Hobart could be the next property hotspot: John Lindeman
With Sydney and Melbourne slowing, where do you think the next property hotspot could be? Hobart?
Few analysts would take this suggestion seriously, but researcher John Lindeman has come up with the numbers to back the idea.
"With only 2 percent of the nation’s population, a sluggish economy, high unemployment and social issues, especially in the northern cites. Yet look at what took place back in 2004, after the last big housing boom in Sydney and Melbourne had cooled down."
"Where did all the investors go to buy? In Hobart, and according to official ABS housing data, house prices there jumped by 50 percent in one year."
John Lindeman says that Hobart’s median house price in 2003 was just one third that of Sydney, but after the boom year, it had risen to half. And where is it right now? Back to one third of Sydney’s median house price again.
"Of course, history doesn’t repeat itself, because the conditions are always different, but there is another way to check the potential for a Hobart housing boom, and that is by using our patented predictive methodology, which enables us to produce these pie charts showing the type of house market in each of Tasmania’s suburbs and towns a year ago, right now and the predicted change over the next year."
The legend indicates what the colour of each type of market means, with prices rising strongly in a “boom” market, falling heavily in a “stressed” market, and the other types performing in between these extremes, so that a “neutral” market indicates no price change.
The pie charts tell an interesting story – they reveal that one year ago, a third of Tasmania’s suburbs and towns had seller or boom types of markets and this has now grown to more than half, but even more significantly, the number of suburbs with growth is expected to include two thirds of the total during the forecast period, and one third will be boom markets.
Most of the current and predicted boom markets are in Hobart, and even though Launceston is not showing any signs of growth potential as yet, rises in price are expected to extend there as well over the next year or two. Hobart has a shortage of housing, it’s a city which is attractive and affordable for retirees and offers positive cash flow opportunities to investors. Ten years of little to no growth are set to end as mainland investors turn their sights to Tasmania.
Simon Pressley of www.propertyology.com.au is also betting on Hobart. “If we draw a line in the sand right now and cast our minds forward three years, of Australia’s eight capital city property markets my money is on Hobart being Australia’s best performer!"
"While other so-called experts were berating Tasmania’s basket-case economy, Propertyology gave Hobart our official green-light back in April 2014," he adds.