Capital City

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<p>Fairly in line with market forecasts dwelling prices rose by +2.0 percent in the June 2016 quarter according to the ABS with Sydney (+2.8 percent),  Melbourne (+2.7 percent), and Brisbane (+1.1 percent).</p>
<p>Of the smaller capitals, Canberra also showed a solid increase of +2.2 percent. </p>
<p>The ABS indexes run back to September 2003 with the median house price (+98 percent) and attached dwelling price (+93 percent) having increased since that time. </p>
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<div align="justify">This latest move takes the total value of residential dwellings to beyond $6 trillion, an increase of +$1.6 trillion or +36 per cent since June 2012.</div>
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<div align="justify">The market is now accelerating in the third quarter according to Alan Oster, Chief Economist of National Australia Bank (you see what I did there?).</div>
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<div align="justify">Auction clearance rates have again approached record highs again in Sydney, and Oster predicts a substantial +4 percent gain in the harbour city for Q3, as well as +3.5 percent for Melbourne. </div>
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<div align="justify">Large capital cities lead</div>
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<div align="justify">House prices rose by +3.2 percent in Sydney in the June quarter, with attached dwelling prices showing a much steadier trajectory (both up and down) through the course of this cycle in rising by a further +2.0 percent. </div>
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<div align="justify">After six months of house price declines Sydney's all dwellings index hit a fresh all-time high, being +83.7 percent higher than in December 2008.</div>
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<div align="justify">Brisbane notched up its sixteenth consecutive quarterly gain with prices rising by +1.1 percent.</div>
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<div align="justify">Since Q3 2012 prices in Brisbane have recorded a studious recovery to rise by +18 percent, while Adelaide (+13 percent) and Hobart (+13 percent) have followed a similar, if slightly more subdued, trajectory. </div>
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<div align="justify">In the resources capitals prices have declined since the beginning of 2015 (click charts to expand).</div>
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<div align="justify"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong></div>
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<div align="justify">At the state level over the year to June the mean price has continued to rise in New South Wales (+$35,400), Victoria (+$31,100), Queensland (+$10,100), and South Australia (+$16,800). </div>
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<div align="justify">On the other hand the median price in Western Australia has retraced by $37,300 with a notable collapse having taken place up in the Pilbara, and there was also a decline in the Northern Territory mean price of $20,500. </div>
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<div align="justify">The total value of dwelling stock has increased significantly over the past four years in New South Wales (+$819 billion), Victoria ($+453 billion), and Queensland (+$169 billion).</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Supply response</span></strong></div>
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<div align="justify">Finally, the total number of residential dwellings increased by +46,900 in Victoria and +40,600 in New South Wales over the 2016 financial year. </div>
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<div align="justify">There are now more than 9.7 million dwellings in Australia.</div>
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<div align="justify">Over the past four years Victoria (+7.9 percent) has been far more successful at increasing the total size of its dwelling stock than New South Wales (+4.9 percent). </div>
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<div align="justify">From a lower base the uplift has been considerably more pronounced in the Northern Territory (+10.4 percent) and the ACT (+10.4 percent).</div>
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<div align="justify"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div align="justify">Overall, there were solid price gains in Q2 which generally matched market expectations.</div>
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<div align="justify">The ABS figures are retrospective, so market participants will be watching the market closely to see whether recent gains are sustained.</div>
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<div align="justify">In the 2015 calendar year in part due to cooling macroprudential regulatory measures the Sydney auction market softened considerably in the lead up to Christmas, before limping over the line. </div>
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<div align="justify">There are still a dozen weekends to go yet this year. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Capital city prices rose in Q2: Pete Wargent

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<p>Capital city dwelling values are yet to show declines, <span>according to CoreLogic RP Data's Hedonic Home Value Index, March 2016.</span></p>
<p><span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Perth and Darwin are the only cities to record negative value movements over the past year, according to CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless, who </span>said<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> o</span></span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">ver the past twelve months, house values rose by 6.6 per cent compared with a 4.7 per cent increase in unit values</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Declines (Perth and Darwin) from their recent peak which was more than twelve months ago have been modest at just 4.6 percent. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Sydney and Melbourne growth rates are moderating after a strong cycle of growth, while other cities are recording minimal shifts higher and lower."</span></p>
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Capital city dwelling values yet to show declines: CoreLogic RP Data

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<p><span>Some 1,824 capital city auctions held across Australia for the week ending 15 May with a combined preliminary clearance of 68.9 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>One year ago the figure was 77.5 percent.</span></p>
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Combined capital city clearance rates dip: CoreLogic RP Data

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The level of water stored by Australia’s capital cities has steadily fallen over the last six years. They are now collectively at 54.6% of capacity – a decline of 30% from 2013.</p>
<p>We’re going into a hot summer and Sydney has just announced <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/news/level-2-water-restrictions-to-start-across-sydney/" target="_blank">level two restrictions</a>, the toughest for any capital. Data from the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/water/dashboards/#/water-storages/summary/urban?location=Canberra" target="_blank">Bureau of Meteorology</a> shows other capital cities facing mixed results.</p>
<p>The results show that Darwin’s water supply has lost about 25% over the last year. On the plus side, Melbourne’s supply actually increased over 2019, having fallen below 50% earlier this year, and now sits on 63.9%.</p>
<p>While the national average is trending downwards, the patterns for each city are very different. Sydney and Perth water supplies have had contrasting journeys over the last six years. In October 2013 Perth’s supply was a very low 33.8% and Sydney was a comfortable 91%.</p>
<p>Now, for the first time in many years Perth does not have Australia’s lowest level of all capital city water storages. As of last week, Sydney has taken this unwanted distinction from Perth.</p>
<p>For Perth residents, the news is good as their surface water storages are at a six-year high of 46.4%. In Sydney they are worried, as they have a six-year low of 46.2%.</p>
<p>Sydney has experienced a steep decline over the last 30 months, from nearly full storages (96%) in April 2017. The speed and severity of the Sydney drought is starting to resemble previous dry spells. One was in the 1940s and the other was the Millennium drought.</p>
<p>Perth has lived with the most water stress of any capital city. They have had to contend with a steady 45-year decline in rain. The inflow of water into Perth’s dams has also <a href="https://www.watercorporation.com.au/water-supply/our-water-sources/securing-perth-supply" target="_blank">fallen dramatically</a>.</p>
<p>Perth has adapted to its drying climate by sourcing water from <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-perth-really-running-out-of-water-well-yes-and-no-90857" target="_blank">many different supplies</a>. It now uses its surface water storages for about 10% of its water supply. Much larger proportions of Perth’s supply comes from its two desalination plants, which unlike the other capitals are constantly in operation. It makes greater use of groundwater and highly treated recycled water. Perth also has permanent water restrictions.</p>
<p>Sydney’s desalination plant, after hibernating for seven years, is now supplying water. It was switched on in late January 2019 when Sydney supply hit 60%, and can supply 15% of water demand. Unusually perhaps, the desalinated water does not reach all parts of Sydney.</p>
<p>Sydney Water has announced plans to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/26/sydney-desalination-plant-to-double-in-size-as-dams-approach-critical-level" target="_blank">double the capacity</a> of the desalination plant. Construction is expected to <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/-/media/Files/DPE/Other/About-us/Metropolitan-Water/2017-Metropolitan-Water-Plan.pdf" target="_blank">begin soon</a>.</p>
<p>Melbourne and Brisbane water supplies are currently at similar levels. However, since 2013 Melbourne’s storages have generally been lower than Brisbane’s. Melbourne’s supply has risen in 2019 after good winter rainfall in its catchments. The storages have increased from under 50% (49.6%) in late May 2019. Today, Brisbane storage levels are now at 59.2%.</p>
<p>Melbourne residents use <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-sydney-residents-use-30-more-water-per-day-than-melburnians-117656" target="_blank">less water</a> than the other capital cities. In 2018 the average Melbourne resident used 161 litres per day, approximately 30% less than Sydney residents.</p>
<p>Melbourne’s supplies have also been supplemented with the reactivation of its Wonthaggi desalination plant in 2019. It is Australia’s largest desalination plant, capable of producing <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/media-releases/2019/desalinated-water-begins-flowing-to-secure-supplies" target="_blank">410 million litres a day</a>.</p>
<p>Brisbane also built a desalination plant after the Millennium Drought. In addition, they also made very large investments in Australia’s largest waste water recycling scheme. The <a href="https://www.seqwater.com.au/seq-water-grid" target="_blank">Western Corridor recycled water scheme</a> opened in 2008, cost $2.5 billion and features three advanced waste water treatment plants, with more than 200 km of pipelines and three advanced waste water treatment plants.</p>
<p>Hobart, Darwin and Canberra are the three Australian capital cities without desalination plants. Canberra has had a steady decline in its supply over three years. It was full in October 2016, gradually dropping to 51.6% in November 2019. Hobart’s storages were above 80% for most of the last six years. They were just above 90% 12 months ago and have since fallen to their current level of 72%.</p>
<p>Darwin’s water supply was full as recently as April 2018. Now, 18 months later, it is just touching 54%. This is its lowest level in six years. Darwin, our tropical capital, has the most seasonal rainfall of Australia’s capitals. Typically, they have almost no rain June to September during their dry season, and a wet season of <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-australian-monsoon-69411" target="_blank">heavy rains from October to April</a>. However, the last wet season was one of the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/revisiting-the-1952-northern-territory-missing-wet-season/10883534" target="_blank">driest on record</a>.</p>
<p>Adelaide’s water storage has fluctuated over the last six years. Adelaide gets more rain in winter and has dry summers, an opposite pattern to that of Darwin. Over the last three years the level has dropped from over 97% in October 2017 to just below 58%.</p>
<p>The desalination plant in Adelaide can supply up to 50% of its water supply. It has been operating in 2019, although not in the wetter months of July and August. The Murray also continues to supply a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-14/adelaide-desal-plant-revival-plan-to-ease-use-of-murray-water/10619960" target="_blank">large proportion</a> of Adelaide’s water supply. The Commonwealth has agreed to use drought funding for the Adelaide desalination plant, so more river water can be used by farmers upstream to <a href="https://watersource.awa.asn.au/business/assets-and-operations/sa-desal-plant-to-increase-production-as-part-of-drought-deal/" target="_blank">grow fodder for livestock</a>.</p>
<p>Australia is set for a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary" target="_blank">dryer and hotter summer than average</a>, particularly in the east. Coupled with continued high levels of household demand, we can expect further declines in water storage levels through the first half of 2020.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127909/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><strong>Ian Wright</strong>, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Science, Western Sydney University.</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Jason Reynolds</strong>, Research Lecturer in Geochemistry, Western Sydney University.</em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-drought-is-affecting-water-supply-in-australias-capital-cities-127909" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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