Aussie property recovery appears to be a Sydney-only affair: Pete Wargent

Pete WargentDecember 7, 2020

Knee-jerk reporting was always going to be an inevitable impact of more regular property data. Note how quarterly price data now appears to be cooling, except in Sydney.

Mildly amusing that commentators are now sanctimoniously warning buyers about paying too much in Sydney and Melbourne (well, this is obviously true in any market) - never mind that in 2012 they were still continuing to advise investors to buy in Adelaide instead of Sydney.

All the while, I posted my opinion that Sydney's inner/middle ring suburbs would smash records - and they will - Sydney median prices are already up by 13% in this cycle and are heading north by the day.

Adelaide dwelling price 'growth' is still in negative territory over the past year and comfortably below its previous peaks.

I'm not permanently down on Adelaide and despite its weak population growth I am prepared to change my view if the state unemployment rate falls well below 7%.

But not until there is clear evidence of sustained jobs growth in the state - currently jobs growth year on year is negative as compared to NSW where jobs growth has been very strong.

Low interest rates may gradually begin to see employment growth return but it has been a painfully slow five years for Adelaide.

Graph 3.20: Employment by State

How long before the mainstream media reporting shifts to: "It's a Sydney property boom only, folks"?

Two weeks, I reckon.

Source: RP Data


Pete Wargent
is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and blogger.

His new book 'Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel' was released on 1 September 2013.

 


Pete Wargent

Pete Wargent is the co-founder of BuyersBuyers.com.au, offering affordable homebuying assistance to all Australians, and a best-selling author and blogger.

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