Casual Job

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GUEST OBSERVER
Our analysis shows an economic downturn as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will dramatically increase rental stress for people with insecure or casual work. If the downturn persists this will place people in precarious jobs at higher risk of homelessness.
The scenario we explored is the effect of loss of casual work on people on very low incomes. We identify this at-risk group as those aged between 19 and 30 years, living independently with disposable incomes of A$600 a week from casual work or a combination of casual work and benefits.
They typically work in cafes, restaurants, catering, events, fast food and retail. These are the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/this-is-why-casual-workers-could-be-hardest-hit-by-coronavirus/12027382">jobs most immediately impacted by an economic slowdown</a>. It is estimated <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-25/australia-sees-increase-in-casual-workers-ai-job-threats/11043772">one in four Australian workers is casual</a>, although not all are on low incomes.
The infographic below illustrates the extreme rental stress a slowdown will cause the low-income casual workers. We have calculated average rent across the broader Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan areas. The infographic shows the impact on rental stress of losing up to A$300 per week of disposable income. The percentages represent the amount of income taken up by rent, with red indicating the most extreme rental stress.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321155/original/file-20200317-60932-19pvj8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Source: REIA median rental data (December, 2019), A Guide to Australian Government Payments, authors' calculations
For example, the top row shows a casual worker in Sydney sharing a two-bedroom flat earning A$604 a week had A$344 disposable income after rent. The final row shows an individual in Sydney with A$326 weekly income after losing work income. Their rent then takes up 80% of their income, leaving them with A$66 a week to live on after rent.
The potential impact of the downturn on the disposable income of people with very low incomes means they will be in extreme rental stress unless they have savings.
So do they have savings?
The federal government has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/australian-government-warned-not-to-drag-its-feet-on-help-for-casual-workers-in-coronavirus-crisis">suggested</a> casual workers have savings to tide them over. Our analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data suggests 38.9% of those earning A$600 or less per week have less than A$600 in savings to get them through. Over a quarter of this group are already in debt.
Another 26.6% of low-income casual workers have a month or less for things to get back to normal.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320900/original/file-20200316-27643-y5y5ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Average savings of people earning A$600 a week. Source: Income and Housing, Australia, 2017-18 (Australian Bureau of Statistics), Authors' calculations
These savings will be used up rapidly when average rent in a share house is A$133-220 per week in Melbourne and A$165-260 in Sydney. These rents include outer metropolitan areas, so rental stress in the inner cities will be worse, as our <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-share-house-rents-eat-up-most-of-newstart-leaving-less-than-100-a-week-to-live-on-123772">previous analysis</a> showed.
The downturn will affect a large number of people already on benefits because their income is partly from benefits and partly from earnings. According to <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-cff2ae8a-55e4-47db-a66d-e177fe0ac6a0/distribution/dist-dga-1fb71211-4e8a-4bf2-b659-148cd4d6972d/details?q=">data from the Department of Social Services</a>, 41% of Youth Allowance recipients, 28% of NewStart recipients and 36% of Parenting Payment single recipients are working and therefore receive part-rate allowances.
Will the first economic stimulus package help?
For people already receiving benefits the one-off <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus/households">A$750 stimulus payment</a> will help to tide them over for 3-4 weeks’ rent. But to date casual workers have not been included in that stimulus payment (unless they receive <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/family-tax-benefit">Family Tax Benefit</a>).
People who lose their casual work will be able to get the new <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/jobseeker-payment">JobSeeker payment</a> from March 20. It’s the same as the <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/newstart-allowance/how-much-you-can-get">NewStart rate</a> – A$326 per week (including average rent assistance) – so it is clear they will be in immediate rental stress.
 
It’s worth noting this rental crisis is compounded because NewStart has not kept pace with rental increases over the last 25 years. NewStart has been increased by CPI only. The chart below shows how wide the gap between Melbourne rent price increases and CPI has become.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320901/original/file-20200316-27648-dca69x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">Median increase in Melbourne rents and CPI, June 1999 – December 2019. Source: Rental Report, Department of Health &amp; Human Services (Dec 2019), Consumer Price Index (ABS), Authors' calculations
So what needs to be done?
The loss of income for casual workers will result in extreme rental stress for people who were already on low incomes. This issue demands urgent attention to prevent a homelessness epidemic. Agencies like the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/calls-for-housing-eviction-bans-during-coronavirus-outbreak/12060484?fbclid=IwAR0ND56d2GClAg-JNwdtQm6m59rcurdNjBV_M4kl9DbXKgFUDe-PB1q-Y1U">Council for Homeless Persons</a> are already calling for an immediate moratorium on evictions.
Landlords have a responsibility here as well since they benefit from continuity of rentals and the contribution of government policy to their wealth and assets. For example, low-income rents are paid out of a combination of regular earnings, benefit payments and rent assistance. These will now be supplemented because people on low incomes are likely to use the stimulus package to keep up.
The challenge for the government is to provide support to people on very low incomes that will see them through the entire COVID-19 crisis. One solution would be to immediately increase the JobSeeker payment to help people on low incomes ride out the downturn in casual work. Another solution would be to provide replacement income for casual workers affected by the downturn.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133782/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/simone-casey-130516">Simone Casey</a>, Research Associate, Future Social Service Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liss-ralston-295934">Liss Ralston</a>, Urban Statistician, Centre for Urban Transitions, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767">Swinburne University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-puts-casual-workers-at-risk-of-homelessness-unless-they-get-more-support-133782">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Coronavirus puts casual workers at risk of homelessness unless they get more support

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/82207/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Workers aren’t being compensated as much as they should be for precarious work in casual positions. 
One in four Australian employees today is a casual worker. Among younger workers (15-24 year olds) the numbers are higher still: more than half of them are casuals.
These jobs come without some of the benefits of permanent employment, such as paid annual holiday leave and sick leave. In exchange for giving up these entitlements, casual workers are supposed to receive a higher hourly rate of pay – known as a casual “loading”. 
But the costs of casual work are now outweighing the benefits in wages.
Costs and benefits of casual work
Casual jobs offer flexibility, but also come with costs. For workers, apart from missing out on paid leave, there are other compromises: less predictable working hours and earnings, and the prospect of dismissal without notice. Uncertainty about their future employment can hinder casual workers in other ways, such as making family arrangements, getting a mortgage, and juggling education with work. 
Not surprisingly, casual workers have lower expectations about keeping their current job. For example the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) found 19% expect to leave their job within 12 months, compared to 7% of other workers. Casuals are also much less likely to get work-related training, which limits their opportunities for skills development.
The employers of casual workers also face higher costs. High staff turnover adds to recruitment costs. But perhaps the main cost is the “loading” that casual workers are supposed to be paid on top of their ordinary hourly wage. 
Australia’s system of minimum wage awards specifies a casual loading of 25%. So, a casual worker paid under an award should get 25% more for each hour than another worker doing the same job on a permanent basis. In enterprise agreements, the casual loading varies by sector, but tends to be between 15 and 25%.
The practice of paying a casual loading developed for two reasons. One was to provide some compensation for workers missing out on paid leave. The other, quite different, motivation was to make casual employment more expensive and discourage excessive use of it. However this disincentive has not prevented the casual sector of the workforce from growing substantially.
Casual jobs aren’t much better paid
One approach in determining whether casual workers are paid more is simply to compare the hourly wages of casual and “non-casual” (permanent and fixed-term) employees in the same occupations. This can be done using data from the 2016 ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours. 
We compared median hourly wages for adult non-managerial employees, based on their ordinary earnings and hours of work (i.e. excluding overtime payments). If the median wage for casuals is higher than for non-casuals, there is a casual premium. If the median casual wage is lower, there is a penalty.
The 10 occupations below accounted for over half of all adult casual workers in 2016. In most of these occupations, there is a modest casual wage premium - in the order of 4-5%.
The size of the typical casual wage premium is much smaller, in most cases, than the loadings written into awards and agreements. Only one occupation (school teachers) has a premium (22%) in line with what might be expected.
Three of the 10 largest casual occupations actually penalise this sort of work. And overall for these 10 occupations there is a casual wage penalty of 5%. This method of analysis suggests that few casual workers enjoy substantially higher wages as a trade-off for paid leave.
Taking a closer look involves controlling for a wider range of differences between casual and non-casual workers. One major Australian study in 2005 compared wages after taking account of many factors other than occupation, including age, education, job location, and employer size. 
All else equal, it found that part-time, casual workers do receive an hourly wage premium over full-time, permanent workers. The premium is worth around 10%, on average, for men and between 4 and 7% for women.
These results imply that most casual workers (who are in part-time positions) can expect to receive higher hourly wages than comparable employees in full-time, permanent positions. However, the value of the benefit is again found to be less than would be expected, given the larger casual loadings mentioned in awards and agreements. 
It seems that while there is some short-term financial benefit to being a casual worker, this advantage is worth less in practice than on paper.
A recent study, using 14 years of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (HILDA), finds no evidence of any long-term pay benefit for casual workers. 
The study’s authors estimate that, among men, there is an average casual wage penalty of 10% - the opposite of what we should see if casual loadings fully offset the foregone leave and insecurity of casual jobs. Among female casual workers, there is also a wage penalty, but this is smaller, at around 4%. 
This study also finds that the size of the negative casual wage effect tends to reduce over time for individual workers, bringing them closer to equality with permanent workers. But very few casual workers out-earn permanent workers in the long-term.
Inferior jobs, but fewer alternatives
The evidence on hourly wage differences leads us to conclude that casual workers are not being adequately compensated for the lack of paid leave, or for other forms of insecurity they face. This makes casual jobs a less appealing option for workers.
This does not mean that all casual workers dislike their jobs – indeed, many are satisfied. But a clear-eyed look at what these jobs pay suggests their benefits are skewed in favour of employers.
Despite this, the choice for many workers - especially young jobseekers - is increasingly between a casual job or no job at all. Half of employed 15-24 year olds are in casual jobs. 
In a labour market characterised by high underemployment and intensifying job competition, young people with little or no work experience are understandably willing to make some sacrifices to get a start in the workforce. The option of “holding out” for a permanent job looks increasingly risky as these opportunities dwindle.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joshua-healy-104950" target="_blank">Joshua Healy </a>is Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Workplace Leadership, University of Melbourne.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/daniel-nicholson-315854" target="_blank">Daniel Nicholson</a> is Research Assistant, Industrial Relations, University of Melbourne.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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