" target="_blank">Almost 30% of new cars sold there in 2016 were electric</a>.
Why are Australian motorists rejecting electric cars while those in other advanced economies are <a href="http://www.eafo.eu/europe" target="_blank">embracing them</a>? As the National Roads and Motorists’ Association (NRMA) has <a href="http://thehub.nrma.com.au/drive/what-you-need-know-about-electric-cars" target="_blank">previously pointed out</a>, high vehicle prices are an obvious barrier. But that is only part of the answer.
Our current research, in which we used online questionnaires to survey Australian motorists’ attitudes to electric vehicles, suggests that a comprehensive network of recharging stations, particularly on popular intercity routes, is essential to encourage drivers to go electric. This seems to be even more important than subsidising the cost of the cars themselves.
Rechargers on highways, in country towns and at service centres need to be fast and convenient, so that motorists aren’t <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fast-charge-plugs-do-not-fit-all-electric-cars/" target="_blank">unduly delayed</a>. Without the right charging infrastructure, there is no foundation to allow Australian motorists to go electric with confidence.
The average Australian motorist drives 36km per day for all passenger vehicles (see table 8 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9208.0">here</a>). This is well within the <a href="https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au" target="_blank">range of modern fully electric vehicles</a> – more than 150km for the models on sale in Australia – and actually less than Norwegians, who drive <a href="https://www.toi.no/getfile.php?mmfileid=43161" target="_blank">more than 40km a day on average</a>.
Norwegian drivers also enjoy the <a href="http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_GlobalZEVAlliance_201509.pdf" target="_blank">highest proportion of rechargers in the world</a>. But on another criterion the world leader is Estonia. It’s credited as the first nation to build a <a href="http://elmo.ee/elmo/" target="_blank">country-wide network</a>, with a recharging station every 50km on major roads, and one in every town with a population of at least 5,000.
<h2>Bumps in the road</h2>
Every country that has successfully adopted electric cars has done so by providing an effective recharging network. But we can learn from what has gone wrong in some of these places too.
Our research suggests that governments need to ensure that recharging stations work for motorists, rather than just for the network providers. Recharge points should have standardised fittings, easy payment options such as credit and debit card facilities, and prompt maintenance – all features of existing fuel stations.
Imagine if you could only fill up with petrol by pre-registering with a network, such as Caltex or Shell, and making sure you had paid in advance before taking a long trip. It sounds ridiculous, but that is the situation electric motorists face in some places.
Britain has multiple subscriber-only recharging networks, which frequently have chargers that are out of order. Recently, sales of fully electric vehicles have stagnated and it has only been a surge in sales of plug-in hybrids that <a href="http://www.eafo.eu/content/united-kingdom" target="_blank">boosted sales to 1.45% in 2016, up from 1.09% in 2015</a>.
California has solved that problem by introducing <a href="http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB454" target="_blank">legislation</a> to ensure that motorists don’t have to join a network and can pay for the electricity by credit card. As a result of this and other measures, such as <a href="http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_EV-promotion-US-cities_20150729.pdf" target="_blank">privileged lane access and support for workplace recharging</a>, electric cars now represent <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-electric-vehicles-20170517-story" target="_blank">4.8% of Californian car sales</a>, far outstripping the <a href="https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" target="_blank">US average of 0.9% in 2016</a>.
<a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140AB2565" target="_blank">Another Californian law</a> ensures that the 40% of Californians who live in rental properties can <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2014/08/31/california-bill-renters-install-electric-car-charging-stations/" target="_blank">recharge their cars at home</a>. As Australians are increasingly living in high-rise developments, ensuring car parks have the capacity to recharge cars overnight will be critical. The technology exists to enable separate billing for each car, so making sure strata management allows installation will be essential for people in units and flats to adopt this low-polluting technology.
Introducing such legislation will be a necessary first step. China <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-%2010/china-s-fossil-fuel-deadline-shifts-focus-to-electric-car-race-j7fktx9z?mc_cid=5b63d2c68d&amp;mc_eid=5fb912b537" target="_blank">recently announced</a> that it is working towards a timetable to end production and sales of internal combustion engine vehicles. It’s a good example, which Australia would be wise to follow.
This will be critical if we are to reduce transport-related emissions, toxic air pollution and noise, and improve our fuel security in the face of increasingly unstable geopolitical circumstances and our <a href="https://theconversation.com/running-on-empty-australias-risky-approach-to-oil-supplies-23619" target="_blank">growing dependence on imported fuel</a>.
Without an adequate recharging network, Australian motorists risk being left in the rear-view mirror as the rest of the world’s drivers go electric. With electric cars forecast to reach <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/the-electric-car-revolution-%20is-accelerating" target="_blank">price equivalency with petrol cars by 2025</a>, we need to help Australians overcome their anxieties about running out of charge before they reach their destination.
Governments can do this by mandating a comprehensive open-access recharging network to speed the uptake of electric vehicles. We won’t be able to fix the problem overnight but we have to get started. There is no shortage of other countries to look to for ideas.
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86478/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">This article was coauthored by <a href="http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/our-people/gail-broadbent" target="_blank">Gail Broadbent</a>, a postgraduate researcher at UNSW’s School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/graciela-metternicht-159393" target="_blank">Graciela Metternicht</a>, Professor of Environmental Geography, School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danielle-drozdzewski-254076" target="_blank">Danielle Drozdzewski</a>, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/negative-charge-why-is-australia-so-slow-at-adopting-electric-cars-86478" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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