Victoria in Future 2015 report released

The State's primary population projection report was released last Friday and key amongst the more noteworthy numbers is Victoria's projected population, which is expected to hit 10 million people by 2051.

The Victoria in Future (VIF) 2015 report is the official State government projection of population and households with "Projections used by decision markets across government and in other areas" according to the opening pages of the report.

One of the key differences between the Victoria in Future report projections and official ABS Estimated Resident Projections is that the VIF report is more detailed geographically than the ABS equivalent. "The smallest areas in the ABS projections are the Capital City and Rest of State statistical areas. VIF 2015 provides projections of population and households for Victoria, Greater Melbourne, the eight SA4s in Victoria's Regions and the 79 Local Government Areas in Victoria".

In the year since the release of the prior Victoria in Future report, the underlying total population projection for the state in 2051 has changed only slightly: 10.008 million (2015 projection) versus 10.011 million (2014 projection).

For the Greater Melbourne Capital City Area - a.k.a. the metropolitan area - the latest VIF report projects the population will be:

  • in 2021: 5,078,400
  • in 2031: 5,982,800
  • in 2041: 6,893,900
  • in 2051: 7,849,400

The annual population change for Melbourne expressed as a percentage is projected to slowly decline over the coming decades:

  • 2011-2021: 2% change per annum
  • 2021-2031: 1.7% change per annum
  • 2031-2041: 1.4% change per annum
  • 2041-2501: 1.3% change per annum

In terms of breaking down the various Local Government Areas (LGA's) and looking at the population projections in greater detail, the VIF report only includes projections out to 2031. "Inner Melbourne" consists of the Cities of Melbourne, Port Phillip, Yarra, Stonnington and Maribyrnong. These chosen LGA's in 2011 had a combined population of 450,500. In 2021 they're projected to have a combined population of 611,300 and in 2031 the population is projected to be 734,300.

The projections for City of Port Phillip look set to change over time given that this LGA will be bearing the brunt of the population growth from Fishermans Bend. The VIF report has Port Phillip in 2011 with a population of 75,200 and projects the population in 2021 will be 117,700 and in 2031, 140,500; a little on the conservative side I would think.

There's a lot of lag when it comes to these projections but I'm willing to bet that future reports will probably increase the Port Phillip numbers markedly as the first projects in Fishermans Bend begin seeing residents move in.

You can view the report, FAQs and glossary on DELWP's website.

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